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Posts by HamiltonJay

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  • Was Scalia poisoned ?

    02/13/2016 9:21:50 PM PST · 41 of 95
    HamiltonJay to libh8er

    “And then he wakes up dead”?????????


  • (vanity) Will you vote for the Republican nominee if it isn't your first choice candidate?

    02/13/2016 9:15:56 PM PST · 45 of 140
    HamiltonJay to RC one

    If it is a candidate who supports open borders, h1b expansion, and common core, horrific trade deals with 3rd world nations and despots then the answer is nope... I’ll stay home. I will no longer be party to contributing to the destruction of this nation and the dumbing down of her children, for the big money backers benefit.

    I’ve pulled the lever too many times only to be betrayed, I won’t do it again.

  • LIVE THREAD: CBS Republican Presidential Debate - 02/13/16 @ 9PM (EST)

    02/13/2016 9:09:43 PM PST · 2,770 of 3,088
    HamiltonJay to jospehm20

    As much Drama Queen nonsense as most are posting here, this debate changed nothing... no Rubioesque self inflicted gun shot wounds to the head by Trump (though some here seem to incorrectly thin he did) and no grand slams by Cruz..

    Their numbers will remain effectively unchanged. Among Bush/Rubio/Kasich bunch up a few points may shift after this, but in terms of the top of the heap, this debate changed nothing, as much as the screeching by supporters of various candidates wish it may.

    I hate to break this to the Cruz backers, but Trump is not going to shoot himself in the head like Rubio did, and if Cruz wants to take him out, he has to deliver a headshot, Trump is not going to die a death of a thousand cuts, or be brought down by a body blow or two.

    As long as Trump is in the race Cruz is locked in no better than 2nd place, his campaign of ideological purity for the conservative cause isn’t going to break him out, this election is not about ideological purity... rarely is it. For Cruz to get higher nationally he’s got to get rid of Trump, and frankly I don’t think has the skills to do it... without him in the race, maybe he could pull off the nomination, but even then I am dubious of his chances. With Trump around, Cruz’s chances are nil for the nomination.

    Cruz has a nice lock on the ideological voting block, but as you are seeing, that isn’t enough to win an primary.. in fact, it never has been. If that’s all you get to support you, you lose the primary. That can anger you all you like, but that’s just how the numbers play out.

    Here’s some more truth for EVERYONE.... until Trump or Cruz get above 45% in the national polling independently the establishment candidate is NOT LOCKED OUT. As long as Trump and Cruz combine to 60% of the vote or less and neither is independently at 45% or better, all it takes is the establishment bloc to finally coalesce and the race is theirs.. We are not past the point of that happening yet.

    Honestly I think you are going to see Trump top that 45% nationally shortly, but until one of them does, the path that an establishment candidate wins by plurality is a very real scenario.

  • Can Republicans really block Obama’s Supreme Court nomination for a year? Probably.

    02/13/2016 5:53:54 PM PST · 56 of 83
    HamiltonJay to SMGFan

    Can they, sure... Will they? They haven’t fought Obama with no mercy once... So color me doubtful.

  • Beating Trump in Debate (NRO Delusional with Rage)

    02/13/2016 8:44:25 AM PST · 67 of 163
    HamiltonJay to Windy City Conservative

    NRO and the other estblishment pundits just don’t get it. This election isn’t about conservatism vs liberalism. The betrayal of both parties of the American people and the American ideal make such arguments stupid in the electorate. It makes no difference which party has won and the ideals they claim to embrace because either way they both sell th nation and her people out.

    So another election of liberal va conservative is what the uniparty wants... But Trump just blew that all to hell, by presenting and offering Americanism first. That is what this election is about America First. You can try to attack Trump for not adhering to stringent conservative principals and it won’t matter. Trump isn’t taking out folks by arguing their conservative credentials.

    This election is about America, and that’s why Trumps support is wider and deeper than any of the pundits realize. They can misrepresent Trump any way they want... Trump have never argued single payer, he has argued for universal health care, never single payer. But that isn’t going to matter anyway.

    You can argue, conservatism vs liberalism when both are in the context of America first... When neither are putting American first, the argument is irrelevant. That’s what is going on this election and the elites and pundits are just clueless.

  • Trump Jumps to 44% Nationally, Rubio Drops to 10%

    02/12/2016 11:14:10 AM PST · 34 of 95
    HamiltonJay to Rockitz

    Trump hits 45% nationally even if the establishment coalesces on a candidate, he’s going to win the nomination. At that point the math becomes pretty much impossible for an establishment candidate to win.

