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Posts by Dark Wing

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  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    01/09/2015 10:58:26 AM PST · 4,881 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; All

    A key development to watch:


    Ebola blood testing kit fits in a suitcase and detects the virus 10 TIMES faster
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/technology/ebola-blood-testing-kit-fits-4946895
    Jan 09, 2015 Jasper Hamill

    German scientists have designed a super-efficient ebola testing kit which is so small it could be carried as hand luggage on an airline.

    The life-saving suitcase can detect traces of the deadly virus in just 15 minutes - which is almost 10 times faster than the current testing kit.

    It was designed by scientists at the German Primate Centre in Goettingen and is intended to be used by doctors battling the disease in rural areas of Africa.

    The suitcase works away from the mod-cons of a traditional testing lab, allowing a speedy diagnosis of the diease.

    Currently, blood samples must be transported over long distances to testing labs.

    With a death rate of up to 90% and quick treatment critical to chances of survival, any delay is likely to be lethal.

    Five of the suitcases are now being sent to Guinea, where the current outbreak is thought to have started.

    “The early detection of Ebola infected patients will lead to a more effective virus control since medical staff can identify and isolate confirmed Ebola cases more rapidly,” said Dr. Christiane Stahl-Hennig, head of the unit of infection models at the German Primate Centre.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    01/04/2015 4:22:17 PM PST · 4,878 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud; All

    It is not looking good for the UK nurse infected with Ebola.


    Hospital: UK nurse with Ebola now in critical condition

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/03/world/europe/uk-ebola-nurse/index.html

    Laura Smith-Spark January 3, 2015

    Pauline Cafferkey, 39, of Glasgow is the first person to have been diagnosed with the virus on UK soil.

    The Royal Free Hospital said her condition “has gradually deteriorated over the past two days and is now critical.”

    The hospital said Wednesday that Cafferkey had decided to have blood plasma treatment — using plasma from Ebola survivors — and to take an experimental antiviral drug.

    British Prime Minister David Cameron tweeted that his thoughts and prayers are with Cafferkey.

    The Royal Free Hospital is equipped with a high-level isolation unit where access is restricted to specially trained medical staff. A specially designed tent with controlled ventilation is over the patient’s bed.

    Another British volunteer nurse, William Pooley, was treated in the unit after his return home from Sierra Leone in August after being diagnosed with Ebola.

    British media outlets have said Cafferkey is a public health nurse who was part of a 30-strong team of medical volunteers deployed to Sierra Leone by the UK government last month in a joint endeavor with the charity Save the Children.

    Cafferkey traveled back from Sierra Leone via Casablanca, Morocco, and London Heathrow Airport before arriving at Glasgow Airport on a British Airways flight late on December 28, the health agency NHS Scotland said.

    After feeling unwell, she sought medical attention and was transferred to London on a military aircraft fitted with an isolation pod.

    Amid concerns about the possible spread of the disease, authorities have been working to contact all those who may have come into contact with Cafferkey as she traveled back to Scotland.

    What to know about Ebola

    Public Health England, a government agency, said it had contacted all 101 UK-based passengers and crew who flew from Casablanca to Heathrow, while its Scottish counterpart had reached all 71 passengers and crew members who traveled from Heathrow to Glasgow.

    “Passengers given advice & reassurance. Additional 31 international passengers being contacted by international public health authorities,” Public Health England said on Twitter.

    The government has said the risk of infection to other passengers is “considered extremely low.”

    The number of deaths in the three West African countries where the outbreak is centered has climbed to 7,989 as of December 31, the World Health Organization said Friday.

    There have been more than 20,000 confirmed, probable and suspected cases in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, the WHO said.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    01/01/2015 4:15:12 PM PST · 4,875 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; All

    If true, score one for Thud.

    Iraqi and Kurdish media are reporting an Ebola outbreak among ISIS forces.

    See:

    www.breitbart.com/ebola/2015/01/01/iraqi-and-kurdish-media-reports-isis-fighters-have-contracted-ebola/

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    12/30/2014 2:26:46 PM PST · 4,872 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud

    This is the BBC Take on the Glasgow Ebola case.

    Key information —

    Patient flight details - 28 December

    Flight AT596 from Freetown, Sierra Leone, to Casablanca

    Flight AT0800 from Casablanca to London Heathrow

    Flight BA1478 from London Heathrow to Glasgow, arriving 23:30

    The HCW was symptomatic on the flight.

    Now we get to see how good Algeria’s disease tracing system. is.


    Ebola case confirmed in Glasgow hospital
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-30628349
    29 December 2014

    A healthcare worker who has just returned from West Africa has been diagnosed with Ebola and is being treated in hospital in Glasgow.

    The woman, who arrived from Sierra Leone on Sunday night, is in isolation at Glasgow’s Gartnavel Hospital.

    All possible contacts with the case are being investigated, including on flights to Scotland via Heathrow.

    UK Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt confirmed that the woman would be taken to a specialist unit in London.

    She will be flown from Glasgow and taken to the Royal Free Hospital in north London “as soon as we possibly can,” Mr Hunt said.

    It is expected she will be transferred overnight by air ambulance.

    The hospital has a specialist isolation unit and treated William Pooley, the British nurse who contracted and recovered from Ebola.

    Low risk
    Mr Hunt said the government was doing “absolutely everything it needs to be” to keep the UK safe.

    He insisted NHS processes “worked well” after the woman starting exhibiting symptoms.

    The health secretary added: “We are also reviewing our procedures and protocols for all the other NHS workers who are working at the moment in Sierra Leone.”

    Nicola Sturgeon: Ebola risk ‘extremely low’

    Charity Save the Children confirmed the woman was an NHS health worker who was working with them at the Ebola Treatment Centre in Kerry Town, Sierra Leone.

    The organisation’s humanitarian director, Michael von Bertele, said: “Save the Children is working closely with the UK government, Scottish government and Public Health England to look into the circumstances surrounding the case.”

    At a news conference in Glasgow, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon stressed that the risk to the general public was very low.

    She added that the patient was thought to have had contact with only one other person since arriving in the city, but that all passengers on the flights the woman took will be traced.

    Ms Sturgeon said: “Apart from other passengers on the flights and obviously the hospital staff since this patient’s admittance to hospital, she, the patient is thought to have had contact with only one other person in Scotland since returning to Scotland last night and that person will also be contacted and given appropriate reassurance.”

    Glasgow Ebola case

    Patient flight details - 28 December

    Flight AT596 from Freetown, Sierra Leone, to Casablanca

    Flight AT0800 from Casablanca to London Heathrow

    Flight BA1478 from London Heathrow to Glasgow, arriving 23:30

    Reuters

    Alisdair MacConachie, of NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, said: “She’s being managed in an isolation facility by staff who are comfortable managing patients in such a situation. She herself is quite stable and is not showing any great clinical concern at the minute.”

    NHS Scotland said infectious diseases procedures had been put into effect at the Brownlee Unit for Infectious Diseases at Gartnavel.

    Ebola is transmitted by direct contact with the bodily fluids - such as blood, vomit or faeces - of an infected person.

    The patient returned to Scotland from Sierra Leone late on Sunday via Casablanca and London Heathrow, arriving into Glasgow Airport on a British Airways flight at about 23:30.

    While public health experts have emphasised that the risks are negligible, a telephone helpline has been set up for anyone who was on the BA 1478 Heathrow to Glasgow flight. The number is: 08000 858531

    The woman had been admitted to hospital early on Monday morning after feeling unwell and was placed into isolation at 07.50.

    The early symptoms are a sudden fever, muscle pain, fatigue, headache and sore throat.

    This is followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, a rash and bleeding - both internal and external - which can be seen in the gums, eyes, nose and in the stools.

    Patients tend to die from dehydration and multiple organ failure.

    A British Airways spokesman said: “We are working closely with the health authorities in England and Scotland and will offer assistance with any information they require.

    “The safety and security of our customers and crew is always our top priority and the risk to people on board that individual flight is extremely low.”

    Ms Sturgeon has chaired a meeting of the Scottish Government Resilience Committee (SGoRR) and has also spoken to Prime Minister David Cameron.

    Mr Hunt is to chair a meeting of the Cobra emergency committee on Monday evening.

    The patient had travelled from Freetown in Sierra Leone via Casablanca

    Ms Sturgeon said: “Our first thoughts at this time must be with the patient diagnosed with Ebola and their friends and family. I wish them a speedy recovery.

    “Scotland has been preparing for this possibility from the beginning of the outbreak in West Africa and I am confident that we are well prepared.”

    Professor Dame Sally Davies, Chief Medical Officer for England, said: “It is important to be reassured that although a case has been identified, the overall the risk to the public continues to be low.

    “We have robust, well-developed and well-tested NHS systems for managing unusual infectious diseases when they arise, supported by a wide range of experts. The UK system was prepared, and reacted as planned, when this case of Ebola was identified.”

  • There Was No Way a P-51 Could Replace the A-10

    12/17/2014 8:29:10 AM PST · 54 of 100
    Dark Wing to tanknetter

    >>There’s been considerable speculation over the years
    >>about why the USAF sent F-51s, as opposed to F-47
    >>Thunderbolts (which like the Mustang were still in
    >>service with ANG units) to Korea.

    The F-51 was cheaper to operate as a CAS plane, and the USAF Brass sold the remaining F-47N’s to the Nationalist Chinese.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    12/01/2014 1:45:08 PM PST · 4,831 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud

    A very scary report —


    Suspected Ebola patient isolated in Karachi

    http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2014/12/01/national/suspected-ebola-patient-isolated-in-karachi/?

    KARACHI-

    A suspected patient of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was quarantined on Monday in Karachi’s Jinnah Hospital, private media reported,

    The patient is reported to have recently arrived from Liberia, Africa.

    According to provincial health authorities, blood samples have been obtained from the isolated patient to test for EVD.

    Last week, a man was initially suspected of dying of EVD. However, World Health Organization later clarified that he was not suffering from the deadly disease but had died of Hepatitis C and Dengue fever.

    Ebola virus causes an acute, serious illness which is often fatal if untreated.

  • Can Oil Prices Drop to $40 a Barrel? Some Say It's Possible

    12/01/2014 7:45:44 AM PST · 38 of 63
    Dark Wing to Thud

    The Saudi’s are trying to kill Iran and Russia’s military budgets like they killed the Soviet Union’s in the late 1980’s.

    Since both are over extended in Ukraine and Syria respectively, it might even work.

  • Can Oil Prices Drop to $40 a Barrel? Some Say It's Possible

    12/01/2014 7:41:17 AM PST · 37 of 63
    Dark Wing to Thud

    The Saudi’s are trying to kill Iran and Russia’s military budgets like they killed the Soviet Union’s in the late 1980’s.

