Posts by nailspitter

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  • AP-GfK poll: Romney erases Obama lead among women

    10/25/2012 7:29:16 AM PDT · 18 of 27
    nailspitter to xzins

    Poll sample is 48% Dem. vs. 37% Republican. Still Romney leads.

  • IBD/TIPP Poll - Is it Credible?

    10/20/2012 1:53:13 PM PDT · 21 of 50
    nailspitter to NY4Romney

    I’m pretty sure this poll showed Romney’s support among conservatives dropping from 72% to 68% over a two day span. That was yesterday or the day before, if I recall correctly. There’s something goofy going on with this poll this year, even though in the past it’s been pretty accurate.

  • Brand New Nationwide Poll: Obama 47%, Romney 44%

    10/14/2012 7:20:25 PM PDT · 42 of 60
    nailspitter to whatsXequalsX

    Online polls are not real polls. You will not find them listed at RealClearPolitics’ compilation of polls or at Pollingreport.com. And beyond that, Zogby is a joke.

  • Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November

    09/29/2012 8:35:32 PM PDT · 12 of 159
    nailspitter to Longbow1969

    Jeez. I’m replying to no one in particular.

    Ras jumps around, within a narrow band. Romney was ahead with leaners earlier in the week. When he’s ahead again in a few days do we say `whew,’ now we’re gonna win? If the Dem turnout surpasses the Republican turnout by one two or three, we win. If it’s four, it’s truly a tossup. Five or better, we lose.

  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll [47 Days Away, Obamugabe at -9]

    09/20/2012 7:09:58 AM PDT · 22 of 102
    nailspitter to WILLIALAL

    Hey y’all. It’s called statistical noise. Chill out.

  • Rasmussen Poll (Obama +2)

    08/28/2012 7:23:41 AM PDT · 16 of 41
    nailspitter to Sans-Culotte

    I watch Rasmussen daily. Have for years. I’ll bet this is just statistical noise. Other polls coming out in the last couple days show a Romney surge. Even CBS News today in a registered voter poll shows Obama up by only one point. My take is that right now Romeny has a small lead.

  • Rasmussen Poll (Obama +2)

    08/28/2012 7:23:36 AM PDT · 14 of 41
    nailspitter to Sans-Culotte

    I watch Rasmussen daily. Have for years. I’ll bet this is just statistical noise. Other polls coming out in the last couple days show a Romney surge. Even CBS News today in a registered voter poll shows Obama up by only one point. My take is that right now Romeny has a small lead.

  • Rasmussen: Missouri - Obama 47 Romney 46

    08/24/2012 6:52:32 AM PDT · 20 of 345
    nailspitter to Shadow44

    I agree Aikin’s gotta go, but Missouri won’t go for Obama. No way. This is a poll gauging people’s immediate reaction to Aikin’s goofy comments.No way they vote for Obama over this.

  • Romney to announce running mate Saturday in Va.

    08/10/2012 9:40:55 PM PDT · 77 of 100
    nailspitter to marygonzo

    Friday, August 10, 2012

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

    And this poll doesn’t oversample Dems by 7 to 19% like all the other recent polls showing Obama ahead have done, including Fox which uses an outside firm to do its polling.

  • Will Obama hand over Koran-burning soldiers to Islamic court?

    02/29/2012 9:19:03 PM PST · 22 of 54
    nailspitter to Lmo56

    B.O. is stupid, but not this stupid.

  • Will Obama hand over Koran-burning soldiers to Islamic court?

    02/29/2012 9:18:54 PM PST · 21 of 54
    nailspitter to Lmo56

    B.O. is stupid, but not this stupid.

  • An Early Look at Obama's Re-elect

    02/09/2011 7:09:33 AM PST · 18 of 28
    nailspitter to ScottinVA

    As thing stand today,I don’t see Obama taking any states in the South next time. If he loses in Ohio, which appears likely now, he can’t win re-election.

