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Posts by Massimo75

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  • Rasmussen Daily: MON 11/05: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%: ONE DAY TO GO!!

    11/05/2012 7:09:37 AM PST · 30 of 76
    Massimo75 to SoftwareEngineer
    Here's the breakdown. The sample stayed the same but Romney now just have 86% of republican while Obama gets 89 of the democrats. Watching the enthusiasm at the Romney rallies it looks a bit weird. The support among indipendents keeps on jumping up and down, today we're at one of an all time high: +15! Keep it cool. Soon we will know the truth.
  • Polls: This Mitt fellow is becoming more likeable by the day

    11/04/2012 3:56:20 PM PST · 9 of 11
    Massimo75 to Tea Party Terrorist

    Just a quick note:
    I think we’ve all seen the last Pew Research Poll.
    Numbers aren’t good.
    But take a look at the sample (pag.8)
    http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-4-12%20Election%20Weekend%20Release.pdf

    Republican 843 (32.3 %)
    Democrats 1007 (38.6%)
    Indipendents 761 (29.1%)

    The sample is Dem+6. This maybe can make someone lose a little less sleep tonight.

  • Daily Rasmussen: SUN: 11/04: R:49 O:49 Obama -8: 2 Days to go!!!

    11/04/2012 7:30:24 AM PST · 41 of 129
    Massimo75 to SoftwareEngineer
    The difference between now and last week is that Obama improved a lot his numbers among democrats in Rasmussen internals. Today internals: Romney GOP 88% DEM 10% IND 52%; Obama GOP 10% DEM 89% IND 43% Now compare this with October 23 internals (when Romney was +4) Romney lost 5 points among democrats, Obama gained 7. Rasmussen has apparently a sample with Dem at 38-39%. This 12 points swing among democrats means a difference of 0.12*38 = 4.56% or 0.12*39 = 4.68% And that's why Romney is not any longer up by 4 but tie.
  • 10 Things Everyone Gets Wrong About Ohio and Pennsylvania in the 2012 Election

    11/03/2012 6:06:33 PM PDT · 21 of 30
    Massimo75 to Dr. Sivana

    I’ve never been in CT. I’ will one day. I still doubt it’s really in play but I welcome your opinion and if I could I’d certainly choose you to be right and me to be wrong :)

  • 10 Things Everyone Gets Wrong About Ohio and Pennsylvania in the 2012 Election

    11/03/2012 4:36:47 PM PDT · 16 of 30
    Massimo75 to Dr. Sivana

    Sorry, I meant the ads bought in Minnesota could be a way to attack WEST Wisconsin. I mistakenly wrote east.

  • 10 Things Everyone Gets Wrong About Ohio and Pennsylvania in the 2012 Election

    11/03/2012 4:36:21 PM PDT · 15 of 30
    Massimo75 to Dr. Sivana

    Sure Romney will outperform a guy like Gingrich by at least 20 points in the north east. But I suspect a guy like Gingrich would lose in Connecticut and New Jersey by a lot more than 20 points, so...

    Anyway, no one would be happier than me if Romney would carry those states. I have a political GOP oriented blog here in Italy and I’ll be doing liveblogging the whole night (7 hours tome difference with the US east coast). If Romney would carry those states we could call the election soon enough to allow me for at least a couple of hours of sleep :)

  • 10 Things Everyone Gets Wrong About Ohio and Pennsylvania in the 2012 Election

    11/03/2012 3:56:37 PM PDT · 13 of 30
    Massimo75 to 2ndDivisionVet

    Pennsylvania is still possible and having enough money they did the right thing buying all the ads, and making two stops just in case.
    My view about Pennsylvania over the years has always been the following: in oder to win Pennsylvania a GOP nominee must have such a national advantage (more than three points) that he dosen’t need Pennsylvania to win the electoral college. But if they sense there is a real chance it’s right to give it a try. I saw the Ryan rally earlier today and people were really on fire.

    Oregon, honestly I don’t see it coming.

    Concerning Minnesota I was wondering if buyng ads there could be a way to “attack” east Wisconsin. Cause Wisconsin is really a possible catch this year and a critical one!