    Since both are over extended in Ukraine and Syria respectively, it might even work.

  • Saudi National Reportedly Crashes Car Containing Explosives Into US Army Post Fort Sam Houston

    11/24/2014 10:51:11 AM PST · 36 of 89
    Dark Wing to Thud

    This is too close to home.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/19/2014 7:33:52 AM PST · 4,806 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Dark Wing

    Okay, there seems to be a problem.

    Even auto-preview is showing a wall of text.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/19/2014 7:31:47 AM PST · 4,805 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Dark Wing
    Whoops... I don't know why the wall of text happened. I'll try this again -- ---- Ebola seemed out of control in Kansas City recently — not the disease itself, but rumors and anxious news reports about the deadly virus. http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article3654912.html ALAN BAVLEYTHE. 11/07/2014 On a recent Saturday, social media spread such fevered rumors of a suspected Ebola case at Research Medical Center that the hospital issued a news release the next day denying the reports. Not knowing of the hospital’s statement, the Kansas City Health Department held a news conference a day later to say the same thing: no Ebola here. A week later, rumors spread so far so fast about a patient in an isolation unit at the University of Kansas Hospital that the hospital felt compelled to hold a news conference hours after he was admitted. As a phalanx of TV crews broadcast live, the hospital’s chief medical officer said the patient was, indeed, being tested for Ebola but was at “low to moderate risk” of the disease. Within two days, tests showed he was Ebola-free. Similar false alarms have been happening across the country. Public health officials and news media are now trying to get the situation under control. The Kansas City Health Department started work this week with other local health departments on guidelines for reporting information about Ebola-related cases to the news media and public. The Associated Press recently told news organizations that it wasn’t going to routinely distribute stories about suspected Ebola cases. And on Wednesday, the Maryland health department announced that health officials and hospitals no longer will offer information or even acknowledge the presence of suspected Ebola cases until the disease is confirmed. “It’s important that we’re communicating as consistently as we can, sharing information the public needs,” said Kansas City Health Department Director Rex Archer. When misinformation spreads, it creates “inappropriate levels of fear that cause the public to overreact.” Archer met this week with area health departments to share ideas for uniform reporting guidelines. He hopes to get them all on board and then hospitals, as well. Archer said he was motivated by the “sum total of all the reporting going on around the country. It’s just a situation ripe for social media speculation and even pranks to cause the health care system to mobilize when it’s unnecessary.” Those stories started to appear as the Ebola epidemic in three West African nations began gaining international attention in recent months. But their exponential growth started last month, after Thomas Eric Duncan of Ebola-stricken Liberia was diagnosed with the disease at a Dallas hospital and two of his nurses also fell ill. Since then, unfounded stories have circulated widely: ▪ A young girl from Liberia became ill and was taken to a hospital in Dover, Del., where she was placed in isolation. She was quickly found to be free of Ebola. False alarm. ▪ The Inspira Medical Center in Woodbury, N.J., was rumored to have an Ebola patient under treatment. False. ▪ Workers at a Doritos factory tested positive for Ebola and infected thousands of bags of chips. Hoax. Maryland health officials are trying to take fuel out of Ebola combustion by limiting information they release to confirmed cases only. They’ve asked hospitals, which in some cases had been announcing patients being kept in isolation, to follow the same rules. “The public health is not served by repeated rumors about possible cases,” Albert Wu, a professor at the Johns Hopkins school of public health, told the Baltimore Sun. “I think it results only in whiplash and heightened anxiety.” But some experts say health officials and hospitals need to be more adaptable, especially now that social media can fill an information void with speculation, innuendo and false information. “You’re not looking to report out on any person being monitored or tested (for Ebola). That could be putting more fear and panic in the community than providing a public service,” said Chris Aldridge of the National Association of County and City Health Officials. “But once social media get hold of it, it takes on a life of its own. That may force you to take steps.” In such circumstances, disclosing information “shows you’re on top of things, and it can reassure the public that things are under control.” How much information gets released is a balancing act, Aldridge said, between a patient’s right to privacy and the public’s right to enough information to assess potential risks. When information about a patient is disclosed, it needs to be accompanied by a discussion of what the true risks to the public are, Aldridge said. Those risks are very small; the Ebola virus isn’t easy to catch, and infected people don’t pose a risk to others until they’ve developed symptoms, he said. Archer of the Kansas City Health Department thinks health authorities should tell the public about confirmed Ebola cases, but probably no more than the person’s sex and date of birth. It would be up to individual hospitals to disclose where patients were being treated. He also would release information about suspected cases, at least in situations where the patient may have been contagious and exposed people to the virus. Archer’s suggestions are still under discussion with other health departments. “I’m not saying we have 100 percent agreement,” he said. The Kansas and Missouri health departments have not issued specific guidelines for publicly reporting Ebola. Fraser Seitel, a partner at Rivkin & Associates, a health care communications firm specializing in crisis management, advises hospitals not to make announcements when they have suspected Ebola cases. “That could send panic through the community,” he said. “But we have to be sensitive that rumors are going to start and if news media start reporting it, you have to react. You have to staunch rumors quickly.” The University of Kansas Hospital found itself in a tough spot last month shortly after a man who had served as a medical officer on a commercial vessel off the west coast of Africa checked himself in before dawn with a high fever and other symptoms common to Ebola and other tropical diseases. Hospital officials said the patient’s family or a co-worker may have been the first to post something about him on social media that morning. By early afternoon, hospital spokeswoman Jill Chadwick had received a call from a local television station. After that, “it spread like a grass fire. It was amazing,” Chadwick said. Within minutes, the hospital’s public relations department had heard from CNN, National Public Radio and Al Jazeera. Lee Norman, the hospital’s chief medical officer, faced the assembled reporters and photographers that evening. “We had no intention to go public with this gentleman,” he said this week. “It becomes a crisis of confidence if we were to simply clam up and say, ‘No comment.’ That would just feed the fire.” Tests soon found the patient was Ebola-free. The fire was out. Karl Stark is the health and science editor of the Philadelphia Inquirer and president of the Association of Health Care Journalists. He believes that “good information is the best treatment for the anxiety caused by the media. So public health authorities should be as forthcoming as possible.” But suspected Ebola cases often aren’t worth a news story, he said. “First of all, positive results have been rare in the U.S. We had over 100 people being monitored for Ebola symptoms in Pennsylvania at one time, and none of them ended up testing positive. A steady drumbeat of stories on suspected cases would have ... needlessly stoked public hysteria.” Stark suggests that journalists “put the Ebola epidemic in perspective. Flu kills 36,000 Americans a year. ... There is so far one Ebola fatality on U.S. soil.” A clear perspective about Ebola will be essential in the months ahead. “I can only see this getting more difficult as we go into flu season, where the symptoms of flu mimic Ebola,” Archer said. Comment You can't tell people what they should or should not be worried about. That just does not work. Any perception that the authorities are hiding something will make things worse. Health departments should have a clear policy that they communicate to the public with an emphasis on providing as much information as is reasonable. For example, stating the number of people being monitored; the number who have been tested; the number who are under quarantine; the number who have been hospitalized in daily reports would do much to allay concerns about transparency. If Ebola is truly coming under control in West Africa, then the frequency of exported cases will drop, hopefully to zero. However, if we have even a single additional unannounced case, and the release of information is perceived to be slow, public confidence will be hard to regain. _________________
  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/19/2014 7:25:36 AM PST · 4,804 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud
    This is one of the latest post to the "Suspect or Quarantined 'New Ebola' Cases" thread at PFIF with the comment from the poster placed at the top. A comment I agree with, BTW. ----------- Comment You can't tell people what they should or should not be worried about. That just does not work. Any perception that the authorities are hiding something will make things worse. Health departments should have a clear policy that they communicate to the public with an emphasis on providing as much information as is reasonable. For example, stating the number of people being monitored; the number who have been tested; the number who are under quarantine; the number who have been hospitalized in daily reports would do much to allay concerns about transparency. If Ebola is truly coming under control in West Africa, then the frequency of exported cases will drop, hopefully to zero. However, if we have even a single additional unannounced case, and the release of information is perceived to be slow, public confidence will be hard to regain. --------------------- Ebola seemed out of control in Kansas City recently — not the disease itself, but rumors and anxious news reports about the deadly virus. http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article3654912.html ALAN BAVLEYTHE. 11/07/2014 On a recent Saturday, social media spread such fevered rumors of a suspected Ebola case at Research Medical Center that the hospital issued a news release the next day denying the reports. Not knowing of the hospital’s statement, the Kansas City Health Department held a news conference a day later to say the same thing: no Ebola here. A week later, rumors spread so far so fast about a patient in an isolation unit at the University of Kansas Hospital that the hospital felt compelled to hold a news conference hours after he was admitted. As a phalanx of TV crews broadcast live, the hospital’s chief medical officer said the patient was, indeed, being tested for Ebola but was at “low to moderate risk” of the disease. Within two days, tests showed he was Ebola-free. Similar false alarms have been happening across the country. Public health officials and news media are now trying to get the situation under control. The Kansas City Health Department started work this week with other local health departments on guidelines for reporting information about Ebola-related cases to the news media and public. The Associated Press recently told news organizations that it wasn’t going to routinely distribute stories about suspected Ebola cases. And on Wednesday, the Maryland health department announced that health officials and hospitals no longer will offer information or even acknowledge the presence of suspected Ebola cases until the disease is confirmed. “It’s important that we’re communicating as consistently as we can, sharing information the public needs,” said Kansas City Health Department Director Rex Archer. When misinformation spreads, it creates “inappropriate levels of fear that cause the public to overreact.” Archer met this week with area health departments to share ideas for uniform reporting guidelines. He hopes to get them all on board and then hospitals, as well. Archer said he was motivated by the “sum total of all the reporting going on around the country. It’s just a situation ripe for social media speculation and even pranks to cause the health care system to mobilize when it’s unnecessary.” Those stories started to appear as the Ebola epidemic in three West African nations began gaining international attention in recent months. But their exponential growth started last month, after Thomas Eric Duncan of Ebola-stricken Liberia was diagnosed with the disease at a Dallas hospital and two of his nurses also fell ill. Since then, unfounded stories have circulated widely: ▪ A young girl from Liberia became ill and was taken to a hospital in Dover, Del., where she was placed in isolation. She was quickly found to be free of Ebola. False alarm. ▪ The Inspira Medical Center in Woodbury, N.J., was rumored to have an Ebola patient under treatment. False. ▪ Workers at a Doritos factory tested positive for Ebola and infected thousands of bags of chips. Hoax. Maryland health officials are trying to take fuel out of Ebola combustion by limiting information they release to confirmed cases only. They’ve asked hospitals, which in some cases had been announcing patients being kept in isolation, to follow the same rules. “The public health is not served by repeated rumors about possible cases,” Albert Wu, a professor at the Johns Hopkins school of public health, told the Baltimore Sun. “I think it results only in whiplash and heightened anxiety.” But some experts say health officials and hospitals need to be more adaptable, especially now that social media can fill an information void with speculation, innuendo and false information. “You’re not looking to report out on any person being monitored or tested (for Ebola). That could be putting more fear and panic in the community than providing a public service,” said Chris Aldridge of the National Association of County and City Health Officials. “But once social media get hold of it, it takes on a life of its own. That may force you to take steps.” In such circumstances, disclosing information “shows you’re on top of things, and it can reassure the public that things are under control.” How much information gets released is a balancing act, Aldridge said, between a patient’s right to privacy and the public’s right to enough information to assess potential risks. When information about a patient is disclosed, it needs to be accompanied by a discussion of what the true risks to the public are, Aldridge said. Those risks are very small; the Ebola virus isn’t easy to catch, and infected people don’t pose a risk to others until they’ve developed symptoms, he said. Archer of the Kansas City Health Department thinks health authorities should tell the public about confirmed Ebola cases, but probably no more than the person’s sex and date of birth. It would be up to individual hospitals to disclose where patients were being treated. He also would release information about suspected cases, at least in situations where the patient may have been contagious and exposed people to the virus. Archer’s suggestions are still under discussion with other health departments. “I’m not saying we have 100 percent agreement,” he said. The Kansas and Missouri health departments have not issued specific guidelines for publicly reporting Ebola. Fraser Seitel, a partner at Rivkin & Associates, a health care communications firm specializing in crisis management, advises hospitals not to make announcements when they have suspected Ebola cases. “That could send panic through the community,” he said. “But we have to be sensitive that rumors are going to start and if news media start reporting it, you have to react. You have to staunch rumors quickly.” The University of Kansas Hospital found itself in a tough spot last month shortly after a man who had served as a medical officer on a commercial vessel off the west coast of Africa checked himself in before dawn with a high fever and other symptoms common to Ebola and other tropical diseases. Hospital officials said the patient’s family or a co-worker may have been the first to post something about him on social media that morning. By early afternoon, hospital spokeswoman Jill Chadwick had received a call from a local television station. After that, “it spread like a grass fire. It was amazing,” Chadwick said. Within minutes, the hospital’s public relations department had heard from CNN, National Public Radio and Al Jazeera. Lee Norman, the hospital’s chief medical officer, faced the assembled reporters and photographers that evening. “We had no intention to go public with this gentleman,” he said this week. “It becomes a crisis of confidence if we were to simply clam up and say, ‘No comment.’ That would just feed the fire.” Tests soon found the patient was Ebola-free. The fire was out. Karl Stark is the health and science editor of the Philadelphia Inquirer and president of the Association of Health Care Journalists. He believes that “good information is the best treatment for the anxiety caused by the media. So public health authorities should be as forthcoming as possible.” But suspected Ebola cases often aren’t worth a news story, he said. “First of all, positive results have been rare in the U.S. We had over 100 people being monitored for Ebola symptoms in Pennsylvania at one time, and none of them ended up testing positive. A steady drumbeat of stories on suspected cases would have ... needlessly stoked public hysteria.” Stark suggests that journalists “put the Ebola epidemic in perspective. Flu kills 36,000 Americans a year. ... There is so far one Ebola fatality on U.S. soil.” A clear perspective about Ebola will be essential in the months ahead. “I can only see this getting more difficult as we go into flu season, where the symptoms of flu mimic Ebola,” Archer said.
  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/19/2014 7:21:00 AM PST · 4,803 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Dark Wing

