Does anyone seriously believe that Obama will get anywhere near the votes in 2012 that he got in 2008?
Does anyone seriously believe that Sarah Palin will get less votes than the McCain/Palin ticket got in 2008?
If she can win the nomination then all she has to do is carry the 2008 total and grab a minimal percentage of the independent voters to work the EC and get to 270. It's not beyond her capabilities to do that by any stretch.
She needs to focus on winning the same states as 2008 and flipping some states like FL, IN, CO, IA, NV, NM, OH and VA. This is not an insurmountable goal.