  • 10 Things Everyone Gets Wrong About Ohio and Pennsylvania in the 2012 Election

    11/03/2012 3:26:48 PM PDT · 9 of 30
    Massimo75 to 2ndDivisionVet

    I don’t know.
    When it talks about Washington, New Jersey and Connecticut it falls instantly into the wishful thinking category to me, even without reading the rest.

    This is a close election. The best point to predict it will be less close than it looks to be is saying that many pollster are sampling the likely voters like we still were in the fall of 2008 and that can make the difference in Romney advantage.

    Romney is a position to win, he’s up in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. He just need Ohio or Wisconisn+Iowa or Nevada+Iowa to unseat Obama, so there are several possible paths, but none of them has to be taken for granted and there is no landslide coming. Keep that in mind otherwise any not-so-great poll will be disheartening.
    I don’t think that talking about winning New Jersey can put anyone in the right track.

    This is how I see things from 7000 Km away.

  • Rasmussen Daily: SAT: 11/03: R:48 O:48 Obama -8% : THREE Days Left!

    11/03/2012 10:09:29 AM PDT · 90 of 108
    Massimo75 to SoftwareEngineer

    Just doing the math.

    In this poll Romney has:
    GOP 88%
    Dem 9%
    Ind 49%

    Obama has;
    GOP 9%
    Dem 89%
    Ind 44%

    The difference with past week polls is the that Romney was at 92-93% among GOP and had a bigger lead among Indies (up to 9-10 points).
    That’s a major change.

    I’ll say more, these internals are so bad that they don’t event fit with the D39 R36 D25 sample

    Romeny = 0.88*36 + 0.09*39 + 0.49*25 = 47.44
    Obama = 0.09*36 + 0.89*39 + 0.44*25 = 48.95

    In order to come up with a 48 to 48 with such bad internals he should have made the sample more republican than that.

    I frankly can’t understand what Rasmussen is doing these days, but there are still 3 days to “adjust”.

  • Election 2012: Ohio President: Obama 49%, Romney 49%

    11/02/2012 12:45:18 PM PDT · 127 of 187
    Massimo75 to xuberalles

    If I may, I look the internals of all the Rasmussen polls and sometimes those figures jump up and down.
    Just the other day in the presidential tracking the support of black people for Obama was “only” around 85%, than the next day went back around 95%. So don’t draw too many conclusions based on a single day poll internals.

    The only conclusion is that the match is close, which we already knew.

  • Rasmussen Daily: FRI 11/02: R:48 O:48 Obama -11%: 4 Days to go!!

    11/02/2012 12:16:21 PM PDT · 113 of 134
    Massimo75 to SoftwareEngineer

    As a Platinum Member I can tell You Rasmussen is about to issue a new Ohio Poll:

    Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49%

    It’s Romney 49 and Obama 48 as initial preference.
    It becomes 49 Tie where leaners are included.

    Sample:
    Rep 35
    Dem 35
    Other 29

    The strange thing is that according to this new poll Obama would be 50-41 among indipendents in Ohio, unlike what seemed to be pretty much the trend up to today.

  • Obama: What "Salesman" Romney Is Offering "Sure Ain't Change" (Wisconsin Rally)

    11/01/2012 5:32:03 PM PDT · 17 of 18
    Massimo75 to Sir Napsalot

    Whatever he said I like to see him going in Wisconsin while Paul Ryan is in Nevada.
    I don’t believe that victory in Nevada or Pennsylvania (where Romney will land next sunday) is really possible, but trying to expand the map is a good sign.
    And if Ohio sticks with Obama Wisconsin will be the real White House decider in 2012.

  • Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (Oct 29)

    10/29/2012 9:28:15 AM PDT · 1 of 11
    Massimo75
  • Early Vote in Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin

    10/27/2012 11:08:50 AM PDT · 24 of 27
    Massimo75 to LS

    I just read an article of his on Politico.com
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html

    “I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.”

    Is there any place in the internet where you can find this kind of data, for all the states involved, and make a sensible comparision between 2012 and 2008?
    Or do we have to rely on inaccurate and sometimes dishonest stories from the media?

