Posts by parksstp

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  • California Chrome sustains gash to foot

    06/08/2014 3:38:09 PM PDT · 22 of 32
    parksstp to Morgana

    Someone who is better at photoshopping than I am, can you help me out?

    I would like to create a picture of people appearing to lift California Chrome in the air with his visible injury and carry him off, to parody and create the best “Lebroning” photo yet, but can’t find anything to use.

  • GOP firmís poll: McConnell in statistical tie with Democrat in Kentucky, leads Bevin by 42

    02/14/2014 3:12:18 PM PST · 39 of 54
    parksstp to SeekAndFind

    The Tea Party needs more of a National, Organized structure and this whole mess proves why.

    McConnell has caved with Boehner over and over again. Every time he did, people here were like “we will defeat you and teach you a lesson for turning your back on conservatives”. Then the primaries come, no serious challenge is made, he gets the nod and we either get stuck with the RINO again or he gets replaced by a liberal or liberal-disguised as some moderate.

    Folks, how many conservatives make up this country. At least 100,000,000?

    Why is it that when work must be done and candidates must be vetted, nobody ever wants to do the hard work? Some unknown enters the ring and people just coalesce around them, until something shows things may not be right. Bevins supported TARP? Really, now, we’re going to go replace the Amensty-Caving-Establishment RINO leader and trust a guy that supported TARP? Are you kidding me? This is the best KY can do? A state that is red every General Election? Really?

    Or like in AR where Cotton is running for Senate. He caved on the debt vote, but now AR voters are going to reward him by sending him to the RINO Senate? Really, how do you think he’s going to vote on debt ceilings in the future?

    Ted Cruz is a prime example of getting an unknown Elected on a limited budget. It requires charisma, integrity, and a connection to voters that establishes Trust. The easy way out of doing the hard work is for people to say “Oh I don’t have the money, it’s too expensive”. A political candidate that can articulate their message on point that reasonates with the voters will trump money any day.

    The problem is this vetting should have started long ago. Like right after the 2012 Election. Otherwise, who are we replacing the RINOs with? More RINOs. Or worse, a candidate ill-equipped at handling the media (IN, DE, MO, etc) and communicating their message to the voters effectively?

    No more RINOs and no more dark horse candidates who fail at charisma and getting their message across effectively and lack the conservative track record to instill some kind of trust.

    I wish Rush Limbaugh or Mark Levin would take a huge chunk of money, donate it to a place like Hillsdale for the Establishment of the Ronald Wilson Reagan School of Political Communication, which could serve as a training ground for how to train conservatives to run for office, articulate message, and deal with the media.

  • Conservatives outnumber liberals in 47 states (Sorry to say but BS)

    01/31/2014 11:46:28 AM PST · 5 of 21
    parksstp to C19fan

    This is why these polls about conservatives making up a plurality in the US is suspect.

    Usually, we get told 40% identify as conservative and 25% as liberal and make a big deal of that.

    Why?

    It’s well document that conservatives are more open of their beliefs and willing to defend them. Liberals, meanwhile, tend to avoid that label and hide out under the “moderate” label.

    “Moderates” in that poll make up 35%. How much of those “moderates” do you think share conservative values? Probably not much because if they were conservative they wouldn’t have an issue with the label in the first place. Add these together and you get a 55-45 or 54-46 split which just so happens to match the results of 2012 (not that Romney was conservative, but trying to show how Obama can get over 50% if just a 25% of the population identifies as liberal.

    The country tilts left thanks to the media and (lack of) education system. Show all the polls people want about Obama being unpopular or his policies. It doesn’t matter. If the election were tomorrow, he’d get re-elected. The dangerous, ill-informed society that the Founding Fathers feared has come to fruition.

  • Any Freeper Lawyers deal with Criminal Law/Constitutional Issues?

    01/17/2014 12:57:07 PM PST · 16 of 21
    parksstp to Dan(9698); CivilWarBrewing

    These were not feminists, on the contrary.

