Posts by DJ Elliott

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  • Iraqi Security Force Update December 2012

    12/02/2012 4:51:20 PM PST · 6 of 7
    DJ Elliott to humblegunner

    Maybe you could look up copyright law.
    [once burned...]

    2 paragraphs minus links and graphic are an excerpt of the 2-3 page article by definition.

    If you are interested - you read the full monthly summary of changes with graphics and links plus the more than 200 pages of ISF OOB and reference data.
    Which FR is not interested in hosting as a cross-post.

    As I have repeatedly said, this is just a FYI heads up to the handfull of people still interested that happen to reside here - not for the BS artists such as yourself.

    If the owners/moderators of FR have a problem with this - they can always erase my posts and revoke my log-in.
    Their site to do with as they please.
    To date, they have never complained - unlike your name-link that says:
    “This account has been banned or suspended.”

  • Iraqi Security Force Update December 2012

    12/02/2012 4:43:54 AM PST · 4 of 7
    DJ Elliott to GeronL

    You are aware that the US death rate [all causes] in Iraq dropped below the USMC death rate for motorcycle accidents after 2008? It was safer to be deployed to Iraq than it was to be stationed in CONUS throughout the occupation.

    After 2008, deaths in Iraq [all sides/all causes] dropped below the murder rate in Venesuala - VE only has 2/3rds the population of Iraq but, more murders occur there than deaths in Iraq to all causes...

    The reason the USMC started agitating to leave Iraq and go to Afghanistan in 2008 was because they are assault troops and the CMC felt they were wasting their time there.

    The only reason we stayed as long as we did was we wanted to leave a tripwire to keep Iran from invading since the IA was and remains unprepared for conventional war. We left because Obama didn’t want US there.

    IMoD planned on 2020 as the date they would be prepared to effectively defend Iraq - 2012 was US politics...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update December 2012

    12/02/2012 2:15:26 AM PST · 3 of 7
    DJ Elliott to GeronL

    No.

    Iraq is buying 80 percent of its weapons from the US.
    US is still training the IA.
    If the Russian deal goes through, it will be 10-20 percent compared to ongoing US arms deals.

    The only thing Iraq did was insist that we depart per our agreement - we did.
    Given the level of nationalism there - it would be inconceivable for any Iraqi politician to do otherwise.

    Would the US agree to allow foreign troops to occupy US?
    Would any US politician ever propose that and get re-elected?

    What Iraq is - is weak. Every country bordering them out guns them in every category of weapons except infantry. And both Turkey and Iran also outnumber them in Infantry.
    Iraq has signed no mutual defense treaties - they are neutrals officially without the military capacity to win or even give a good fight against any of the countries bordering.

    You would be quiet and very polite too - if you were bordered by Iran, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi, and Kuwait with Kuwait [the weakest] having more tanks and artillery than you do, not to mention having an air force which Iraq doesn’t really have.
    E.G. Kuwait has over 70 F/A-18s - Iraq has yet to receive a single jet.

    Our fight against the Iraqi Army ended in 2003.
    In the 9 years we occupied Iraq, after May 2003, there were fewer than 8 incidents of Iraqi Army shooting at US troops.
    By comparison, in Afghanistan we have had as many Green-on-Blue incidents in the last year.
    The IA served alongside US against the extremists...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update December 2012

    12/01/2012 5:15:21 PM PST · 1 of 7
    DJ Elliott
    FYI for those interested. If you are not - then don't go to the link. It is not worth my time to re-format...
  • A Passing Advantage – The Kurdish/Iraq Confrontation

    11/23/2012 12:50:12 PM PST · 8 of 12
    DJ Elliott to WilliamofCarmichael
    My mistake - I didn't read it first. One of my suspisions is that Turkey is reserecting Ataturk’s original plan for a confederation of Turks and Kurds with an eye to regaining 1918 borders. Using the KRG to form the Kurdish component [independent KRG] so as to remove the PKK from power in the resulting confederation. Then there is factoring in the Iranian competision with Turkey in the region. One thing is clear - Turkey is turning away from Europe.
  • A Passing Advantage – The Kurdish/Iraq Confrontation

    11/23/2012 7:29:19 AM PST · 5 of 12
    DJ Elliott to humblegunner

    FORMATING.