  • Early Vote in Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin

    10/27/2012 3:17:36 AM PDT · 1 of 27
    Massimo75
  • Washington Post-ABC News Poll: R:49: O:48

    10/26/2012 10:46:33 AM PDT · 11 of 14
    Massimo75 to SoftwareEngineer

    As I said yesterday, this poll isn’t serious.
    Their sample stayed the same from yesterday but in the last four weeks jumped up, down, D+3, D+9, D+5, now D+4.

    Anything
    But
    Credible

  • SILVIO BERLUSCONI SENTENCED TO 4 YEARS IN JAIL

    10/26/2012 9:26:06 AM PDT · 12 of 15
    Massimo75 to SeekAndFind

    This is another example of how judges make politics here in Italy.
    Berlusconi was just a rich and successful businesman till he decided to get into politics in 1994.
    Since then, regardless of the fact that he was the premier or the leader of the opposition, he had at least a new court case every year. It was always sentenced not guilty in the end but few times he was candemned first and then vindicated in the appeal (Like Amanda Knox, ring any bell?).
    But what’s more important italian liberal media like “La Repubblica” had the chance to keeps his trials in the headlines the whole time. That’s the way it works.

    Just yesterday Berlusconi annunced he won’t run in the 2013 election. Probably the judges didn’t bother to change the sentence, the appeal court will take care of it (sarcasm).

  • Romney Hits the 50 Percent Mark, With a Clear Edge on the Economy

    10/25/2012 3:41:04 PM PDT · 56 of 81
    Massimo75 to SoftwareEngineer

    That’s good to see but I don’t trust this poll anyway.
    Look how their LV sample moved in every direction in just few weeks. Now with a more or less reasonable Dem+4 Romney in where he’s supposed to be, but next week they can flip back a totally unreasonable sample.

    Democrat Republican Independent Other
    10/24/12 LV 34 30 31 3
    10/23/12 LV 34 30 32 3
    10/22/12 LV 34 29 32 3
    10/21/12 LV 34 29 33 3
    10/13/12 LV 35 26 33 3
    9/29/12 LV 33 30 33 3

    We’re talking about Washington Post and ABC (Anything But Credible).
    So...good to see but I don’t trust them anyway.

  • Who Won the Debates? 49% Say Romney, 41% Obama (Rasmussen FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)

    10/25/2012 12:41:29 PM PDT · 1 of 5
    Massimo75
  • Gallup Tracking Poll: R50/O47

    10/24/2012 10:37:22 AM PDT · 30 of 97
    Massimo75 to wiseprince

    Actually we have Romney leading in the last Rasmussen in New Hampshire and Colorado, Tie in Iowa and in Ohio but he was one and two points down respectively in the previous polls.
    I don’t necessarily buy all those results, but if there’s a new trend is not showing in polls so far.

  • Rassmussen New Hampshire - Romney 50 Obama 48

    10/24/2012 10:37:21 AM PDT · 22 of 28
    Massimo75 to wolfman23601

    In your list I’d change the side of Colorado and Ohio.

    Colorado was voting Republican more than the nation years ago, but with the demographic change they had in the last decade or so the trend is going the other way. In 2008 it gives an almost 9 point lead to Obama while nationally he had a 7.2 points lead.
    Ohio on the other hand is much closer to the national average but typically gives slightly a better than the nation result to the GOP guy,and a little worst than the nation result to the dem, with the exception of 2004 when Kerry had practically the same in Ohio that he had nationally.

  • Rassmussen New Hampshire - Romney 50 Obama 48

    10/24/2012 9:52:06 AM PDT · 20 of 28
    Massimo75 to Perdogg

    From the crosstabs of this survey

    Republican 32%
    Democrat 30%
    Other 38%

  • Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Ras)

    10/24/2012 7:45:44 AM PDT · 64 of 81
    Massimo75 to Palmetto Patriot

    Additional informations for this survey:

    Whom do you trust more to handle the economy….Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

    51% Mitt Romney
    44% Barack Obama
    5% Not Sure

    Whom do you trust more to handle national security issues…Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

    46% Mitt Romney
    50% Barack Obama
    4% Not Sure

    Whom do you trust more to handle energy policy….Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

