Posts by EternalHope

Brevity: Headers | « Text »
  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/29/2014 11:19:10 AM PDT · 2,582 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Thud

    Thanks for the info. I wasn’t aware the Liberian transportation system was so bad.

    The rainy season is about to start, which means mosquitoes and malaria. There are already too many dead to properly dispose of. At some point the water supply will become contaminated. Dysentery and cholera will follow.

    In other words, Liberia faces the perfect storm. There may not be much of Liberia left by next spring. Liberia has about 4 million people.

    I assume Sierra Leone is in the same position, just not quite as far along. Guinea might be also.

    The combined population of these three nations is a bit over 20 million. Given current international policies it is hard to imagine how it will be contained to just those three countries.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/28/2014 9:35:25 PM PDT · 2,560 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Thud
    I partly agree. I disagree that anything we can do now will make a difference in the outcome. IMO this outcome became inevitable weeks ago, perhaps several months ago.

    Actually we're probably 99% in agreement.

    We're watching a train wreck in slow motion. The train has already left the tracks but most of the people on board are still alive.

    We're standing, frozen in disbelief, right in front of the train. Thus far we have not even started to get out of the way.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/28/2014 9:38:27 AM PDT · 2,534 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Black Agnes

    (rant: on)

    The CDC is optimistically saying the “worst case” can be avoided if we just make a big enough commitment, and that we will do so.

    The happy talk from the CDC is nice. We have nothing to worry about HERE.

    Meanwhile, in Africa, there are precious few actual results from those “commitments” and the pandemic is growing faster than the commitments even if they are eventually honored (talk is cheap).

    The public is NOT being told what happens if the commitment is too little, too late.

    Here’s what is actually happening:

    1. The medical infrastructure could not handle this in the first place, and much of that infrastructure has already crumbled.

    2. The disease is expanding so quickly that basic services will soon begin to fail as well.

    So unless we can turn this around, right now, here’s what will happen:

    A. What’s left of the medical infrastructure, already ineffective, will collapse. The pandemic will accelerate even more.

    B. As the pandemic accelerates, the people needed to keep basic infrastructure going will die. Water, sewer, and electricity will begin to fail. Food distribution will cease.

    C. When this begins to happen the population will panic. As many as possible will flee. The process of overall collapse will accelerate.

    D. Most of those who are unable to flee will eventually die. Some of those who are able to flee will carry the disease with them.

    ALL OF THIS IS EASILY PREDICTABLE.

    AT THIS POINT IT IS ALSO THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME.

    Our “leaders” are full of happy talk about how much they plan to do. Our media glibly repeats the happy talk. Our public is asleep.

    (rant: off)

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/27/2014 11:38:58 AM PDT · 2,514 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    Anyone following Ebola should check out the links I put in post 2513.

    This is the first good news I’ve seen on Ebola. We might already have at least one effective drug.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/27/2014 11:30:30 AM PDT · 2,513 of 2,784
    EternalHope to PA Engineer
    The first good news I've seen on Ebola:
    An HIV drug that seems to work on Ebola

    The second good news I've seen on Ebola:
    Possible anti-viral research breakthrough, including Ebola

    Basically, it appears Ebola and HIV share a similar way into the cells they infect. A desperate/inspired doctor in Africa took that basic information and started trying HIV drugs on Ebola patients. The initial read is that it WORKED!!

    I found both of these here:
    Outstanding Ebola web site thread (Pandemic Flu Information Forum)

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/27/2014 9:11:51 AM PDT · 2,511 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    “West Africa death toll passes 3,000 - WHO”

    About all you say about WHO is that their numbers have always been wrong and are getting worse, and their advice is terrible.

    Doctors Without Borders has made the human race proud in this.

    WHO, and the response of the world in general, has shown human government to be contemptible.

    This has been a historic failure of human government in general, but a single individual stands out as more culpable than any other single person: Margaret Chan (the head of WHO).

    Firing Margaret Chan would be too good for her.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/27/2014 12:25:30 AM PDT · 2,506 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Axenolith
    Since the spread is slower than "terrible disease" spread shown in movies (28 Days, WW-Z, Contagion, Planet of the Apes, etc...) it seems people don't think of it as a threat.

    I know. Nothing we do or say can even get their attention. At least for now...

