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Posts by only1percent

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  • One in a "billion" Shot? Try a Quarter of a Million to One.

    07/21/2016 7:02:43 AM PDT · 20 of 31
    only1percent to marktwain

    It’s somewhat closer to 1 in 7 million.

    Figure that (angle of target gun aside) the placement grid is about a tenth of inch, and you can bring your shot to a square about 18 inches on a side — that 32,400 grid spots only one of which is good for true. That’s your odds of hitting the barrel.

    To go UP the barrel you then need angular alignment, which is controlled by the target person. Figure that the target gun is being pointed at you pretty closely, so there’s a grid of maybe 15 angles up/down and 15 angles side/side only one of which is good for true. You multiple by 32,400 by 225 (15x15) to get in one in 7,290,000.

  • Poll: Clinton and Trump Now Tied as GOP Convention Kicks Off (7/11-7/17)

    07/19/2016 6:23:40 AM PDT · 11 of 27
    only1percent to orchestra

    15% combined for the Green and Libertarian candidates?

    You’re tempted to say that’s going to collapse down to the customary 3%-4% that the third party candidates aggregate, but this is a special case. A lot of Democrats really hate Clinton, and a lot of Republicans ditto Trump. Johnson and Stein are each considerably less nutty than Ross Perot was.

  • Democratic National Committee staffer fatally shot in Washington

    07/11/2016 7:12:08 PM PDT · 51 of 57
    only1percent to BushCountry

    Still probably a mugging gone wrong.

    Muggers are little punks. Kids who can’t shoot waving around a cheap gun, maybe trying to seem big for an onlooker. They shoot a guy by accident, or out of sheer stupidity, the last they want is to take evidence with them — they’ll run.

    (Serious criminals in places like DC absolutely HATE muggers — they victimize people who will complain to and get the attention of cops. Drugs, car thefts, B&Es of places you verify to be empty ... these are the crimes that the cops barely care to take a report on.)

  • Whoa: Pro-Trump RNC member claims nearly 700 delegates are anti-Trump, 900 more are “in play”

    07/06/2016 6:41:36 PM PDT · 17 of 68
    only1percent to wastedyears

    There won’t be riots.

    I like a lot of what Trump says and will gladly vote for him over Clinton ... but if this far into it Trump can’t command the loyalty of 50%+1 of the delegates, what friggin’ chance does he have to get the GOTV work done he needs for a clean run of Iowa, Virginia, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylavia, all of which Obama carried twice and two of which were last won by a Republican in 1988, and which is the likely ticket to the White House for him given adverse population shifts in GWB states of Florida, Colorado, Nevada and 1-of-2 NH and NM.

  • October Surprise! Why ‘Silent Majority’ Won’t Reveal Trump Support Until Last Moment!

    07/04/2016 6:56:33 PM PDT · 15 of 51
    only1percent to 2ndDivisionVet

    The “silent majority” thing didn’t really bear out for Romney in 2012, or even for Brexit a week ago. (Brexit was consistently leading in the polls, but pundits and the financial and betting market simply refused to believe it.)

  • VP vetting? Trump meets with Sen. Joni Ernst

    07/04/2016 6:25:46 PM PDT · 51 of 106
    only1percent to profit_guy

    She’s quite a reasonable choice.

    Trump will not be President without a solid majority of white women. A CREDIBLE woman on the ticket will help.

    In a close election, Florida, Colorado and Nevada are GONE because of their demographics — Hispanics in all three states, Jews and African Americans in Florida, yuppies in Colorado. Trump has to SWEEP Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia to win. Your statewide Republican choices from those states are limited — Branstad (over 70), Synder (unpopular), Kasich (Trump no like), Portman (RINO, up for re-election), Toomey (up for re-election) ... and Ernst.

  • The Utter Inconsequence of Hillary’s Veep

    07/03/2016 10:41:21 AM PDT · 35 of 43
    only1percent to MomwithHope

    I’d be surprised if Clinton announces her choice more than a day or two early. She can watch three weeks of news and the DNC can run 20,000 call tracking polls every night of the RNC and afterwards, and figure out where they want to be.

    My guess is she goes with a black man. She needs to make her choices on the assumption it’s going to be a close race, and it only gets to be a close race if her appeals to moderate whites fall on deaf ears but Hispanics and liberal whites are behind her strongly. If she holds with moderate whites, Trump is done, and if she can’t hold with Hispanics and liberal whites, she’s done.