    This is Pixie’s first post to the new Ebola thread over on PFIF —


    There’s some evidence that authorities may have already pretty much “jumped the shark” on identifying travelers as being suspect New Ebola cases.

    A good number of people are being placed in isolation as suspect cases after traveling from the affected areas. Some of these people seem to truly exhibit symptoms which might be characteristic of the disease. Some seem to have no more than a headache and slight fever.

    For every case that reaches the media, there are likely more than a few that we will never hear about which were under investigation. Because we are hearing of cases only randomly, and because so little information is released about them, there is very little way of determining which are the most important cases or even if we are hearing about those particular cases at all.

    In order to keep the News thread focused on events, we will move reports of suspect New Ebola cases to this thread. Most (so far) will test negative. Many people being tested and even isolated do not even meet the current case definition for New Ebola at which times authorities say they are testing and isolating “out of an abundance of caution.”

    When a case tests positive, we will move it to the News thread.

    If a case seems particularly notable or authorities seem particularly disingenuous about it (I’m looking at you, Saudi Arabia..) in that case we can also copy it to the News thread as worthy of further examination and debate.

    Most suspect cases, though, will be followed up with the report that the test came back with a negative. Since that is non-news, these cases are probably better off being corralled here. The numbers of travelers tested, and the numbers of negatives, are going to rise in tandem with the increase in positive cases. What I’m trying to avoid is extra “noise” on the News thread.

    One of these cases will likely eventually prove positive, and will likely have transmitted on his or her journey. That will, (as with Mr. Sawyer), again be news.

    It will also be interesting to be able to see all these suspect cases together to see if there are any trends in speed of testing, symptoms which raise suspicion, and the treatment by medical and public health officials of the suspect cases.
    _________________

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/19/2014 7:19:46 AM PST · 4,802 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud

    Please note that the Pandemic Flu Information forum (PFIF) now has a separate “Suspect or Quarantined ‘New Ebola’ Cases” thread that folks here should monitor.

    See:

    http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=5749

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/19/2014 7:16:31 AM PST · 4,801 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud

    This article from the PFIF makes clear that Liberia is in no way “Bending the Curve” on Ebola.

    Outside the Liberian government’s writ in Monrovia, people are ignoring the Health Ministry and simply burying their Ebola dead in secret.

    We can expect a huge wave of new infections in Liberia after Thanksgiving.


    Liberia: Secret Night Burials - Liberia’s Health Ministry Alarms Growing

    http://allafrica.com/stories/201411190768.html
    Stephen D. Kollie

    The Ministry of Health of and Social Welfare has raise a serious alarm over the refusal of people allowing their dead ones to be buried with dignity by health officials but rather, many family members have begun carrying out secret burials at night in their various communities.

    Speaking to reporters Tuesday at the Ministry of Information regular Ebola press briefing, Assistant Health Minister Tolbert Nyenswah disclosed that the time is not certified yet for Liberians to return to their usual cultural practices and that an attempt to do so will lead the nation to a dangerous trajectory.

    Said Minister Nyenswah: “People are in the night burying secretly being unsafe and they bury these people without any safety. They are not trained to do that and we have health workers that could bury safely with the dignity that is required for the family people. We regret a lot for the loved ones that we lost during this crisis and we are also feeling it to the extent that people cannot perform the rituals, the traditional practices that we all used to perform. But the time is not certified yet for us to revert to those practices when we still having active transmission of the disease.”

    The Assistant Health Minister noted that the Ministry is still recording 20-50 new Ebola suspected cases on a daily basis across the country, suggesting that there is active transmission of the Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

    Health workers infected

    The Minister expressed shock that in the past weeks there were low infections in health care workers, but of recent, the situation has changed with more health care workers beginning to get infected again with the Ebola Virus Disease. He many of the health workers that are getting infected are either treating sick patients at home or in the private health facilities in the country.

    “Common example is in Jenewonde where we visited over the weekend and we noticed that a vaccinator who was not working at the clinic in Jenewonde got infected from the Ebola virus disease, refused to come to any ETU and died in the community infecting other people in the home,” the Minister said.

    Ebola base in Monrovia

    Minister Nyenswah also revealed that the highest number of Ebola ceases is now being reported from Monrovia and that the capital is actively infecting other leeward counties. He said the current hotspots of outbreak in the rest of the fifteen counties are cases that originates from Monrovia

    Minister Nyenswah said: “We want to sound this warning especially to our people in the leeward counties that don’t take sick strangers at this time and even if somebody goes into your village, into your community or county, make sure you keep active surveillance on that individual and report that to the county health team so that we can properly follow up that person. And traditional healers also should be careful of people leaving from Monrovia going to the leeward counties for healing when we have ETUs that could accept them.”

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/17/2014 2:32:05 PM PST · 4,797 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud

    This is worth posting in its entirety from the PFIF.


    http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/11/14/patient-cured-ebola-in-ger
    A Ugandan man hospitalized in Germany for the Ebola virus was treated with a biofiltration device that the creators believe will change the landscape in the fight against viral pathogens.

    The Aethlon Medical team has created a device called the Hemopurifier, which works on the established infrastructure of dialysis machines already located in hospitals and clinics.

    “It works within a dialysis machine, but the mechanism selectively targets viral pathogens and immunosuppressive toxins that they release,” James Joyce, the CEO of Aethlon Medical, told FoxNews.com.

    The Hemopurifier is an extracorporeal biofiltration device that converges hollow-fiber filtration technology with immobilized affinity agents to allow for the rapid physical removal of virus and soluble viral glycoproteins from the blood. It mimics the natural immune system response for clearance of circulating virus and viral toxins before cells and organs can be infected, according to Joyce.
    The patient was administered hemotherapy treatment for more than six hours and had no adverse effects.

    The physicians measured data points related to the treatment. The patient was monitored for changes in viral load, with the hope being for a reduction. Before treatment, the viral load was measured at 400,000 copies per milliliter for the Ebola virus. At the end of treatment physicians measured a reduction to only 1,000 copies per milliliter for Ebola.

    The patient is now free of the virus.

    The FDA has approved an investigational device exemption for the Hemopurifier, which the creators see as an advancement of feasible studies in relation to use of the device in the U.S.

    “You can’t recruit patients for obvious humanitarian reasons, so you’re limited to demonstrations of safety,” Joyce said. “In our case we can conduct replicative studies to demonstrate the ability to eliminate the targeted virus in a closed loop,” he said.

    The company has run clinical trials overseas in patients with Hepatitis C and HIV.

    The creators believe what sets the Hemopurifier apart from treatments currently available is that it doesn’t add any additional drugs to a patient’s therapy.

    “A big challenge we will be dealing with is drug resistance,” Joyce said. “Drug resistance connotes that the patient is no longer responding to drug therapy, and we believe we can apply this treatment in combination with drug therapies and allow patients to continue to benefit from therapeutic drug therapies.”