  • Ron Paul is wrong on the Civil War and slavery, and he should be ashamed

    08/05/2010 10:09:54 PM PDT · 286 of 861
    nailspitter to arrogantsob

    Here is New York’s ratification document — Pertinent line at beggining of fourth paragraph:

    We, the delegates of the people of the state of New York, duly elected and met in Convention, having maturely considered the Constitution for the United States of America, agreed to on the 17th day of September, in the year 1787, by the Convention then assembled at Philadelphia, in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, (a copy whereof precedes these presents,) and having also seriously and deliberately considered the present situation of the United States, — Do declare and make known, —

    That all power is originally vested in, and consequently derived from, the people, and that government is instituted by them for their common interest, protection, and security.

    That the enjoyment of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, are essential rights, which every government ought to respect and preserve.

    That the powers of government may be reassumed by the people whensoever it shall become necessary to their happiness; that every power, jurisdiction, and right, which is not by the said Constitution clearly delegated to the Congress of the United States, or the departments of the government thereof, remains to the people of the several states, or to their respective state governments, to whom they may have granted the same; and that those clauses in the said Constitution, which declare that Congress shall not have or exercise certain powers, do not imply that Congress is entitled to any powers not given by the said Constitution; but such clauses are to be construed either as exceptions to certain specified powers, or as inserted merely for greater caution.

  • Ron Paul is wrong on the Civil War and slavery, and he should be ashamed

    08/05/2010 6:56:53 AM PDT · 54 of 861
    nailspitter to central_va

    At the time Virginia and New York ratified the Constitution (the two largest and most influential states) they declared that they did so with the understanding they could secede. This was acceptable to the remaining states, and the Constitution was ratified with that understanding. The Tenth Amendment was inserted into the Bill of Rights to make future secession unnecessary. Furthermore, if secession was illegal, why did New England seriously consider it in the War of 1812, and why did the Mass. Assembly pass an article of secession at the time Texas’ admission to the union? Why was a textbook in use at West Point’s government class that taught that secession was legal?

    After the Civil War, there was talk of a trial for Jefferson Davis for treason. The Chief Justice of the Supreme court advised against a treason trial for Davis because, since secession was legal, in his opinion, Davis would be acquitted and the South would win in court what it had just lost on the battlefield.Secession was only declared illegal by the Supreme Court about 1867.

    Talk about historical revisionism. Jeez!! This is not to say that the South should have seceeded or that it would have been a good thing had they been successful. But secession was most definitely not illegal.

  • Why the Electoral College Matters (A campaign to circumvent the Elector College is underway)

    07/30/2010 7:29:27 AM PDT · 11 of 35
    nailspitter to SeekAndFind

    Unconstitutional. Constitution prohibits compacts or agreements among states. One state passing a law that doesn’t take effect until other states pass the same law is clearly prohibited.

  • Mass Legislature approves plan to bypass Electoral College

    07/27/2010 9:53:15 PM PDT · 119 of 131
    nailspitter to NonValueAdded

    States have a right to decide how to allocate their electoral votes, but they may not enter into compacts or agreements with other states. Here’s the pertinent part of the Constitution:

    Section 10 - Powers prohibited of States...

    No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

    If passing a bill that will not go into effect until the same provision is passed by other states is not a compact or agreement with those other states, what is?

    I believe that this is completely unconstitutional.

  • 74% Americans Know What the 4th of July is About, 26 Percent are Clueless

    07/03/2010 8:43:46 AM PDT · 17 of 31
    nailspitter to himno hero

    I used to work with a very intelligent woman who had recently graduated from college. Somehow the subject of the American Revolution came up and it became obvious she had no clue as to which country we rebelled against, or when. She was a bit insulted by my reaction as it never occurred to me that anyone in this country wouldn’t know that, and I was shocked by her ignorance. She explained that she simply is not interested in American history. I explained I’m not interested in astronomy but I know what the moon is. Anyway, she’s a huge leftist from the SF Bay area. I suspect most of those completely ignorant about our history are leftist radicals, if they are involved in politics at all.

  • Texas AG Abbott (Just Tweeted) Organizing AG Call TONITE - Across Country

    03/21/2010 4:44:38 PM PDT · 13 of 330
    nailspitter to bigbob

    I saw the Attorney General of Florida on Fox. He “promises” to have a lawsuit filed within one hour of the President’s signing of this bill. He also said that Arizona’s governor will be joining the suit, since that state’s AG is a Dem. I understand that Virginia and Idaho have already passed state laws nullifying this bill. I’m sure many states will be joining this suit.

  • IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day One (Obama 43 v. McCain 41)

    10/13/2008 6:21:09 PM PDT · 12 of 67
    nailspitter to Chet 99

    If I remember correctly, this poll was dead on in 2004. Two points considering the recent economic problems is nothing. If the stock market continues to improve a little McCain will win this thing.

  • Hotline/FD Tracking Poll: Obama 47%, McCain 41% (Obama +5 from yesterday)

    10/09/2008 7:29:58 AM PDT · 20 of 80
    nailspitter to tatown

    Today’s Battleground and Rasmussen polls both show McCain gaining today. Zogby shows him down one (statical noise?) and then there’s this one. Obviously, McCain isn’t going up and down at the same time so somebody’s out to lunch here. The race is tight and McCain is just starting to hit Obama on the terrorist connection. I think that’ll really hurt Obama. And then there’s the communist/islamist Odinga connection. I hope McCain is watching that one closely.

  • Hotline/FD Tracking Poll: Obama 47%, McCain 41% (Obama +5 from yesterday)

    10/09/2008 7:29:02 AM PDT · 18 of 80
    nailspitter to tatown

    Today’s Battleground and Rasmussen polls both show McCain gaining today. Zogby shows him down one (statical noise?) and then there’s this one. Obviously, McCain isn’t going up and down at the same time so somebody’s out to lunch here. The race is tight and McCain is just starting to hit Obama on the terrorist connection. I think that’ll really hurt Obama. And then there’s the communist/islamist Odinga connection. I hope McCain is watching that one closely.

  • McCain plans fiercer strategy against Obama

    10/03/2008 8:02:49 PM PDT · 48 of 159
    nailspitter to Chet 99

    It doesn’t matter what the media does. Obama made the mistake of taping himself reading his own book. Just run the interview of Obama saying he went to church twice a month, then saying he didn’t ever hear anything bad coming out of Wright’s mouth. Then run Obama himself saying he joined the church because of sermons like the one entitled “the world in need because of white man’s greed,” or words to that effect. Finish the spot with Wright shouting “God D America.” Run it over and over in Ohio, Pennsylvania and yes, Michigan, and McCain wins handily.

  • Battleground Drops It weighting ( Or A How to Manipulate a Tracking Poll in one easy step)

    10/01/2008 7:31:47 PM PDT · 8 of 15
    nailspitter to ncalburt

    I went to the link and read that with leaners Battleground now has about 9% more Democrats than Republicans in their nightly samples. Most other polling firms are at about that same level of Dems over Republicans. Since the last 10 presedential elections (40 years) have never had a disparity of more than 4% between the parties, I don’t understand why they don’t just set the partisan model at that and go with it. Of course, it would put McCain in the lead.

  • Rasmussen, O:51, M:45

    10/01/2008 7:12:05 AM PDT · 16 of 24
    nailspitter to TNCMAXQ

    Yeah, and ABC also shows McCain ahead among White women and Catholics. It’s not in the poll but we know McCain has a larger share of Democrats than Obama has of Republicans. So how is McCain behind? I don’t think it’s statistically possible unless they’re polling a huge excess of Democrats. They admitted that in their fake poll last week that had Obama up 9 points, but I don’t think party affiliation is listed in this new poll.

  • What if Obama Represent The Last Gasp of the Past?

    09/28/2008 1:58:44 PM PDT · 6 of 11
    nailspitter to moneyrunner

    I’ve been telling my family this for months. He’s a deciple of the 60s radicals, a bunch that’s already in decline. They went to college to avoid Vietnam, stayed in academia or went into government or foundations or “research” or “community activism.” Most 60s hippie/marxists grew out of it but some landed in a cocoon that kind of pickled them in their radicalism. Yes, Obama is the end of that line. This is their peak, their last shot at power. Hopefully, America and Western Civilization will dodge this bullet and finally be finished with these twitts.