    51% Mitt Romney
    44% Barack Obama
    5% Not sure

    If Mitt Romney is elected president and Republicans win control of Congress, is the economy likely to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
    46% Better
    36% Worse
    14% Stay about the same
    4% Not sure

    If President Obama is reelected and Democrats regain control of Congress, is the economy likely to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
    37% Better
    40% Worse
    20% Stay about the same
    3% Not sure

    Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
    1% Excellent
    17% Good
    38% Fair
    43% Poor
    1% Not sure

    Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?
    41% Better
    35% Worse
    20% Staying the same
    4% Not sure

    Sometimes, unexpected things come up that prevent people from voting on Election Day. Are you certain that you will vote in this year’s elections, or is it possible that something could come up that would prevent you from voting?

    97% Certain
    3% Something could prevent you from voting

    How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    36% Strongly approve
    15% Somewhat approve
    7% Somewhat disapprove
    41% Strongly disapprove
    0% Not sure

  • Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Ras)

    10/24/2012 7:30:58 AM PDT · 62 of 81
    Massimo75 to Palmetto Patriot

    Additional information from this survey:

    Whom do you trust more to handle the economy….Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

    51% Mitt Romney
    44% Barack Obama
    5% Not Sure

    Whom do you trust more to handle national security issues…Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

    46% Mitt Romney
    50% Barack Obama
    4% Not Sure

    Whom do you trust more to handle energy policy….Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

    51% Mitt Romney
    44% Barack Obama
    5% Not sure

    If Mitt Romney is elected president and Republicans win control of Congress, is the economy likely to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
    46% Better
    36% Worse
    14% Stay about the same
    4% Not sure

    If President Obama is reelected and Democrats regain control of Congress, is the economy likely to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
    37% Better
    40% Worse
    20% Stay about the same
    3% Not sure

    Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?
    1% Excellent
    17% Good
    38% Fair
    43% Poor
    1% Not sure

    Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?
    41% Better
    35% Worse
    20% Staying the same
    4% Not sure

    Sometimes, unexpected things come up that prevent people from voting on Election Day. Are you certain that you will vote in this year’s elections, or is it possible that something could come up that would prevent you from voting?

    97% Certain
    3% Something could prevent you from voting

    How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    36% Strongly approve
    15% Somewhat approve
    7% Somewhat disapprove
    41% Strongly disapprove
    0% Not sure

  • Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Ras)

    10/24/2012 7:30:49 AM PDT · 61 of 81
    Massimo75 to Palmetto Patriot
    Full demographic breakdown Party: Republican 39% Democrat 38% Other 23%
  • Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Ras)

    10/24/2012 7:30:28 AM PDT · 60 of 81
    Massimo75 to Palmetto Patriot

    Apparently the numbers coming from Ohio don’t make any sense.
    Ohio typically gave to the GOP candidate a slightly better than the national average result.
    A GOP candidate claerly leading nationally shouldn’t have any problem carrying Ohio.

    Either these numbers aren’t accurate or the car-factor is bigger than expected.

  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: R50/O46

    10/23/2012 9:36:53 AM PDT · 112 of 131
    Massimo75 to Straight Vermonter
    I noticed that those number seems to change back and forth in a more volatile way than the overall support for the candidate. This one for example is a picture I saved 3 days ago (it's the national presidential tracking on Oct. 20) and You can see that among black the support is a more familiar 95 to 5. I used the data of 2 different days to try to extract the party ID sample, cause once you know what percentage of indipendents, GOP and Dems makes the overall approval of each candidate you just need three equations to identify the three unknowns. I never found twice the same exact result (even because we don't have decimal numbers) but should not be far from Dem39 Gop36 Ind25, as someone said here few days ago. Anyway. Some polls are blue, some other are red, we can't be sure which ones are correct. But after the debate I think I know which ones they believe, cause yesterday Obama was cleary going for it like there was no tomorrow while Romney was playing safe all the time.
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: R50/O46

    10/23/2012 7:43:57 AM PDT · 81 of 131
    Massimo75 to tatown
    To Expand your (and my) enjoyment :)
  • Battleground Tracking Poll: Mitt Romney Takes Lead (49-47)

    10/22/2012 3:55:23 AM PDT · 1 of 6
    Massimo75
  • Mitt Romney likely win in November indicated by latest polls

    10/21/2012 4:50:42 PM PDT · 19 of 33
    Massimo75 to 2ndDivisionVet

    Based on the electoral map I think Romney needs a minimum of 1.5 points advantage nationally to be reasonably sure to win the 270 electoral votes.
    Rasmussen polls (the national presidential tracking and the swing states tracking) seem to paint the picture he needs. That makes me confident.

