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Posts by MitchellC

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  • ATTENTION: Freepers who use Twitter, what is your state's hashtag for state politics?

    11/11/2012 10:59:19 AM PST · 2 of 5
    MitchellC to LS; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; Impy; 2ndDivisionVet; randita; kristinn; ...

    Info appreciated if anyone has it, thanks.

  • ATTENTION: Freepers who use Twitter, what is your state's hashtag for state politics?

    11/11/2012 10:54:48 AM PST · 1 of 5
    MitchellC
  • Congressman considering Senate race (against Mary Landrieu, D, Louisiana)

    11/10/2012 9:19:50 PM PST · 31 of 31
    MitchellC to fieldmarshaldj

    Hate to say it, but he just looks too dorky to run for President. I think he’s the best bet to knock off Landrieu anyway.

    Whatever it is he does, I would be willing to bet on one thing for certain: the Dems will get Kal Penn to do an impersonation of him, probably an OFA web ad like the one they did with the dykey slut. And, it’ll be vicious as hell, even allude (if not state outright) that Jindal is a sell-out.

  • Congressman considering Senate race (against Mary Landrieu, D, Louisiana)

    11/10/2012 2:30:32 PM PST · 28 of 31
    MitchellC to fieldmarshaldj
    I expect, however, there will be enormous pressure on all Senate Dem incumbents to stay put in 2014

    That would go against the Dem strategy of the past two elections, wouldn't it? The Dems know it's often easier to win with a blank slate that can promise anything than it is to defend an incumbent who has ruined his reputation by actually voting like a Democrat.
  • Congressman considering Senate race (against Mary Landrieu, D, Louisiana)

    11/10/2012 2:21:05 PM PST · 27 of 31
    MitchellC to fieldmarshaldj

    I’ve assumed that Jindal would be running for this. I recall some scuttlebutt on Twitter that the Lt. Gov’s race was so important, precisely because Jindal wasn’t expected to complete the term, hint hint. And this was from folks working in the Lt. Gov. campaign.

  • Congressman considering Senate race (against Mary Landrieu, D, Louisiana)

    11/10/2012 2:15:37 PM PST · 26 of 31
    MitchellC to ken5050
    the GOP WILL take the Senate in 2014.

    Seriously? Are we going to go into 2014 like we did 2012, assuring ourselves that victory is certain like it's the law of nature?

    Come on. Unless we start busting our asses now, the majority will be perfectly content to remain stuck on stupid.
  • Campaign Sources: The Romney Campaign was a Consultant Con Job

    11/10/2012 6:43:56 AM PST · 102 of 149
    MitchellC to LtKerst
    Why don’t these Morons use a Guy like Dick Morris?

    That's funny - you call people morons and then you wonder aloud why no one uses the 'services' of that clown Dick Morris, who has spent the last decade sensationalizing everything in order to make money off of conservatives. He has the worst track record imaginable.

    If Barone had predicted 400 electoral votes for Romney, Morris would have predicted 450. In 2010, Morris projected something like 90 House pick-ups, just to excite naive conservatives enough to go buy his books and subscriptions or whatever it is he's doing now.

    In short: please stop believing what he says about himself, and please stop encouraging him.
  • Exclusive - Inside Orca: How the Romney Campaign Suppressed Its Own Vote

    11/09/2012 10:33:10 AM PST · 92 of 130
    MitchellC to MrShoop

    Here are a couple of posts I made about my ORCA experience, yesterday on the NC forum:

    Project ORCA... Was anyone else here involved in that?

    For anyone who didn’t hear about it, it involved being a poll watcher for the Romney campaign, but the idea was to collect the names of those who had voted throughout the day, and to relay that info up to the HQ in Boston, by way of smart phone app. From there they’d apparently bug those Rs who hadn’t yet voted.

