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Posts by Redmen4ever

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  • Anti-Trump thugs shout 'Viva Mexico' while burning American flag

    05/25/2016 8:54:07 AM PDT · 80 of 136
    Redmen4ever to McGruff

    You might just be a Democrat …

    if you riot and commit vandalism and assault people because Trump says you’re not the best people

  • Christianity Is Not Private But A Bakery Is

    05/25/2016 8:54:07 AM PDT · 8 of 14
    Redmen4ever to SoFloFreeper

    You just may be a Democrat if …

    If you think you can boycott North Carolina, but bakers cannot boycott you.

  • Kurdish president calls for statehood, new Middle Eastern order

    05/23/2016 4:48:13 PM PDT · 10 of 30
    Redmen4ever to Eleutheria5

    The U.S. Senate did not approve the Treaty of Versailles, the League of Nations or the partition of the Ottoman Empire.

    According to the principles expressed in the U.S. Declaration of Independence and the U.N. Universal Declaration of Human Rights, government is to be based on the consent of the governed. Practical considerations limit the application of the principle of consent of the government. But, an identifiable people in an identifiable place would seem to qualify, especially in the face of a failure of the established government to safeguard to those people their peace and human rights.

    The U.S. should be willing to consider the formation of a democratic Kurdish Republic spanning the northern tier of present day Iraq and Syria. As for Sunni-eastern Syria and Sunni-western Iraq, a new democratic Sunni Arab Republic might be recognized if the Sunni Arabs could get their act together and, with our support in terms of air power and such, kick the sh*t out of ISIS. But, they, not us, have to do the job.

    Syria and Iraq have failed to defend the people of those places. In the case of Iraq, the corrupt Shia have betrayed us as well as the Sunnis of western Iraq. In the case of Syria, Assad is more than corrupt, but is evil.

  • Moody's Analytics: Hillary Clinton Will Win Presidency

    05/23/2016 4:45:52 PM PDT · 62 of 73
    Redmen4ever to Redmen4ever

    I’ve now gone to the source, and find - exactly as I had expected - the model was calibrated on elections of the past so many years.

    It has yet to generate one out-of-sample forecast that was subsequently sustained or contradicted.

    Basically, with 8 elections upon which to calibrate a model, it’s a guarantee that calibrating a model with 8 parameters will give an exact fit to the past. But, there would be no measure of forecasting precision for the future. Paradoxically, the better the fit to the past (with a large number of parameters), the lower the out-of-sample forecasting ability.

    In the report, I count income, gas prices, housing prices, voter fatigue, presidential approval, and past vote share. That’s 6. Relative to eight elections, that’s a large number of parameters. I am sorry, but the Moody’s Analytics people either don’t know what they’re talking about, or do know and think their readers don’t.

    To correct my prior post, Ray C. Fair of Yale first developed his model in 1978 with data through 1976 (not 1876).

  • Moody's Analytics: Hillary Clinton Will Win Presidency

    05/23/2016 3:23:47 PM PDT · 51 of 73
    Redmen4ever to Roos_Girl

    With regard to Moody’s Analytics, I’m happy to hear they have a model. First time I’ve heard of it, and I’ve been in the business for decades. I suspect that they back-forecasted the past, as they calibrated the parameters of the model; rather than first developed a model and then used it, election after election, to forecast the unknown future.

    Ray C. Fair of Yale has a peer-review economics-based model and he’s forecasting a big, 10-point victory for the Republicans.

    Fair first published his model in 1978, based on data through 1876; and, he has updated it, in a transparent way, each election since.

    If you’re wondering, Fair forecast a close win for Mitt in 2012, and instead Obama had a close win. This is what he said afterwords:

    “It looks like the two-party vote share for Obama will be about 51.3 percent. The last prediction of the vote equation below (dated October 26, 2012) was 49.0 percent, which is an error of 2.3 percentage points. The standard error of the equation is 2.5, and so the actual error is about equal to the standard error. An error this small means that when I reestimate the vote equation with the 2012 election added, the coefficient estimates are not likely to change much. There is nothing in the 2012 results that cast doubt on the specification of the equation.”

    Those of you who tracked the election know that Mitt was ahead ever so slightly going into the 3rd debate. Then, Mitt fell into the prevent defense and lost that debate. And, then there was Superstorm Sandy and a big hug from the Governor of New Jersey.