    But in a world where moderate whites are strongly pro-Trump a white running mate yields nothing, and she wins by getting Obama-level turnout among African Americans in Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

  • CNN reports no charges against Hillary

    07/03/2016 10:12:22 AM PDT · 125 of 145
    only1percent to KeyLargo

    Ultimately, it’s better for Trump. There was never a world where he would run against an indicted Clinton. Her indictment = her replacement by a far more popular Democrat.

  • The truth about Clinton’s alarmingly poor numbers

    07/01/2016 9:28:53 AM PDT · 6 of 24
    only1percent to Oldpuppymax

    Many polls don’t break down Evangelicals by race. Black and Hispanic Evagelicals are measurably more conservative than irreligious, Catholic and mainstream Protestants of their race ... but still lean hard Dem.

  • What Does It take to Be Upper Middle Class?

    06/27/2016 7:11:40 AM PDT · 36 of 37
    only1percent to jocon307

    That’s a bit of an exaggeration. It’s about $300k to have a nice house in a good school district with most the trimmings in the NY suburbs — so $300k, maybe $350k for a two earning family given the costs of the second income. You can spend vastly more, but you don’t have to do so to hold your head high. $90k in deductible mortgage interest, property tax, and state income tax, $60k in federal income and payroll tax, and $150k for cost of living and savings.

  • The Pentagon's controversial plan to hire military leaders off the street

    06/19/2016 1:31:13 PM PDT · 41 of 58
    only1percent to exDemMom

    I hear what you’re saying, but I’ve also given job interviews to tons of officers about to or recently retired with 20 (i.e., in their early 40s) and there is literally no job that those guys could possibly have done that this guy could not have learned in six months and done standing on his head. At a certain point, talent is talent.

  • The Pentagon's controversial plan to hire military leaders off the street

    06/19/2016 1:00:20 PM PDT · 35 of 58
    only1percent to BBell

    I am sort of sympathetic. One of the most talented people I know went down to the recruiter in late 2004, height of the war in Iraq, and asked about his options. 39, great shape, two Ivy League degrees, three fluent languages, ran a desk of 50 guys on Wall Street and made seven figures consistently ... got told that he couldn’t get a commission but that maybe the National Guard could use him at E3 because of how many guys were being medicaled out after having their bells rung by IEDs on their deployment. In other words: we value your super-intelligence just up about to the point where it exceeds that of people with brain damage. That’s not the best use of human resources at war.

  • The Coming Constitutional Crisis Over Hillary Clinton’s EmailGate

    06/16/2016 10:10:43 AM PDT · 14 of 40
    only1percent to InterceptPoint

    The emailgate thing is nothing to get excited about.

    She’s not indicted = full vindication in the media.

    She’s indicted = she’s immediately replaced by a far more popular Democrat (basically any of them).

  • I Smell a Landslide

    06/07/2016 6:42:46 AM PDT · 95 of 113
    only1percent to Mariner

    We can’t take comfort in people voting against “Crooked Hillary.”

    There are two ways her scandals work out — no criminal charges, which exonerates her in the eyes of Democrats and independents, or criminal charges, in which case she is replaced by someone more popular and honest. Not for a SECOND will the trial lawyers, public employee unions and identity group lobbyists risk a 20-year majority on the Suprme Court on her ego, or Obama risk his legacy — Cuba, Iran, Obamacare, transgenders.

  • Theranos founder's net worth goes from $4.5 BILLION to nothing amid fraud claims

    06/01/2016 3:04:41 PM PDT · 24 of 30
    only1percent to CorporateStepsister

    If she had good lawyers, she sold it least $50 million of her stock, which should have netted her after-tax at least $35 million, at least half of which she moved offshore to be out of reach of any creditors.

  • 20 people you can bet on to be Donald Trump's vice president

    05/14/2016 11:50:21 AM PDT · 35 of 134
    only1percent to detective

    Not convinced of this thesis. Younger nominees have often gone on to good things — Dole, George HW Bush, Paul Ryan. Older nominees have been fine too: Jack Kemp, Dick Cheney. Palin and Quayle were objectively terrible choices and fared as badly as one would expect.