    “Think about how fast the Ebola virus can replicate, and at a certain point in the disease there’s a great advantage to single therapy [treatment]” Joyce said.

    The World Health Organization reports that more than 5,000 people have died from the Ebola virus, and that it has infected more than 14,000.


    PFIF Comment-This sounds very promising. But I remember from previous articles that any type of dialysis puts HCW at risk of ebola transmission.

  • Lawsuit by Career ICE Attorney Exposes Obama Anti-Enforcement Campaign{Purge Law Abiding Officers}

    11/13/2014 10:34:38 AM PST · 7 of 14
    Dark Wing to Thud

    This is something to think about.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/12/2014 7:03:37 AM PST · 4,778 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud

    Things are getting worse in Mali, a next door state to Guinea.

    From the PFIF, with a comment from a contributor there.


    The story below indicates that a patient the nurse worked on has died and been confirmed as well. So I’m coming up with 4 deaths from this cluster so far. The imam, someone who stayed the same house as him in Bamako, the nurse, and a patient he/she treated. Also one suspected, a doctor who treated the imam.

    Mali reports 2 new Ebola deaths

    Baba Ahmed, Associated Press 8:31 a.m. EST November 12, 2014

    http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/world/2014/11/12/mali-ebola-deaths/18903143/

    BAMAKO, Mali (AP) — Malian authorities on Wednesday reported two new deaths from Ebola that are not believed to be linked to the nation’s only other known case, an alarming setback as Mali tries to limit the epidemic ravaging other countries in the region.

    The announcement in this city of about 2 million came just a day after Malian health authorities said there had been no other reported cases — let alone deaths — after a 2-year-old girl who had traveled to Mali from Guinea succumbed to the virus in late October.

    A nurse working at a clinic in the capital of Bamako died Tuesday, and tests later showed she had Ebola, Communications Minister Mahamadou Camara said Wednesday. A patient she had treated died on Monday and was later confirmed to have had the disease as well.

    The patient — a Guinean national — came to the Clinique Pasteur on Oct. 25 late at night and was so ill he could not speak or give information about his symptoms, said the head of the clinic.

    “His family did not give us all the information that would have led us to suspect Ebola,” Dramane Maiga told The Associated Press.

    Government health officials were slow to act, Maiga said. The nurse was hospitalized on Saturday and hospital officials did not call the health ministry until Monday morning. Health officials did not arrive at the clinic until 6 p.m. and by the time the test results came back, the 25-year-old nurse was already dead, said Maiga.

    The new Ebola cases come just as public health officials started to think Mali had avoided the worst. The cases are stark reminders that the disease is hard to track and the entire West Africa region remains vulnerable as long as there are cases anywhere.

    Nearly 5,000 people have died this year in the region from the virus, which first erupted in Guinea, on Mali’s border.

    Mali’s first case initially caused alarm because officials said the toddler was bleeding from her nose as she traveled with relatives by public transport from Guinea to Mali, passing through Bamako and other towns en route to the western city of Kayes, where she died. Ebola is transmitted through the bodily fluids of people who are showing symptoms, which include bleeding, vomiting and diarrhea.

    On Tuesday, officials said nearly 30 members of a family that was visited by the sick 2-year-old girl have been released from a 21-day quarantine after they showed no symptoms of the disease. Ebola can take up to 21 days to incubate.

    About 50 other people who had possible contact with the girl remain under observation in Kayes, 375 miles from Bamako. They will be released from quarantine on Nov. 16 if they don’t show symptoms.

  • It's Over: Texas' Ebola Outbreak Has Ended

    11/08/2014 6:32:54 AM PST · 33 of 36
    Dark Wing to Oldeconomybuyer

    Five percent of those who develop Ebola do so after the 21 day monitoring period.

    That is why the WHO states it takes 43 days to officially declare an outbreak at an end.

  • Fury: The Mother of all Tank Movies

    11/07/2014 5:42:11 PM PST · 69 of 74
    Dark Wing to nascarnation
    This is the best review of DEATH TRAPS I have seen, also from “Chieftain”

    http://forum.worldoftanks.com/index.php?/topic/395038-rants-and-death-traps/

    Here's the issue: Death Traps is a memoir, not a researched historical work. These are the recollections and perceptions as the man saw them, recited some 50 years after the fact. This leads us to two problems:

    Firstly, that of perception. The premise of the book, even the title, is that M4s were rolling coffins, and got destroyed a lot. He gets this impression by looking at all the M4s which got brought back to his maintenance shop for repair after getting knocked out. He did not get to see any of the German vehicles which were knocked out, as nobody brought them to him for repair. He did not get to see the M4s which won the battle, as nobody brought them to him for repair. As someone who saw nearly nothing but destroyed Shermans coming out of battles, it is not unreasonable to come to the perception that the tank was problematic.

    Secondly, the author makes no attempt to distinguish what he saw from what he surmised, from what he heard through the grapevine. He presents as fact things which simply were not true, demonstrably so in many cases. No attempt was made to provide a source or reference to some of the claims he makes. It is up to the reader to make his or her personal determination as to the accuracy of anything in the book.

    It is likely that the things he personally saw are somewhat close to fact. But statements about machinations seven pay grades higher than him and several hundred miles away are a little more suspect.

    Cooper's book is probably the most egregious example of citing a memoir and making more of it than one should, so I merely use it as a learning point. Less controversial memoirs, such as Carius’ Tigers in the Mud or Loza’s Commanding the Red Army's Sherman Tanks should be viewed just as much from the same lens, but in fairness to them, they suffer from far less overreach and can be taken far more at face value.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/07/2014 3:11:42 PM PST · 4,749 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud; Smokin' Joe; PA Engineer; Black Agnes; exDemMom; Tilted Irish Kilt
    >>I tend to agree with Dark Wing that Ebola might spread to
    >>the Islamic areas of Nigeria.

    I view this as a given.

    This is what Islamic terrorist death lovers go for.

    >>I do agree with him that, if it spreads to Boko Haram
    >>controlled areas of Nigeria, it likely will spread to
    >>Mali and Niger plus, worse, the ISIS-controlled areas of
    >>Syria and Iraq plus very likely the Taliban-dominated
    >>areas of Pakistan.

    There are also a number of defacto areas of Islamist control and spread in the drug and gun trade between Africa/Mid-East and South America.

    >>Given the aversion of Islamic extremists to vaccination,
    >>that should become, eventually, a self-solving problem,
    >>but not before mandatory mass anti-Ebola vaccinations
    >>become necessary in large areas outside West Africa.

    Think of South American narco-terrorists as a possible vector for Ebola or the future diseases you are afraid of, Thud.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/06/2014 12:52:42 PM PST · 4,726 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud; Smokin' Joe; PA Engineer; Black Agnes; exDemMom; Tilted Irish Kilt
    Boko Haram terrorists in Nigeria and the continuing spread of Ebola in West Africa represent a unique international security threat that the West is ill suited to deal with.

    This is an issue on two levels.

    1. Boko Haram does not believe in western medicine and won't allow in any future Nigerian Ebola vaccination campaign into areas they control.

    2. While #1 seems something of a self-solving problem, the real issue is that however Boko Haram gets access. They are going to spread Ebola to both their friends and enemies.

    That threat is going to make the administration of Ebola vaccine universal in 3rd world countries that have or are adjacent to any such Muslim jihadi controlled territory.

    There are pluses and minuses to this.

    Big Pharma will make money on Ebola vaccines.

    The USA will get to use the vaccine with the least side effects to inoculate its military and as many Americans who are willing and able to pay for it, whatever the Federal Public health bureaucracy, the FDA or even the D.E.A. has to say about it.

    And we also know that the rich elites yo-yo's who are not vaccinating their kids for Polio and Whooping Cough in Deep Blue urban areas won't do so for Ebola either.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/06/2014 12:33:03 PM PST · 4,724 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud; Smokin' Joe

    What a headline!

    And what an issue for illegal immigration hawks!


    Ebola scare on Canary Island nudist beach after migrants from Sierra Leone arrive on boat with fever and are taken away by dump truck in front of terrified tourists

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2823883/Ebola-scare-Canary-Island-nudist-beach-migrants-Sierra-Leone-arrive-boat-fever-taken-away-dumped-truck-terrified-tourists.html

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    11/04/2014 12:52:59 PM PST · 4,705 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe

    This is a scary graphic when you think of a sneezing Ebola sufferer.

    Ever wondered what happens when you sneeze on a plane? Alarming graphics reveal how one person can spread germs throughout the WHOLE cabin

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2820596/How-person-sneezing-middle-plane-spreads-cabin.html

  • Fury: The Mother of all Tank Movies

    11/04/2014 12:27:25 PM PST · 68 of 74
    Dark Wing to SampleMan

    For those interesting in what actual WW2 Armor officers thought of the Sherman and much else, see the following:

    Maneuver Center of Excellence (MCoE) Libraries
    MCoE HQ
    Donovan Research Library
    Armor School Student Papers

    http://www.benning.army.mil/library/content/Virtual/Armorpapers/index.htm

    There are papers there from WW2 through Korea (with one for the French in Vietnam).

  • Fury: The Mother of all Tank Movies

    11/03/2014 2:55:09 PM PST · 55 of 74
    Dark Wing to Basil Duke

    >>Many consider the Panther to be the finest medium tank
    >>produced by any country in the entire war.

    The French opinion of the Panther versus Sherman debate can be seen in their decision to send the American military aide delivered M36 Tank Destroyers to Vietnam — to counter Soviet IS-2’s in Chinese hands on the border — rather than sending the Panther’s they had in service at the time.

    The Panther was a great mobile tank destroyer, but it had crappy operational mobility without a huge amount of support. Something that the Sherman derived, 90mm high velocity gun armed, M36 had in great measure with minimal support...just the ticket for operations in Vietnam.

  • Fury: The Mother of all Tank Movies

    11/03/2014 2:47:09 PM PST · 54 of 74
    Dark Wing to SampleMan

    >>The Tiger was a great defensive tank, but that didn’t
    >>make it a good weapon choice. It was too large and too
    >>heavy for the infrastructure of the day, making it hard
    >>to move across a simple creek.

    Umm..no.

    The Tiger 1 or Panzer Mark VI was BREAKTHROUGH TANK.

    It was designed to assault a densely packed anti-tank gun line, take hits from high velocity 50 mm and below AT guns or 76 mm medium velocity field guns on its front and side armor, and destroy the guns who took the shots with an 88mm dual purpose high velocity gun.

    It was meant as a specialist weapon to get Mark III and Mark IV panzers.

    It has a run of early 1942 through early 1944 in it intended role.

    Then the Russians deployed the 85mm high velocity gun as high velocity 100mm, medium velocity 122mmm, low velocity 152mm guns on various tanks and other AFV’s as big cat killers and it was game over for the Tiger 1.