    FR uses a different format to publish than my own blog.

    It is a serious pain to convert and ussually mangles the links and para seperation.

    So I excerpt here to provide those interested with a heads up that there is more out there.

    It’s not like I get any money for this - no advertising on my site, just a hobby.

  • A Passing Advantage – The Kurdish/Iraq Confrontation

    11/23/2012 7:23:27 AM PST · 4 of 12
    DJ Elliott to WilliamofCarmichael

    The Kurdish Regional Guards or Kurdish Regional Government are not the PKK. PKK AOR is Turkey or as the Kurdish Nationalists put it: Northern Kurdistan.

    This is about an Iraqi vs Kurd confrontation in which the PKK has no say.
    The Kurds are not a monolith. PKK is a seperate party from the PUK/KDP/Gorram that are the parties to watch in Iraqi Kurdish politics.

    Not only that but, the PKK is a non-entity compared to the KRG force strength...

  • A Passing Advantage – The Kurdish/Iraq Confrontation

    11/22/2012 4:58:38 PM PST · 1 of 12
    DJ Elliott
  • Iraqi Security Force Update November 2012

    11/03/2012 5:12:56 AM PDT · 1 of 1
    DJ Elliott
    In case anyone is still interested...
  • Iraqi Arms Purchases October 2012

    10/15/2012 8:36:55 PM PDT · 1 of 1
    DJ Elliott
    In case anybody is interested in analysis vice hype.
  • Baby Come Back: Iraq is Buying Russian Weapons Again

    10/12/2012 12:15:59 AM PDT · 7 of 7
    DJ Elliott to klpt

    Reality 101.

    5 countries in the world build most of the military weapons.
    When it comes to combat aircraft and missiles, 87% are built by those 5 countries.

    US is number 1.
    But the US wouldn’t sell Iraq what they wanted.
    Russia is number 2.
    Where did they go?

    Of note: China is 3, France is 4, and UK is 5.

    Most countries in that region buy from multiple sources.
    Iraq has been buying most from the US.
    This is Iraq’s first direct buy from Russia since the collapse of the USSR 2 decades ago...

    US does not have a monopoly and if we tell some country we are not selling a type of weapon to them, they will go elsewhere.

  • Baby Come Back: Iraq is Buying Russian Weapons Again

    10/11/2012 12:47:40 PM PDT · 5 of 7
    DJ Elliott to klpt

    Read it again. and look up what those are.

    US refused to sell Apache to Iraq so they bought the closest thing to it that Russia had.

    As to Pantsir-S1 - junk. Easily jammed command guided missiles. Sounds good and officially supposed to be the short-range cover for SA20. Since US will not sell Patriot to Iraq, looks like they are going with SA20...

    And the pricetag is 3-4x more than it should be for what was announced...

  • Exclusive: Western report - Iran ships arms, personnel to Syria via Iraq

    09/20/2012 4:16:06 AM PDT · 7 of 11
    DJ Elliott to Viennacon

    Iraq has no way of knowing what is in aircraft overflying them.

    Iraq has no air defense - anybody can fly what they want over Iraq.

    That does not mean that Iran controls the ground...

  • Carrier Strike Group Rushes To Persian Gulf

    08/27/2012 7:45:19 AM PDT · 44 of 97
    DJ Elliott to Strategy

    Pure BS.

    In a confrontation with Iran - You deploy the carriers out of the Persian Gulf kill zone. Well out of coastal defense missile range in the North Arabian Sea is the location for carriers in a confrontation with Iran - Gonzo Station.

    Carriers are not Battleships, you don’t operate them at gun ranges. Be worried when we empty out of the Persian Gulf - not when we are doing normal ops in the Gulf...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update August 2012

    08/04/2012 3:57:58 PM PDT · 1 of 1
    DJ Elliott
    For those still interested.
  • Pentagon Sending Aircraft Carrier to Mideast Early

    07/17/2012 12:52:34 AM PDT · 9 of 9
    DJ Elliott to moonshot925

    One of the turnovers is happening in the Med - this is about Syria...