  • Small Businesses Have Big Job Openings, But Can’t Fill Them

    05/12/2016 5:21:17 AM PDT · 32 of 78
    only1percent to expat_panama

    I’m doing some business with a guy who owns a bunch of those distribution/warehouse complexes (with the semi-truck back-up bays) by the highway onramps.

    He can hire a basically unlimited number of $10/hour warehouse floor assistants. It’s 50 cents more an hour than fast food or Wal-Mart pays around him, and it lets dudes feel a lot more self-respect (hard-hats and steel toed shoes, not name tag and hair net, no having to deal with fat housewives screaming at them in the aisle or at the register).

    When he advertises his $100,000 a year jobs — general manager of a facility, head of IT for the company, head of marketing for the company — he’ll get hundreds of resumes from literally all around the world. Most of the resumes are cr*p, but he still usually has five very qualified people at least for every one spot.

    It’s in between that kills him. Support desk to work for that IT director, a secretary for that head of marketing, a shift supervisor for the floor workers who can actually read the day’s manifests and the Excel sheets that plan work flow. What kills him, specifically, is government money. Grossly overpaid pink and blue collar government jobs are impossible to compete with, and SSDI is a huge factor: it’s basically become an early retirement program (as in, mid-40s sometimes) for any blue-collar guy who can follow his lawyer’s script. He also tells me that they end up getting combined — the guys go out on SSDI and their wives are working as secretaries for the school district.

  • Malia Obama to attend Harvard in 2017 after a ‘gap year’

    05/01/2016 3:03:41 PM PDT · 59 of 114
    only1percent to Calm_Cool_and_Elected

    A lot of the brilliant ones who built the country went to Harvard, too.

    Over the years, I’ve interviewed scores of Harvard kids, and have had a dozen plus work for me, along with interviewing many hundreds of non-Harvard kids, and having scores of them work for me.

    Basically, a Harvard kid with a respectable GPA has a 90% chance of being usefully intelligent, and a 20% or so chance of being usefully brilliant. At a good but not super-selective school (say, UNC-CH or Rochester) for someone with a respectable GPA those odds are about 25% and 5%. At a more-or-less open admission school those odds are about 10% and (in my experience) 0%, but I allow that brilliant kids from undistinguished schools tend not to be the type who want to come to New York to work in finance, so I just haven’t seen them.

  • Only One of Six Air Force F-35s Could Actually Take Off During Testing

    04/29/2016 11:37:21 AM PDT · 24 of 41
    only1percent to CivilWarBrewing

    You can blame Obama for a lot things, but not the F-35. The JSF program dates back to the early 1990s and all of the key engineering and economic decisions were Clinton and early George W. Bush administration.

  • Trump massacred in delegate fights once more

    04/17/2016 2:27:09 PM PDT · 24 of 105
    only1percent to LNV

    Unless they vote to unbind themselves, then they vote for Cruz on the first ballot. There’s a reason Presidential candidates pay attention to delegate selection.

  • RNC member: Trump can win with 1,100 delegates

    04/13/2016 9:35:38 AM PDT · 128 of 146
    only1percent to nralife

    If Trump gets his polling with Clinton to even, sure. If the polls look like they do now? 1,100’s not the number, 1,237’s not number ... it’s more like 1,450, to allow for 200+ Cruz loyalists who will be pledged to Trump but will vote to unbind the first ballot.

  • GOP Elites' Delusional Plan for Cleveland

    04/11/2016 9:09:07 AM PDT · 15 of 29
    only1percent to ek_hornbeck
    It is very unlikely that delegates loyal to Trump and Cruz won't together add up to a majority of the delegates. No one other than Trump or Cruz will be eligible to be nominated unless one of THEM agrees to that. Would Trump drop out so that someone he likes could be nominated? Maybe. Would Cruz? Doesn't seem likely.
  • BREAKING: Cruz Camp STEALS St. Louis County Delegates After Trump Wins Initial Vote!

    04/09/2016 5:01:25 PM PDT · 97 of 428
    only1percent to proust

    You compare Cruz’s methods to LBJ’s as if that is a criticism. If Cruz is as effective as LBJ, he will be the most important conservative in the history of this nation since Alexander Hamilton

    LBJ was the President of the United States who (probably) achieved more of his agenda than any other President before or since. He wanted civil rights, got it, and no one’s laid a hand on it for 50 years. He wanted Medicare — ditto. He appointed judges who have created an unbreakable trend to judicial imposition of whatever the liberal stance of the day may be. He wanted the welfare state — got it, lasted 30 years, and has done another 20 with minor changes. He wanted the war in Vietnam, got it, and despite it’s supposed unpopularity managed to have the 1968 election be fought among three pro-war candidates (Nixon, Humphrey and Wallace). That Nixon would win and then choose to forfeit the war was something Johnson couldn’t do anything about.