    This is more along the lines of lack of social interaction-social awkwardness type of thing and not knowing how to properly deal in social settings or realizing the effects your actions have on others. Couple that with designed lying techniques to cover up these weaknesses and that’s what you have with these two.

  • Any Freeper Lawyers deal with Criminal Law/Constitutional Issues?

    01/17/2014 12:50:50 PM PST · 15 of 21
    parksstp to frog in a pot

    Thanks, this was already done.

    I sent all of that information to an Attorney in DE that I was referred to from here in FL.

    There was supposed to be an initial consultation. Prior to that I sent the information you stated. It was clear when I talked with her that she reviewed none of it and had no clue as to the people involved, facts, etc. I was charged $250 for 10 minutes of what nothing helped.

    Our request was to see if based on reviewing the facts and the situation if she could talk to the remaining complainant to get it dropped. After all, negotiation, mediation, arbitration, I thought this is what Attorneys get paid to do. She made it seem like I was asking her to Blackmail the complainant into dropping the complaint which was not true.
    The Attoney said she could get in trouble for “intimidation”. I have never heard anything like that of the sort. Additionally, the Attorney told me that even if I hired her, she would be unable to see the information behind the warrant issued until I turned myself in. Seriously, nobody can see the information supporting a warrant in Delaware? There is something wrong with this process.

  • Any Freeper Lawyers deal with Criminal Law/Constitutional Issues?

    01/17/2014 12:44:16 PM PST · 14 of 21
    parksstp to Darren McCarty

    The Blog was already taken down once the agreement of the meeting in November was made. As previously stated, there is NOTHING in there that states threats of any kind. The only thing it lists is the documented account/transcripts/correspondences, etc. Additionally, NO private information was ever published on the Blog. All information that was listed referred back to another public website and was appropriately cited.

    Define “good”

  • Any Freeper Lawyers deal with Criminal Law/Constitutional Issues?

    01/17/2014 10:14:19 AM PST · 1 of 21
    parksstp
    Help
  • Led Zeppelin-Stairway to Heaven

    12/22/2013 9:31:02 PM PST · 54 of 111
    parksstp to Las Vegas Ron

    Why is this song considered the greatest in Rock Music History on all the Memorial/Labor Day Countdowns?

    I think Iron Horses’ Bluegrass version is better:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csBjdP8spXs

    Never was really a LZ fan, prefer the Prog Rock genre more.

    But one thing I want to know. The Immigration Song, was this ripped off from the Get Smart theme or not?

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 9:09:35 PM PST · 112 of 187
    parksstp to volunbeer

    yeah,

    Ironic those 12% that left Winston off had Manziel and McCarron on their ballot.

    Manziel sold his autographs and joked about getting away with it because since he was paid in cash, there was no paper trail.

    As for McCarron, he apparentally cheated on Katherine Webb with another model. And if you find the photos taken with his mom, well then....

    http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2013/06/11/break-time-katherine-webb-boyfriend-reportedly-cheated-with-model/

    So if you’re going to hold Winston to a moral standard, these 2 should be as well.

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 8:09:03 PM PST · 71 of 187
    parksstp to parksstp; Always A Marine

    Oh,

    and here’s one other interesting tidbit. Remember all the height deviations the victim gave. First 5”7-5”9? Well guess what height Jamal Roberts is? That’s right, she gave the physical description of him to police the night at the hospital and later that day.

    http://www.kentstatesports.com/roster.aspx?path=football&rp_id=5320

    Winston is 6”5.She knew what she was doing when she tried to throw police off.

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 8:04:37 PM PST · 69 of 187
    parksstp to yarddog

    No, she was 18, just about to turn 19.

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 8:03:58 PM PST · 68 of 187
    parksstp to Theoria

    If it was done without the consent of the individuals then yes. According to the report, she told him to get out, so he did.