    While Fair says, correctly, his model wasn’t off by much, it’s a lot easier to accept a forecast that is slightly off when your candidate is the winner, than when your candidate is a loser.

  • Obama weighs selling U.S. arms to Hanoi in bitter irony for Vietnam veterans

    05/23/2016 4:15:26 AM PDT · 60 of 65
    Redmen4ever to Nachum

    Our soldiers have acquitted themselves on the battlefield in every war including those, such as Vietnam, that our politicians subsequently lost. Our cause, which is freedom, will eventually win, even if we fail. We, the Americans, if we embrace our greatness, can be friends and allies of all other nations in the world. If we achieve, through vigilance, economic advantage and diplomacy, a victory that our politicians squandered, it honors those who made the ultimate sacrifices during that war, as we never sought to conquer Vietnam, but to enable the people of that country to be free.

  • Austrian election could produce EU's first far-right head of state

    05/22/2016 8:12:04 AM PDT · 10 of 30
    Redmen4ever to bkopto

    The “far right” of the Austrian Freedom Party is far right to the mainstream media only because the mainstream media is far left. Center-right parties go along with this nonsense because the Austrian Freedom Party, the German Alternative Party, and the UK Independence Party are their rivals.

  • U.S. Crews Fail To Place in NATO Tank Competition

    05/19/2016 8:14:15 AM PDT · 33 of 49
    Redmen4ever to Nachum

    First, congratulations to the winners and every tank crew in this competition was a winner to just to get to it. It’s like an Olympics.

    Second, back in the day when I was in the Army in Germany, we thought we were hot sh*t. But, were we surprised that our comrades in the National Guard, and the long haired, pot-smoking tank crews from the Netherlands, and conscripts from Germany could compete with us.

    Third, wars aren’t won or lost based on individual tank crews, or individual aircraft crews, or whatever, although each man, each crew, and each combination of crew and weapon system makes his contribution. The proficiency of tank crews, number of tanks, their strategic and tactical mobility, combined arms, maintenance and supply, and the battle plan all are very important.

    Regarding the Abrams, the M1A2 Abrams is on the big side as “main battle tanks” go, but the Leopard 2 is about the same size, and is similar in many other characteristics. The Abrams has only limited foreign buyers and among the few, one is now looking to order Leopard 2s. As I have seen cost estimate of $5 to 6 million apiece for each, I wonder what’s going on.

  • Hillary Clinton to support Federal Reserve change sought by liberals

    05/17/2016 7:20:08 AM PDT · 25 of 36
    Redmen4ever to expat_panama

    The Federal Reserve System is much larger and more complicated than it should be.

    The system of a Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., and 12 (regional) Banks was devised as a compromise between having a central bank versus a decentralized banking system; and, also to deal with “housekeeping operations” such as clearing checks.

    The fact is, the system has evolved into a central bank, and the housekeeping operations should be spun off to the private sector. There actually is no need for the (regional) banks.

    Now, as to the malarky that the Fed is dominated by white males: Women have made less inroad into banking and finance than into corporate management in general. Management involves a broad range of skills, including many in which the average woman has an advantage relative to the average man (e.g., interpersonal relations). Banking and finance emphasizes the skills (abstract reasoning) in which the average man has an advantage relative to the average woman.

    It is, of course, politically incorrect to recognize that we - and practically all other advanced animals - are dimorphic (specialized by sex). The other party is into denying such basic realities. Hence, the other party will eventually come to see sex differences in everything as due to prejudice, and deny the obvious fact of dimorphism.

    As to race (or, ethnicity), banking and finance has no necessary connection to race. Other things equal, people of the several races should percolate up to all levels in the industry. But, it should not be surprising that individuals who overwhelmingly vote Democratic are going to have a hard time succeeding in the world of private enterprise and especially those parts of private enterprise that rely on contract and the rule of law.

  • The Thinking Man’s Guide to Donald Trump

    05/14/2016 5:05:12 AM PDT · 12 of 25
    Redmen4ever to monkapotamus

    I wouldn’t confine Trump to a pre-set list of 10 characteristics of successful leaders. There have been very different, very successful leaders, even within the same occupation.