  • Gallup Daily: Obama Holds 5-Point Lead

    09/27/2008 10:26:02 AM PDT · 45 of 101
    nailspitter to Chet 99

    I think a little patience is in order. We don’t know the full fallout from the bailout yet. These current polls mostly oversample Dems anyway. There’s no way McCain is ahead among indies by double digits but still behind overall, which both the Washington Post and LA Times polls reported a couple of days ago. If the bailout goes through with some conservative House input, as now appears likely, McCain may come out of this the hero whether the networks report it or not. It’s not time to panic, but to get to work.

  • RealClearPolitics State of the Electoral College as at September 27,2008

    09/27/2008 8:19:01 AM PDT · 53 of 67
    nailspitter to pgkdan

    A poll out yesterday has Mac ahead in Co. If we hold that one, we win.

  • Rasmussen: O 50 - M 44

    09/27/2008 7:16:52 AM PDT · 35 of 123
    nailspitter to GOREFREETENNESSEE

    There is a tape of Obama reading from his own book. He says “the world’s in need because of the white man’s greed” or something very close to that and then states that type of sermon is the reason he joined Wright’s church.

  • Rasmussen 9/26/08: Obama 50% McCain 45%

    09/26/2008 6:58:40 AM PDT · 64 of 120
    nailspitter to Westbrook

    My impression is that Battleground polling is more respected than Rasmussen, though I generally like Rasmussen too. But this year he’s had some odd results. In FL he consistently shows McCain even or with a very small lead while other pollsters have usually shown McCain with a 6 point lead or so. Now he’s showing NC tied, which I seriously doubt. And last night he has Obama surging while Battleground shows McCain up a tick. Obviously, both these polls can’t be right but I don’t think we should become obsessed over Rasmussen when another highly respected poll shows the opposite result.

  • Battleground Poll today McCain by 2 (48-46)

    09/24/2008 7:11:53 AM PDT · 36 of 40
    nailspitter to longtermmemmory

    I think they should underweight Black people because of where they live. Alabama will go Republican in spite of heavy Black turnout and Maryland or New York will go Dem in spite of heavy Black turnout. I’d say 65% of the Black vote is moot because they live in states that always go the same way in the Electoral College regardless of how the Blacks vote.

  • Rasmussen 9/24/2008: Obama 49% McCain 47%

    09/24/2008 7:03:39 AM PDT · 39 of 92
    nailspitter to nailspitter

    Oops. I shouldn’t check this stuff this early. McCain is up 2 in Battleground. He was only up 1 yesterday.

  • Rasmussen 9/24/2008: Obama 49% McCain 47%

    09/24/2008 6:58:35 AM PDT · 35 of 92
    nailspitter to ncalburt

    I just checked RealClear. When you actually click on the Battleground link and go to the graph it shows McCain up by 3. It was 2 for yesterday.

  • Poll: Economic Discontent Boosts Barack Obama Over John McCain (Obama 52 , McCain 43)

    09/23/2008 9:40:31 PM PDT · 26 of 151
    nailspitter to Doogle

    The race narrowed today in Rasmussen, Gallup and I think Hotline tracking polls. McCain is also ahead by two in the Battleground tracking poll. This is a poll of adults and it’s an ABC news poll too. I think that’s all that needs to be said.

  • Interesting explanation for Obama's "Surge" of late in Gallup Poll

    09/20/2008 12:16:15 PM PDT · 41 of 65
    nailspitter to KeatsforFirstDog

    On another point about polling that I’ve been wondering about. What percent of Obama’s overall national support in these polls comes from Africa-Americans? It has to be several percentage points. But in the electoral college isn’t much of the Black vote mooted? I mean, New York will go a little more overwhelmingly Dem because of heavy Black turnout (maybe) and so will Maryland. So will Illinois. The South will go Republican, but maybe by a smaller margin because of heavy Black turnout. But none of this makes a hoot of a difference in the electoral college. Heavier Black support could make a difference in Michigan or Penn. and give those states to Obama, but he should have them anyway. So instead of oversampling Blacks, as some pollsters admit to doing, shouldn’t they be undersampling them simply because they live in states that will go the way they always go in spite of heavier Black turnout for Obama?