  • Polls: Cruz Would Fare 5 Points Better Versus Clinton Than Trump Would

    02/12/2016 10:25:23 AM PST · 171 of 198
    HamiltonJay to GodGunsGuts

    Look at the 2012 map and tell me which states you thing Cruz flips? He needs 64.. Where does Cruz get them? Oh, Fl? Then what? Maybe va? And still one more. No VA and he has to nearly run the table of the swing states for a win.

    Winning southern states by 60% vs 52% may get you a higher percentage of the popular vote but doesn’t win you one more ec vote.

    Trump opens the map, Cruz, Jeb, Rubio etc do not.

  • Poll: Trump Stretches Lead to 27 Points; Sanders 7 Points Behind Clinton

    02/12/2016 8:21:13 AM PST · 63 of 157
    HamiltonJay to xzins

    Have had to hear how Trump support has a plateau, but its Cruz that has a peak.

    The punditry is still so misreading this cycle that its scary.

    Trump will continue to grow his lead methodically nationally, and once he hits 45% or so, even if the establishment coalesces around a candidate, they can’t win the nomination.

    With every victory Trump will gain a few more points... THe only state where Trump may lose the nomination would be maybe TX at this point. Cruz’s home state show him with a 6 point lead last polls I checked, but I bet next set of polls will show that lead shrinking.

  • Trump Holds Massive 31 Point Lead Over Rubio in Massachusetts – 43-12%

    02/12/2016 8:13:34 AM PST · 5 of 33
    HamiltonJay to C19fan

    If you think Rubio or Cruz will win Mass in the General Election, please pass down what you are smoking.

  • 'Death by GPS' in desert

    02/12/2016 6:56:25 AM PST · 120 of 182
    HamiltonJay to mad_as_he$$

    I have run across dozens if not hundreds of mistakes on maps in my lifetime, fortunately have been in situations that are life threatening.

    I agree with the cautionary tale of not going into places like Death Valley relying simply on a rented cars GPS, but maps are no guarantee of accuracy. If anything the fact that GPS’s exist probably has helped make most maps more accurate as now there are millions of people daily using the data, and money to be made by making sure the data is accurate.

    I have seen a huge improvement in map data in the last 10 years myself, because now they actually have folks walking and or driving the actual roads every few years validating the data that was on some survey map from 50 or 75 years ago is actually correct... often it was not. Paper streets, one ways, legal streets that are steps, etc etc... all of which 10 years ago would just show up as a road on a map but be incorrect or impassible by vehicle, and sometiems even by walking a paper street that never was finished which is now woods. etc etc.

  • 'Death by GPS' in desert

    02/12/2016 4:47:34 AM PST · 105 of 182
    HamiltonJay to dp0622

    Maps can be wrong too... People have been winding up lost long before technology.

  • Viguerie: ‘Only Cruz Has Potential to Unite The Party;’ ‘Trump Can’t Unite Conservatives’

    02/11/2016 11:44:52 AM PST · 145 of 381
    HamiltonJay to GodGunsGuts

    Trump won Independents in NH< and he’s going to win them in every open primary state.... So, what does that tell you about your likability? If Trump is such a liberal as many want to claim, tell me, why is he the most hated by Democrats?

    This sort of argument is nonsense... You think numbers aren’t fluid? You think if it comes down to 1 on 1 Trump V Clinton in 9 months from now, that these numbers are going to be the same? Back whenever it was he announced, he was considered a punchline... he just won NH huge, and is on track to win SC big as well...

    You really think Hillary or Bernie can beat Trump because some survey tells you something like this? Then you have ZERO understanding of human nature. You put Trump in the same room as Hillary any day of the week and Hillary is overshadowed every single time. There was only one other player in this race that had the X factor besides Trump, and that was Christie, and he’s out.

    Trump negatives, trumps negatives, trumps negatives.. this is like listening to Rubio folks trying to make this argument. They fail to understand just how dynamic Trump is in person and on TV... Based on your chart there, Carson and Cruz should be owning the primary season.... yet, Carson is pretty much done, and Cruz only polls on top in TX and only by about a handful of points.

  • Viguerie: ‘Only Cruz Has Potential to Unite The Party;’ ‘Trump Can’t Unite Conservatives’

    02/11/2016 11:35:37 AM PST · 127 of 381
    HamiltonJay to Durbin

    Trump won EVERY SINGLE DEMOGRAPHIC in NH... Every single one... and he’s going to do the same thing in SC.... Cruz can preach to the Chior, Trump is reaching the Congregation... That’s the thing that so many people have failed to realize about Trump... and it was obvious early on.

    He’s reaching people all over the political map.. Cruz gets the faithful, that’s about it, and he doesn’t even get those completely.