  • Trump’s weak delegate operation could derail his nomination

    04/09/2016 11:16:31 AM PDT · 91 of 140
    only1percent to napscoordinator

    1273 delegates of whom 100 to 200 will vote for Cruz’s motion to unbind for the first ballot and then nominate Cruz or someone else?

  • Donald Trump’s terrible night in Colorado exemplifies his campaign’s Achilles’ heel

    04/09/2016 8:06:34 AM PDT · 151 of 173
    only1percent to LS

    You do realize that Cruz will have the vast majority of delegates from Pennsylvania even if Trump wins the primary vote by a huge margin, right? Most of the delegates are elected unpledged by district and its Cruz who has actually recruited candidates or win over the ones who are elected in their own recognizance.

  • Clinton: Prison time over email scandal a GOP 'fantasy'

    04/08/2016 10:45:30 AM PDT · 34 of 62
    only1percent to kevcol

    There’s no special prosecutor.

    Ordinary DOJ rules arguing against election-eve indictments apply AND political influence can apply.

    If there’s a smoking gun — something that absolutely demands an indictment and that would practically preclude Clinton’s nomination — the politically smart thing is to permit the indictment only after the California primary. Sanders will have been mathematically eliminated from a bound first ballot, and Clinton may have clinched it, before then and Clinton may get a big win in California accordingly. This will allow the DNC to unbind the Clinton delegates and put Biden in to scoop up her old delegates and superdelegates for the win.

  • Democrats Underestimate Cruz at Their Own Risk

    04/07/2016 3:42:50 AM PDT · 19 of 80
    only1percent to dp0622

    75% of the delegates in Pennsylvania are unprecedented and Cruz will have almost all of them regardless the primary result. This is about the scoreboard not minutes of possession.

  • Only Trump has a realistic path to a delegate majority.

    04/05/2016 11:48:08 PM PDT · 106 of 141
    only1percent to RitaOK
    This doesn't make a lot of sense. It's Cruz who has been electing his own loyalists to nominally Trump delegate seats. Has Trump "raided" even one Cruz delegate in like manner?

    Cruz is done. His so called “delegates” were raided hard.
  • Trump In Full Meltdown Mode As Ted Cruz Wins The Wisconsin Republican Primary

    04/05/2016 11:43:40 PM PDT · 34 of 84
    only1percent to JerseyDvl

    Cruz has a very realistic path to a majority: 90%+ of the RNC, elected unpledged, Rubio, and Kasich delegates will support him AND it looks like a meaningful share of Trump’s pledged delegates will actually be Cruz delegates, voting his way in any rules or credentials battles as well as for him when free from their pledge.

  • Cruz will not drop out after he is eliminated on April 26th.

    04/04/2016 2:57:47 PM PDT · 278 of 316
    only1percent to Mase

    This is very well said.

    I am not sure that denying Trump the nomination even with a big lead in delegates is the wrong move. Nothing he’s said or done has shown any willingness to get beyond where he’s at or speak to the people he hasn’t already converted.

    Are there Trump supporters who will stay home in November out of anger at Ted Cruz? Sure. But right now for every one of them there are two reliable Republicans who simply won’t vote, or will vote for Clinton, if Trump is the option. Being honest, every FReeper could probably list half a dozen of those #NeverTrumps among his or her own friends and family; I sure can, and some of those people are righter than Attila the Hun in ordinary circumstances.

  • Cruz will not drop out after he is eliminated on April 26th.

    04/04/2016 2:17:34 PM PDT · 275 of 316
    only1percent to Mifflin

    At this point it’s just silly to call Cruz “mathematically eliminated.”

    Here’s the equation:

    T = delegates pledged to Trump

    U = delegates pledged to no one or anyone other than Trump or Cruz, whom under the present rules can ONLY vote for Trump or Cruz because no other candidate can be placed in nomination, and whom at this point it can be expected that 90%+ will vote for Cruz under that scenario.