  • Interesting explanation for Obama's "Surge" of late in Gallup Poll

    09/20/2008 11:58:23 AM PDT · 32 of 65
    nailspitter to KeatsforFirstDog

    I went to the Gallup site and clicked on the link to the internal results. It says “how the race stands today” or something like that, but the latest figures appear to end at Sept. 14. That’s almost a week ago. During that week they show Obama surging into a lead. I’d like to see those internals updated to say, yesterday. I wonder why they haven’t updated them.

  • Rasmussen 9/18: McCain 48%, Obama 48% (with analysis)

    09/18/2008 7:05:00 AM PDT · 25 of 52
    nailspitter to RockinRight

    I think this is very encouraging. That McCain is still tied with all that’s going on in the financial markets must mean the underlying fundamentals of this election point to a McCain victory. Obama is just too far to the left and too inexperienced. I’m waiting for McCain to really launch some attack ads about Obama’s ties to the people that caused this fiasco and also hopefully attacking Obama’s Treasongate episode in Baghdad. I’m surprised they haven’t since they’re usually on top of things like this. I’m hoping they’ve got something devastating up their sleeves. Maybe they’re just trying to verify the exact extent of Obama’s interference with U.S. foreign and military policy before they pounce

  • New CBS Poll: Obama +5! As expected, look at the internal sampling for bias.

    09/18/2008 6:54:44 AM PDT · 41 of 45
    nailspitter to VaBthang4

    If you look at turnout over the last 20 years, the number of Dems to Repubs is usually about even. The maximum difference has been + 4% for the Democrats. No way is there going to be a 10 percentage point difference on election day. Since most polls are now using a turnout model of around + 10% for the Democrats, these polls are way off and leaning much further to the left than they should be.

  • Freepers can we please not panic about the polls today? (vanity)

    09/17/2008 7:11:14 AM PDT · 33 of 48
    nailspitter to reagan_fanatic

    Panic over a Zogby poll?? I don’t understand the question. Rasmussen has McCain’s lead holding at 1% today. That would seem to indicate there has been no deterioration over the last couple of nights because of the financial situation. I think the race is holding steady and that McCain has a very slight lead going into the debates. We’re in good shape.

  • Rasmussen 9/10/08: 48-47 Obama with leaners (46-46 w/o leaners)

    09/10/2008 7:12:46 AM PDT · 23 of 77
    nailspitter to forYourChildrenVote4Bush

    I usually think Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster, but even he admitted the other day that surging party ID for the Republicans after the convention may have rendered his turnout model, which is some months old, obsolete.

    I also wonder about likely vs. registered voters in this election. My wife volunteered in Republican headaquarters the other day and a guy came in who hadn’t voted since Reagan’s last election. He’s definitely voting to keep Obama out of the WH this time. He certainly wouldn’t be included in Rasmussen’s “likely voter” pool. He simply wouldn’t be counted. but he would be counted among Gallup’s registered voters. So which poll is more accurate this time? It could be Gallup.

  • Rassmussen Poll shows 1% lead for McCain 47 to 46

    09/08/2008 7:07:28 AM PDT · 38 of 64
    nailspitter to Batrachian

    The state by state polling numbers still favor Obama because they lag. State polls aren’t taken as often and are frequently weeks or even months old. If McCain is ahead, the state polls will start to reflect that fact over the next few weeks.

  • Rasmussen: 9/6/2008: Obama 46% McCain 45%

    09/06/2008 7:24:52 AM PDT · 46 of 88
    nailspitter to Miss Didi

    If I understand the methodology, Rassmussen polls over 3 days. The Wednesday polling was almost all completed before Palin’s speech. The Thursday polling before McCain’s speech, which we now know had more viewers than Obama’s. So we have 2 days of Palin and one of McCain. It also usually takes a couple more days for it all to sink in. I’m sure Rasmussen is correct when he says wait till next week.

  • Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll (no change,JM43%-BO48%, but w/Leaners=JM45%-BO50% was 51%)

    09/03/2008 7:13:08 AM PDT · 21 of 84
    nailspitter to CatOwner

    McCain is down because the Dems just had a convention. He’s only down 5 because the Palin announcement blunted the bounce. Now we’re having our convention and we’ll get a bounce. It should be pretty close to even after the dust settles, and then McCain can start taking Osama Obama apart, piece by terrorist-communist-racist-linked piece.