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/26/2014 10:11:03 AM PDT · 2,500 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    The World Health Organization is now saying we may have as many as 10,000 doses of a vaccine by January. The WHO has lost all credibility in this crisis, but the possibility of a vaccine deserves some thought.

    So... Enough vaccine may be ready by January(?) to inoculate 10,000 people.

    FIRST, this needs to be put in context:

    A. We could be looking at more than a million victims by January, with the number of victims more than doubling every month. (The steps necessary to prevent this have not been taken, and it may already be too late.)

    B. It is probable that a situation like this would cause a complete breakdown of all infrastructure and generate intense pressure for everyone in the affected area to flee.

    C. If this happens, people will begin to flee in large numbers long before a million people were infected. Those financially able will attempt to flee by plane, boat, and car. The majority will attempt to flee on foot.

    SECOND, we don’t even know if the vaccine will work, or be safe enough to use. To put this in context:

    A. Most experimental vaccines do NOT work.

    B. There won’t have been enough time to find out if it is safe.

    THIRD, by January it will be too late to save the worst hit countries. To put this in context:

    A. It takes time after getting a vaccination for the body to create meaningful immunity. It can easily take a couple of weeks, and sometimes more than one shot is needed.

    How long until a meaningful number of doses can be manufactured? (Most likely, quite a while.)

    B. How will a meaningful vaccination program be implemented, and how long will it take to do so? (It will take a long time, even if a way can be found to do so.)

    C. In other words, a vaccine, even IF it works, will be too little, too late, to help in the areas that are already hit.

    D. So... If we find a workable vaccine, the best we can hope for is that it will be useful in protecting the rest of the world. Let’s hope and pray it works.

    FINAL COMMENT:

    In my opinion, it is nearly certain that Ebola will infect enough people in the worst hit countries to cause a breakdown in their basic infrastructure.

    People will be forced to attempt to flee. Some of them will be infected. Ebola will spread far and wide unless the rest of the world takes horrific steps to isolate the infected areas.

    None of us want to even contemplate such a horrible situation. The media and our leaders are afraid to even broach the subject in public. The incompetence of our leaders has led to this.

  • World Health Organization: Experimental Ebola Vaccine Doses Will Be Ready By 2015

    09/26/2014 9:46:31 AM PDT · 9 of 11
    EternalHope to blam

    So... Enough vaccine may be ready by January(?) to inoculate 10,000 people.

    FIRST, this needs to be put in context:
    We could be looking at more than a million victims by January, with the number of victims more than doubling every month. It is probable that a situation like this will cause a complete breakdown of all infrastructure.

    SECOND, we don’t even know if the vaccine will work, or be safe enough to use. To put this in context:
    Most experimental vaccines do NOT work.
    There won’t have been enough time to find out if it is safe.

    THIRD, by January it will be too late to save the worst hit countries. To put this in context:

    If the vaccine is safe and works, how long does it take after getting the shot before the body has created meaningful immunity? (It could take a couple of weeks.)

    How long until a meaningful number of doses can be manufactured? (Most likely, quite a while.)

    How will a meaningful vaccination program be implemented, and how long will it take to do so? (It will take a long time, even if a way can be found to do so.)

    In other words, a vaccine, even IF it works, will be too little, too late, to help in the areas that are already hit.

    WHAT ELSE WILL BE HAPPENING BY JANUARY?
    Millions of people will be attempting to flee. Those financially able will attempt to flee by plane, boat, and car. The majority will attempt to flee on foot.

    So... If we find a workable vaccine, the best we can hope for is that it will be useful in protecting the rest of the world. Let’s hope and pray it works.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/19/2014 11:42:36 PM PDT · 2,270 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe
    The only defense against suffering such ugliness ourselves at home is to prevent the disease from ever getting loose on our shores.

    It will get to the slums of Lagos. Cairo. Mumbai. Mexico City.

    There will be millions of panicked refugees.

    Unless drastic measures are taken it will spread worldwide.

  • US troops heading into Africa soon for Ebola fight

    09/19/2014 9:11:05 PM PDT · 35 of 57
    EternalHope to Morgana

    Sending troops to help fight this may have helped if it had been done in May.

    It is clearly too little, too late, now.

    Some of America’s finest will die and we run the risk of bringing Ebola home, but Obama will be able to say he “did something”. Mission accomplished.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/19/2014 8:56:26 PM PDT · 2,262 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    The American CDC is now predicting up to 550,000 Ebola victims by the end of this year.