    Gallup tracking is a bit weired actually, I like its numbers (52-45) but I can’t tell how significant they really are.

    Concering the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll...well...just checked they web site. Do I misread or their tracking had a +21 Romney just 3 days ago? And then turned into a Romney +3 the day after, then Romney +8 and today Romney +11.
    Doesn’t look particulary reliable to me.
    I think I’ll stick with Rasmussen :)

  • Rasmussen Daily Swing State: R: 50% O:46%

    10/21/2012 9:44:13 AM PDT · 30 of 108
    Massimo75 to SoftwareEngineer

    This swing states tracking is almost like a mini-national tracking. The results of the two should match with less than a point difference once you take away the inevitable statistical error.

    It’s almost like having two Rasmussen national tracking polls each day.
    Today we have a 49-47 in the national presidentual tracking and a 50-46 in the swing states tracking.
    If the truth is somewhere in between things really look good :)

  • Polls Sample

    10/21/2012 3:21:34 AM PDT · 19 of 20
    Massimo75 to nodumbblonde

    Sorry. My bad for haven’t fixed the settings.
    Now it’s public :)

  • IBD/TIPP Poll - Is it Credible?

    10/20/2012 2:10:08 PM PDT · 35 of 50
    Massimo75 to NY4Romney

    A couple of hours ago I sent them an e mail asking how on earth they think their result could be even close to reality having a sample with Dems+7.
    Dems+7 is the same advantage they had in 2008 (CNN Exit Poll), who can think this election is 2008 all over again?
    No way.
    2012 looks way closer to 2004 than 2008 and in 2004 both parties has 37% in the CNN Exit Poll.

  • Polls Sample

    10/20/2012 2:01:35 PM PDT · 16 of 20
    Massimo75 to nodumbblonde

    I found a way to post the document on google docs.
    So here it is
    https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2JIAz5DeQPtUUdDRlpMMG90OFU/edit

    Quick explaination:
    Sheet from 1 to 5 are just data acquisition. For each of the 11 states the excel sheet acquires a coefficient for every election for both parties.
    For example in 2008 McCain in Florida had 48.22% while his national result was 45.70. So his result in Florida was 1.06 times “bigger” than his national figure, so 1.06 it’s the Gop coefficient in Florida 2008-—> KGop2008-Florida = 1.06.
    You procede like this for each state for every election till you have a best coefficient and a worst coefficient for each state based on all the elections taken into account.
    I created the model for the 2008 election and then I had 1996-2000 and 2004 elections in it. This year I dropped 1996 and put in 2008, cause behaviors of the states compared with the national average change overtime (slowly for some states, more quickly for others whit bigger demography changes) and I thought that 1996 data was not that significance anymore.

    The goal is to have a model which tranforms the national result of each candidate in likely ranges (or averages) in each of the 11 swing states. So it doesn’t predict the national result, but once You input that in the model, transform it in results in the 11 states.
    Of course this is not an exact method cause distributions are never exactly the same twice, but most of the time they change slowly enough to have a resemblance with their past :)

    Results are in sheets 6 and 7.
    Sheet 6 gives you ranges and average for each state based on 2000-2004-2008 distribution of vote.
    Sheet 7 gives the result only based on the 2008 distribution.

    The only input data, which can be changed every time one wants to, are the national result of each candidate in 2012 which are at the top of sheet 6 and 7.
    In this case I have put Romney 50% and Obama 46.50 cause I was trying to determine what situation would have led the model close to a the swing states Resmussen scenario.