    Really interesting concept, I heard about it a month or so ago, realized I had some personal days I could take at work, and put them all in for this week. Signed up for the program (they called it a “task force”), and was accepted. Was really excited about helping out. They ended up assigning me to the precinct next to my own in Cornelius.

    Sadly it was a bust. That morning I couldn’t even log on to the “app” they provided (actually it was just a website, not sure why they were calling it an app). Collecting the data on voters was next to impossible, as there was one of me, and voters checked in as many as five at a time at two long tables as I sat at an assigned chair off to the side, and as I wasn’t allowed to view the books of registered voters, I had to sign off only as many names as I could actually hear. 3% would be a generous estimate as to how many that turned out to be - most people speak too softly. On top of that I had to quickly flip through the more than sixty pages of names I had printed out the night before.

    I was told by both the campaign and the poll manager that at 10, 2 and 4 I could view lists of who had voted. At the time I assumed that meant the books, but later found out (at 10, of course, when I was rebuffed) that I couldn’t go near the books, and instead had to wait for a print-out of names, after the certifications had been scanned and processed. At 10, and again by 2, they hadn’t even begun to scan them, as they were apparently backed up. So, I had nothing to work with.

    By 4, they said I could sort through the stacks of certifications. I did as many as I could before being told that they needed to begin scanning, so I had to hand ‘em back. I took the names that I did have, and after spending over an hour bouncing around on the phone with several different kids in Boston, they finally reset my log-in info. Eventually it accepted my log-in and as I began to input the names... the website crashed on me, never to return.

    My understanding is that most of the volunteers experienced similar problems. Interesting idea, could really be a powerful tool one day, but this year it was a bomb. Who knows... I’ve read that Romney lost OH, FL, VA and CO by a combined ~300,000 votes, and had this been working properly, maybe it could have made the difference.

    I think something like ORCA could be a powerful tool. Really, each state GOP should undertake something like this, but combine it with traditional outreach and GOTV. Don’t overly centralize it either, delegate it out by regions, to counties, to neighborhoods. Probably better to have a neighbor knocking on doors than it is to get a robo-call from across the country. And instead of waiting for a prez or congressional election to try it out, do a dry run in the odd-year elections.

  • CARTOON: Obamatown

    11/08/2012 4:14:33 PM PST · 12 of 14
    MitchellC to daletoons

    I know how you feel.

    In case I haven’t said so before, I think your art is incredible.

  • Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily (315-223, wow!)

    11/05/2012 11:23:59 AM PST · 102 of 104
    MitchellC to AuH2ORepublican

    Boy, do I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think Mack will make it, big win for Romney or not.

    On the other hand, I think McMahon has a decent shot, as does Brown of holding on. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Akin somehow pulled it out, assuming the GOP is winning as many races as you think. He isn’t doing much worse than Mack in the polls, and unlike Nelson in FL, McCaskill seems to still be hated in MO.

  • Early voting numbers exceed two million in NC

    11/03/2012 3:40:47 PM PDT · 32 of 32
    MitchellC to JediJones

    Have a link for that Facebook post?

  • Early voting numbers exceed two million in NC

    11/02/2012 8:56:42 PM PDT · 17 of 32
    MitchellC to Ravi
    North Carolina's early voting info is provided by the state Board of Elections website, but it's sorted by the Civitas Institute at http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/.
  • Early voting numbers exceed two million in NC

    11/02/2012 7:59:16 PM PDT · 13 of 32
    MitchellC to MacMattico; Perdogg; LS; Jet Jaguar

    North Carolina is already in the bag for Romney.

    At this time in 2008:

    Votes Cast: 2,129,739
    Democrats 1,118,192 52.5%
    Republicans 630,585 29.61%
    Unaffiliateds 379,666 17.83%

    As of today:

    Votes Cast: 2,257,894
    Democrats 1,083,225 47.98% [down 34,967]
    Republicans 718,553 31.82% [up 87,968]
    Unaffiliateds 451,488 20% [up 71,822]

    Final results in NC 2008:
    Obama/Biden 2,142,651 49.70%
    McCain/Palin 2,128,474 49.38%

    Obama won NC by a mere 14,177 votes.