  • Fury: The Mother of all Tank Movies

    11/03/2014 2:39:46 PM PST · 52 of 74
    Dark Wing to nascarnation

    >>Have you read “Death Traps” by Belton Cooper?

    I own it and have read it. Cooper is great in telling stories of his own service.

    Not so much regards his writing on Patton, the poor gun power of the Sherman and the delay in getting the M26 Pershing...not so much.

    See these for the “Sherman versus Panther/Big Cat scandal”

    The Chieftain’s Hatch: US Guns, German Armour, Pt 1
    http://worldoftanks.com/en/news/pc-browser/21/chieftains-hatch-us-guns-vs-german-armour-part-1/

    The Chieftain’s Hatch: US Guns, German Armour, Pt 2
    http://worldoftanks.com/en/news/pc-browser/21/us-guns-german-armor-part-2/

    See these regards the Pershing:

    Pershing Production Pt1
    http://forum.worldoftanks.asia/index.php?/topic/36449-pershing-production-pt1/

    The Chieftain’s Hatch: Pershing, Pt2
    http://worldoftanks.com/en/news/pc-browser/21/The_Chieftains_Hatch_Pershing_2/

  • Fury: The Mother of all Tank Movies

    11/03/2014 12:12:10 PM PST · 42 of 74
    Dark Wing to Dark Wing

    A bit of FURY irony from the G104 Sherman tank collector’s newsgroup on Yahoo —

    G104@yahoogroups.com

    “Ironically, not an M4A3 in the set, which is what would have most likely been serving at that time in the US Army.”


    Adrian Barrell, whose M4A4 was used in the movie, posted the following on Missing-Lynx a few days ago:

    “Fury is an M4A2(76)HVSS

    Matador is an M4(105)HVSS with a 76mm turret and gun and re-engined with a Mercedes diesel. It also has part M4 engine decks and doubled as Fury when the Tank Museums Sherman died on set.

    Old Phyllis is an M4A1(76)

    Lucy Sue is an M4A2

    Murder Inc is my M4A4 (Adrian’s)

    There were also two more M4A4s, a Grizzly and an M4(105)HVSS for various scenes.”


    Sherman tank note:

    The M4 and M4A1 had a gasoline fueled radial aircraft engine. These were the primary US Army Sherman through the summer of 1944. The M4 had welded hull armor and the M4A1 had cast hulls.

    The M4A2 had a pair of diesel engine on a common drive shaft. They were used by the USMC and the Russians via lend lease.

    The M4A3 had a 450 HP Ford eight cylinder gasoline engine. It was lend lease to the British but became the primary US Army Sherman after the Summer of 1944.

    The M4A4 was a Sherman that had five car engine mounted together to feed the same drive shaft. It was a Lend lease only tank and the British were its primary users.

    A notation like this: “M4(76)W HVSS”

    Would be for a late production M4 radial engine powered Sherman armed with a 76mm gun, having “horizontal volute suspension” with 24 inch wide tracks, and 76 mm gun ammunition stored in anti-freeze and water filled (”W” for “wet”) jackets.

  • Fury: The Mother of all Tank Movies

    11/03/2014 11:57:26 AM PST · 39 of 74
    Dark Wing to w1n1

    For those looking for hard core tank enthusiast evaluations of the Movie FURY with historical backgrounds, check out the following links from the World of Tanks electronic game web site —

    Chieftain’s Hatch - Fury: Battling German Die-Hards
    http://worldoftanks.com/en/news/pc-browser/21/hatch-fury-battling-german-die-hards/

    The Chieftain’s Hatch: Fury’s Tiger Standoff
    http://worldoftanks.com/en/news/pc-browser/21/TCH_Fury_Sherman_Tiger/

    The Chieftain’s Hatch: Creating “Fury”
    http://worldoftanks.com/en/news/pc-browser/21/The_Chieftains_Hatch_Fury/

    And for a further background on German Panther tanks versus M4 Sherman’s, see:

    The Chieftain’s Hatch: French Panthers
    http://worldoftanks.com/en/news/pc-browser/21/chieftains-hatch-french-panthers/

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/31/2014 7:57:53 AM PDT · 4,642 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Shelayne; Smokin' Joe; Thud; exDemMom; PA Engineer; Black Agnes
    >>The patient is a male and, being classified as low risk
    >>and being held at OSU Medical Center in Tulsa. Testing is
    >>currently underway and there is no time frame on when the
    >>results of the tests will be announced, the Tulsa Health
    >>Department said.

    Odds are that this man was one of the Frontier Airlines flight passengers that Nurse Vinson exposed.

    If he in fact does have Ebola, we will have a confirmed Ebola fomite spread on an airline from an active Ebola case.

    The timing is such that it if it is a Ebola case, the news will break just before/on election day.

    That will certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons for Pres Obama and the CDC.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/30/2014 7:08:17 AM PDT · 4,624 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud; Smokin' Joe; PA Engineer; Black Agnes; ElenaM; exDemMom
    We have a massive game changer test for Ebola about to come on-line.

    See:

    http://www.newsweek.com/new-pocket-sized-blotter-test-can-detect-ebola-strains-just-30-minutes-280533?piano_t=1

    “Ebola strains can be detected in just 30 minutes outside of the lab by a test that uses pocket-sized slips of blotting paper, a pioneering study revealed today.

    By manipulating the genetic machinery of cells and embedding them in the fine matrix of paper, a prototype Ebola test has been developed using just $20 of materials.“

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/29/2014 2:26:24 PM PDT · 4,614 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Covenantor
    “The waterfall effect of determined runners will also increase exponentially.”

    Mass illegal movement of people to Europe is already happening for reasons unrelated to Ebola. The addition ot Ebola to that mass in the next three months is why Cameron is taking the PR hit removing the Royal Navy from the EU patrols now.

    Over 100,000 have crossed from Africa to Europe in the last 12 monthsp>

    At those rates, there will be a flow of people on the order of 25,000 in which your "Cascade of Ebola runners" are going to be among in the next 90 days.

    See photos at the article link —

    Miliband accuses Cameron of lacking ‘basic humanity’ for refusing to help ‘drowning people’ fleeing Africa on ramshackle boats

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2812539/Miliband-accuses-Cameron-lacking-basic-humanity-refusing-help-drowning-people-fleeing-Africa-ramshackle-boats.html

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/29/2014 2:07:45 PM PDT · 4,612 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud; ElenaM; PA Engineer; exDemMom; Black Agnes; RinaseaofDs; Covenantor
    >Face Palm<

    Doesn't anyone in the White house realize what one of those health care workers coming down with Ebola means in terms of Administration credibility if they pop an infection before election day?

    Not to mention the possibility of “Acting President Biden” if Obama goes into quarentine?


    Obama holds photo op with doctors who worked in west Africa — and who are still in the Ebola monitoring period

    http://hotair.com/archives/2014/10/29/obama-holds-photo-op-with-doctors-who-worked-in-west-africa-and-who-are-still-in-the-ebola-monitoring-period/

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/29/2014 1:25:03 PM PDT · 4,607 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud
    Thud,

    “Ask me for anything but time.”

    Vaccines in March 2015 won't bring in the West African harvest now or distribute the imported relief food for which there is no transportation or infrastructure. Assuming they work, which most/all won't. Please see similar efforts with AIDS, for which there is still no vaccine decades later.

    And even if you get both transportation and vaccine refrigeration, people unwilling to get in a ETU will be even more unwilling to have a foreign soldier stick them with a vaccine.

    The tyranny of logistics — refrigeration for vaccines — and West African societal collapse means the outbreak won't stop until a vaccinated Nigerian Army chases down the last Ebola exposed West African.

    Mali may be salvageable with vaccines.

    Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia are done.

    The elites from those three countries are starting their running now...and they will get out, infected, thanks to the suicidal “open borders” ideology in the Western Left for the next three months.

    There are a lot of places that Ebola chain of transmission spread can reach in that time which will diffuse/distract whatever vaccines that do work. Not to mention focused Western public demand for the vaccines, thanks to things like credibility collapse for Western Public Health authorities.

    Corruption and ideological stupidity screw ups got us to where we are now. The forces that got us here are still very much in play for there prospective vaccines and their distribution.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/29/2014 1:07:36 PM PDT · 4,603 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Covenantor
    That 7,000 number WHO isn't reporting will be 14,000 on 25 Nov 2014...

    ...and likely 28,000 by this coming Christmas.

    There will be at least 1 million dead black West Africans even if one of the four vaccines being tested now actually works.

    If George W. Bush did this sort of performance with regard Ebola, the MSM would be accusing him of Genocidal neglect...and they would be right.

    Pres. Obama’s failure with Ebola will be what he is truly remembered for in future histories.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/29/2014 12:17:26 PM PDT · 4,600 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud; ElenaM; PA Engineer; exDemMom; Black Agnes; RinaseaofDs; Covenantor; ...
    It is compare and contrast time for the Ebola surveillance thread.

    See the following:

    1,671 posted on Friday, September 05, 2014 2:38:25 PM by RinaseaofDs

    Slightly reformatted for clarity —


    Easiest way to look at this is that the new cases double each month. The reported data clearly supports that trend in black and white numbers.

    May 1 = 180 cases (actual reported was 243),
    June 1 = 375 cases,
    July 1 = 750 cases,
    Aug 1 = 1500 cases,
    Sept 1 = 3000, (projection from here)
    Oct 1 = 6000,
    Nov 1 = 12,000,
    Dec 1 = 24,000.

    Now, the WHO is saying 100,000 by Dec 1, right? They believe their numbers are off by a factor of 4 with respect to ACTUAL open cases.

    4 * 24,000 = 96,000 or so cases.

    I realize it doesn’t match the pattern we are seeing in terms of WHO reported cases, but it does in one important way:

    May 1 = 375 cases,
    July 1 = 750 cases and
    Aug 1 = 1500 cases.

    We crossed 3000 reported open cases sooner than Sep 1, but not significantly. If we double again Oct 1, then it fits the data WHO is reporting. Essentially, we are doubling cases every 28 to 30 days, give or take a day. Mostly, now, we are taking days - it’s doubling sooner than when the first of the next month arrives.

    Where the math gets scary is in 2015.

    Using WHO data:

    Dec 1 = 24,000 cases (no 4 x fudge factor - confirmed cases).
    Jan 1 = 48K
    Feb 1 = 96K
    Mar 1 = 200K
    Apr 1 = 400K
    May 1 = 800K
    Jun 1 = 1.6M
    Jul 1 = 3.2M
    Aug 1 = 6.4M
    Sep 1 = 12.8M

    Next year, by Labor day, 13 million open cases, reported on the way they are now by WHO.