  • Cleveland wants Tamir Rice's family to pay $500 for his final ambulance ride

    02/11/2016 10:33:01 AM PST · 20 of 21
    HamiltonJay to RightOnTheBorder

    If this is a City ambulance, its the same provider that put the bullets in the kid... This isn’t a situation of a private company looking to be paid.

    This city is run by idiots. But hey, ya’s got Lebron back.. be proud.

  • Donald Trump’s Campaign Pulls a Negative Ad on Ted Cruz [Trump going 'nice' in SC]

    02/11/2016 10:29:19 AM PST · 37 of 95
    HamiltonJay to reegs

    Either that, or he’s comfortable with his lead, and doesn’t has decided that the showdown with Cruz can wait until later. When you have the lead, you have many more options than when you are trying to gain it.

  • SC Poll: Trump 32, Cruz 26, Rubio 20, Bush 10

    02/11/2016 9:56:44 AM PST · 40 of 92
    HamiltonJay to GodGunsGuts

    Your logic is flawed my friend... your just telling yourself a story, and looking for any external validation.

    Its just like the two hippies who after learning McGovern had lost to Nixon in a 49 state landslide, they looked at each other and said, how can that be? we don’t know anyone who voted for him.

    Like you those two hippies never talked to the right people, just because you saw a focus group without a Trump supporter in it, doesn’t mean that it was representative of the electorate.

    We will know shortly who will be the victor in SC, right now, I personally see zero indication that Cruz will be in the winners circle. He’ll certainly do better than he did in NH, but not seeing anything to convince me he’s going to overcome a 16 or more point deficit in the next 8 or 9 days to win the state.

  • SC Poll: Trump 32, Cruz 26, Rubio 20, Bush 10

    02/11/2016 9:49:40 AM PST · 36 of 92
    HamiltonJay to goldstategop

    I could eat crow, but I really think writing Jeb’s epitaph is a bit premature... I don’t like the guys policies at all and I won’t vote for him under any circumstances... but I really don’t think Rubio can recover from the self inflicted head wound he gave himself last debate.

    Jeb isn’t a well oiled machine yet, but he certainly seems to have turned a corner and regained his footing. HE was out of politics for a while, he clearly had ring rust on, and hadn’t adapted to the times, and then was punched hard by Trump out of the gate, but I really would not write him off as dead yet.

    Rubio’s debate debacle is far worse in my mind than anything Jeb has done on the campaign trail to date in terms of harming their overall odds.

    Time will tell.

  • MARCO RUBIO IN 2ND PLACE IN FLORIDA, NEW POLL FINDS (Jeb polls at 4% and in 5th place)

    02/11/2016 9:41:21 AM PST · 106 of 119
    HamiltonJay to jimbo123

    So Rubio has now fallen to third is his home state? The Bud Dwyer repercussions continue.... Even Ted Cruz is managing to win his home state polls at this point.

    Rubio will continue to fall IMHO, I could eat crow and he could somehow save himself, but that exchange with Christie is literally so damning, I just don’t see how. Political Science majors will be studying that exchange for decades. It truly was a political Bud Dwyer moment.

  • MARCO RUBIO IN 2ND PLACE IN FLORIDA, NEW POLL FINDS (Jeb polls at 4% and in 5th place)

    02/11/2016 9:28:32 AM PST · 103 of 119
    HamiltonJay to Durbin

    Yep, Bush will still be around come Florida if I had to put money on it. Rubio’s Bud Dwyer in the NH debate sunk him. Time will tell, but I see no way he comes back.. he had his moment coming out of IA, and he blew it.

    I don’t like either of them, but I honestly would not write Bush off. I personally thought Christie was the only mainstream establishment guy who could stand toe to toe against Trump and have at least a chance of beating him head to head, but don’t think for one moment that Bush is out of this thing yet, as much as I may dislike his stands on many things, he’s not going away.

  • MARCO RUBIO IN 2ND PLACE IN FLORIDA, NEW POLL FINDS (Jeb polls at 4% and in 5th place)

    02/11/2016 9:23:51 AM PST · 102 of 119
    HamiltonJay to jimbo123

    Poll doesn’t include any data after Rubio pulled his Bud Dwyer... I would like to see the numbers now.. Rubio’s not even winning his home state in polling.

  • The Mask Is Off: Trump Blames Conservatives For GOP Betrayals

    02/11/2016 8:57:43 AM PST · 34 of 171
    HamiltonJay to TBBT

    Wow, talk about spin... this his exact tweet:

    “Remember, it was the Republican Party, with the help of Conservatives, that made so many promises to their base, BUT DIDN’T KEEP THEM! Hi DT”

    That’s a patently true statement.. this article is laughable.