    You can argue over the numbers, but once the numbers get “big” it really does not matter. LONG BEFORE numbers that high are reached the general populations in the worst hit countries will panic. Infrastructure, such as it is, will surely break down. So will law and order. It will be panic fueled chaos.

    Desperate people will do desperate things. MANY will flee, and enough of them will be infected for this thing to spread.

    This should be obvious, but it bears repeating anyway.

  • Vanity - Ebola model projects future case based on Daily Transmission Rate

    09/18/2014 12:07:38 PM PDT · 148 of 152
    EternalHope to scouter

    It’s even more complex than that. A “real world” prediction requires some assumptions about how governments will respond, and how people at the individual level will respond. These responses will vary depending on the local culture and how the disease has progressed in that location.

    So... All things considered... Making a model of this is useful from a hypothetical “what if” standpoint, but not from a real world prediction standpoint.

    HOWEVER, the public has no clue how bad this could get. Most of the public, including many Freepers, are convinced this no big deal because the numbers currently being cited are not large relative to other diseases. Models such as yours can help overcome their ignorance and apathy.

  • Vanity - Ebola model projects future case based on Daily Transmission Rate

    09/17/2014 5:38:13 PM PDT · 144 of 152
    EternalHope to scouter

    Basically, you are showing what happens with exponential growth.

    Although I think your basic point is right, you missed some things that would greatly improve your model. (I used to teach statistics at the University level, and I still provide occasional expert witness work in the field. I’ve also done a bit of work with bio-statistics.)

    If you want to have a more accurate model you will need to add a way to separate the dead and the recovered from the currently infectious.

    You will also need to include a way to show growth slowing once the pool of uninfected people in a given area has shrunk significantly. Once a given area is wiped out there will be no more growth in cases from that location. A town can only die once.

    At this stage these issues do not make a lot of difference in the numbers. But once this thing gets really going they will become major points.

    If you want to get really complicated, and really SCARED, then give some thought to what happens when the medical system has been destroyed. How long it is from there until we have enforced movement restrictions. And how long the grid will hold up.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    09/08/2014 2:37:22 PM PDT · 1,758 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    There are MANY, MANY stories about Ebola patients being turned away from Ebola care centers because the centers are simply too full to take any more people. When these people are turned away they remain in the community and continue to infect people.

    To point out what should be obvious:

    The medical system has already been overwhelmed. Whatever impact medical care may have previously had in slowing down the spread of Ebola is now becoming increasingly irrelevant. We will soon see how fast it can spread without medical care to slow it down.

    In other words, the exponential increase we are already seeing is likely to accelerate even further.

    Any response with any hope of stopping this monster will need to consider how long the response will take to implement, and how big the problem will have become during that time (huge).

    I don’t see any indication that a response large enough to make any difference in what is now certain to be a huge outbreak will happen.

    Obama’s recent comments, in particular, are too little too late even if he actually does something (which is doubtful).

    If this is not stopped in west Africa it will spread. It will be in the slums of Lagos within months at the latest. Eventually it will be in the slums of Cairo, Mumbai, and Mexico City. You can bet it will not stop there.

    So...

  • THREAT MATRIX 2014 #1

    09/02/2014 1:22:28 PM PDT · 168 of 209
    EternalHope to KC_Lion

    Placemark

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    08/28/2014 6:23:36 PM PDT · 1,292 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    The news today is quite disheartening.

    Dogs are asymptomatic carriers?!!!

    A major study came out showing Ebola is mutating rapidly. And 5 of the 50 authors of the study have died of Ebola.

    Ebola is not under control ANYWHERE it has become established.

    The WHO is pulling people out for their own protection.

    And yet the WHO is confidently predicting outbreaks can be stopped within 7 weeks in any country that follows their great new advice, and the number of victims will top out at 20,000.

    Health care workers in particular need not worry. Just remember to wash your hands often, wear caps, gowns, gloves, surgical masks, and glasses and all will be well. Remember, Ebola is not airborne and only close contact can infect you.

    Words fail me.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    08/21/2014 3:32:11 PM PDT · 790 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Black Agnes

    Al Gore is not the only environmental extremist who would welcome a dramatic population reduction. It’s a surprisingly widespread view among his sort.