  • ISF Total Force Mobilization Update July 2012

    07/13/2012 8:48:03 AM PDT · 1 of 1
    DJ Elliott
    In case anyone is still interested.
  • Iraqi Security Force Update July 2012

    07/02/2012 12:34:58 AM PDT · 1 of 1
    DJ Elliott
    In case anyone is interested. Have a happy 4th of July...
  • Iraqi Security Force Update June 2012

    06/03/2012 2:51:02 PM PDT · 1 of 2
    DJ Elliott
    FYI if anybody still interested.

    70th aniversary of Midway tomarrow - have a drink to Torpedo 8.

  • Iraqi Security Force Update May 2012

    05/03/2012 11:52:19 PM PDT · 14 of 14
    DJ Elliott to TomasUSMC

    If Iraq joins the GCC - then they are de facto allies.

    Plenty of US allies have rules about not having foreign troops stationed on their soil in peacetime.

    E.G. Denmark, a long-time NATO ally has had that law for 4 decades. Which is why the F16 IPs we loaned them in late 80s/early 90s were officially AmEmb/ODC personnel despite spending all their time with the RDAF at Karup AB. Since the NATO personnel were under a Danish Flag Officer - they didn’t count as foreign troops any more than those assigned to Embassies.

    Saudi is another example. Officially no foreign troops - All the US Military personnel are officially AmEmb, mostly MAAG.

    This is a more common cover than most reallize for the host countries’ nationalistic political reasons - I didn’t reallize how common until I did a USDAO stint in Denmark with TAD/TDY time in Riyadh when some idiot decided he wanted a 19th province.

    Look at it from their POV. Would you want large numbers of foreign personnel stationed in the US? Even with the relatively small numbers in the US for training, etc; we already have US fanatics claiming we are being occupied by NATO/UN, etc...

    Don’t forget the Iranians or Iraqis vs Kurds.
    All 4 of those countries really do not want an independent Kurdistan...

    I get inquiries from contractor security firms about ISF periodically. In most cases, they are better dialed in as to what is going on in Iraq than the USG is. The Beltway Bandits have always lived in their own fantacy world.

  • Iraqi Security Force Update May 2012

    05/03/2012 3:58:03 PM PDT · 12 of 14
    DJ Elliott to TomasUSMC

    PS Some of my regulars are in the contractor category.
    You bet they have contingency plans...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update May 2012

    05/03/2012 3:55:40 PM PDT · 11 of 14
    DJ Elliott to TomasUSMC

    I expect that any US strikes on Iran will result in Iran invading Iraq.

    1. To get to the oil.
    2. To get a land route to the GCC nations.

    If they can gain control of enough of the oil, they can seriously hurt US.

    Did you notice the talks of Iraq joining the GCC?
    Joining an alliance which considers Iran its primary enemy.

    Like I said, there is more going on here than the MSM’s simplistic explanations...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update May 2012

    05/03/2012 2:52:55 PM PDT · 9 of 14
    DJ Elliott to TomasUSMC

    Read what I said and quit trying to put words in my mouth.
    I do not like strawman propaganda arguments.
    [E.G. Religion of Peace BS.]

    All religions have political influence.
    Sistani is against the DIRECT rule of clergy.
    Yes, he was born in Iran - yet Iranian Gov backed elements keep targeting him and his followers.
    There is an ongoing fight to replace him with another Iranian from the Qom School.

    The Qom School is the base of the current Iranian Government...

    All religions are used as excuses for warfare.
    All religions are political in practice.
    [The corruption of power: What greater power can a man claim than to be God’s spokesman?]
    Almost all religions claim to be about “peace” yet people still kill in their name.
    People of the same religion still fight wars with each other for power. Shia has killed more Shia than any other group. The same can be said of most religions.

    Islam is no more monolithic than Christianity.
    The major split in Islam is Shia/Sunni.
    Within those there are further splits into a multitude of sects.
    Iran is ruled by Twelver Shia - which is a minority Shia Sect in Iraq.
    Iran is allied with Syrian Government which is run by a Sect that the Twelvers called heritic until they became military allies.

    There is more than just religion at play here and simplistic claims hide details.

    Iraq has a very long border with Iran and no effective way to defend it. Appeasement is the Iraqi current rule of the day...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update May 2012

    05/03/2012 2:21:47 PM PDT · 8 of 14
    DJ Elliott to donozark

    The only Iraqi competition that I ever heard of Romania being in was for ~400 wheeled APCs.
    They ended up not buying any of them.
    Competion was:
    M1117 APC version
    Stryker
    LAV25
    U/I Romanian APC

    The IA ended up starting the stryker buy then cancelling it during the 2008/9 budget crunch.