  • Carson: I think I can win South Carolina

    02/11/2016 7:47:52 AM PST · 52 of 61
    HamiltonJay to petercooper

    Was obviously over his head from day one, and really should have gotten better counsel before getting in in the first place.

  • Dana Loesch: If Carson Doesn't Drop Out, It Means He's in It for Himself

    02/11/2016 7:45:47 AM PST · 48 of 78
    HamiltonJay to TexasCruzin

    Good to know.

  • Dana Loesch: If Carson Doesn't Drop Out, It Means He's in It for Himself

    02/11/2016 7:26:03 AM PST · 21 of 78
    HamiltonJay to Helicondelta

    Carson will probably stay through SC... maybe into Super Tuesday, but can’t imagine him going much further than that... money will run out, same thing with Carly.

  • Rubio eyes brokered convention after NH setback

    02/11/2016 6:57:41 AM PST · 26 of 27
    HamiltonJay to dennisw

    I Honestly think Rubio is done, He had his moment, and then he committed the political equivalent of a Bud Dwyer, shooting himself in the head on national TV in that debate in NH. I think the establishment vote will now coalesce around someone else, Rubio had his chance, and blew it spectacularly.

  • Cruz: "The Only Person In This Field Who Can Beat Donald Trump Is Me"

    02/11/2016 6:54:55 AM PST · 86 of 92
    HamiltonJay to Biggirl

    In Iowa Caucuses and Maybe Texas.... that’s not a formula for a win there Cruz.

    Cruz wants the establishment to back him because without the establishment voters he can’t beat Trump in the primary... So the fact the’s trying to woo them isn’t surprising, but it also means that to get it, he’s going to basically become the establishment candidate, whether he publicly admits it or not.

    Trump could just as easily end Cruz by becoming the establishment candidate as well... Somehow though I think Trump will wind up beating Cruz without signing up for all that baggage.

  • $15 minimum wage would create $6.5 billion for NYC economy, state report says

    02/10/2016 7:11:39 PM PST · 68 of 91
    HamiltonJay to BenLurkin

    Help a little shy of a million and end up costing I would estimate somewhere in the 200k-300k their jobs. So 200-300k more unemployed so that 900k have a better wage....

    There is no doubt increasing wages helps some, but it hurts others, that’s the point. So which is a better overall solution? More folks working for less, or less people working for more? When you are talking entry level work, its very hard to argue that less people working is a good thing, you have to have as many people as possible have the opportunity to enter and grow in the work force... restricting this opportunity will disproportionately hurt those who are the most vulnerable.

    Raise the minimum wage, I won’t lose my job over it because I have developed skills and experience and am far past the entry level.. sure I will have to pay more for some things, but I won’t lose my job or access to more opportunities.... But raise the wage, you contract the opportunities available for those who have the least skills and are newest to the job force... This is not looking out for the little guy, its harming them.

  • Is Cruz the frontrunner now?

    02/10/2016 6:54:08 PM PST · 118 of 120
    HamiltonJay to Lakeshark

    I am amazed, unless its someones first election cycle, they are just beyond ignorant if they think IA is ever remotely accurate.. Its always off by a country mile... ALWAYS. Anyone citing IA polling as an argument for ANYTHING is ill informed or completely inexperienced.

    To then supposition that because IA polls are inaccurate that others will be defacto is flat out nonsense.

    Anyone claiming Cruz is the front runner right now, is living on emotion, not reality. Only state I’ve seen where he is leading is TX, his home state, and even there his lead is single digits... in ever other state that I’ve seen polling out of, he’s behind Trump and most of them by 10+ points. To claim Cruz is the FrontRunner when faced with those data points show a “willful suspension of disbelief”... which makes me wonder why they aren’t supporting Hillary since they are living her line from the 2008 election cycle.

    Seriously, I am not attacking Cruz here, but there is just no way you can make an argument that he’s the front runner, will he do better in the south, absolutely he will.. but the idea he’s on the verge of winning it all is just not supported by the facts.

  • Is Cruz the frontrunner now?

    02/10/2016 6:44:26 PM PST · 117 of 120
    HamiltonJay to A Conservative Thinker

    Will Cruz do better in SC than he did in NH? Almost certainly... I have always said I think Cruz will do well in traditionally red states, but does that mean he’s going to win their primaries? I don’t see it, not as long as Trump is in the race.