    Therefore under the current rules Cruz is reasonably argued to be mathematically eliminated only if and when T + U/10 = 1237. The polls suggest that’s not likely until the California primary, although certainly not impossible.

    Any change to the rules will tend to push mathematically elimination further out, because by permitting another candidate to be nominated, it increases the odds of a second, etc. round of balloting in which pledges are released and its anybody’s ball. (Of course, since Cruz delegates won’t support a rule change, the rule change will have to be driven by TRUMP delegates, most likely out of spite for Cruz, not by the GOPe.)

  • Trump would be least-popular major-party nominee in modern times

    03/31/2016 9:25:59 PM PDT · 157 of 169
    only1percent to Democratic-Republican

    Cruz could lose worse than Trump, that’s sure true. But Trump’s loss is a pure certainty unless Trump turns around his relative negatives. Supporting Trump without a clear argument how he becomes more popular — or Clinton more unpopular — is sheer folly.

  • Trump would be least-popular major-party nominee in modern times

    03/31/2016 6:26:59 AM PDT · 61 of 169
    only1percent to McGruff

    Ted Cruz is more popular when you sample everyone, not just Republican primary voters. Even among Republican primary voters, not-Trump is far more popular than Trump, but split its vote.

    The willingness of FReepers to ignore polls is very odd. Absent a few outliers, polls are very accurate. They are telling us as scientifically as possible that Trump would lose in a landslide to Hillary if the vote were today. That doesn’t mean that result is guaranteed for November, but it means that it will be the result absent a recipe for Trump to become more popular among people who right now seem to have a very dim view of him.

  • Maryland school district examines racial disparities in its gifted programs

    03/24/2016 7:12:59 AM PDT · 29 of 51
    only1percent to C19fan

    Socio-economically diverse school districts are never safe for successful families. Between the district’s invariably pearl-clutching administrators and school board members and the ministrations of aggressive civil rights lawyers, programs that benefit the children of educated, married parents are always 30 seconds from the garbage.

  • CRUZ on kindly back to Texas, Ted. 1237 is an unattainable number.

    03/17/2016 10:57:03 PM PDT · 205 of 219
    only1percent to Beautiful_Gracious_Skies

    In all likelihood it won’t go to a second ballot because Rule 40 keeps anyone besides Cruz or Trump from being placed in nomination. When there are only two candidates, one has to win a majority.

    If Trump has less than a majority of the delegates, the question is will the unpledged delegates move over to him (he wins), or split (he wins), or go overwhelmingly to Cruz (Cruz wins).

  • Some Senate Republicans Will Meet With Supreme Court Nominee

    03/17/2016 9:27:23 AM PDT · 34 of 48
    only1percent to BillyBoy

    Garland works for Obama because he’s fairly old, not a radical left winger (albeit certainly an orthodox liberal) and because (being white) his nomination is seen as good faith and not an effort to stir up minorities to vote for Democrats in November.

    I don’t think he gets through before the election, but he’d be a solid bet to be confirmed in the lame duck if Clinton is elected President or the Dmeocrats take the Senate majority, and 100% certain if both happens, because Clinton’s nominee for Majority Leader Chuck Shumer to push through in February will be a 45-year-old bombthrower of a lefty.

  • Congressional sources: Obama to nominate Merrick Garland

    03/16/2016 7:49:22 AM PDT · 48 of 55
    only1percent to pilgrim

    Garland is certainly a more defensible cloture and/or confirmation vote for Republican moderates than almost anybody else he could have nominated. Has a small chance of confirmation between now and November, and is virtually certain to be confirmed in the November-December lame duck session should Clinton be elected President or the Democrats take the Senate majority.

    Shows that Obama would rather be a three-Justice President (first since Reagan) than help Hillary Clinton be elected (which he would accomplish better by nominating a black or hispanic judge whom Clinton could claim the Republicans were racistly insulting by not confirming).

  • BLOOMBERG: I won't run for president

    03/08/2016 6:40:44 AM PST · 60 of 65
    only1percent to campaignPete R-CT

    The point of Bloomberg was to blackmail Democrats to support Clinton over Sanders, because the liberal finance, media and tech establishment is scared that Sanders won’t just go after other people’s money, but maybe come after their’s, too.

    Now that Clinton has demonstrated that she holds enough of the minority and older women vote to get the nomination, Bloomberg’s campaign no longer has a purpose.