    However, given that its clear the accuser had been drinking and she is only 19, and the alcohol was probably still on her breath when she was interviewed by police and at the hospital, what about charging her and her friends with that?

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 7:44:40 PM PST · 52 of 187
    parksstp to Alberta's Child

    Winston is a 2-sport Star.

    Charlie Ward had a very good career in the NBA. I think he did okay.

    Winston has stated he would like to be the next Bo Jackson/Deon Sanders and play both NFL and MLB.

    If he’s smart he’ll go the MLB route. Longer career, stay healthier.

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 7:40:45 PM PST · 47 of 187
    parksstp to volunbeer

    the Heisman Trophy has a Moral Requirement? that’s news to me.

    your assessment of society today I would say is accurate. I mean, look at who we have in the WH.

    This is what goes on in College, though, thanks to the liberal education system. While you may be shocked at Winston and Casher’s activities, sadly, this is not out of the norm. This is accepted behavior. If you want to change that, you have to change the education system.

    As for his GF, she hasn’t said much, but she was with him at the ceremony. From some of her comments in the past, she appears to be the one who wears the pants in that relationship. I suspect if Winston’s allowed to get his sidepieces, she probably is free to as well. Welcome to how Relationships in the 21st Century operate. It’s sad, but it is what it is.

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 7:29:29 PM PST · 38 of 187
    parksstp to Dave346

    did you read the report?

    The only “clear” injuries the victim had was bruising that began to appear on her elbows and knees while she was at the hospital. This corraborates the story that she was in a position giving oral sex to Winston.

    There was no head trauma as she described and the nurse only recorded headache pain, which if she was drinking and witnesses said she wasn’t a big drinker could easily be a hangover.

    There were no signs of forced entry or tearing. The only thing that is listed is what the alleged victim reported, but the nurse had nothing to back it up.

    As for the police cover-up, what coverup? They did their job if you read the report. She gave them multiple stories. She actually wasn’t the person who called the police to begin with.

    Willie Meggs is a hardnose against FSU athletes who has done ZERO favors for any FSU athletes. If you think he’s going to go down for protecting an athlete, you don’t know the man. He’s prosecuted with far less. One guy he charged with assault even after they had passed 3 polygraphs (they were eventually acquitted). If the evidence had been there, he would have charged Winston, but it was clear the woman was providing misleading information. Kessler’s interview was particularly damning.

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 6:58:51 PM PST · 21 of 187
    parksstp to Veggie Todd

    passed judgement on him without reading the report?

    I went through all 86 pages and the additional 38 pages of released information from the investigation, and anybody that goes through it will conclude the girl is clearly lying.

    First, she DID say she was hit on the head, but no evidence of it. She said she had been intoxicated, but blood alcohol levels show they were nowhere near blackout levels, neither was their any presence of drugs in her urine.

    Second, she told people she took a shot from a stranger, but the only person witnesses saw her take drinks from was Marcus Jordan

    Third, the Text “Meet me outside” which she an Monique Kessler say they saw on the victim’s phone never existed. Verizon’s phone records were subpeonaed and determined that the message was never on the victim’s phone.

    Fourth, Kessler was adamant victim stay around while she go to bathroom for safety, but later when victim supposedly got the “meet me outside” text and shows it to Kessler asking if she should go, Kessler says if she wants to? Yeah, right.

    Fifth, the injuries the victim had on her knees and elbow are consistent with the “oral” activities described by Casher and Darby, although the victim says no oral activities took place.

    Sixth, the accuser has all sorts of memories for detailed specifics, such a colored sheets, scooters, cab, etc, but when she changes her story over and over again from “hit on the head” to “blacking out” to “taking a shot -drugged” police were chasing ghosts.

    Seventh, the ambulance chaser attorney is claiming that “anyone can pee in a cup” suggesting that the accuser’s blood and urine were switched which is why the “date rape” drug wasn’t present. Sure. Or the accuser was just lying.