    Although they would welcome dramatic population reduction, I cannot imagine even the enviro wackos would deliberately launch something like Ebola (in spite of entertaining novels from Tom Clancy about them doing just that).

    But I can easily see how they would be just fine with letting Ebola run its course. As long as it stayed comfortably far away from them, of course.

    Normally I would dismiss such thoughts as too far out to even consider. But our response has been so pathetically poor that I’m beginning to wonder if that is what we are actually seeing.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    08/21/2014 3:11:31 PM PDT · 788 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    It’s time to vent.

    The international response to this has been less than pathetic.

    Doctors Without Borders is the ONLY major international group that has been making an all out effort to help with this. They have voluntarily put their own lives at risk, but their resources are not nearly adequate.

    WHO has been worse than a dirty joke at a funeral.

    The lack of meaningful tangible help from the West is no longer possible to ignore.

    I am disgusted and appalled.

    I also have to ask WHY?

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    08/17/2014 4:00:00 PM PDT · 570 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    I know transmission can be through an open cut and through mucous membranes. Biting flies would qualify.

    However, if transmission can be through contaminated food then flies become an even greater problem. Likewise for rodent contamination.

    I suspect Ebola can survive in the stomach or vomit would not be so contagious, so I suspect it can be spread through contaminated food. However, even if spread through food is unlikely once in the stomach, Ebola certainly can spread through mucous membranes. Hence it would be capable of infection while in the mouth.

    If contaminated food is a risk factor, what about contaminated water?

    Contaminated food and/or water would not be common early in the outbreak. Anyone who caught it early on would most likely have had close contact of some kind, so confirmed infection through food or water would be unlikely. But once the number of victims starts to rise the risk of more generalized contamination starts to rise.

    I could have missed it of course, but I have seen nothing in print that addresses this issue, including the medical literature. In past pandemics the dead bodies themselves were a source of further infection. We are not far enough in to this for that to be happening, yet, but the same thing could develop with Ebola.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    08/17/2014 2:58:33 PM PDT · 565 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    Bodies are already being left on the street.

    Flies will land on these bodies, pick up the virus, and then land elsewhere. Other insects, rodents, etc., have the same potential.

    I have yet to see a discussion of flies as a vector for Ebola. If they can spread the virus, as seems highly likely, then controlling Ebola in these regions is impossible.

  • Ebola Surveillance Thread

    08/10/2014 10:57:57 AM PDT · 68 of 2,784
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe

    Thanks for this thread Smokin’ Joe. It will be a great resource.

    Info in the medical community here in the U.S. is limited. Based on the information currently available, here’s what it seems to add up to right now:

    1. Most cases in Africa are never officially reported.
    The total number of cases is much higher than reported in the press.

    2. Although we do not know the actual numbers, they are low relative to the total population.

    3. We really know very little about this thing. About all we can say for certain is that it is NOT behaving the same way previous Ebola outbreaks have behaved, and that genetic sequencing shows changes that were not present in previous Ebola outbreaks.

    4. This time around it is not “burning itself out”. In the past it was rare for transmission chains to be more than three. That is one of the primary reasons previous outbreaks were limited in scope and duration.

    5. Local authorities in multiple African countries are trying to avoid panic. So far, widespread panic has been avoided. However, calling out the army to enforce movement restrictions is a worrisome sign.

    6. Perhaps the most critical piece of missing information is when an infected person becomes contagious. The OFFICIAL line is that it is very difficult to catch from someone unless they are symptomatic. However, the official line is based on previous Ebola outbreaks, not the current one.

    7. Worst case scenario: Based on simple statistics and the very limited amount we know so far, it will be late October or sometime in November before we see catastrophic numbers of cases in Africa. Let’s hope African medical systems and governments will be able to keep this from happening. If panic sets in the overall result will be worse.

    8. Obviously, Africa will be hit first. Unless something changes it seems certain to spread to the rest of the world as well.

  • Sarah Palin's new site is being blocked by Microsoft

    07/29/2014 12:24:16 PM PDT · 67 of 68
    EternalHope to EternalHope

    Her site will now open in Internet Explorer. Thanks to all who clicked on the “this site is safe” option in Internet Explorer when the red screen of death came up. Perhaps it helped.

    Not sure why, but I still cannot get her videos to play in Internet Explorer. I can with other browsers.