  • (Vanity) Nightmare Supreme Court Scenario

    03/08/2016 3:40:05 AM PST · 18 of 27
    only1percent to ConservativeMan55

    Absolutist possible. Each new Senate adopts its own rules. The new Senate could eliminate filibuster for SCOTUS nominees and jam through confirmation.

  • Horowitz: 8 Key Observations from Cruz's Super Saturday Win

    03/06/2016 3:32:44 PM PST · 59 of 89
    only1percent to GodGunsGuts
    Rule 40 is an anti-brokered convention rule. It means (in practice) that only the #1 or #2 candidate out of the primaries and caucuses can be the nominee. This year, it's basically the anti-Mitt Romney / Paul Ryan rule, because it keeps them from being nominated by a few unpledged delegates on the first ballot and then winning on the second ballot when the pledged delegates are free to vote how they want.
  • Horowitz: 8 Key Observations from Cruz's Super Saturday Win

    03/06/2016 3:29:34 PM PST · 55 of 89
    only1percent to GodGunsGuts

    It is absurd to say that Cruz is or has become or may become a creature of the GOPe. He has defied them every day of the last 5 years (since he launched his Senatorial campaign). The fact that the GOPe so fears Trump that they may choose to fall in line behind Cruz doesn’t mean Cruz sold out, it means the GOPe knows that they’re beat. Now obviously Trump did a lot of the beating, but Cruz certainly held his own in the fight.

    It was ALWAYS the case that the GOPe was likely to fall in line behind a non-GOPe candidate, because that’s what the two party system means, and it was ALWAYS the case that the GOPe refusing to do so would guarantee a Democratic President. The GOPe can’t win without outsider conservatives, but outsider conservatives can’t win without the GOPe, either. Virginia, Florida, and Ohio don’t come back to the Republicans in November unless everyone is pushing 100% for it.

  • This is how the suburbs die

    03/01/2016 11:16:37 AM PST · 33 of 84
    only1percent to puppypusher

    Yup. Connecticut kicked GE out — the personal income tax increases, and the noise about dramatic corporate tax changes (essentially taxing worldwide income for CT-headquartered companies), and, implicitly, the threat of future tax increases on top of these to fund CT’s huge public employee pension deficits.

    Putting the new headquarters in South Boston made a lot of sense. It’s a top tier metro for educated population with fast flight connections to Europe and Asia (Europe is far north and Asia is effectively north too because of polar routes). South Boston is also a great resource: I can’t think of any city with a reservoir of developable land so close to the existing downtown corporate infrastruture and the international airport. It wouldn’t surprise me if Arlington VA was a close second: big metro, close to Dulles and Reagan National, developable land, reasonably solvent state.

    Being even closer to the exec’s summer places on the Cape, Vineyard and Nantucket, Westerly and Newport, and equidistant to their places in the Green Mountains or Berkshires probably didn’t hurt either.

  • Dump Hillary, and Dump Her Fast: The Democratic Establishment is on a Suicide Mission...

    03/01/2016 8:04:12 AM PST · 50 of 57
    only1percent to Biggirl

    He doesn’t go third party unless Hillary decides to run against Trump from the “right” as well as the left — i.e., hooking up with the John McCain and Lindsay Graham. At that point, Bernie starts to call BS on Hillary and becomes open to a third-party run because he and his supporters can legitimately see it not as a Nader-style spoiler, but as a real attempt to create a progressive option.

  • Donald Trump Just Publicly Embraced the WORST Part of Obamacare [VIDEO] [Ind. Mandate]

    02/19/2016 7:08:38 PM PST · 259 of 266
    only1percent to SoConPubbie

    The individual mandate is far from the worst thing about Obamacare. Once you’ve decided to make pre-existing conditions not excludable from health insurance, you MUST have an individual mandate or the moral hazard issues become unmanageable. In other words, the individual mandate was a shining moment of rationality in the Obamacare construct.

    And even without Obamacare, if we’re not going to turn people away from the emergency room (which is the legal status quo going on 30 years) than we get that moral hazard without even having a no-pre-existing-condition exclusion on insurance.