    Eigth, after getting dropped off, accuser gets texts messages telling her they’ve got answers to the Spa-2 Exam, which victim replies immediately to pleease send them. This happened even before she got back to her dorm, but was supposedly blacking out.

    Ninth, accuser’s boyfriend, Jamal Roberts, who also happens to be a football player at Kent State, at some point, visited the accuser in Tallahassee that same week. Either that, or the accuser doesn’t wash her clothes very well as his DNA was still on her shorts. It seemed clear she wouldn’t want people to find out where she had been.

    Tenth, although she deleted it, Google Cache and her Twitter handle clearly show she followed the hashtag #FSUCleatChaser. She even went to games as most recently as the Miami game. Sure, that’s normal to go to the game and cheer the guy you accused of rape on? Yeah.

    Elventh, Patricia Carroll, the ambulance chaser planted a story on the accuser to tell her friend Monique Kessler that they had shared clothes (this is before it became clear that the DNA on the shorts was Jamal Roberts). When asked by police during her interview, Kessler said she could not recall them sharing clothes, let alone the fact that Kessler is 5”8 and the accuser is 5”5 so the sharing of shorts would not be realistic.

    I could go on and on, but these were the details in the report that the mainstream sports media failed to report. These issues are precisely the reason why Willie Meggs didn’t charge Winston and why there will be no Civil Suit by the ambulance chaser against TPD or Winston because the facts fall apart quickly.

    There is evidence that one of two things happened: (1) She thought she was going to be more than a side piece and since Winston had a GF also, turned out that wasn’t the case and regretted the action. (2) Chris Casher says he tried to video the girl and Winston. Perhaps the girl thought he had actually recorded something and she was afraid it would get out on the internet. Or she is just plain lying trying to earn a buck as a cleatchaser.

    I suggest everyone read the report and released interviews for themselves. Once you realize the lamestream media is doing what they do best (withholding reporting facts), you’ll realize Winston was innocent and the act was consensual.

  • Florida State QB Jameis Winston wins Heisman Trophy

    12/14/2013 6:33:20 PM PST · 1 of 187
    parksstp
    Only 5th Highest total ever. Could have been 1st had it not been for the psychopath and ambulance-chasing attorney trying to derail him.

    Well done Jameis! Now on to the BCS Championship game for some Tiger stew.

  • 2013-14 Bowl Projections

    12/08/2013 10:18:46 PM PST · 22 of 50
    parksstp to Perdogg

    So with FSU back in the National Prominence and the Winston issue laid to rest, how long before we have to read an article on by some loser liberal journalist on how offensive the “Seminole” mascot is?

    FSU is going to steamroll the Tigers, or the War Eagle, or whatever mascot the people from the barn decide to bring with them.

  • Jameis Winston deserves benefit of doubt in sexual assault case until proven otherwise

    11/14/2013 6:34:04 PM PST · 38 of 40
    parksstp to spel_grammer_an_punct_polise

    Cannot release my sources,

    but from what I’m being told:

    “Four players including JW went to a party, one of the players assaulted a girl - (placing his hands on her inappropriately), JW saw what happened and the players including JW left the party. JW is and was a witness to the whole incident which is supposedly why his name came up in the report, not as the perpetrator.”

    There is speculation that the individual involved that was trying to “hook” up with the girl did not want her to know their real name and dropped Winston’s name, which explains the discrepancy in the suspect description of the police report.

    Appears that Winston is a witness to something and this is what the other 2 are collaborating. It’s unclear if any of the other 3 names, including the name of the real suspect will be released.

    This is supposedly going to come out in the next few days.

    Also supposedly, the girl is being represented by her aunt.

  • Jameis Winston deserves benefit of doubt in sexual assault case until proven otherwise

    11/14/2013 10:56:54 AM PST · 1 of 40
    parksstp
    This is about the only article I found with any attempts to report this incident fairly. The whole incident smells, from the timing of it, how long it took, lack of evidence, description, who was ever contacted, etc.