  • Sarah Palin's new site is being blocked by Microsoft

    07/29/2014 8:07:09 AM PDT · 23 of 68
    EternalHope to Izzy Dunne
    It may help if people go to the site and click on the "Report this site does not contain threats"

    There's no such item on the SarahPalinChannel.com site.

    It's not on her site. It's an option on the "SmartScreen Filter" Microsoft's Internet Explorer uses.

    I can go there in a different browser and get through. The only browser I know of that is blocking it is Internet Explorer.

    The videos will not play in Internet Explorer if you continue to the site anyway.

  • Sarah Palin's new site is being blocked by Microsoft

    07/29/2014 7:57:28 AM PDT · 9 of 68
    EternalHope to illiac

    The website is:
    sarahpalinchannel.com

    Can someone ping someone with a ping list so we can get some support for Sarah going on this?

  • Sarah Palin's new site is being blocked by Microsoft

    07/29/2014 7:51:19 AM PDT · 1 of 68
    EternalHope
    Enough people reporting the site as safe may help get it off Microsoft's black list.
  • Sarah Palin Launches Her Own TV Channel Online

    07/27/2014 8:48:51 PM PDT · 24 of 45
    EternalHope to TWhiteBear
    Just signed up.

    Go to:

    https://sarahpalinchannel.com/

    if you want to sign up.

  • 30 Signs That You’re One of Those “Crazy Preppers”

    06/24/2014 9:20:49 PM PDT · 28 of 53
    EternalHope to Kartographer

    I don’t have topo maps of the area around my home. How embarrassing!

    (But I will fix the problem...)

  • Sarah Palin ‘Waterboarding is How We Baptize Terrorists’

    04/27/2014 10:04:45 PM PDT · 18 of 58
    EternalHope to roughman
    I was water boarded during military survival training. It is unpleasant as hell, but not torture.

    So was I.

    Didn't leave a mark.

  • Saudi Arabia Confirms 20 New Cases of Deadly MERS Virus

    04/27/2014 10:17:30 AM PDT · 32 of 32
    EternalHope to Smokin' Joe; Kartographer; All
    MERS has shown a sudden and dramatic spike in Saudi Arabia, particularly Jeddah.

    The latest gene sequencing indicates no change in the virus, so presumably the spike in cases is due to some other cause.

    HOWEVER, it appears the samples were from cases that predated the current spike. How the samples were collected is also in question, with the possibility that they were NOT from victims of the current spike in cases.

    So... there is currently no medical confirmation of anything new with this virus, but that may not mean a lot.

    But there is no denying the big unexplained spike in cases. Based on my lying eyes, something has changed. We just don't know what.
    .
    .
    If MERS has suddenly become significantly more transmissible, then we could easily have another SARS type situation on our hands.

    Thus far it appears the known MERS cases outside Saudi Arabia are quarantined and the virus is not loose in the world at large.

    IF the virus has become easily transmissible, and this new version gets loose outside Saudi Arabia (Egypt?), then it will be clear fairly soon. It is way too soon to push the panic button. But this is certainly something to keep an eye on.

  • Ammo Prices: 4/18/2014

    04/19/2014 9:30:23 AM PDT · 8 of 19
    EternalHope to rktman

    It’s a good idea, but has a few weak spots.

    Suggestion #1:

    There are a huge range of options within each caliber. You might consider narrowing it down within each caliber to one or two brands of low end “practice” ammo. Brass casings only, and nothing in the truly junk category.

    This would create a consistent benchmark for comparison that is not distorted by vagaries on what kind of ammo happens to be available from each place at any given time. As you know, “self defense” ammo is often available at astronomical prices, but the stuff you could actually afford to shoot at the range cannot be found.

    Suggestion #2:

    If you realize the need to practice, but are not rich enough to buy ammo at today’s prices, consider air guns. Quality these days is very high. They are MUCH quieter, and in most cases you can set up a range at home. They are not considered a firearm, yet. Pellet prices are going up, but they are still affordable.

    If you are looking at small game, you can buy a silenced pellet rifle that will fire pellets with impact similar to a silenced .22LR rifle using subsonic ammo.

    I have a VERY accurate .25 pellet rifle that puts out 110 fpe. If that’s not enough, you can buy a bigger bore rifle with more power, but you lose accuracy, the noise goes way up, and the cost of the pellets goes way up as well.