    Say WHO is right and they are off by a factor of 2. That means 25M cases open on Sept 1, 2015. Off by 4? 50 million infected by start of school 2015.

    This assumes: no vaccine, no serum, and a clearly crappy field test for the disease like we have today.

    If the tests get better, this number will increase. Right now the tests are very poor at actually diagnosing Ebola Guinea. That’s why WHO is guestimating they are off by either 2 or 4.

    So, let’s go into 2015 - 2016, conservatively, as we are wont to do:

    Jan 1, 2016 = 192M cases. By April you are at a billion cases.


    We are significantly over RinaseaofDs’ 1 November 2014 projection about four to five days early in terms of Who data.

    There will be no significant change in Africa in terms of Ebola treatment unit (ETU) space until Feb 2015.

    Given that 1/2 of the current ETU space in Liberia is unused due to cultural burial practice issues. Additional ETU space is irrelevant.

    Nothing short of a full military occupation with roughly five infantry divisions in the three effected Ebola countries with forcible Ebola clearance will make any difference, and the decision to do that had to be made last June.

    There may be around 250,000 doses of Ebola vaccine of doubtful effectively in May 2015.

    There will be over 800K Ebola infected at WHO data reporting rates, that may in fact represent only 20% of the actual total (4 million) on that date of whom at least 35% (1.4 million worse case) will be dead.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/29/2014 12:00:53 PM PDT · 4,598 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud; ElenaM; PA Engineer; exDemMom; Black Agnes
    The wheels have come off in the WHO reporting...which is acknowledged by all to be dominated by bad data on new cases.


    Reported Ebola cases jump to 13,703, WHO reports

    A big jump in reported Ebola cases is likely due to previous under-reporting, WHO says

    By CHRISTINE MAI-DUC
    OCTOBER 29, 2014 8:29 AM

    http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-who-ebola-numbers-20141029-story.html

    The World Health Organization says the number of reported Ebola cases has surpassed 13,700, a jump of more than 30% since the last numbers were released four days ago.

    Dr. Bruce Aylward, assistant director-general of the WHO, said the big jump in cases is likely due to previous under-reporting.

    As of today, there have been 13,703 reported cases of Ebola, the organization tweeted, with 13,676 of those in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three most affected countries in this outbreak.

    The fatality rate in those countries has remained consistently around 70%, Aylward said.

    Speaking to reporters in Geneva, Aylward said there is some indication that safe burials and education efforts in Liberia are improving, but he cautioned against assuming that Ebola was coming under control there or in any of the three countries most affected by the disease.

    He noted some encouraging signs, including the opening of the first community care center in Port Loko, Sierra Leone, a smaller facility designed to isolate and provide basic care to potential Ebola patients.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/27/2014 9:00:45 AM PDT · 4,545 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud

    So, the Obama Administration will send HWC straight from the hotzone to the USA w/o a 21 day wait, but US TROOPS get to wait 21 days in Italy?


    U.S. soldiers returning from Liberia monitored for Ebola in Italy

    U.S. soldiers returning from Liberia are being placed in isolation in Vicenza, Italy out of concern for the Ebola virus, CBS News national security correspondent David Martin reports.

    The soldiers being monitored include Maj. Gen. Darryl Williams who was the commander of the U.S. Army in Africa but turned over duties to the 101st Airborne Division over the weekend, Martin reports. There are currently 11 soldiers in isolation.

    They apparently were met by Carabinieri in full hazmat suits. If the policy remains in effect, everyone returning from Liberia - several hundred - will be placed in isolation for 21 days. Thirty are expected in today, Martin reports.

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3220057/posts

    And

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-outbreak-u-s-soldiers-returning-from-liberia-placed-in-isolation-in-italy/

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/27/2014 7:03:01 AM PDT · 4,544 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud; Smokin' Joe; ElenaM; PA Engineer

    This is the best PPE protection and supply chain analysis you are going to find regards dealing with a bio-hazard level four diease outbreak.

    Short form —

    There are neither enough suits of the right kind for a BH- lvl-4 outbreak, they cost too much abd deteriorate too face to stockpile, and we would run out of trained doctors and nurses before we could ramp up enough production in a really large outbreak.


    Why Protective Gear Isn’t Stopping Ebola

    EVEN THE BEST HAZMAT SUIT MANUFACTURERS CAN’T GUARANTEE PROTECTION AGAINST EBOLA. HERE’S WHY.

    http://www.fastcodesign.com/3037465/why-protective-gear-isnt-stopping-ebola?

    You will probably never contract Ebola. The average patient with Ebola only infects just two other people, even in the least developed parts of Africa, making it far less virulent than HIV, mumps, or measles, which spread to 4, 10, and 18 people respectively. But that fact is of little consolation when you consider that multiple healthcare providers are still getting sick, having contracted the disease despite wearing protective gear.

    It’s easy to blame incompetence at moments like this, but the fact of the matter is, our best protective suits aren’t stopping Ebola. And even if some hypothetical Ebola-proof suit did exist, you’d have a heck of a lot of trouble producing it, distributing it, and wearing it.

    HOW EBOLA SPREADS

    Ebola measures less than a micron across and spreads through fluids. There can be millions of particles in a single drop of blood, and just a single viral particle entering your bloodstream can cause a fatal infection. Because it’s not an airborne virus, it can’t flow from infected lungs, through the air for miles, into your nose, and infect you via breathing. But as The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) say, it can spread through membranes. If infected blood or mucus lands in someone’s eye, mouth, an open wound, or even just very dry, cracked skin, he or she can contract the disease. Ebola can also live for days or weeks in blood outside of the body (but the risk of catching the virus diminishes as blood dries).

    SHIFTING STANDARDS

    Officials recommendations on protective suits are vague. WHO: “When in close contact (within 1 metre) of patients with [Ebola], health-care workers should wear face protection (a face shield or a medical mask and goggles), a clean, non-sterile long-sleeved gown, and gloves (sterile gloves for some procedures).” The CDC revised its standards on October 20th, and has a much longer, but similarly vague, set of guidelines. The organization recommends double gloves (quality unspecified), “waterproof” boots or booties, an n95 mask—which is a pretty standard surgical mask that can block 95% of airborne particles—and that you not expose your skin. The CDC has also published a longer, 20-step procedure medical professionals should follow when they remove protective gear—which, most importantly, is to be sterilized before the doctor or nurse disrobes. Operators sanitize their hands afterward, too. Neither the CDC nor WHO takes a stance on the grade of suit material that should be used to protect against Ebola.

    In Africa now, Doctors Without Borders volunteers have been wearing suits produced by Dupont made of either Tyvek or Tychem material. Each is a woven textile, coated in patented industrial goo. (Similar suits are sold by a small handful of competitors.) These suits aren’t seamless footy-pajama-style garments. For the full-skin protection recommended by the CDC, they necessitate boots, gloves, surgical masks, and facial splash guards be added as well. And to seal the seams between a pant and boot or a glove and shirt, doctors will often use duct tape.

    Tyvek is relatively cheap at $10 per suit. Tyvek can breathe a bit in the sweltering heat of West Africa, where temperatures regularly range from 80 to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

    Both the U.S. and the European Union have their own somewhat convoluted grading systems for assessing the permeability of personal protective materials like Tyvek, in which independent labs put the materials through a series of tests and rate their performance. The EU’s tests, in particular, sound like strange, gruesome delights: soaking material in fake, red blood that’s been filled with bacteria and spraying an aerosol of viruses at a cloth then checking how many virus particles made it through.

    Dupont makes no promise that Tyvek shields wearers from viruses. It’s unranked, falling below the lowest grade, which EU standards would call Class 1. (A Class 1 material, sprayed with aerosol mist, allows 10% or more of the contagion through in lab testing.) Its liquid resistance doesn’t fare much better. In just 15 minutes, blood can soak through the material, bringing dangerous pathogens along with it.

    Tychem, and its peers, are Class 3 against viral aerosols—stopping all but .001% of viruses trying to make it through. They’re about as cheap as Tyvek. And they can be soaked in blood for more than 75 minutes before contaminants begin to pass.

    During the initial Ebola outbreak at Texas Presbyterian, the medical staff members were consulting with Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, which had treated Ebola, and the CDC. They faced suit standards that were “constantly changing,” and as the gravitas of Ebola set in, nurses upgrade from aprons to Tyvek suits with hoods and respirators. The CDC has since said that it’s possible too much gear increased their risk of contraction, as, paradoxically, the CDC’s recommendations for protective garments are designed for the less invasive treatment of Ebola patients in Africa, rather than the riskier, potentially fluid-filled operations that might be attempted in a U.S. hospital. The New York Times has published a superb side-by-side on CDC standards compared with those of the University of Omaha—one of the few U.S. hospitals with a formalized isolation unit that would receive a patient suspected to have Ebola. University of Omaha now deploys Tychem-level suits for doctors treating such patients. They also mandate more serious splash proof gear, like an overhanging neck protector, that doesn’t just cover your skin. It adds another overlapping barrier of protection over the suit’s seams. [NYTimes side-by-side: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/15/us/changes-to-ebola-protection-worn-by-us-hospital-workers.html?_r=0 ]

    But for doctors in the field who are treating patients with Ebola, the highest grades of personal protection aren’t as attractive as they may seem. Because in practice, the safest gear is virtually unwearable.

    WHAT IT’S LIKE WEARING PROTECTIVE GEAR

    Dr. John Hardham, PhD, former Medical Director at the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Chemical and Biological Defense Programs, led the President’s Medical Countermeasure Initiative with the Department of Defense until 2011. He’s also a Navy officer who has been deployed to detect chemical and biological agents—scenarios in which he’d wear suits made of a Tyvek or Tychem-grade material.

    “They’re hot. They don’t ventilate well,” he says. “When you’re wearing a suit of Tyvek-type material, that lets nothing in and nothing out—which also means your heat and your sweat get trapped in. You will generally end up with a puddle in your shoes because you’re sweating so much.”

    The heat is so bad that it becomes a real operational problem for people wearing the protective suits. Hardham says you can feasibly last about an hour in one of these suits in hotter environments before you need to get out. Doctors in West Africa who are treating Ebola patients work in 45 minute shifts in response to the heat.

    But breathability isn’t the only operational hazard that comes from a high-level protective suit, Hardham says. The plastic lenses of shields and goggles you wear over your eyes can warp your vision. Sweat can blur your vision further. And bulky headgear, like ventilators or gas masks that you would use for optimal protection, limit your field of view so much that you have to purposefully look down when you walk, and up to make sure you don’t hit your head through door frames.