    McCain won the election day vote overwhelmingly, and I can’t come up with any reason why Romney won’t do the same (and to a greater degree). Thus, with the Dem turnout down and everybody else up, Obama has already lost here.

    THE ONLY REASON that Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama are coming back to NC to campaign is in order to trick their base into getting excited - for the sake of their down ballot races... but not so much here in NC, but nationally. It’s the sort of thing that plays well to the dummies who read the Huffington Post.

  • Candidates’ schedules may reveal more than poll

    11/02/2012 12:16:55 AM PDT · 36 of 38
    MitchellC to LS

    How’s that Senate race looking?

  • Sen. Menendez had loud sex with different girl every night, DC neighbor tells left-wing website

    11/01/2012 11:37:52 PM PDT · 58 of 98
    MitchellC to pogo101; tsowellfan; GeronL
    My problem isn’t a legal one here. PRostitution is legal in the DR, and Menendez isn’t married.

    Did you read the linked article? Always bringing in young women dressed a certain way, coming and going at exactly same time, every time, like clockwork. Sounds like Menendez is using hookers here in the US of A.
  • Polling: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly - Final: Don't Trust Exit Polls and Notes on Tracking

    11/01/2012 10:00:09 PM PDT · 13 of 15
    MitchellC to GOPFlack

    Another thing: we’re seeing an avalanche of polling from Democrat-aligned pollsters trying to tell us that Dems are leading or tightening all over the place. And yet Rasmussen, from what I’ve seen at least, has shown good numbers for our side in these last few days. Do you think this is a coordinated effort by the Dems to excite their base, while trying to depress Republicans into staying home?

  • Polling: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly - Final: Don't Trust Exit Polls and Notes on Tracking

    11/01/2012 9:51:49 PM PDT · 12 of 15
    MitchellC to GOPFlack

    This is an incredible series of posts you’ve given us. Thank you!

  • New Franklin & Marshall poll shows Romney closes gap on Obama in Pennsylvania (0 48, R 44)

    10/30/2012 11:50:24 PM PDT · 24 of 36
    MitchellC to Jet Jaguar; Perdogg; LS; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican
    Just now looking at a map of TV market maps, I realize that people on here and Twitter and elsewhere must have been wrong when they were speculating in weeks past that Romney/Ryan campaigning in western PA was meant mostly for eastern Ohio TV markets. Particularly in the case of Ryan's stop at the Pittsburgh airport, because the Pittsburgh TV market doesn't even go into Ohio. The two markets that cover the eastern OH border are for Youngstown, OH, and Steubenville, OH/Wheeling, WV. Only Youngstown's goes into PA, and only for a single county.

    http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/
    http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/ohio.gif
    http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/pennsylvania.gif
    http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/City%20Maps/Pittsburgh.gif
  • Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 27, 2012 (Senate Slowly Swinging)

    10/28/2012 12:45:14 PM PDT · 37 of 43
    MitchellC to Political Junkie Too

    You make some great points here. On messaging, one problem Republicans have had that Democrats haven’t is that the politicians on our side are less likely to fully embrace the general philosophy. I’m convinced that literally ALL of the Democrats are true believers in hardcore socialism, and that they will ALWAYS get away with every tiny bit as much as they think their constituents will put up with. There are no ‘blue dogs,’ there are only socialists smart enough to know which votes for socialist policy are permissible in the eyes of their state/district, as well as with an eye towards future higher office.

    But on our side, we often have to fight members of our caucus, even those who are representing conservative states/districts. Imagine trying to do the kind of messaging you’re talking about, in the past decade, with some of the Republicans we’ve had in the Senate, for example. Could we have really trusted Lincoln Chafee, Chuck Hagel, John McCain, Greg Voinovich, Lisa Murkowski, Lindsay Graham, Bob Bennet etc. to carry out conservative messaging?