    You seem to think that the polls being off in IA signified something, it didn’t. IA polling is NOTORIOUSLY off every cycle. The caucus system by its very nature makes it nearly impossible for accurate polls, and for the outside type candidate to win, because its not a secret ballot situation, its a situation where you are going be publicly known to support this guy or that guy, and peer pressure is applied etc etc. I told anyone who was willing to listen that Trump was a long shot in IA, had he won IA that honestly would have signified the biggest upset that probably could be... he did very well there, better than he should have, which signifies far more depth and breadth to his general support than pundits are still willing to accept.

    I also predicted, once the primaries moved to traditional voting places, the polls would be more reliable, and Trump would do better. And low and behold, Polls in NH were for the most part spot on, the one place they were off were on Rubio, mostly because they didn’t have time to poll after he gave himself a gun shot to the head in the debates.

    SC Polls will also be pretty much spot on, and if they are, the expectation that Cruz is going to magically change the dynamic in the next 9 days is pretty wishful thinking, and emotion not logic. Trump is polling in SC at nearly twice Cruz’s numbers. Cruz will certainly do better in SC than he did in NH, but he’s not going to rise 16 or 17 points in the polls in a week, Trump in SC is running about the same as NH right now around mid 30s in the polls, Cruz is running high teens to twenty. Its 9:30pm on the 10th, polls open on 20th, so in effectively 9 days you honestly think Cruz is going to close and overtake that gap? Based on what?

    The latest polling is post IA, any momentum gained from winning there has already gotten baked in... Trump will get momentum from his NH win, and none of that has even been captured in the polling. What events do you think are going to happen in the next few days that is going to swing the electorate in a major way?? A Debate? Trump isn’t Rubio, he’s not going to pull a political Bud Dwyer. An attack ad? What? What do you think is going to happen or that Ted Cruz has up his sleeve that is going to miraculously turn this tide in SC?

    I am not saying this as someone who hates Cruz, I am saying this as someone looking at the dynamics of this race today. Yes SC has more evangelicals... but guess what? Trump won those in NH, so you can’t just say well the south has a lot of evangelicals so Cruz will win them all... that’s just stupid, and not backed up by anything. The only state, I am aware of, where Ted Cruz outpolls Trump right now, and I may be wrong, but the only one I know of is Texas, Cruz’s home state... and even there his lead is single digits.

    This Cruz is the lead dog argument is a very silly one to make at this point.

    Obviously time will tell, and if I am forced to eat crow, I will, but I am pretty sure when the votes get tallied in SC, Trump will be on top with a pretty sizable lead. Cruz will do better than he did in NH, no argument about that, but he’s not going to unseat Trump.... Time will tell if I am right.

  • Is Cruz the frontrunner now?

    02/10/2016 6:20:12 PM PST · 114 of 120
    HamiltonJay to 2ndDivisionVet

    Wishful thinking.... Trump will continue to win as long as the establishment vote is fractured.

    Trump and Cruz will be heading to a showdown, as neither are highly likely to win in a 3 way race. Sooner or later one of them has to take out the other, or the highly probable scenario is the establishment coalesces around someone and they wind up winning.

    Not a guarantee how it will go down, the most likely scenario if it goes to a 3 way race.

    Of the 2 (Trump and Cruz), Trump is the most likely of the two to get his numbers up to a point that even if it is a 3 way he can win states, Cruz, I just don’t see him winning another state as long as Trump in around, and frankly I don’t think Cruz can take Trump out.

    For all the hemming and hawing over the establishment turmoil, there is still a very very real scenario where they wind up winning the whole deal.

    If I had to put odds on this, Trump or Cruz or an establishment Republican, Cruz by far has the longest odds of those 3 scenarios. I’d put Trump over the establishment guy in at 3 to 2. I think Trump is still being massively underestimated by the establishment.

    But make no mistake about it, the idea that the establishment is vanquished at this point is not remotely guaranteed. Eventually they will coalesce around a single candidate, and if Cruz and Trump are still slogging it with their combined totals topping around 55-60% and neither of them independently getting over 40%, the establishment guy just slowly wins the slog.

    Time will tell.

  • Why Ted Cruz is now the Republican front-runner

    02/10/2016 4:24:55 PM PST · 230 of 240
    HamiltonJay to JSDude1

    My friend I grew up in North Carolina, most of my family still lives in North Carolina, my very first political event was a Jessie Helms rally in the town I lived in grade school, I am there quite frequently and I am telling you you are deluding yourself if you think in 9 days Cruz is going to double his poll numbers and Trumps are going to fall in half or more.

    None of what you have put forth is anything new, do you think voters who are supporting Trump don’t know Trump? Trump is more known than anyone in the running, he’s been broadcast weekly into their homes for over a decade etc etc etc. Do you think any of what you have put forth isn’t something the majority of folks in SC supporting Trump don’t already know??? He isn’t some no name congressman that no one knows, you aren’t going to see him fall because folks have projected on him traits because they don’t know him.. This is part of why the many attempts by the press to Gotcha Trump have failed.