    In terms of comparing the leadership qualities of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Hillary is a political animal. She is all about serving the special interest groups that comprise the Democratic Party. She has only been successful in being elected U.S. Senator from New York State, a very Democratic state. She flubbed health insurance as First Lady. She did not succeed in getting any meaningful legislation passed as a U.S. Senator. She lost to Barack Obama in 2008. She is losing to Bernie Sanders (!) in the primaries and will be the nominee of the Democratic Party only because the super-delegates say it’s “her turn.”

    In comparison, Donald Trump has demonstrated substantial success in the worlds of real estate development and entertainment, and has already re-written much of the book on running for President. (We seeing him transition from winning the nomination to the next phase of his campaign, and things may start to look different.)

    In terms of style, Hillary works through layers of bureaucracy, making transparency and accountability difficult. This is a typical political approach. For her, the appearance of making a decision is avoided, and when a decision cannot be avoided, the decision is made deniable.

    Trump is an entrepreneur, keeps his advisors close to him, trusts his intuition, and is adept at modifying his position or changing it altogether. This style is refreshing but can be frustrating. I’ll just say that it’s very different from the style of politicians and their carefully calibrated statements that say nothing.

    At the same time that Trump is an hands-on leader, he is also demonstrated an ability to direct a multi-faceted, multi-national enterprise (or, set of enterprises), and to do this for many years in a constantly changing world. This demonstrated tremendous ability to work with and through others, delegating authority, setting the corporate image and communication.

    While Trump Enterprises is very large, it is dwarfed by Fortune 100 companies, which in turn are dwarfed by the size of the federal government. Nevertheless, Trump would come as prepared to be President as any Governor, Cabinet officer or General, in terms of the size and complexity of his executive experience. Clinton’s four years of experience at State is not very good. For all the shortcomings of the Iran deal, Secretary Kerry has done a much better job.

  • Cruz: No interest in Supreme Court position

    05/13/2016 3:36:23 PM PDT · 75 of 95
    Redmen4ever to Trumpinator

    Politicians always downplay positions other than the one they’re currently in or running for; e.g., downplaying the possibility of running for President in the future, of accepting a nomination for Vice President in the future, or of accepting a judicial or a cabinet nomination in the future.

  • After Trump congratulates him, London’s new Muslim mayor ‘spits in his eye’ with this warning

    05/11/2016 2:05:16 PM PDT · 75 of 96
    Redmen4ever to RoosterRedux

    just like a Muslim: threatening violence.

  • What will happen to Ted Cruz's and John Kasich's delegates? (And Rubio's)

    05/11/2016 2:05:16 PM PDT · 29 of 32
    Redmen4ever to Beautiful_Gracious_Skies

    The physical bodies will go to the convention. Depending on what happens between now and the convention, the actual delegates will draft the party platform either to their liking independent of Trump, or to accommodate the Presidential nominee. Since none of them are bound on a VP vote, there is the possibility of the convention choosing the VP nominee instead of following the recommendation of the Presidential nominee.

    While these are possibilities, I doubt it. The strong victories of Trump following Wisconsin, making Indiana do or die for Cruz, and then his big victory in Indiana, have given Trump abut ten weeks to focus on party unity and winning the general election.

    At this point: Trump needs the infrastructure and ground troops of the Republican Party. Also, the money. Trump cannot and will not even try to self-fund the general election campaign. The Republican Party needs the persona and following of Trump. Not only to win the Presidency, but to retain and perhaps even expand on our majorities in Congress and our positions in many state governments.

    At some point, people are going to realize Trump is not a professional politician. So, he doesn’t always calibrate what he says. He’s spontaneous. He thinks out loud. He plays with his audience. Trump is open to correction (which is not the same as ‘admitting mistakes’). He is also deliberately outrageous, since he is by nature a deal-maker and expects to compromise.

    Together, the old-fashioned conservatives and the new-style Trump conservatives have an opportunity to chart the course of the Republican Party. So, I think Trump will nominate somebody the conservatives will like, for VP. And, I think Trump will basically embrace the Republican platform with modifications reflecting his priorities, and the members of the platform committee will make these modifications.