    Could you imagine Dems representing Dem states breaking their messaging? Never in a million years.

  • Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 27, 2012 (Senate Slowly Swinging)

    10/28/2012 11:57:24 AM PDT · 35 of 43
    MitchellC to randita

    Disagree with some of this list. Connie Mack has been a complete bomb, and even with these favorable conditions it will take a miracle for him to win. On the other hand Tom Smith and Linda McMahon are running ahead of Romney in their states, and if Romney wins the popular vote nationally by more than few percentage points, I think they’ll be swept in. Even Todd Akin has been polling better than Mack - so much for the predictions of a blowout there.

    Kyrillos is a complete non-entity, and I’d rank him behind Summers, who could pull out an upset if the Dem candidate over-performs and Romney puts some focus on ME-2 in the closing days, and Lingle who at least is well known and liked. I’d like to see Ras or someone remotely respectable poll in ME and HI, because lately it’s been nothing but those untrustworthy newspaper polls there.

  • Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 27, 2012 (Senate Slowly Swinging)

    10/28/2012 11:08:11 AM PDT · 33 of 43
    MitchellC to LS

    Boy I hope you’re right. I’ve been wondering if Mandel is hurt by how young he looks.

  • Des Moines Register endorses Romney

    10/27/2012 5:25:31 PM PDT · 12 of 73
    MitchellC to Perdogg

    That might leave a mark.

  • Don't Be Surprised if It's Pennsylvania

    10/27/2012 1:36:06 PM PDT · 66 of 74
    MitchellC to Alberta's Child
    I'll give an explanation for Obama's miserable performance in the first debate, his surprisingly mediocre convention speech, and his frightfully inept (if not worse) response to the Benghazi consulate attack, too. He was told by his own people several months ago that he's going down in flames, and he's basically been mailing it in since then.

    I thought the same thing when watching the first debate, but then again I'm wondering if his own people would have the guts to tell him that sort of thing, at least in that way. You'd think they would paint a rosier scenario to him than 'you can't win,' if only to prevent him from doing these sorts of things and hurting their down-ballots. Also, 'you can't win' probably sounds bad coming from guys hired to make sure he wins. I suppose there could have been no second opinions available, though?

    It does make a lot of sense out of the VP and 2nd debate performances though - get the base excited with dumb crap, fight to keep the party from splitting apart.
  • Don't Be Surprised if It's Pennsylvania

    10/27/2012 12:59:49 PM PDT · 64 of 74
    MitchellC to Perdogg
    Many African-American preachers have already indicated that Obama hasn't done anything for black people and that his views on gay marriage do not match their own. They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls.

    The idea that this is going to have a big effect on black turnout is wishful thinking on our part. That isn't to say that it couldn't have had an effect, if someone had undertaken a major campaign to point out Obama's queer-loving to blacks, but the occasional pastor here or there isn't getting it done. Not from what I've seen in the early voting statistics here in NC and the anecdotal experience, anyway.

    Therefore, I would NOT expect a significant drop-off in black turnout. If it's below 95% of what it was in 2008, I'll be surprised.
  • Oregon Poll: 0 47%, R 42%

    10/26/2012 10:12:54 PM PDT · 38 of 81
    MitchellC to Impy

    Is this a credible pollster?

  • Breaking Rasmussen : Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 46%, Smith (R) 45%

    10/26/2012 9:59:17 PM PDT · 45 of 52
    MitchellC to fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; Clintonfatigued; randita; InterceptPoint; LS; BillyBoy; ...
    Casey (D) 46%, Smith (R) 45%

    OH, BABY! GO, SMITH, GO!!!!!!!!!!!

    So glad that the Susquehanna wasn't the only poll to show this one going toward Smith!

    HamiltonJay: "Casey’s a horrible candidate and should be an easy kill."