    Tactility, too, is a problem. You simply can’t feel if your protective, Tychem booties have ripped from the weight of your body pushing them into sharp a sharp rock. Thicker gloves mean that you can’t feel what you’re touching, and a pointed instrument could poke through a suit at any time. “Could some of the needle sticks be associated with that? It’s possible,” Hardham says. “There are [guidelines] on how you’re supposed to recap a needle, but sometimes there’s human error. Instead of one-handed, they go two-handed and stick themselves.”

    In a lab setting, protective gear is just one level of defense, as Ebola can be quarantined inside a biosafety cabinet, and a researcher can follow all sorts of safety protocols at his or her own pace. But when Ebola infects a patient, be it in a hospital or medical tent, physical contact is necessary to care properly for the patient, and at that point, the suit is the last barrier of defense. “The fact of the matter is, when you need to intubate [a patient], you need to intubate them,” Hardham says. “You must have direct contact with them.”

    BUILDING BETTER PROTECTIVE GEAR

    So if we could build a better suit for handling Ebola patients, what would it look like? I posed that question to Todd Moncrief, vice president at Lakeland Industries, a manufacturer of the industrial-level personal protective suits being worn by some doctors in Africa.

    For one, a better suit would keep the wearer cooler. He pointed out that, like the rest of the “personal protective equipment” industry, Lakeland produces a suit that has a front side made of the company’s highest grade, least breathable materials, intended to shield a doctor the most effectively from blood and liquids, but a backside made of better-breathing, lighter grade material that might make the doctor more comfortable. The implication here is that you’ll almost always be facing Ebola head-on, so you build up your forward shields at the expense of your rear. “The moment someone says they have a breathable back, and it breathes, it means an Ebola virus could potentially [make its way in],” Moncrief says. “Are you safe or not safe?”

    Another option would be to introduce some sort of cooling mechanism. “If you think about getting in any material that covers your body completely, no matter where it breathes at that makes it cooler, you’re still talking about something you’d have to put cold air into,” he says. “And that takes more assets and costs a lot of money.” Cool vests, which Lakeland does produce, seem like the simplest solution, he says, but there are obvious logistical difficulties of keeping countless vests in refrigerated containers while distributing them across West Africa.

    A better suit would also be easier to remove. Right now, medical staff in Africa hose down their suits with chlorinated water to denature the virus before disrobing to mitigate potential. The CDC is in talks with designers of moon suits, to see if their design, with an easily reached zipper and a large ring attached at the shoulder that can be grasped with gloves, could be incorporated into medical gear.

    And a better suit would also be seamless, Moncrief says. Whereas suits today are a hodgepodge of tape-sealed boots, booties, gloves, and masks, made of different materials from a slew of different manufacturers, the ideal Ebola suit might resemble a big pair of footie pajamas with a built-in mask and gloves.

    THE FINANCIAL INCENTIVES DON’T STACK UP

    So why doesn’t Moncrief’s company, or any company in the industry, produce such a thing?

    “It’s almost like saying, you make the cars, why don’t you make the tires?” Moncrief says. Producing gloves is different from making shirts, and producing them in one seamless piece of gear is another challenge entirely.

    And then there’s the money problem. According to Moncrief, the personal protection equipment industry has little incentive to create an Ebola-proof suit because it can’t bank on an Ebola outbreak. Equipment companies generally serve factories, and other places where workers need protection from chemicals. They cater to the very specific needs of industrial hygienists, not to doctors treating the latest pandemic. “We’re all set up to service the industrialized world. We’re all set up to do that day in and day out, with tight supply chains and margins,” Moncrief says.

    Tight supply chains also means that if a worldwide epidemic struck, these companies would have trouble manufacturing enough gear. Personal protective suits only have a shelf life of five to 10 years before they’re no longer reliable, so you couldn’t just stockpile a large cache. “None of us think this thing is going to spread out of control,” Moncrief says, “but the reality of it is, no matter how many manufacturers are doing it today, you can’t put enough garments on the ground for the number of people you’d need in a matter of months.”

    But don’t let a lack of protective suits scare you. Even Moncrief admits, we’d probably run out of our supply of trained doctors and nurses first anyway.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/27/2014 6:44:41 AM PDT · 4,543 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe; Thud
    The NY Post is has reported that NY city may have its second (and perhaps its third to seventh) Ebola case(s) after a 5-year-old boy, who just returned from West Africa, was transported to Bellevue Hospital for testing with possible Ebola symptoms, according to law-enforcement sources.

    According to the Post, the child was vomiting and had a 103-degree fever when he was carried from his Bronx home by EMS workers wearing hazmat suits, neighbors said. “He looked weak,” said a neighbor.

    The boy returned with five family members from Guinea Saturday night.

    All five were being quarantined inside their apartment.

    See:

    http://nypost.com/2014/10/27/5-year-old-boy-being-tested-for-ebola-in-new-york-city/

    If any make a break for it after Obama faced down Cuomo over involuntary quarantine, there will be more than hell to pay.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/27/2014 3:36:22 AM PDT · 4,539 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud; Smokin' Joe; ElenaM; PA Engineer; Black Agnes

    There is the smell of ideological driven death around the CDC that even 60 Minutes cannot hide.

    No “CDC guidelines” that relies on the truthfulness or voluntary cooperation of possible Ebola victims will result in anything other than infection and death.


    ‘60 Minutes’ Just Broke New Details On The Dallas Ebola Case. Here’s What They Revealed.

    10/26/2014 @ 9:40PM
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamond/2014/10/26/60-minutes-just-broke-new-details-on-the-dallas-ebola-case-heres-what-they-revealed/?

    60 Minutes on Sunday told the story of a hospital tackling Ebola. A story of brave nurses and determined administrators. A story of heroes, frankly.

    It was the story of Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas — the hospital that treated the first patient diagnosed with Ebola in the United States. A hospital that’s been widely criticized, since Texas Health nurses Nina Pham and Amber Vinson also got sick with Ebola.

    You may think you know the details of what happened in Dallas. But 60 Minutes asks you to think again.

    60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley sat down with four of the nurses who treated Thomas Duncan, the initial Ebola patient.

    Here’s what we learned.

    1. Whether intentionally or not, Duncan misled authorities about his exposure to Ebola.

    When Duncan first presented to the hospital on September 25, he didn’t specify that he’d come from Liberia or even West Africa — the center of the Ebola outbreak.

    Duncan only said he’d returned from “Africa,” which could’ve meant one of dozens of nations, most of them far from the Ebola outbreak. Perhaps the nurses could’ve pressed him further. But with Duncan’s symptoms not that severe yet, and with no real reason to think he had Ebola, they sent him home.

    After Duncan was re-admitted to the hospital three days later, significantly sicker, the hospital suspected Ebola might be the cause. But even then, Duncan wasn’t wholly honest. He said he hadn’t been exposed to anyone who was sick from Ebola, even though later reports revealed that Duncan had bravely helped carry an Ebola-infected woman to a local hospital in Liberia.

    Duncan also told a nurse that he’d buried his daughter who died in childbirth — but he said that she hadn’t died from Ebola. Duncan later denied the story to federal officials.

    2. The hospital was unprepared, partly because the nation wasn’t ready.

    Public health officials have said this repeatedly: Nearly any hospital would’ve faced challenges if an Ebola patient unexpectedly walked through their doors. Texas Health was reportedly in the middle of Ebola training when Duncan showed up.

    (“There had to be a first hospital, and unfortunately for Texas Presbyterian, it was them,” said Dr. Sean P. Elliott, medical director of infection prevention at the University of Arizona Health Network, told the New York Times.)

    One enormous challenge, the nurses told 60 Minutes, was that protections to treat Ebola patients were initially unclear. For instance, when the nurses first treated Duncan on September 28, they were wearing gowns, masks, gloves, and face shields.

    That’s seemingly plenty of protection…but it still left their necks exposed. And that could be a fatal mistake when treating an Ebola patient. It’s probably the reason why nurses Pham and Vinson got sick.

    This lack of sufficient protection has been widely reported, and blamed on the hospital. But the nurses say they looked up protocols from the CDC, and as of late September, that’s what the CDC recommended.

    Scott Pelley: So the CDC protocols that you would’ve looked up the day he came into the emergency department was in your estimation deficient?

    All four nurses: Yes.

    Within 48 hours, Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital moved to equip its staff with suits that didn’t expose any skin — three weeks before the CDC made that policy their new national standard.

    3. The Ebola patient presented unprecedented challenges.

    After the hospital confirmed that Duncan had Ebola, they had to make crucial, rapid decisions. First, they emptied the entire 24-bed medical intensive care unit to focus just on Duncan.

    They also told staff that they had an Ebola patient, and they gave them the option to opt out. As a result, every staff member involved in Duncan’s care ended up being a volunteer — from doctors to nurses to housekeepers.

    Still, treating Duncan was unlike anything the care team had done before. Nurses worked two at a time, for two-hour shifts, wearing full-body protections that left them soaked in sweat under the suit.

    Duncan’s vomit and diarrhea also presented logistical challenges; it was all hazardous waste, because anything with Duncan’s bodily fluids could infect someone else. And he was producing an unbelievable amount of it.

    “I’ve been in health care for nearly 20 years,” ICU nurse John Mulligan told 60 Minutes, “and I’ve never emptied as much trash as just from the waste of his constant diarrhea.”

    4. The nurses are still reeling from the experience.

    The nurses who treated Duncan remain nervous. At least a few of them are still self-monitoring, because they were exposed to Nina Pham or Amber Vinson and they’re still within the 21 days window for infection.

    One nurse said he’s been having repeated nightmares of his coworkers getting infected and dying from Ebola.

    But they’re also traumatized by the experience of treating Duncan — watching the patient slip away, despite everything they did to try and save him. Duncan remains the only U.S. patient to die from Ebola.

    “It was the worst day of my life,” Mulligan told 60 Minutes. “This man that we cared for, that fought just as hard with us, lost his fight. And his family couldn’t be there.”

    “I was the last one to leave the room. And I held him in my arms. He was alone.”

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/26/2014 2:31:12 PM PDT · 4,534 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to ElenaM; Thud; Smokin' Joe

    Elena M,

    We seem to have a “flaming datum” confirmation of your rumors of “unhappy to the point of disobeying Ebola deployment orders” enlisted at Ft Campbell and Ft. Carson.

    The Brass were saying they were going isolate troops in West Africa, and now I am seeing serious money going into this.

    Short of mutiny, or the covered up investigation of a fragged officer, the Brass doing an immediate about face and throwing serious _unbudgeted money_ at the Ebola medevac mission from West Africa is what I consider confirmation.