    The moderates like Kasich will either accommodate themselves to this reality or back Hillary. Actually, Trump is himself a social moderate, so don’t be too surprised if only a few moderates jump ship.

    As to those who, in the end, jump ship, maybe there are some prissy conservatives who object to Trump’s bigger than life persona and his antics. But, if Trump is going to nominate judges who will uphold our Constitution, what’s a few vulgar reflexes? I think, when all is said and done, the few who will jump ship will be the neo-cons who think the purpose of the US is to be the world’s policeman and get into as many wars as possible. They will be the ones who will go with Hillary Clinton and a continuation of the neo-con agenda.

  • Why Russia will Never Attack Poland

    05/11/2016 10:08:49 AM PDT · 31 of 49
    Redmen4ever to spetznaz

    I agree with you that Russia would be stupid to invade Poland. But, history is replete with stupid wars. Wars often result from mis-calculation, from calculated risks that get out of hand, and from minor players either acting on their own or contrary to the interests of their ally/sponsor.

    The calculated risks that Russia has taken include: supporting an insurgency in the Ukraine and declaring an interest in the Baltic states (along with other ‘near Republics’).

    NATO has responded by asserting itself not only within the sovereign territory of its member states, but also by projecting force in Ukraine and Georgia. Finland and Sweden are reconsidering their relationship to NATO. There is even talk in Germany of possibly one day meeting its NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense(!).

    We can speculate as to Russia’s purpose in its provocations and actual violations of the sovereign territory of other nations, but it is a very good thing that Poland maintains a large (for its size) military force. Ditto South Korea. Ditto Israel. It is one thing for the Germans or the Swedes or even for the Americans to talk about geopolitic risks. It’s another thing for a front-line nation. Especially with the possibility of world in which order is no longer maintained by the US acting as the world’s policeman.

  • Why Russia will Never Attack Poland

    05/11/2016 8:03:53 AM PDT · 9 of 49
    Redmen4ever to SeekAndFind

    Poland + Ukraine cut Europe in two. They could cut off the flow Russian oil to west Europe, and the flow of Euros eastward. Russia will not threaten Poland until it has subdued or even reconquored Ukraine.

  • President Obama: Donald Trump's Record 'Needs to be Examined'

    05/08/2016 5:54:41 AM PDT · 34 of 68
    Redmen4ever to HomerBohn

    The argument for Obama being qualified to be president in 2008 was that he managed a campaign capable of winning. By such an argument, Genghis Khan and Alexander the Great showed they were qualified to be emperor based on their conquests. But campaigning is not the same thing as governing.

    Regarding Trump, his qualification is that he has been a successful businessman. This has involved managing far-flung enterprises and dealing with multiple constituencies. This is comparable or surpasses prior executive experiences of generals and governors, although the truth is nothing compares to being President of the United States.

    With regard to managing a campaign, Trump has written an entire new book for winning a major party nomination. This is already an historical election. Every American should feel good that a person - admittedly with a huge bank account and well-established as a celebrity - can come from outside the system and win.

    (Trump himself disproves that the system is rigged.)

    Obama, by refusing to recognize the obvious qualifications of Trump, only reveals that he is so partisan and prejudiced, that he is incapable of rendering a valid opinion of what is going on. Obama only shows that he is a little man, incapable of rising above petty politics. You can disagree with Trump on the issues and/or disapprove of Trump’s vulgar ways, but you have to give the man credit for his accomplishments.

  • Bill Mitchell:I wish I could sit down with #NeverTrump and ask them, "When YOU say Conservative, wha

    05/08/2016 4:28:45 AM PDT · 64 of 100
    Redmen4ever to BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

    Winners do not unite the party by saying now it’s time for you to agree with me. They unite the party by “making deals,” such as:

    Showing the factions of the party how their interests are advanced by the winner of the nomination winning in the general election. Typically this is done on the basis of the lesser of two evils. You might not agree with me on everything (a euphemism for a wide range of disagreements), but I’m not a bad as Hillary Clinton.

    The lesser of two evils tactic turns some people off and can be pushed too far. If pushed too far, the consequence is third party siphoning. So, in practice, winners of nominations simultaneously attempt to (1) motivate the base, (2) appeal to swing and independent voters, and (3) minimize third-party siphoning.