    Something always told me Casey had a glass jaw - rode in on daddy's name in a heavily Dem cycle against a badly damaged Republican - and that he shouldn't be written off as impossible to beat. This has become the sleeper race of the cycle, like (to my mind anyway) Ron Johnson beating Russ Feingold which wasn't expected early on. Casey should be destroyed by his Obamacare vote, period.

    nathanbedford: "Does anybody have an explanation for the disparity between the numbers for Smith and the numbers for Romney? Rasmussen has Romney down about five.

    Why would Obama be so much more popular than Casey or why would Romney be so much less popular than Smith?"

    I suspect it could be chalked up to Romney having not campaigned that hard in PA so far, while Smith must be running a good campaign. Rasmussen is telling us that Smith has better favorability numbers than Casey. According to tweets from TalkingPointMemo today:
    PollTracker ‏@PollTracker

    Tom Smith Favorability (PA): Favorable 47.0% Unfavorable 34.0% (Oct. 24 - Rasmussen) http://tpm.ly/PvBJzV

    PollTracker ‏@PollTracker

    Bob Casey Favorability (PA) : Favorable 43.0% Unfavorable 42.0% (Oct. 24 - Rasmussen) http://tpm.ly/PvBFjE

    And to show that either this wasn't a wildly GOP-skewed poll, or Tom Corbett is *extremely* unpopular right now:
    PollTracker ‏@PollTracker

    Tom Corbett Job Approval (PA): Disapprove 48.0% Approve 42.0% (Oct. 24 - Rasmussen) http://tpm.ly/TKbnWa
  • Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 48%, Mandel (R) 44%

    10/25/2012 6:58:18 PM PDT · 21 of 21
    MitchellC to Clintonfatigued

    On the plus side, if Romney does pull out a bit of a landslide nationally, it could boost Mandel over the line. But then again, Brown wouldn’t exactly be the first Senator to win despite polling under 50%. And this is the state that kept sending back the vile Metzenbaum.

  • Richard Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy

    10/25/2012 6:08:21 PM PDT · 140 of 154
    MitchellC to jackmercer

    No, for one because it’ll never happen. I sure wouldn’t cry if it did happen, though, because it would completely destroy the Democrat party as it exists. For whatever it’s worth, I’d also be for raising the voting age to about 35, which would currently disqualify me.

  • Vanity: We must win the senate (personal plea)

    10/24/2012 12:37:41 AM PDT · 42 of 55
    MitchellC to Kolath

    Best wishes for your mother, father and yourself.

  • Richard Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy

    10/23/2012 11:54:36 PM PDT · 89 of 154
    MitchellC to indianrightwinger

    “Expect this story to dominate rest of the week.”

    Dominate what? The same networks that have spent a month talking about binders and Big Bird instead of Benghazi?

  • Richard Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy

    10/23/2012 10:31:20 PM PDT · 81 of 154
    MitchellC to Impy; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican

    “Stupid” is a word I’ll reserve for anyone who decides not to vote for Mourdock over this. He was asked the question about rape and abortion. Again, let’s not pile on and turn this into a story of ‘Mourdock’s inevitable loss’ or some such crap.

  • Richard Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy

    10/23/2012 9:22:57 PM PDT · 73 of 154
    MitchellC to Strategerist; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; Clintonfatigued
    That Mourdock's statement would only be offensive to self-proclaimed atheists is a fantasy.

    I'm sure a number of 'soft thinkers,' particularly women, will switch from Mourdock because of this. But I'm sure that many, many more will switch from Mourdock if a pile-on that includes vocal Republican men ensues.

    This is ALL about shaming Romney-voting women away from Mourdock. Mourdock's own statement after the debate, already posted at least twice on this thread, ought to be enough to dissuade anyone here considering in joining in on a pile-on.
  • Richard Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy

    10/23/2012 8:41:19 PM PDT · 55 of 154
    MitchellC to paglia444
    “Only an idiot or an emotional pussy would get bent out of shape about that.”