    Instead they got used M113s via EDA...

    Not sure what this latest shopping trip was for.

  • Iraqi Security Force Update May 2012

    05/02/2012 7:54:13 PM PDT · 5 of 14
    DJ Elliott to hinckley buzzard

    lol.

    I have considered it.
    But the weather is getting too hot for serious Iranian combat operations.

    Wait until temperatures cool down a bit in the Fall...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update May 2012

    05/02/2012 7:49:20 PM PDT · 4 of 14
    DJ Elliott to TomasUSMC

    Maybe, maybe not.

    Shia is not a monolithic grouping.
    There is an ongoing unofficial war going on between
    the Qom School which advocates rule of clergy and
    the Karbala School which advocates clergy not corrupting itself by direct involvement in government. It doesn’t get much MSM reporting because it doesn’t fit their propaganda.

    Then there is the tribal disputes between Arab and Persian tribal groups which goes back a couple millenia. Persians and Turks look at Arabs as “Dirty little desert thieves” and Arabs know this.

    Those factor tend to argue against the MSM myth of Shia unity.
    Islam is very divided and other factors play a role.

    On the other hand, The ISF would last about 2 weeks against the Iranians if they choose to invade. ISF lacks Tanks, ATGWs, Artillery, AIR DEFENSE and proper logistics.

    I give them 2 weeks because of Iranian weaknesses in Bridging and Logistics - not because of Iraqi abilities.

    Effectively, the ISF is ROKA circa June 1950 without the terrain advantages...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update May 2012

    05/02/2012 7:27:30 PM PDT · 1 of 14
    DJ Elliott
    In case anyone is interested.
  • Iraqi Security Force Update April 2012

    04/02/2012 9:35:28 PM PDT · 1 of 1
    DJ Elliott
    If anybody is still interested.
  • Iraqi Security Force Update March 2012

    03/06/2012 8:27:29 AM PST · 2 of 2
    DJ Elliott to SandRat

    FYI

  • Iraqi Security Force Update March 2012

    03/06/2012 8:23:56 AM PST · 1 of 2
    DJ Elliott
    FYI
  • Iraqi Security Force Update February 2012

    02/03/2012 9:38:03 PM PST · 1 of 1
    DJ Elliott
    FYI
  • Iraqi Army Development Status January 2012

    01/24/2012 2:11:16 PM PST · 10 of 10
    DJ Elliott to buwaya

    The lack of any Iraqi defense treaties is why the USF-I withdraw was effectively throwing Iraq to the wolves.

    If USF-I was still there, then any attack on Iraq would result in automatic US response since they would also be attacking US forces.

    As it stands, any attack would have a political delay while the US and GCC politicals debated “do we want a war with Iran”?

    Iraq would fall before that political debate was over given the current gaps in force structure, training and equipment.

    The US is under no obligation to defend Iraq. Iraq has no treaty allies...

  • Iraqi Army Development Status January 2012

    01/24/2012 1:57:47 PM PST · 9 of 10
    DJ Elliott to buwaya

    In 1989 Iran had a 1/3rd the armor/artillery it has now.
    The 1988 Iraqi offensives did a number on them.

    They have upgraded since then and continue to upgrade with Russian assistance.

    E.G. The new “indiginious” built tank is the old M60 hulls with new suspension, Russian diesel engine, A T90’s turrent, gun, and fire-control plus reactive armor. Basically, it is a Russian upgrade Kit.

    The number of Russian tanks in the Iranian Forces has also gone up.

    By comparison Iraq has:
    140 M1A1s - however the 120mm ammo bought so far is basic training levels.
    ~125 T72s
    All the above is in Baghdad Province with 9th Div.
    ~76 T54/55 - however, I’ve never seen the main guns fired and the views of the barrels indicate they are not operational. These are in Basra and Ninawa.

    Other than those tanks and RPGs [squad level weapons], none of the ISF have an anti-tank capability...