    The arguments you are making don’t hold water, Cruz won’t get anywhere near Trumps poll numbers let along beat him by 7 or more points.

    You are arguing on emotion not logic. Cruz has zero chance of suddenly doubling his polling, let along believe he’s going to do it at the expense of Trump.

    Cruz will do better in SC than he did in NH, no doubt about it. But if you thing Cruz is going to double his numbers in 9 days while at the same time Trumps collapse you don’t know SC voters nearly as well as you think you do.

    Time will tell, in 9 days we can revisit this thread and see who has to eat crow.

  • MSM Chasing Rubio 'Mistress Bomb:' But Is There More Than One? (Marco Rubio Rumors Ramp Up)

    02/10/2016 1:50:56 PM PST · 5 of 43
    HamiltonJay to drewh

    Rubio died politically from a self inflicted gunshot wound to the head last Saturday, he’s walking dead now, just hasn’t fully realized it yet.

  • Why Ted Cruz is now the Republican front-runner

    02/10/2016 11:55:50 AM PST · 217 of 240
    HamiltonJay to JSDude1

    Cruz will outperform NH, but he’s not going to double his poll numbers in 10 days, and Trump isn’t Mark Rubio, he’s not going to shoot himself in the head and lose 17 or 18 points in 10 days.

    If anything Trump is likely to gain a few points in his polling numbers in SC from his victory in NH, he sure isn’t likely to lose 18 or 19 points in 10 days.

    Cruz will do better in SC than he did in NH, but doubling his numbers in 10 days, while at the same time halfing Trumps? Not with ads with kids playing with dolls.. that’s for sure.

  • Why Ted Cruz is now the Republican front-runner

    02/10/2016 11:52:50 AM PST · 216 of 240
    HamiltonJay to Cincinatus' Wife

    Not sure what filter this article is using, but Trump is polling at nearly double Cruz’s numbers... And those are polls prior to the NH vote. I am sure Cruz will do better in SC than NH, but unless something dramatically shifts his way in the next 10 days, he’s going to lose SC by a roughly 2 to 1 margin.

  • Scarborough: Trump & Sanders Represent Rejection Of... Bushes And Clintons...

    02/10/2016 11:46:13 AM PST · 22 of 25
    HamiltonJay to SunkenCiv


    How anyone, anyone thought the american people wanted an election that was going to be a Bush V a Clinton is beyond me... no one, not one damned person, outside of the beltway wanted this... The people are revolting and the elites don’t know what to do.... its really not that hard.. PUT AMERICA FIRST.

  • Trump Wins Every Demographic, Including Beating Cruz by 12% for "very conservative" voters

    02/10/2016 11:43:47 AM PST · 198 of 218
    HamiltonJay to Greetings_Puny_Humans

    Now that the “press” finally has some exit polls, they are going to slowly come to the realization that Trump is for real, and the narrative that he’s just the candidate of uneducated mad yokel white men is going to fade...

    He won everything in NH.. those opposed to Amnesty, those who supported Amnesty... College Educated, non College educated... he won nearly every single demographic they asked about... those who feel betrayed by republicans, those who don’t feel betrayed by republicans...

    Right now, Trump needs to take down Cruz, as long as they both are around the path for an establishment politician getting the nomination remains.

  • Like It Or Not, After New Hampshire, It's a Two Man Race Between Trump and Cruz

    02/10/2016 11:30:04 AM PST · 53 of 58
    HamiltonJay to Pollster1

    I have to disagree, Rubio is done... see my previous post on that one...

  • Like It Or Not, After New Hampshire, It's a Two Man Race Between Trump and Cruz

    02/10/2016 11:28:57 AM PST · 52 of 58
    HamiltonJay to reviled downesdad

    I think you overestimate Rubio’s chances... after Saturday’s debate, he’s basically become a punchline... Can one recover from a punchline? Sure, if you are a punchline early enough in the process and given enough time... 19 days isn’t a whole lot of time.

    Rubio literally shot himself in the head last Saturday, it truly was spectacular to see someone do that, no I’m not speaking hyperbole, it was literally a political Bud Dwyer moment. The exchange with Christie will be studied by political science students for decades hence.

    So far as I know no new SC polls have come out since then, but I just don’t see how Rubio sees more than 10% or so again. He had his moment and chance coming out of IA, and he just blew it.