    Or an undecided voter who doesn’t share the “common, Christian belief” that he does.


    Oh, please. We know better than this.

    This isn't going to hurt Mourdock with atheists because he never had them to begin with.

    Everybody knows what this is really about - shaming Romney-voting women out of voting for Mourdock. Period. And the pile-on by Republican men will only give that 'shaming' credibility.
  • Richard Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy

    10/23/2012 8:00:22 PM PDT · 22 of 154
    MitchellC to Strategerist
    what matters are the views of undecided voters in Indiana. I assure you that especially among women, they will not be positive.

    And that would only be the latest in a long line of proof that letting women vote was a terrible idea.

    Shame on anybody dumb enough to fall for this sh*t.

    He's expressing the common, Christian belief about life. Only an idiot or an emotional pussy would get bent out of shape about that.
  • Election Night Guide!

    10/20/2012 11:29:49 PM PDT · 27 of 68
    MitchellC to NY4Romney; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy; campaignPete R-CT; ...

    A FR chat room for election night is a good idea, NY4Romney. Make sure it’s one that can handle the traffic, of course.

  • Election Night Guide!

    10/20/2012 9:58:00 PM PDT · 18 of 68
    MitchellC to NY4Romney; LS; Perdogg; randita; InterceptPoint; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; ...
    Very interesting! Thanks for posting this info, MY4Romney (and welcome to FR).

    Everyone pinged - Are these poll closing times correct?

    My plan for election day is to be part of the Romney-Ryan Election Day Task Force. The gig involves being a poll watcher and relaying information (most importantly, who has voted) throughout the day to the Romney HQ via a Smart Phone app. If anyone knows someone who might be interested in doing that, please direct them to that link.

    As for what I'll be doing after that... all I've decided on right now is it will probably involve alcohol.
  • Breaking Tweet: PA Poll: Romney 49 Obama 45

  • Breaking Tweet: PA Poll: Romney 49 Obama 45

    10/18/2012 8:07:09 PM PDT · 133 of 147
    MitchellC to DAC21; LS; Perdogg; AuH2ORepublican; randita; Clintonfatigued; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; ...
    Up 4 in PA?, I’ll maybe believe this when I see Obama back in PA campaigning.

    Heck, they've been sending Jill Biden to campaign in friggin' Minnesota recently. They've also apparently been doing mailers in Oregon.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they adopt an 'ignore all our polling and hope for a miracle' approach where everyone can see they're losing states like PA, MI, etc., but they won't seriously campaign there because it's admitting defeat. So they keep on campaigning in OH, IA, NH, NV because that's what a Dem would do in a "normal," close race.
  • Breaking Tweet: PA Poll: Romney 49 Obama 45

    10/18/2012 7:49:41 PM PDT · 132 of 147
    MitchellC to St_Thomas_Aquinas

    I’m seriously starting to think the whole damn country is in play.

  • Election underway as 1.9 million Colorado ballots are mailed to voters (> 1/2 mailed on 10/15/12)

    10/17/2012 8:46:08 PM PDT · 24 of 40
    MitchellC to LS

    Repubs are killing it in NC, almost 2 for every 1 Dem, but again I must point out that in mail-in absentees in 2008 we saw the exact same thing, and that Dems overcame it in-person. So while I hope you’re right about OH, I still don’t feel safe in drawing similar conclusions about NC from the numbers so far.

  • Gallup: R51/045

    10/17/2012 3:48:40 PM PDT · 116 of 138
    MitchellC to struggle

    Are you sure those arent just national ads?

  • Yet Another CEO Asks Employees to Vote Romney for Sake of the Company (And Their Jobs)

    10/14/2012 5:26:43 PM PDT · 20 of 30
    MitchellC to 2ndDivisionVet

    I hope it’s an avalanche with coattails.