    As to artillery, 9th Div in Baghdad, 5th Div in Diyala, and 3rd Div in Ninawa are the only IA Divisions with Howitzers - and they only got them in the last year - still training on using them. 120 M198s and 30 M109s total.

    It does not matter how bad the Iranian Air is if it is unopposed - anything that flies is more than Iraq has.

    Why do you think the US would interviene? We have no defense treaty with Iraq. Iraq has no defense treaties with any countries.

    And where would we fly from? Need the permission of the GCC to fly from there and a war with Iran would leave the birdfarms outside the Gulf - inside the Gulf is a kill box from the Iranian coast.

    You are assuming immeadiate reaction from the US/GCC. I do not see it with the current US administration and I do not see it from the GCC. Iraq is not a US tripwire since we left - the GCC is.

  • Iraqi Army Development Status January 2012

    01/24/2012 7:42:42 AM PST · 5 of 10
    DJ Elliott to qaz123

    Agreed with 1 correction. I would rate the Kurdish forces higher - on par with ISOF/SWAT.

    They are trained/equipped as an COIN force. They only started training and equipping for conventional last year.

  • Iraqi Army Development Status January 2012

    01/24/2012 7:37:14 AM PST · 4 of 10
    DJ Elliott to buwaya

    Yes and No.

    You are forgeting that the traditional way for an unstable government to rally support is a foreign war. Use nationalism to rally the population.

    7 Iranian heavy Divs to Iraq’s 1. Even if half of Iran’s Tanks are non-op, they still outnumber Iraq’s tanks by 3 or 4 to 1.

    Even if half of Iran’s howitzers are non-op, they still outnumber Iraq’s over 10:1.

    Even if half of Iran’s Air Force is grounded, they still have jets and they still have an air defense. Iraq doesn’t.

    Then there is the infantry - Iran has 48 Divisions in the Army and IRGC of which 41 are infantry. Over 3:1.

    My estimate that Iraq would be overrun by a conventional Iranian invasion in 2 weeks is based on Iranian deficiencies and terrain - not on Iraq being able to hold.

    Other than the Baghdad/Diyala area and the KRG - the rest of Iraq is effectively undefended against a conventional attack. And all of Iraq is free-range for any jets that do fly...

  • Iraqi Army Development Status January 2012

    01/23/2012 4:33:34 PM PST · 1 of 10
    DJ Elliott
    FYI
  • U.S. military moves carriers, denies Iran link

    01/11/2012 6:37:51 PM PST · 9 of 23
    DJ Elliott to Sub-Driver

    http://www.neptunuslex.com/2012/01/11/2-0/

    “Vinson replaces Stennis, and Lincoln – another PACFLEET carrier – is on its way west through the Indian Ocean. Vinson deployed in November of last year, and Lincoln – which deployed for a round-the-world cruise in December of 2011 in order to make a scheduled overhaul in Newport News, VA this August. A peacetime, rotational presence, no doubt. Fortunate happenstance. Luck o’ the draw.

    Still, that’s an awful lot of firepower.

    And Stennis isn’t home yet.”

  • U.S. Top Officer: Closing Hormuz would be Red Line

    01/09/2012 12:05:25 AM PST · 37 of 40
    DJ Elliott to TLI

    Nit: There is an export pipeline thru Turkey.

    But, yes most of it is piped to ships at Kharg Island and then out thru the SoH.

    Given Turkey’s position in NATO, that would probably also close. Turks and Iranians are in competition for domination of the region.

  • U.S. Top Officer: Closing Hormuz would be Red Line

    01/08/2012 11:56:33 PM PST · 36 of 40
    DJ Elliott to RC one

    Because we didn’t want Iran partitioned between US/USSR/Iraq and possibly WWIII starting there.

    RR may have joked about WWIII but, he was carefull not to let things get out of hand.

    The unofficial agreement with the USSR from 1979 on was that if we went to war with Iran they would re-occupy the north while we took the south. We did not want the USSR to have a border with their treaty ally Iraq - that would have put the USSR in position to take the entire GCC.

    Mercy had nothing to do with it...

  • U.S. Top Officer: Closing Hormuz would be Red Line

    01/08/2012 4:07:37 PM PST · 17 of 40
    DJ Elliott to RC one

    We only sunk 1 FFG, 1 PTG, and 3 PBs in Preying Mantis.