    The 50-46 in the 11 swing states paints clearly a much more favorable picture for Romney than the 1 point lead in the presidential national tracking poll. Truth could be somewhere in between.

  • Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (Rasmussen 10/20)

    10/20/2012 1:40:41 PM PDT · 100 of 109
    Massimo75 to justlurking

    Thanks for the suggestion!
    So here it is
    https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2JIAz5DeQPtUUdDRlpMMG90OFU/edit

    Quick explaination:
    Sheet from 1 to 5 are just data acquisition. For each of the 11 states the excel sheet acquires a coefficient for every election for both parties.
    For example in 2008 McCain in Florida had 48.22% while his national result was 45.70. So his result in Florida was 1.06 times “bigger” than his national figure, so 1.06 it’s the Gop coefficient in Florida 2008-—> KGop2008-Florida = 1.06.
    You procede like this for each state for every election till you have a best coefficient and a worst coefficient for each state based on all the elections taken into account.
    I created the model for the 2008 election and then I had 1996-2000 and 2004 elections in it. This year I dropped 1996 and put in 2008, cause behaviors of the states compared with the national average change overtime (slowly for some states, more quickly for others whit bigger demography changes) and I thought that 1996 data was not that significance anymore.

    The goal is to have a model which tranforms the national result of each candidate in likely ranges (or averages) in each of the 11 swing states. So it doesn’t predict the national result, but once You input that in the model, transform it in results in the 11 states.
    Of course this is not an exact method cause distributions are never exactly the same twice, but most of the time they change slowly enough to have a resemblance with their past :)

    Results are in sheets 6 and 7.
    Sheet 6 gives you ranges and average for each state based on 2000-2004-2008 distribution of vote.
    Sheet 7 gives the result only based on the 2008 distribution.

    The only input data, which can be changed every time one wants to, are the national result of each candidate in 2012 which are at the top of sheet 6 and 7.
    In this case I have put Romney 50% and Obama 46.50 cause I was trying to determine what situation would have led the model close to a the swing states Resmussen scenario.

    The 50-46 in the 11 swing states paints clearly a much more favorable picture for Romney than the 1 point lead in the presidential national tracking poll. Truth could be somewhere in between.

  • Polls Sample

    10/20/2012 12:34:20 PM PDT · 15 of 20
    Massimo75 to Viennacon

    I think winning Pennsylvania could be possible only with a 3-4 points advantage nationally. Which doesn’t fit with most of the national polls (except Gallup) but could be the case if the 50-46 in the Rasmussen swing states tracking poll would be accurate. In that case anyway I think the election would be pretty straightforward.
    I mean if Romney wins a blue state like PA he’s going to have a landslide.

    Here in Italy I think politically we’re beyond help. Our center-right caolition vanished and we don’t even know who we could vote for in each camp in next year election.
    But I can tell You one thing: the path you’re on, the government spending, the government running economy more and more, the debt over 100% of the GDP is very same path that brought us where we’re now. I can tell you it doesn’t work, jobs and economy dependent on government money are affordable only in the short-medium term.

    I remember Margaret Thatchet once said: The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.

  • Polls Sample

    10/20/2012 11:48:56 AM PDT · 14 of 20
    Massimo75 to nodumbblonde

    Well, three of my biggest passions are politics, America and numbers.
    I can combine the three of them here! :)

    Anyway I made a mistake, my model had Missouri in (it was designed in 2008 when Missouri actually was a swing state) instead of Michigan. It changes quite a lot cause the first is a red state while the second is blue state.

    Now I fixed it to have the exact same swing states Rasmussen included in his swing states tracking and so a 4 points lead in these 11 states combined would mean a 3.5 points lead nationally with Iowa and New Hampshire which would too go under the belt.

    I mean this 4 points lead in the swing states tracking paints quite a more favorable picture than the single point lead in the national tracking.
    Again, I can’t see how this can go together with such a tight race in Ohio.

  • Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (Rasmussen 10/20)

    10/20/2012 10:56:58 AM PDT · 79 of 109
    Massimo75 to LS

    Can I ask You where did You see that Rasmussen uses a D+3 sample?
    I have the Ras membership since yestarday, and partially bought it to access this very information, but I can see these sample details only in single states polls, not in the national tracking.
    Where should I look for it?