  • Behavior Research Center (Who are they?) AZ: 0 44% / R:42%

    10/13/2012 7:05:08 PM PDT · 15 of 22
    MitchellC to originalbuckeye; Hokestuk

    Check out the AZ polls on RCP. This group has polled AZ three times this year and every time has found Obama ahead... and they’re the ONLY poll to do so, ever.

  • Help Romney Beat Obama Without Donating Money

    10/13/2012 1:00:55 PM PDT · 36 of 36
    MitchellC to Ziva

    I’ve signed up for this and was ready to go, but man does that script seem stilted. Do you read the provided script as it is, or do you use it as a guide? I’m supposed to know who it is I’m speaking to without it giving me a certain way to ask, in the script. I also don’t see questions on the issues. How do you do it?

  • In January 2013, the US Senate will have had a 53% turnover

    10/12/2012 10:37:53 PM PDT · 17 of 23
    MitchellC to randita; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; BillyBoy; InterceptPoint; ...

    Interesting list, Randita. I think you rank VA and FL a bit too highly, though. Here’s how I see it, from most to least likely:

    NE - Fischer v Kerrey (GAIN)
    AZ - Flake v Carmona (HOLD)
    MT - Rehberg v Tester (GAIN)
    NV - Heller v Berkley (HOLD)
    IN - Mourdock v Donnelly (HOLD)
    ND - Berg v Heitkamp (GAIN)
    OH - Mandel v Brown (GAIN)
    MO - Akin v McCaskill (GAIN)
    WI - Thompson v Baldwin (GAIN)
    MA - Brown v Warren (HOLD)
    CT - McMahon v Murphy (GAIN)
    VA - Allen v Kaine (GAIN)
    FL - Mack v Nelson (GAIN)
    PA - Smith v Casey (GAIN)
    ME - Summers v King (HOLD)
    MI - Hoekstra v Stabenow (GAIN)
    HI - Lingle v Hirono (GAIN)
    NM - Wilson v Heinrich (GAIN)
    NJ - Kyrillos v Menendez (GAIN)

    I wish we had a stronger candidate in ND. Berg didn’t impress me when I saw him in a debate in 2010, and now he’s letting what should be a pretty easy win turn into a drain on resources.

    As dumb as the Akin comment was, he’s still competitive in the polls and McCaskill will be working against anti-Obama sentiment in the state. If she wins, I think it’ll be by a hair.

    It’s disappointing to see Tammy Baldwin is actually competitive in WI. I thought Thompson would wrap it up easily.

    McMahon is doing extremely well, again, and this time the Dems don’t have a candidate as (inexplicably) popular as Blumenthal. I’m putting Linda ahead of Allen and Mack because of polling, and her personal wealth. Like WI, neither VA or FL have panned out as easily as I thought they would. Especially in the case of Nelson, who should be destroyed at this point over his Obamacare vote alone.

    I’m excited at the tightening of PA.

    The ME situation is interesting. Oh to be a rich man with a PAC right about now, I’d be doing ads blasting King from the left on the coast, and from the right in the ME interior.

    Gotta say polling has been disappointing in MI and NM, here’s to hoping that those turn around.

  • Top 10 Vulnerable Members

    10/12/2012 9:38:49 PM PDT · 27 of 44
    MitchellC to Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; BillyBoy; InterceptPoint; randita

    I know he’s almost 70, but can’t we talk Don Carcieri into running for one of those RI seats?

    And speaking of old, does Pete DuPont have a kid we can run in DE?

  • Top 10 Vulnerable Members

    10/12/2012 9:25:21 PM PDT · 25 of 44
    MitchellC to Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; BillyBoy; InterceptPoint; randita
    How in the world could they rank Dan Benishek ahead of Jim Matheson? What's the Cook partisan rating for UT-4?