  • Like It Or Not, After New Hampshire, It's a Two Man Race Between Trump and Cruz

    02/10/2016 9:04:44 AM PST · 41 of 58
    HamiltonJay to lodi90

    not sure what point you are trying to make here, yes you can win a state with 30 or 40% of a vote when your vote is factured, but realistically Trump and Cruz probably combine on their best days to no more than 55-60% of the electorate, meaning, that if its a 3 way race, the other guys going to get 40-45 % of the vote at least...

    If Trump and Cruz fragment that 55-60% of the vote 40/20 then guess what? They both lose more often than either of them win. As long as both are viable, and neither wins any state by 50% solo, the idea that the establishment is dead is a bit premature.

    This is politics people, Last Saturday Afternoon Rubio was looking like the sure fire Establishment candidate, and polling at 18%, by tuesday he got 10% and lost to Bush. There is a lot of field left to play, and while I am glad the way the momentum is going... it is foolish to write off the establishment completely after 2 contests.

  • Breaking: Chris Christie Dropping Out of Presidential Race

    02/10/2016 8:56:29 AM PST · 25 of 42
    HamiltonJay to Protect the Bill of Rights

    Its only a matter of time, Cruz and Trump have to come to a head soon.. as long as the establishment is fractured, they both can keep the status quo, but they both know, that with their combined totals likely being no more maximum than 55-60% of the vote in the best case, that if one of them doesn’t get knocked out and the establishment settles on a candidate, neither one of them are likely to win.

    And as much as it excites most of us here, eventually the establishment is going to settle around a candidate.. Out of Iowa, it looked like Rubio was the most likely candidate, after NH, and Rubio’s self inflicted gunshot wound to the head, it looks honestly like Bush is the most likely candidate for this. I doubt Kasich can leverage NH into a sustained effort, not taking away his hard work at retail politics that helped him win NH, just don’t think he’s going to be much of a factor going forward.

    And once an establishment candidate emerges, Trump nor Cruz will be able to win consistently as long as the other is still viable. The showdown is coming... and it’ll be a doozy.

  • The GOPe Strategy from Here (Vanity)

    02/10/2016 8:48:48 AM PST · 41 of 55
    HamiltonJay to TigerClaws

    They don’t need to encourage, Trump and Cruz, that is going to happen naturally... neither one of them have a prayer winning a 3 man race while the other is viable, so until an establishment candidate rises from the crowd, Trump and Cruz will be going after each other...

    Frankly if the first ads are any indication, Trump is going to beat Cruz down... other than Jeb!s boots were made for walking net video, I have to back to Carly’s Senate run commercial with the sheep to come up with an ad that I think is just completely off the mark than Cruz’s latest ad.

    If Trump V Cruz isn’t settled before the establishment gets a single candidate, the establishment guy very much can win by plurality, this possibility is not dead yet.

    The idea of the establishment backing Cruz? I don’t know, I think they would rather just go down in defeat than get in bed with him.... I honestly think they’d be more open to getting into bed with Trump than Cruz if they were able to.

    Time will tell how this plays out, I do think if the establishment doesn’t have a candidate to rally around exclusively soon, end of Super Tuesday at the latest... Trump is the next President of the United States.

  • Breaking: Chris Christie Dropping Out of Presidential Race

    02/10/2016 8:40:47 AM PST · 12 of 42
    HamiltonJay to conservativejoy

    And with that, I think personally any chance of Taking out Trump by the establishment dies.... I know they don’t think so, but I truly think Christie is the only other player with enough personality and X Factor to take on Trump head to head and have any chance of winning.

    Assuming the Cruz/Trump rivalry gets settled, eventually you have Trump V Establishment, and Christie was the only guy with in the establishment wing that has any prayer of going toe to toe with Trump.

  • Like It Or Not, After New Hampshire, It's a Two Man Race Between Trump and Cruz

    02/10/2016 8:35:55 AM PST · 28 of 58
    HamiltonJay to conservativejoy

    I think this death knell for the establishment is a bit early to write.....

    Trump and Cruz will most likely combine to roughly 50% of the vote +/- in the south, how that will be broken up will really be a matter of how well Trump does attacking Cruz and how well Cruz handles it. Given the ads released yesterday in SC, I’d put my money on Trump chipping away at Ted... The kids playing with dolls ad isn’t going to sway anyone IMHO, and while Trumps attack ad is rather traditional, I suspect his tact will be more effective.

    With that said, don’t count out the establishment, while I agree with the fact, with the establishment vote fractured its impossible for any of them to win, and NH did not move that fracturing any closer to ending... The difference between SC and Super Tuesday is a full week.. IF, and I admit this is a big IF, IF one of these establishment candidates comes out the clear winner, a week is more than enough time to begin to coalesce the establishment voters toward them. Trump and Cruz are going to be busy with each other, because frankly neither of them can win a 3 man race at this point, while the other is still viable. That doesn’t mean that either of them could not win a 2 man head to head race.... just that as long as its a 3 man race, their combined totals of 50-60% of the vote, will lose via plurality to the 3rd candidate.