  • Ukraine Claims 100,000 Russian Troops Near Border

    03/27/2014 2:00:57 PM PDT · 113 of 152
    EternalHope to Strategy

    According to Obama this must be further proof of Russian weakness.

  • How World Vision Can Regain Trust (After it Reverses Its Decision to Support Gay Marriage)

    03/27/2014 8:12:40 AM PDT · 9 of 44
    EternalHope to SeekAndFind

    Their “mistake” was not done casually. The people who made this decision must have a radically different view of Christianity than my wife and I do or they could never have made this decision in the first place.

    Their action was reversed quickly, but only after they realized they had just chased away a big part of their donor base. Their press release was good, but actual repentance by their leaders is suspect.

    Personally, it looks like rot at the top to us.

    Unless heads role over this we will reduce and/or eliminate our contributions to what we thought was a fine organization.

  • Before and After: Photos Show Mudslide's Destruction [60 Miles N.E. From Seattle]

    03/25/2014 12:54:09 AM PDT · 26 of 27
    EternalHope to 21twelve

    Very interesting link. Thanks for posting.

    The article makes the point that engineers SHOULD have known this was a dangerous area, at least according to some experts. Obviously the experts who warned of the danger were ignored. The people who lived there thought it was safe, as did (apparently) all of the people who have been giving news conferences the last few days.

    Interestingly, the escarpment on the slide this week was 600 feet high (!), four times higher than the previous high for this spot. I have to wonder if the efforts to shore up the slope kept it from having a series of smaller slides that would have periodically relieved the stress, with a single, much bigger slide as the end result.

    I’m not surprised people wanted to build there. It is an amazingly beautiful area. Plus you can fish from your backyard. Salmon and steelhead. What’s not to like?

    We live in a similar place, including fishing from our backyard. We love our location although it is not quite as scenic. Our house is way above the flood plain, and it would take a slide similar to the one at Oso to reach us.

    Update on the death toll: They have now found 14 bodies, and the missing person list is up to 176. Hopefully some of the missing people will turn up, but it’s clear a whole lot of people died.

  • Before and After: Photos Show Mudslide's Destruction [60 Miles N.E. From Seattle]

    03/24/2014 4:03:07 PM PDT · 15 of 27
    EternalHope to 21twelve

    After the slide in 2006 extensive work was done to stabilize the slope. The engineers thought the problem was solved.

    Not only did everyone think the problem was solved, no one could imagine a slide this big even if it were NOT solved.

    Guess they were wrong. Big time.

  • Before and After: Photos Show Mudslide's Destruction [60 Miles N.E. From Seattle]

    03/24/2014 2:32:19 PM PDT · 7 of 27
    EternalHope to zeestephen

    I live a few miles from there. It’s an incredibly beautiful area.

    As of now there are 8 confirmed dead but 108 reports of additional missing persons. The 108 is a very fluid number. The death toll may end up less than this, but they have 180 “possibles” on their list. There is nearly zero chance that anyone is left alive in the slide area.

    There were 49 parcels of land with structures on them in the slide area. The disaster response team does not know for sure, but an estimated 25 homes were believed to be occupied at the time of the slide. Everything in the slide area is totally destroyed.

    Anyone in a car in the slide area is also dead. No one knows how many that would be.

    The slide dammed the river, creating a small lake upstream of the slide. The lake has risen enough for the water to have found a channel out and the lake level is now stable. The last I heard there were 6 homes flooded by the new lake.

    Right now it is dry. Relatively light rain is predicted to start tonight and showery weather will continue for the rest of the week. Heavier rain is possible Friday.

    The source of the slide is still unstable, with small amounts of additional “stuff” still sliding down (I watched one happen). If the additional rain is hard enough to cause much additional material to come down then the new river channel would also be blocked (it is at the base of the slide area, NOT on the far side of the slide). Blocking the river at the same time the river is rising due to heavy rain would be a very bad thing.

    We don’t normally expect to make national news around here, but I had a friend email me from Europe this morning asking me for details. So I guess we’ve made the news.

  • Bracken: When The Music Stops – How America’s Cities May Explode In Violence (EBT SHTF scenario)

    03/24/2014 12:04:47 PM PDT · 42 of 113
    EternalHope to freedumb2003

    Good read. Thanks for posting.