    The media is doing a hit-job on this guy's character. Most of the reporting has been "guilty" until proven innocent.

    Looks like they trying to make this Duke Lacrosse II.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 6:15:57 PM PST · 1,293 of 2,100
    parksstp to GeronL

    84.57% IN

    808,035 46.72% (R)
    799,205 46.21% (D)

    Still about 15,000 votes McCauliffe will pick up on Ken in Fairfax County. The lead is not going to hold.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 6:06:19 PM PST · 1,204 of 2,100
    parksstp to Kolath

    79.65% IN

    766,580 46.87% (R)
    751,413 45.95% (D)

    Tightening still, not sure if he will hold it. Depends on where the real vote totals are outstanding.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 5:56:35 PM PST · 1,099 of 2,100
    parksstp to sheikdetailfeather

    74.10% IN

    718,015 47.35% (R)
    688,743 45.42% (D)

    Wow, the 30,000 gap is still there. Verrry Interesting, but Fairfax still coming in very slowly.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 5:51:17 PM PST · 1,043 of 2,100
    parksstp to Hoodat

    Same story, turnout is slightly higher, Ken is doing worse by about 5-6% of McDonnell and in the Kilgore range, but McCauliffe is not getting any better numbers than Deeds and nowhere near Kaine.

    This Sarvis effect is really interesting. Seems to be hurting TM in the red areas.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 5:48:14 PM PST · 1,017 of 2,100
    parksstp to parksstp

    67.89% IN

    649,924 47.52% (R)
    618,513 45.22% (D)

    I suspect this is the area where the vote would start to turn, it appears that way.

    Fairfax County is on its way to 250,000 votes. If that holds.

    Ken gets about 92,000 McCauliffe gets 143,000, a difference of 51,000 votes. 19,000 of that lead is already accounted for in the totals. It appears he can close the gap with Fairfax alone, and now the rest of the state is a wash, but if any other liberal stronghold is out, it’s over.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 5:43:36 PM PST · 982 of 2,100
    parksstp to Red in Blue PA

    IF Ken pulls this out

    Goochland County may tell why this is close.

    Turnout was slightly higher. Ken got 14% less than McDonnell (70 vrs 56 which was the same as Kilgore). McCauliffe, however, got only 33%, not the 43% Kaine got. This is one place the “Sarvis” factor seems to have hurt McCauliffe even though Cucinelli’s vote numbers/percentages are down. Interesting.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 5:33:08 PM PST · 886 of 2,100
    parksstp to mrsmith

    61.16% in

    586,884 48.03% (R)
    545,702 44.66% (D)

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 5:19:44 PM PST · 801 of 2,100
    parksstp to Viennacon

    He’s not overperforming. In many of the preliminary counties, he is underperforming, but McCauliffe is not picking up a significant number of voters other than people that may not normally vote in off-year elections.

    VA Beach looks bad 27,000-24,000, the GOP should be cleaning up here.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 5:12:01 PM PST · 754 of 2,100
    parksstp to mrs9x

    Something is up, when I click on the precint page, it might say all have reported for that area, then still have zero-ed areas out.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 5:04:26 PM PST · 725 of 2,100
    parksstp to Sarah Barracuda

    I predict Ken will continue to lead until we get to 67% of the vote in, then that last 3rd will take over in the Urban areas that always report last.

    State is doing an awful job reporting numbers. Some don’t make sense.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 4:53:28 PM PST · 661 of 2,100
    parksstp to 11th_VA

    CHESTERFIELD COUNTY NUMBERS (UPDATED)

    73/74 TOTAL 84,597 (TURN-OUT SLIGHT DOWN)

    KEN: 41,971
    TERRY: 34,314
    SARVIS: 8,312

    Analysis: Ken underperformed from 2009 when he and McDonnell got nearly 58,000 votes. With this vote total, McCauliffe could have actually won the county, but did not do much better than Deeds.