  • Poll: Clinton, Sanders in a dead heat for Nevada [Trump 45 Rubio 19]

    02/17/2016 8:33:41 AM PST · 64 of 83
    only1percent to laplata

    Super-delegates can change their commitment up until the time they vote. The NH super-delegates can and will switch their vote to Bernie if he emerges the leader in elected delegates ... which is exactly what happened in 2008. Bernie’s momentum around being a representative of the 99% vs. the 1% can be nearly as powerful as Obama momentum around being the first black President.

  • Poll: Clinton, Sanders in a dead heat for Nevada [Trump 45 Rubio 19]

    02/17/2016 7:09:54 AM PST · 44 of 83
    only1percent to laplata

    That will not happen. Superdelegates and the Democratic establishment won’t “steal” the nomination from Bernie — that just guarantees a left-wing third party campaign. They’ll allow him to be nominated if he wins the majority of the elected delegates.

    What they WILL do is defect in large numbers to Bloomberg, and THAT’s a powerful play. Bloomberg vs. Trump and Sanders takes a huge swath of the GOPe and moderate Republican voters from Trump, will have the unanimous support of corporate America, will get a lot of Democratic establishment support, and is perfectly palatable to socially liberal Democrats who are taxpayers or worried about their 401ks.

    Basically, the math is kind of like this for different match-ups:

    Trump 45% vs. Clinton 40% vs. Sanders (I) 15%. Moderate voters split well to Trump because Clinton unappealing to them.

    Trump 53% vs. Sanders (D) 47%. Corporate America quietly backs Trump.

    Bloomberg (I) 42% vs. Trump 35% vs. Sanders (D) 23%. Trump wins only hard-core conservative voters; Sanders only wins white liberals as black voters are steered to Bloomberg by their leadership.

  • Internal poll for Bush PAC shows much tighter SC race: Trump 26, Cruz 24, Jeb 12...

    02/15/2016 5:41:13 AM PST · 112 of 118
    only1percent to lquist1

    Remember that Right to Rise is only a Bush SuperPAC as long as Bush is running. And Bush very well could be forced out of the race with Right to Rise still having ten(s) of millions of cash on balance sheet.

    When the Right to Rise machers try to figure out what to do, there’s a real chance that supporting Cruz will be the outcome. Rubio is seen as a disloyal, impatient protege of Jeb’s, while Trump of course built his entire campaign in 2015 by disemboweling Bush.

  • Saudi Arabia Embarks On Massive Military Drill With 2,500 Warplanes And 20,000 Tanks

    02/15/2016 5:35:04 AM PST · 13 of 148
    only1percent to Little Ray

    20,000 tanks is something like 50-100 armored divisions, an order of magnitude more than the entire world has. Maybe 20,000 personnel assigned to armored or cavalry units, implying 200-500 tanks?

  • Final ARG NH Tracking Poll (Trump 33, Kasich 17, Rubio 14, Cruz 10, Jeb 9)

    02/09/2016 4:29:26 AM PST · 92 of 108
    only1percent to usafa92

    The only real threat of a moderate nominee is for Rubio to mop up Bush, Kasich and Christie early. If 2, 3, or 4 of them are in play than essentially every state will be a plurality for Trump or Cruz. That creates huge momentum and soon will also provide all the delegates in the winner-takes-all state.

    The math is hugely in Trump’s favor vs Cruz. He’ll hold his own versus Cruz in Republican and swing states and will easily win Democratic-leaning states (which have a modest delegate penalty, but still provide a huge amount of delegates).

  • Housing, jobs in high-tax Connecticut could take hit in wake of GE move

    02/06/2016 6:49:19 AM PST · 29 of 38
    only1percent to The Antiyuppie

    Personal income taxes are much higher in CT than MA. Higher than NY (but not NYC).

    Property tax are about the same.

    Corporate tax rates are similar BUT in CT they are moving to a simply insane global tax regime that means any CT-headquarters company with out of state operations subject a lower total (local plus national) tax rate will be taxed by CT on the difference. That alone forces any multi-national not to retain HQ there.

    As for why Boston vs Atlanta or Dallas. Combination of practicality (want the prestige of a global city with world class university, shorter flights to Europe and equal time flights to Asia thanks to polar routes), self-serving execs wanting to stay close to their vacation homes, and I’m sure a desire not to seem to be putting a finger in the eye of the liberal elite that a big Red State move, given GE believes will more likely than not continue to own the White House and everyone believes will continue to run the media and permanent policy establishment.