  • Polls Sample

    10/20/2012 10:56:47 AM PDT · 11 of 20
    Massimo75 to Viennacon

    Thanks! I am okay, I am an engineer I run my business (and me and my family did build it!) and in spite of all the attemps from our non elected government to kill the private sector jobs, we’re still doing fine so far.

    Anyway, I posted the following in another thread but it’s maybe too busy for people to notice it :)

    I elaborated a simple model which redistributes - bed word, I know, but forgive me! :) - the national figures of each candidate to the single states under the assumption that states keep on having the same behavior in terms of voting for the Gop or the Dem candidate above or below the national average.
    My model has 2 options:
    1 - keeping the same vote distribution of 2008 election
    2 - keeping the average vote distribution of 2000-2004-2008 elections.

    I would like to post a screencap of the excel sheet but I am new here and I can’t see how to post images.

    The model worked quite well in 2008 election in mostly of the states, some are changing their behavior compared with national average more quickly because of demographic changes (like Colorado or Nevada) and that makes them harder to predict with this particular method.

    Anyway, for what it’s worth, according to this model of mine Romeny +4 (50-46, as Rasmussen says today) in the 11 swing states means a 2.5-3 points lead in the national vote and Romney winner in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado (with Iowa and New Hampshire too cose to call).

    That would be enough to have 275 Electoral Votes and the White House.

    State polls I see seems quite consistent with common sense (and my model as well). The one I don’t get is Ohio, how on earth a GOP candidate can be up in the national vote (Rasmussen is +1 or +2, sometimes Tie, depending on the day) and still be down by 1 in Ohio? Margin of error or Car bailout effect?

  • Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (Rasmussen 10/20)

    10/20/2012 10:28:35 AM PDT · 71 of 109
    Massimo75

    (I’m italian, I have a political blog, mostly about US these days, and GOP oriented. Sorry if I make mistakes sometimes, I am not a mothertongue).

    Hi everyone.
    I elaborated a simple model which redistributes - bed word, I know, but forgive me! :) - the national figures of each candidate to the single states under the assumption that states keep on having the same behavior in terms of voting for the Gop or the Dem candidate above or below the national average.
    My model has 2 options:
    1 - keeping the same vote distribution of 2008 election
    2 - keeping the average vote distribution of 2000-2004-2008 elections.

    I would like to post a screencap of the excel sheet but I am new here and I can’t see how to post images.

    The model worked quite well in 2008 election in mostly of the states, some are changing their behavior compared with national average more quickly because of demographic changes (like Colorado or Nevada) and that makes them harder to predict with this particular method.

    Anyway, for what it’s worth, according to this model of mine Romeny +4 in the 11 swing states means a 2.5-3 points lead in the national vote and Romney winner in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado (with Iowa and New Hampshire too cose to call).

    That would be enough to have 275 Electoral Votes and the White House.

    State polls I see seems quite consistent with common sense (and my model as well). The one I don’t get is Ohio, how on earth a GOP candidate can be up in the national vote (Rasmussen is +1 or +2, sometimes Tie, depending on the day) and still be down by 1 in Ohio? Margin of error or Car bailout effect?

  • Polls Sample

    10/20/2012 9:41:27 AM PDT · 7 of 20
    Massimo75 to paolop

    Hi!I am not the only italian here after all! :D

    Ciao! Non sono l’unico italiano! :D

    Are You living in the US or posting from Italy like me?

  • Polls Sample

    10/20/2012 9:21:28 AM PDT · 5 of 20
    Massimo75 to Oldpuppymax

    Yeah, I know. I am a Rasmussen member since yesterday and I would gladly share the information with you if I just could find it!

    I see for example that Ohio sample has Gop 37, Dems 37, Ind 26, while Florida has Gop 38, Dems 37, Ind 25. But can’t find the overall sample for the presidential tracking. If there’s any other Rasmussen member here maybe can help me.

    And...any Gallup member to get into their sample as well?

  • Polls Sample

    10/20/2012 8:54:20 AM PDT · 1 of 20
    Massimo75