    This is looking like a 49-45-6 split Virginia-wide for (D).

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 4:43:24 PM PST · 600 of 2,100
    parksstp to parksstp

    City of Norton.

    I predicted 950 Votes. There were only 864. I said Ken would get 653, he got only 481. I said McCauliffe would get 297, he got 346. Ken underperformed.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 4:39:43 PM PST · 585 of 2,100
    parksstp to Blue Turtle

    Okay, State website can’t be updating correctly

    73/74 precints reporting in Chesterfield County and only a total of 48,339 votes? This can’t be right. That total should be around 90,000 total. What gives?

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 4:33:44 PM PST · 544 of 2,100
    parksstp to Kenny

    Is there another site other that the State one reporting numbers? It is slowing and refresh does nothing.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 4:29:32 PM PST · 522 of 2,100
    parksstp to txhurl

    The state website is starting to slow.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 4:20:46 PM PST · 464 of 2,100
    parksstp to tcrlaf

    20% AA?

    Really?

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 4:07:55 PM PST · 397 of 2,100
    parksstp to relee

    I seen so many posts on percentages without numbers. When the Reg voters is provided I can compare it to previous turnout for myself, but when they give just a %, it can be very misleading.

    I still see a lower turnout overall.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 4:04:33 PM PST · 377 of 2,100
    parksstp to relee

    41% of what?

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 3:54:12 PM PST · 341 of 2,100
    parksstp to rabidralph
  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 3:49:28 PM PST · 328 of 2,100
    parksstp to tcrlaf

    How many precints?

    If this is half, then the drop-off I predicted is accurate, around 250-260,000 votes. Looks like Ken will have about 95,000 or 37% there. If that holds, I do not see how the margin is made up, but it also shows McCauliffe’s numbers won’t be much higher than Deeds, meaning this was GOP voters either not voting or voting for another candidate.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 3:45:45 PM PST · 316 of 2,100
    parksstp to tcrlaf
    9,888-10,042 was the range for 2005/09, so Charlottesville is slightly off last turnout numbers. "NBC29 ‏@NBC29 2m Charlottesville voter turnout as of 4 PM: 8,837 or 27%"
  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 2:35:10 PM PST · 176 of 2,100
    parksstp to tcrlaf

    Another area to keep a close eye on is Emporia. This shows the difference between who votes when and who doesn’t. Because of the strong AA population, it is heavily Dem in the General Elections, but ironically, the GOP has carried it in the last 3 Governors races (even Kilgore).

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 2:27:30 PM PST · 169 of 2,100
    parksstp to tcrlaf

    Without numbers, these tweets are all hearsay. Sounds like a Twitter propaganda war.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 2:25:14 PM PST · 164 of 2,100
    parksstp to parksstp

    Also those of you with % turnouts for certain areas, if they give the hard numbers can you post those too?

    If you want to compare if the area is on par, at, or below turnout rates from the 05 and 09 Elections, see the following spreadsheet, Columns (G) and (Q)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak29h7eIOT3AdEQxTmFmd2FMakZwRzZBVkNIWkt6MWc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

    In sounds from initial reports that turnout is down in most areas, but there is still 90 minutes or so to go and people should be getting off work might just be voting.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 2:19:32 PM PST · 160 of 2,100
    parksstp to tcrlaf

    10,000-10,900 would be normal for Botetort based on the last 2 Governor elections, so it is still down.

    Roanoke County’s turnout has been close to 31,000 votes that last 2 Governor races, so it is still down.

    Roanoke City 23.56% is about 14,500. Normal Turnout is around 20-22,000 for the last 2 Governor’s races, so it is still down.

    Still time to catch up before polls come, people getting off work.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 2:11:27 PM PST · 148 of 2,100
    parksstp to tcrlaf

    Dem turnout is not “off”. The demographics that come in the General Elections do not tend to vote in the off-years.