    As for what “conservatives” believe, the word means different things over time and between the English-speaking world and the European continent. It can change in meaning and perhaps is changing in meaning. But, Reagan - who was not in real time supported by Trump - defined it as (1) a market-oriented economy, (2) upholding traditional moral values, and (3) a strong national defense. This definition preceded Reagan, dating back to about 1960, and continues to today, unless it has now changed.

    There are differences between this definition of conservatism and the populist brand of conservatism, but there are similarities as well. Trump is a smart person and within reach of being elected President of the United States. He should be able to figure this out.

  • SHOCK poll shows where Cruz and Kasich’s supporters will go now that they’re out…

    05/05/2016 4:14:48 AM PDT · 266 of 273
    Redmen4ever to BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

    Until things got serious, most Cruz supporters’ second choice was Trump (and visa versa). Then the pushing and shoving started. I do think, now that the nominee is chosen, almost all Cruzaders will come around and support Trump. I’m not as confident about moderate Republicans. But, how many people are we talking about? Plus, Trump will get many more Democrat-crossovers than Clinton will get Republican-crossovers. The net crossover vote will be very positive for Trump.

  • Braveheart - Solitary Trump Supporter Battered by Phalanx of Shrieking Lefty GOONS in Burlingame

    05/02/2016 6:17:10 AM PDT · 75 of 93
    Redmen4ever to gaijin

    Trump supporters should not be cursed, especially not by children.

  • John Kasich: People "probably" born gay

    05/01/2016 7:24:04 AM PDT · 25 of 43
    Redmen4ever to SeekAndFind

    if people are “born gay,” is it possible people are born hetero?

    In requiring people who go into business to serve everyone, the government is denying people who are inclined, for whatever reason, to not go along with the majority on that issue. This is huge and should require something compelling. Breaking resistance to race-based discrimination was warranted by the harm done to those discriminated against, as a result of an effective, society-wide conspiracy to restrain trade. But, there is no evidence of systematic discrimination against gays.

    Besides, what does “equal rights” mean when there are no rights? We’re talking equal benefits, not equal rights.

  • Internal Poll Numbers Show Cruz Collapsing In Indiana

    04/29/2016 4:59:41 AM PDT · 16 of 97
    Redmen4ever to Trump20162020

    Votes matter. They’re not the only thing to matter. Organization matters. Endorsements matter. But, winning and winning big develops momentum.

    In leaked internal polls and in the few public polls we have, Trump moved ahead of Cruz in Indiana, after New York. They were maybe tied in Indiana prior to New York. The Northeast Super Tuesday primaries didn’t help Cruz in Indiana. The VP announcement grabbed some attention away from Trump’s big win, and so was helpful. But, Cruz needs the endorsement of the Governor, as he got in Wisconsin, to have a realistic chance of winning on Tuesday.

    If Trump wins Indiana, he cannot be prevented from winning on the first ballot. Cruz has to win Indiana and then win California to stop Trump from a first ballot victory, and Cruz is the underdog in each.

  • MSNBC'S Hunt: Cruz Camp Saying Indiana Is Ted's Alamo

    04/27/2016 3:12:21 PM PDT · 76 of 99
    Redmen4ever to LS

    The political commentator made the analogy. Cruz, being a Texan, might be supposed to know about the Alamo. To stick with the Alamo analogy, yesterday was the Alamo, and Indiana will be San Jacinto, from a Cruz perspective.


    Florida - Normandy
    Arizona - Breakout at St. Lo
    Utah through Wisconsin - first part of the Battle of the Bulge
    New York - Bastogne
    yesterday - allied advance into Germany

  • ELCA Leader Says Jesus was "Intersex"

    04/27/2016 12:49:53 PM PDT · 35 of 43
    Redmen4ever to If You Want It Fixed - Fix It

    God is indeed described as our heavenly father and as having compassion (from the Hebrew, mother’s womb). Nevertheless, He is a pure spirit. So, he is neither male nor female, nor both and not even neither.

    With respect to Jesus, his human self is male. His oneness with the Father is oneness with a pure spirit.

    “Inter-sex” is a range of physical conditions, and is sometimes used to describe amiguous demeanor unassociated with any physical condition. In the historical circumstances into which Jesus was born, inter-sex as a physical condition would have disqualified Jesus from serving as the Passover Lamb.