    Personally I think the scenario described is overly optimistic. That level of chaos would lead to loss of electricity, which would lead to loss of water, sewer, and everything else.

    In particular, everyone who did not have access to water would panic within days. This would result in quickly spreading chaos. The death rate would be very high, with no chance of quickly restoring order.

    Hunger would be close behind, followed shortly by dread diseases we have not seen in this country for generations.

    Apparently the U.S. government has modeled this situation on a national level. The 3rd hand reports I have seen on these studies have a worst case death rate as high as 99% by the end of the first year. I have no direct knowledge of these studies, but it is easy to see how this could happen.

    Let’s hope and pray this does not happen. But it most definitely could.

  • Need help with solar power

    03/21/2014 7:28:01 AM PDT · 53 of 103
    EternalHope to Shaun_MD
    Thing is, I have limited funds to buy this stuff lol.

    Most of us have the same problem...

    I'd put what you have together, make sure it works. It's not as easy as you might think.

    Then I'd add more solar panels and batteries as the money becomes available. You need at least one more battery and two more panels before you need to expand the other parts of your system, so right now at least part of the initial cost is covered.

  • Need help with solar power

    03/21/2014 7:07:47 AM PDT · 25 of 103
    EternalHope to Shaun_MD

    You need lots more solar panel capacity, plus lots more battery storage capacity.

    You have a single 100 watt solar panel. You can calculate its output, roughly, by: Watts = amps x volts.

    So 8.33 amps x 12 volts = 100 watts.

    In other words, the solar panel you have will put out about 8 amps.

    You’ve got a good start with your inverter and your charge controller, but you need at least 2 more panels and at least one more battery to utilize your inverter and charge controller capacity. And that will not be nearly enough to power the things you listed.

    I’ve got my own 12 volt system. I have 375 watts of charging capacity, but here in the Pacific NW we tend to have a few cloudy days...

    Even on a cloudy day I get some power, but not nearly the rated amount. I can run a pellet stove for a few hours, recharge batteries for flashlights and lanterns, and recharge batteries for a low power laptop. That’s about it.

  • 2016 Republican Presidential Update: A New, Familiar Name at the Top: Jeb Bush Leads the Pack.

    03/20/2014 7:36:30 PM PDT · 18 of 65
    EternalHope to SeekAndFind

    NO WAY will I ever vote for Jeb Bush.

  • Barter Goods

    03/20/2014 7:33:34 PM PDT · 6 of 45
    EternalHope to Kartographer

    If a total reset is in store then I don’t think barter will be an issue for a while. Just surviving while the locusts swarm out of their holes will be difficult enough.

    AFTER the swarm has burned itself out barter may become relevant. Until then, self defense and keeping a low profile are the order of the day.

    (Let’s hope it isn’t a total reset.)

  • Take These Steps Today To Survive An International Crisis

    03/20/2014 6:23:01 PM PDT · 8 of 57
    EternalHope to Kartographer

    For those with eyes to see, the signs are everywhere. The vast majority of the people who will eventually prep have already started.

    If you haven’t, then today would be a good day to start. But if you are reading this then I’m pretty sure you have already begun. This thread is preaching to the choir.

    For those few people on this thread who are still on the fence about prepping:

    If you wait until it is obvious that the “time to prep has come”, you will find that millions of other people have come to the same conclusion at the same time.

    At that point it will be too late.

  • Original tea partyers returning to GOP fold

    03/09/2014 10:17:02 PM PDT · 13 of 79
    EternalHope to 2ndDivisionVet

    The GOPe and me are done for good.

    I rather fight a known enemy than have to watch my back against an enemy who pretends to be my friend.

  • A Run On Ammunition Has Begun:

    03/06/2014 10:48:20 PM PST · 49 of 96
    EternalHope to Kartographer

    Ammo is incredibly expensive, if you can even get it.

    Reloading supplies are incredibly expensive, if you can get them.

    You can still get pellets and pellet guns. Lots of options too. Very accurate.

    Great for practice. Great for teaching new shooters to shoot. Great for small game, especially in .22 or .25 caliber.

    Not great for self defense, but better than nothing.

    Not sure how long until the run starts on pellets...

  • Super Megaliths

    03/02/2014 12:15:55 AM PST · 11 of 30
    EternalHope to SunkenCiv

    Wow!