  • Rasmussen: Obama 51 - McCain 45 (from 49-46 yesterday)

    09/02/2008 7:14:12 AM PDT · 129 of 357
    nailspitter to hosepipe

    One (possibly bad) poll result showing Obama 6 points up when he should be up 15 after his convention doesn’t say much. One day’s polling isn’t a trend. It could just be “noise,” as they call it. Before the Dem convention, if we had been told Obabma would only be up 6 immediately after, we would have been dancing in the streets.

  • Rasmussen: Obama 51 - McCain 45 (from 49-46 yesterday)

    09/02/2008 6:57:48 AM PDT · 68 of 357
    nailspitter to austinaero

    Every poll, even the good ones, have a bad sample every so often. It’s just the way it works. This could just be a bad sample. Wait a few days. We should never panic over one poll result. Nothing happened yesterday that would give Obama a big bump. Millions of people didn’t change their minds overnight, which is what would have had to have happened if this poll is accurate.

  • Obama Confirms Relationship with CPUSA Member

    08/16/2008 8:29:05 AM PDT · 17 of 44
    nailspitter to SumProVita

    What’s black and white and red all over?

  • Gallup Daily: Obama 47%, McCain 42% (McCain has not led since May, underperforming Bush everywhere)

    08/09/2008 11:47:32 AM PDT · 19 of 173
    nailspitter to goldstategop

    Today’s Rasmussen poll has McCain and Hussein tied among likely voters and with leaners included McCain leads by one. On 9 of 14 major election issues that Rasmussen is tracking, McCain now leads Obama. His lead is also growing over Obama on the issues in which he leads. The trends are all in McCain’s favor now.

  • Things you might not know about Barack Obama (Holds Kenyan since 1963 citizenship)

    08/09/2008 11:40:30 AM PDT · 2 of 123
    nailspitter to Red Steel

    According to a post I saw yesterday, the Kenyan constitution clearly states that a foreign national obtaining Kenyan citizenship must renounce that foreign citizenship in order to be a Kenyan citizen. Therefore, the only way Obama legally could be a Kenyan would be for him to have renounced his US citizenship. This needs to be looked into.

  • DeLay: 'Unless Obama Proves Me Wrong, He Is a Marxist'

    06/05/2008 8:27:19 PM PDT · 21 of 24
    nailspitter to celtic gal

    I’ve read that Obama ran on the marxist New Party ticket when he first ran for the state Senate in 96. He actually sought the nomination and received it. He talks about hanging out with the Marxist professors at college in his book, and his church of 20+ years is a “black liberation” or marxist church. Obama is also ranked as the most liberal U.S. Senator, even more liberal than the socialist Sanders from Vermont. If he isn’t a marxist, then what is he?

  • D.C. gun ban clearly violates 2nd Amendment

    11/27/2007 6:36:29 PM PST · 53 of 374
    nailspitter to Gondring

    The constitutions of many (most?) states, as well as the United States Code, Title 10, Chapter 331 state that the militia consists of practically everyone. The U.S. Code states that the militia consists of the organized and unorganized militia, with the organized part being the National Guard and Naval militia, whatever that is. All other males over 18 who are not in the organized militia are members of the unorganized militia. If the SC rules nobody can have a gun except militia members — well OK — we’re all in the militia anyway. Does the left get this?

  • Firearms Industry Applauds Supreme Court Decision to Hear Second Amendment Case

    11/21/2007 7:38:33 PM PST · 48 of 67
    nailspitter to em2vn

    I don’t think the SC will rule against an individual right. But if they do the ruling will accomplish nothing.

    States that don’t like this ruling and want their citizens to be armed will simply declare all able-bodied citizens over 18 to be members of the militia. That’ll probably be the overwhelming majority of states. Certainly all of the South and most of the West. The anti-gun left wouldn’t be able to do anything about this because the SC just ruled the 2nd Amendment is a collective state right and this is how the states choose to exercise that right. So the actual result of such a ruling will be that the liberal cities in conservative states would have their anti-gun legislation overturned as a result of this action. Bring it on!!