    It isn't inconceivable that Mike McIntyre could hang on in NC-7. I was very disappointed that state Sen. Dave Rouzer beat Ilario Pantano in the primary there - no kidding, if I were running Pantano's campaign I would have labeled him "The White Allen West." At the very least it would have drawn in big $ online contributions. (West also raised money for Pantano at one point, IIRC.)

    Kissell in NC-8 is toast. The Indians in Robeson County will vote for him but it will be more than washed out by the ultra-GOP counties in the central Piedmont that were taken from Howard Coble's old 6th district, as well as ultra-GOP Charlotte suburbs in western Union County. Another district with a disappointing GOP nominee.

    And in case you missed it, in what was yet another absolutely hilarious turn of events in the South Carolina Democratic Party, the establishment once again couldn't get their 'real' candidate nominated, this time in the new 7th district. That's now three congressional elections in a row - Paulite Bob Conley in 08, typical Obama voter Alvin Greene in 2010, and now Gloria Tinubu:
    Negative attack ads targeting Gloria Tinubu — paid for by a fellow Democrat — were still blanketing TVs across South Carolina’s new 7th Congressional District the day this story went to press June 19, even though the Coastal Carolina professor won her June 12 primary and will face a Republican in the fall.

    That’s because Preston Brittain, a Myrtle Beach attorney who had the backing of the Democratic Party establishment, still had airtime purchased before the S.C. Election Commission ordered on June 15 that he wouldn’t be able to face Tinubu in a runoff election.

    The Democratic primary for the newly drawn district that encompasses coastal Horry County and parts of the heartland Pee Dee area had been upended once already.

    That happened when presumed frontrunner Rep. Ted Vick, a part-time minister from Chesterfield, dropped out of the race after being charged with a DUI and carrying an illegal firearm while driving a college-aged woman (not his wife) home from a Columbia bar.

    With Vick out of the race, Tinubu beat Brittain and two other little-known candidates at the polls, and it appeared she’d won.

    But even though Vick had dropped out, roughly 2,300 people voted for him, and the S.C. Election Commission threw out the votes. When state Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian found out, he complained that had those votes been counted, Tinubu would not have had the percentage needed to win the race outright and should be forced into a runoff with Brittain. Harpootlian said the people who voted for Vick shouldn’t be disenfranchised.

    On June 15, the Election Commission voted otherwise, and certified Tinubu as the winner. The commission told other media outlets it only counts votes cast for actual candidates when calculating percentages for a runoff. Under that arithmetic, Tinubu won 52 percent to Brittain’s 39 percent.

    [...]

    Before moving to South Carolina roughly six months ago, Tinubu served in the Georgia legislature. She did not finish her term.
    We need to find a way to put the SC Dems in charge of the national party.
  • Nate Silver: Romney now a 60/40 favorite in Florida after addition of Mason-Dixon poll.

    10/11/2012 11:41:10 PM PDT · 25 of 53
    MitchellC to BradyLS

    The weird thing was that while the McCain campaign had completely pulled out of Michigan, they were sending Palin to do rallies in places like Orange County, California, only a couple of weeks before the election. Talk about not making sense.

  • Nate Silver: Romney now a 60/40 favorite in Florida after addition of Mason-Dixon poll.

    10/11/2012 9:50:03 PM PDT · 16 of 53
    MitchellC to goldstategop

    Uggh, good lord. I bet the Democrats were hearing those same kinds of comments about North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana before they actually tried for them in 2008.

  • Obama Collapse in Illinois: Tied in District He Won by 23 Points in 08

    10/04/2012 11:59:45 PM PDT · 61 of 81
    MitchellC to Jet Jaguar; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Clintonfatigued; randita; AuH2ORepublican

    How different does this district look from 2008, since it has been re-drawn? Weren’t these GOP-held districts drawn to give the Dems an overwhelming shot at knocking off the GOP incumbents? And if so, and assuming this poll is accurate, what then does it mean for Romney chances in IL (and beyond)?