    The 8 hours war was not significant enough to be a deterant...

  • Closing the Strait of Hormuz is Iranian bluster

    01/04/2012 3:55:53 PM PST · 22 of 22
    DJ Elliott to Progov

    Even what we did to the Libyans in 1984 in retaliation for the Berlin Disco bombing was not even close to sinking their entire Navy.

    PS Libya never had Destroyers. It was 2 patrol vessels and a Minesweeper...

  • Closing the Strait of Hormuz is Iranian bluster

    01/04/2012 3:53:11 PM PST · 21 of 22
    DJ Elliott to hinckley buzzard

    Didn’t Happen.
    Barracks was in 1983. The Iranian Navy was not targeted for it and did not lose any ships to the USN until 1987 when we seized the Iran Ajr mining Bahrain Bell. Operation Preying Mantis was in 1988.

    The Iranian Navies were not sunk at any time by the USN...

  • Iraqi Security Force Update January 2012

    01/04/2012 3:48:24 PM PST · 2 of 3
    DJ Elliott to SandRat

    FYI

  • Iraqi Security Force Update January 2012

    01/04/2012 3:47:31 PM PST · 1 of 3
    DJ Elliott
    In case anyone is interested.
  • Closing the Strait of Hormuz is Iranian bluster

    12/31/2011 9:31:18 AM PST · 8 of 22
    DJ Elliott to Daveinyork

    1988 Operation Preying Mantis only sunk 1 FFG, 1 PTG, and 3 PBs.

    Not even close to the entire navy. At that time they had 3 DDs, 4 FFGs, 11 PTGs, and about 100 PBs.

    I know, I was there for it. I&W watch, CJTFME/CMEF.

    Every time they hold these exercises [1-2 times a year], this claim is made. It is their way of causing a spike in oil prices - remember that oil is their economy...

  • Strait of Hormuz standoff: Iran films US aircraft carrier

    12/30/2011 5:22:06 PM PST · 78 of 93
    DJ Elliott to tanknetter

    Actually, we do. Top cover during transit is normal.
    Plus it has become normal to det a couple squadrons to Afghan.
    That is why they are transiting.
    They are due to be relieved and they need to go pick up the detached elements and do turnover...

  • Strait of Hormuz standoff: Iran films US aircraft carrier

    12/30/2011 5:13:13 PM PST · 76 of 93
    DJ Elliott to Ernest_at_the_Beach

    Situation normal.
    Iran does 1-2 major Naval Exercises a year.
    Even when they were at war with Iraq - this was normal.
    For that matter, it was the same under the Shah.
    They always include missile shoots.
    HQ and main port of the Iranian Navy and the IRGCN is at Bandar Abbas - right at the top of the SoH.
    They never do exercises further than 12 hours steaming from there or the PTG base at Bushere in the north.
    That way, they are an easy tow back to port when they mess up.

    This is much to do about nothing...

  • Strait of Hormuz standoff: Iran films US aircraft carrier

    12/30/2011 8:46:36 AM PST · 16 of 93
    DJ Elliott to Former Proud Canadian

    Get a chart of the SoH.
    When you transit SoH you can see land on both sides.
    Oman to the south and Iran to the north.
    You are in Iranian or Omani territorial waters exercising the right of free passage.
    Short of actually firing - it’s their legal territory.

    Note: This article is BS. This happens all the time...

  • ISF Total Force Mobilization Update December 2011

    12/29/2011 12:45:06 PM PST · 29 of 29
    DJ Elliott to RC one

    PS The best mines used in Iraq were provided by Iran to their proxies in Iraq. EFP warheads are anti-tank warheads and the ones used in Iraq were made in Iran.

    Used against both US and ISF by the Iranian proxies in the fight...

    The US was not fighting the ISF. The US and ISF were fighting as allies...

  • ISF Total Force Mobilization Update December 2011

    12/29/2011 12:39:41 PM PST · 28 of 29
    DJ Elliott to RC one

    You do realize that your claim supports my argument about the ISF?

    The people that attacked US Forces after May 2003 were/are the same that attack the ISF.

    The ISF was on the US side of the insurgency.

    Fewer than a dozen incidents of ISF shooting at US in 9 years - all were with personal arms, not IEDs...