    The “off” turnout is in regards to the GOP turnout that came out for McDonnell in 2009. In my spreadsheet, I also included the votes Cucinelli received in his race for AG. After the results come in we will need to analyze the votes he got in 09 compared to now. That, not the lib votes, dead people voting, etc, will be the determining factor in whether he wins or loses tonight.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 12:50:47 PM PST · 74 of 2,100
    parksstp to cripplecreek

    This is ridiculous. All I try to do is find a logical explanation for the numbers being reported. Many times in the past I, too, have disregarded polling and other news outlets calling BS, only to realize they were accurate when the final results came in. So I made it a quest to find out where these votes came from, county by county. I did one for Ohio awhile back.

    Here is the Virginia Talking Points Excel Spreadsheet

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak29h7eIOT3AdEQxTmFmd2FMakZwRzZBVkNIWkt6MWc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

    It has all the data in VA General & Gov Elections going back to 2004 and is arranged based on Population of the 134 Independent City and County reporting ares.

    Columns AE-AI highlighted in Yellow are the prediction columns for today. To the right of that, in Columns AJ-AS, I record the total number of votes in each area for 2004/08/12 and 05/09 repectively, and the number of votes the Republican candidate received in 04/08/12 and 05/09 respectively.

    I look at the % of the vote Kilgore/McDonnell got to Bush/McCain, look at Romney’s numbers and try to base a percentage on that. In addition I look at the county voter population trends and whether it has increased or decreased, compare to current pollings and try to determine a projected turnout. If I’m really unsure, I’ll look at the Demographics.

    I started from the bottom and worked my way up, but only made it through the first 20 or so municipalities.

    I’m not here to influence anyone. I’m here to report, and for those watching the Election returns, to give a target number base for those interested. If Cuccinelli beats these numbers, that’s good. If not, then that’s not good.

    For VA FReepers Voters, find your county or independent city on the list and if you want, try to make an accurate guess of where the numbers will be.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 11:14:25 AM PST · 25 of 2,100
    parksstp to NormsRevenge

    But the stakes are high today for VA, and particularly the Tea Party.

    Christie wins a blowout in NJ. If Cuccinelli goes down, the GOP-e will be all over it claiming the Tea Party cost them the election with the shutdown, etc, etc, and the state GOP in VA will rewrite the rules to ensure an EW Jackson never happens again.

    They will point to today’s results as proof of “centralizing” and “appealing to moderates” as essential.

    Cucinelli stepped in it when he dissed Cruz at a time he should have associated himself with him, but that’s what you get for listening to consultants. The problem, though, is that isn’t the narrative that’s going to be reported, it’s going to be how the “Tea Part hijacked the Lt Gov race in VA, caused the shutdown, and led to defeat of the VA Gov race, while the RINO in NJ wins in a landslide”. The stories are already on the printing press.

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 10:41:56 AM PST · 13 of 2,100
    parksstp to ScottinVA

    Ah, people are going to start throwing county names in there and it’s going to make me want to fill in the rest of the spreadsheet. Takes too long, I don’t think I can finish by the end of the day.

    As for Gloucester, just did a quick look. Yes, even with lower turnout, Ken projected to do well there, not sure how many votes Sarvis will take to cut into his target numbers:

    Gloucester Total: 10,774 Ken (7,039) Terry (3,735)

  • Virginia Governor Election Day LIVE Thread

    11/05/2013 10:30:53 AM PST · 5 of 2,100
    parksstp to parksstp

    Also,

    Based on Polling data, it looks to be (D) and (R) turnout at 35% +/- 1% with Indies pulling 30%

    Looks like Females will be 54% to 46% for Males. Normal is 53-47 or 52-48.

    AA Turnout projected at 15%, could reach 16%. Whites will be 76-77%, with other (Asian, Latino, etc) reaching 9%