    If the establishment hasn’t picked a main guy before super Tuesday, then it becomes difficult, but not impossible for any establishment player to win, less and less likely by the day, but that doesn’t mean its impossible. If it winds up dropping to a 2 man race, and Trump or Cruz truly do have a ceiling of 35-40% of the vote, the establishment candidate can slowly and methodically win the delegate count... I don’t think that’s going to happen, but this is politics folks.... Rubio just dropped 10 points in 2 days because he shot himself in the head point blank... no one would have predicted that last saturday afternoon.

    We shall see how this plays out... my money at this point still says Trump for the win... but time will tell.

  • Hillary Clinton Backer Urges Pulling Gloria Steinem and Madeleine Albright From Campaigning

    02/10/2016 4:47:28 AM PST · 14 of 63
    HamiltonJay to simpson96

    I has blown my mind From day one that the establishment uniparty thought anyone... Anyone wanted a Bush v Clinton election... They are so tone deaf it’s unbelievable.

    I am more convinced than ever that this election is Trumps to lose, and honestly as much as they try to argue Hillary will do better in a more diverse electorate I am more doubtful daily she will even be the nominee.

    Odds we get Bernie as the D are going up daily, desperate dems and possible R too will encourage someone like a Blloomberg in as an “independent” and Trump wins handily with a large plurality.

    We’ll see.

  • What will Rush Limbaugh say tomorrow after NH Primary?

    02/09/2016 9:31:07 PM PST · 41 of 100
    HamiltonJay to dowcaet

    If you took Hannity’s intellect and converted it to electricity, you couldn’t toast bread. He get paid a lot of money to basically be an RNC parrot, no one who is a deep independent thinker could listen to him for more than a few minutes without their head exploding.

    Rush had some intellect but I think he’s gone senile lately. Haven’t listened to him in years but the some stuff that he’s saying this election cycle certainly seems to come across as he’s in the tank for the establishment.

  • New Cruz ad out mocking The Trumpster

    02/09/2016 7:43:44 PM PST · 14 of 87
    HamiltonJay to Kenny

    Bad commercial, not as stupid as the boots are made for walking thing Jeb! did, but not going to move anyone one way or another... I don’t think.

  • Krauthammer: Christie's 'Suicide Attack' on Rubio Helped Trump Win NH

    02/09/2016 7:24:18 PM PST · 62 of 70
    HamiltonJay to Kit cat

    I wouldn’t say exploding, but the longer it takes for one of the establishment candidates to seperate themselves from the pack the harder life gets for them. They are perfectly fine with someone else... But Rubio’s falter means that there will likely not be an apparent leader in the establishment pack into afte Super Tuesday.

    I don’t think anyone thinks Kasich will repeat NH... SC will likely be Trump, Cruz and if I had to bet say probably Bush as his performance in NH breathes life into him. Obviously things are always fluid on politics but I don’t see Trump suffering a self inflicted wound, and I have always said Cruz will outperform in the traditionally red states...

    However sooner or later Trump and Cruz are going to have to go at it.. Trump can’t get over 50% of the primary votes as long as Cruz is viable, and he’s not going to peel many votes away from those that generally support the establishment candidates... So as that field thins Trump and Cruz are going to come to a lager head.

    As long as the establishment vote is fractured, no worries but winnowing of that field is going to force a head to head there...

  • Krauthammer: Christie's 'Suicide Attack' on Rubio Helped Trump Win NH

    02/09/2016 6:51:05 PM PST · 55 of 70
    HamiltonJay to Kit cat

    Christie made Rubio his b$)(h at the debate... Rubio was never ready for prime time, he had his moment coming out of Iowa, but he blew it... He won’t be dropping out yet, but he’s done IMHO

  • Krauthammer: Christie's 'Suicide Attack' on Rubio Helped Trump Win NH

    02/09/2016 6:41:11 PM PST · 51 of 70
    HamiltonJay to Theophilus

    Frankly I’ve considered Christie the dark horse for the establishment.. He is the only one, besides Trump, with a personality and the X Factor.

  • Krauthammer: Christie's 'Suicide Attack' on Rubio Helped Trump Win NH

    02/09/2016 6:18:49 PM PST · 44 of 70
    HamiltonJay to Williams


    Krauthammer is going senile as he gets older.

    Trump was winning NH by a country mile regardless of what happened with anyone else.