    Pentagon builds units to transport Ebola patients

    Gregg Zoroya, USA TODAY 11:13 a.m. EDT October 26, 2014
    http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/world/2014/10/26/ebola-transport-military-patients-aircraft-phoenix-air/17669025/?

    As more U.S. troops head to West Africa, the Pentagon is developing portable isolation units that can carry up to 12 Ebola patients for transport on military planes.

    The Pentagon says it does not expect it will need the units for 3,000 U.S. troops heading to the region to combat the virus because military personnel will not be treating Ebola patients directly. Instead, the troops are focusing on building clinics, training personnel and testing patient blood samples for Ebola.

    “We want to be prepared to care for the people we do have there just out of an abundance of caution,” Defense Department spokeswoman Jennifer Elzea said.

    She said prototypes would be tested in the next month before being deployed in the field by January.

    Currently, transport of Ebola patients from overseas is done by Phoenix Air, a government contractor based in Georgia whose modified business jet is capable of carrying just a single patient.

    The Pentagon’s transportation system will allow the Air Force to use C-17 or C-130 transport planes to carry up to eight patients on stretchers or 12 patients who are able to walk, said Charles Bass, a Defense Department chemical engineer working on the project. Elzea said the cost of the units couldn’t be provided as the final contract for the project is still under negotiation.

    Bass, a former Army officer, said the units are key to providing peace of mind to U.S. troops in Africa.

    “It’s important when you’re on deployment that you feel that someone has your back,” he said. “(It) adds confidence to the people who are deployed.”

    Phoenix Air, which currently offers the only medically approved means of carrying Ebola patients at a cost of $200,000 a flight, has flown more than a dozen missions since late July, said Dent Thompson, company vice president of operations.

    That includes flights carrying three people infected with Ebola — physician Kent Brantly, missionary Nancy Writebol and cameraman Ashoka Mukpo — from Africa to the United States. The company also has carried other patients or those exposed to the virus to Europe and within the USA, Thompson added.

    Phoenix Air handles emergency Ebola flights, including for the U.S. military, through a contract with the U.S. State Department. Non-governmental groups seeking the service reimburse the U.S. government for Phoenix Air services, Thompson said.

    The Pentagon isolation units will be similar but smaller than the ones used by Phoenix Air. Those units, created four years ago, were developed in response to emerging diseases such as Severe Acute Respiratory System.

    The containment system is a tent-like structure held up by a metal framework within the jet. The single patient is attended to by a doctor and two nurses in flight, Thompson said.

    In addition to being able to hold more patients, the Pentagon units will also be set up on pallets that can be rolled onto the military aircraft. The patients will be divided between two isolation units, and a third connected structure will allow medical personnel leaving the units to remove potentially contaminated protective gear, Bass said.

    The toughest part of any Ebola transport mission is decontamination after each flight, Thompson said. Phoenix Air uses a complex process of fogging and spraying toxic disinfectant inside the module before removing and incinerating it. Similar procedures will be used for the military’s larger isolation units under development, Bass said.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/24/2014 6:02:58 PM PDT · 4,484 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to ElenaM

    >>...but this is the first I’ve ever heard of enlisted men
    >>believing they are being thrown out to do “battle” against
    >> a purely medical/biological threat for nothing more than
    >>short-term politics.

    I’ll have to check out the military side of my family.

    They will know if this is serious.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/24/2014 5:09:52 AM PDT · 4,449 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud; Smokin' Joe; PA Engineer; Tilted Irish Kilt; Black Agnes; Shelayne; Covenantor; ElenaM
    When the NY Times starts asking these questions about public health authority statements in the aftermath of the first press conference for the first NY City Ebola case, the Public Health Authorities have put their foot into the cow pie in terms of public credibility.


    Patient in New York City Tests Positive for Ebola
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html
    Marc Santora Oct 23, 2014

    A doctor in New York City who recently returned from treating Ebola patients in Guinea tested positive for the Ebola virus Thursday, becoming the city’s first diagnosed case.

    The doctor, Craig Spencer, was rushed to Bellevue Hospital on Thursday and placed in isolation while health care workers spread out across the city to trace anyone he might have come into contact with in recent days. A further test will be conducted by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to confirm the initial test.

    While officials have said they expected isolated cases of the disease to arrive in New York eventually, and had been preparing for this moment for months, the first case highlighted the challenges surrounding containment of the virus, especially in a crowded metropolis.

    Even as the authorities worked to confirm that Mr. Spencer was infected with Ebola, it emerged that he traveled from Manhattan to Brooklyn on the subway on Wednesday night, when he went to a bowling alley and then took a taxi home.

    The next morning, he reported having a temperature of 103 degrees, raising questions about his health while he was out in public.

    >snip<

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/23/2014 8:25:37 PM PDT · 4,436 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to PA Engineer; Thud; Tilted Irish Kilt; Jim Noble; Nachum; Smokin' Joe; Black Agnes; Covenantor; ...
    Here is a list of bad things from a poster at PFIF —


    Let us count the ways this could go bad:

    1. Uber car (How many Ebola cases in Liberia came from Taxis? Lots, I believe).

    2. Bowling alley (If you have ever bowled, you will know this is not the most hygienic of sports. You wear shoes large numbers of other people have worn and stick your fingers in rough holes which lots of other people have stuck their fingers in. The last time I bowled, there was Pizza sauce in the holes).

    3. The subway (I don't have the stomach to even get started on this one).

    Contact tracing? That should be interesting.


    ...Too which I will add the following —

    4. The weather in New York has been cloudy and in the 50 to and 60 degree high range the last few days. This is 40 Deg. F cooler than West Africa and 30 Deg F cooler than in Dallas. Fomites filled with Ebola are going to be contagious hours if not days longer than in West Africa, or Dallas come to that, due to lower UV and cooler temperatures.

    5. Population densities in NY City are higher than in Monrovia or any other major city in West Africa.

    6. Flu season has started in the North East.

    We are about to test the hypothesis of cooler climate Ebola Fomite spread.

    Such is the power of using Summoning Words.

  • US cautiously optimistic after no new Ebola in 5 days

    10/23/2014 3:10:01 PM PDT · 24 of 27
    Dark Wing to Smokin' Joe

    See the following and G-d Save NY City!

    Doctors Without Borders physician tested for Ebola in NYC

    By Ray Sanchez and Shimon Prokupecz, CNN
    updated 5:38 PM EDT, Thu October 23, 2014

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/23/health/new-york-possible-ebola-case/index.html

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/23/2014 3:07:11 PM PDT · 4,413 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Tilted Irish Kilt; Jim Noble; Nachum; Smokin' Joe; Black Agnes; Covenantor; Shelayne; ...
    We are about to get our first practical demonstration of Ebola fomites in a cooler, densely packed, American urban environment.

    >>The law enforcement official said the doctor was out in
    >>public. Authorities also quarantined his girlfriend, with
    >>whom he was spending time since his return from Africa.
    >>
    >>The doctor began feeling sluggish a couple of days ago,
    >>but it wasn't until Thursday, when he developed 103-
    >>degree fever, that he contacted Doctors Without Borders,
    >>the official said.

    G-d Help NY City.

    The CDC “Risk Messaging” certainly won't.


    Doctors Without Borders physician tested for Ebola in NYC

    By Ray Sanchez and Shimon Prokupecz, CNN
    updated 5:38 PM EDT, Thu October 23, 2014

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/23/health/new-york-possible-ebola-case/index.html

    (CNN) — A Doctors Without Borders physician who recently returned from West Africa is at a New York hospital for isolation and testing for the Ebola virus, Authorities said.

    The 33-year-old physician, employed at Columbia Presbyterian Hospital, developed a fever, nausea, pain and fatigue Wednesday night, a law enforcement official briefed on the matter told CNN. On Thursday morning he was taken to Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan for testing.

    The doctor returned from West Africa about 10 days ago, the official said. His name is Craig Spencer, according to law enforcement officials.

    The CDC had people packing up to go to New York on Thursday, and a specimen from the physician will be sent soon to Atlanta for testing, an official familiar with the situation told CNN’s Elizabeth Cohen.

    Investigators are taking the case seriously because it appears the doctor didn't quarantine himself following his return, the law enforcement official said.

    In a statement Thursday, Doctors Without Borders confirmed that the physicians recently returned from West Africa and was “engaged in regular health monitoring.” The doctor contacted Doctors Without Borders Thursday to report having a fever, the statement said.

    The law enforcement official said the doctor was out in public. Authorities also quarantined his girlfriend, with whom he was spending time since his return from Africa.

    The doctor began feeling sluggish a couple of days ago, but it wasn't until Thursday, when he developed 103-degree fever, that he contacted Doctors Without Borders, the official said.

    The case came to light after the New York Fire Department received a call shortly before noon Thursday about a sick person in Manhattan. The patient was taken to Bellevue.

    A statement from the New York Health Department said preliminary test results are expected in the next 12 hours.

    Get up to speed

    The health department said a special ambulance unit transported a patient suffering from a fever and gastrointestinal symptoms.

    The health care worker returned to the U.S. within the past 21 days from one of the three West African countries currently facing the outbreak of the deadly virus, the health department statement said.

    Bellevue Hospital is designated for the “isolation, identification and treatment of potential Ebola patients” in the city, the statement said.

    “As a further precaution, beginning today (Thursday), the Health Department's team of disease detectives immediately began to actively trace all of the patient’s contacts to identify anyone who may be at potential risk,” the health department statement said.

    “The chances of the average New Yorker contracting Ebola are extremely slim,” the statement said, adding that the disease is spread by direct contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person.

    Bellevue Hospital is one of the eight hospitals statewide that Gov. Andrew Cuomo designated earlier this month as part of an Ebola preparedness plan, the state heath department said.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/23/2014 3:00:45 PM PDT · 4,412 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud; Smokin' Joe

    Via the PFIF


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29750723

    The Malian government has confirmed the first case of Ebola in the country.

    It said a two-year-old girl had tested positive for the haemorrhagic virus. Reports say she recently returned from the neighbouring Guinea....

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    10/23/2014 8:42:03 AM PDT · 4,409 of 4,890
    Dark Wing to Thud
    >>The data on infection date is suspect due to differences
    >>between the rural model used and the current urban
    >>environment. The latter also presents the potential for
    >>fomite infection.

    Ahem...Dallas is an urban area, as were the various places in Ohio and elsewhere contacts of Ms Vinson visited.

    We can say the data is bad, but we can't say anything more.

    For “Bad how?” see Smokin’ Joe's post above.

    We don't know and the public health people who should be asking are too deep into “Risk Messaging” cant to want to go there.

    At least absent of a looking down the barrel of a public riot dumped on their collective heads.