    Thanks for posting!

  • Food Rationing: It Will Break You Down Mentally

    02/28/2014 11:08:10 AM PST · 72 of 107
    EternalHope to Sherman Logan
    Just curious. Potatoes are really cheap. It would seem logical to me to buy potatoes at the store and use my limited garden space to grow more expensive stuff.

    You can't buy potato seeds. You have to already have potatoes in order to grow more of them. If we are in a SHTF situation it will help to have some naturally grown potatoes in storage if you plan to grow more.

    There are other things to think about too. The potatoes in the store have generally been treated with something to keep them from sprouting. This makes them difficult to use in your garden. Potatoes from the supermarket may also be more susceptible to potato blight.

    If you decide to grow potatoes, I suggest you buy seed potatoes that are certified to be disease free. (See, I learned at least a bit about this before giving it a try. Just not enough...)

  • Food Rationing: It Will Break You Down Mentally

    02/28/2014 10:54:38 AM PST · 66 of 107
    EternalHope to bgill
    I fully expect hussein to pull something at any moment so a good day is any day he hasn’t. Our GOP isn’t going to bat an eye when it happens as they’ve plotted and planned right along with him.

    I agree, but think they are trying to "set the stage" first. When he makes his move it will be more likely to succeed if it can be spun as a rescue rather than the final move in the establishment of a dictatorship. The media, Hollywood, academia, and liberals in general will go along with it if he can give them a plausible excuse.

    The reason I think time is short is that I do not believe he will risk losing his window of opportunity through a huge electoral loss this November. So if things look bleak for the Democrats this summer I expect him to make his move before he loses the Senate.

    If he is not at risk of losing control of Congress, then I think we may have another year or so before it happens.

    Regardless of the timing, I simply cannot see Obama going away peacefully. If he cannot keep power he will burn the house down on his way out the door.

  • Food Rationing: It Will Break You Down Mentally

    02/28/2014 10:41:43 AM PST · 64 of 107
    EternalHope to Sherman Logan

    Thanks for the calorie per acre info. All I knew was that the Russians considered potatoes the best choice if you were limited by space.

    I haven’t got growing them figured out yet, but someone else on this thread has been kind enough to give me some tips. I’ll also spend some time lurking on the gardening thread.

    Apparently even apartment dwellers can grow potatoes if they have a deck with sunlight and know what they are doing. Emphasis on “know what they are doing”. I clearly do NOT, but MIGHT be teachable...

  • Food Rationing: It Will Break You Down Mentally

    02/27/2014 6:25:20 PM PST · 11 of 107
    EternalHope to Kartographer

    Learn how to garden. Consider potatoes, one of the best sources of both calories and nutrition (be sure to eat the skin too).

    In the days of communism, the Russians encouraged their people to grow potatoes on the little plots of land the commissars gave their higher ranking worker bees. Supposedly potatoes gave more calories and nutrition than anything else that could be grown in that amount of land.

    So... We tried growing potatoes last year and failed miserably. We DID get some potatoes, but not nearly as many as we should have.

    We’ll try again this year and hopefully do better.

    Moral of this story: Learn now, when you can afford to make mistakes. It ain’t as easy as it looks...
    .
    .
    .
    Different topic: Everyone wants to know WHEN the SHTF will start. None of us knows, but I personally believe time is short.

    One reason is that Obama is at risk of losing control of the Senate, and many of the new guys will not be the spineless weaklings we call “Republicans” now. Obama can not tolerate opposition, and will not tolerate losing power.

    Obama has laid the foundation for social chaos, and could trigger it at will. He has also built the domestic army he needs to impose marital law in response. This could even keep him in power indefinitely, but would need to be done before he loses control of Congress.

    Yes, I think he would stoop that low. In fact I’m SURE he would if he felt he could pull it off.

    If he decides to make a move like that he will need to do it relatively soon. No later than this summer.

    I do not know if he will actually do this, but I think it prudent to set a goal of being “ready” no later than July.

    Something else could be coming instead, or multiple things at once. But there is one thing I’m sure of:

    Something wicked this way comes.

    Be ready.

  • An Open Letter to the Legislative Tyrants of Connecticut.

    02/27/2014 1:04:25 PM PST · 16 of 22
    EternalHope to Nachum

    I hope it does not come to this.

    Molon Labe.