    The Gospel of Matthew (or, the Gospel “to the Jews”) is very careful about the Jewishness of Jesus. The other gospels (Mark, “to the Romans;” Luke, “to the Greeks;” and John, “to the Christians”) reflect the full range of sensitives of the early church.

    That four versions address the diverse cultural concerns of the early church could be taken to mean that addressing contemporary cultural concerns is legitimate. But, we should contextualize the Bible carefully, so as not to conflict with what it says.

    But, as to whether I am correct or not in my reading of the Bible, I would hope that a Christian would welcome dialogue and not be offended at discussion. Jesus, at any early age, engaged the rabbis at the Temple in discussion of Torah, which is an honorable tradition among Jews.

  • WMUR first: Cruz to announce intention to name Fiorina as his running mate

    04/27/2016 12:02:26 PM PDT · 209 of 222
    Redmen4ever to MichaelCorleone

    Susana Martinez works well with her state legislature and helped the GOP increase its seats, even taking the state House of Representatives.

    We could do worse.

    Trump-Martinez like Cruz-Forinia “balance” the ticket in many ways. Ideology (within our party), region, gender, race/ethnicity, and politics/business background.

    Trump-Martiniz features two people with genuine charisma. Cruz-Fiorina features two people who come across as analytical (to those who like them) (or cold or unlikable, to others).

  • WMUR first: Cruz to announce intention to name Fiorina as his running mate

    04/27/2016 11:48:31 AM PDT · 206 of 222
    Redmen4ever to Frederick303

    First, let me say this may all be academic. Trump is on track for a first ballot victory. It’s do or die for Cruz in Indiana, and even if Cruz were to pull an upset there, Trump has other ways to the magic number.

    Cruz poses a big problem for Republicans in the northeast. He, like Trump, motivates the other side (Cruz on ideology and Trump on personality). Kasich, who hasn’t been getting much attention, wipes out Hillary nationwide and in many states. I think Kasich shows our real potential, if we unite as a party. But, is Kasich the best white knight? He has finessed his way to this point in the process by not doing much. He’s maybe too moderate for either Cruz or Trump’s people. So, I myself thought Greg Abbott would make the right kind of white knight a couple days ago.

    There is no guarantee that Cruz gets the nomination on the second ballot. Even among his double-agents are many solid conservatives interested in us putting forth the best candidate. So, here’s what I’ll say: First ballot - Trump. Second ballot - Cruz. Third ballot - all bets are off.

  • WMUR first: Cruz to announce intention to name Fiorina as his running mate

    04/27/2016 10:16:24 AM PDT · 107 of 222
    Redmen4ever to chris37

    Now I’m thinking you went to Trump Graduate School. Did your dissertation concern the finer points of negatively commenting on people’s looks.

  • ELCA Leader Says Jesus was "Intersex"

    04/27/2016 10:12:47 AM PDT · 10 of 43
    Redmen4ever to Gamecock

    Jesus was circumcised on the 8th day.

    When his family was returning from Egypt, he was thought by each parent to be with the other since he was at the age when boys start associating with their father and stop associating with their mother.

    When he was dying, he passed the responsibility for taking care of this mother to his beloved disciple John the Evangelist. (Knowing as he did that his younger brothers, who would be martyred, would not be able to do so.)

    I could mention yet other verses that speak to his acting as a Jewish male. This inter-sex thing is blasphemy.

  • WMUR first: Cruz to announce intention to name Fiorina as his running mate

    04/27/2016 10:06:37 AM PDT · 88 of 222
    Redmen4ever to euram

    Question: How would a Trumpeter know that RR chose a running mate in 1976 before the convention, if a Cruzader didn’t tell him?

    Answer: He found the answer in his box of Crackerjacks.

    ACTUALLY, now that we just had the Pennsylvania “loophole” primary, you could see the logic (as well as the desperation) in Reagan’s naming of Sen. Sweickert of Pennsylvania as his running. ALL the district delegates from Pennsylvania are technically unbound. Reagan was hoping Sweickert would bring maybe half of them with him. But, it didn’t work. Ford won the nomination and went on to lose the general election to Carter.

    Carly has been a very good campaigner. Also, Heidi. Maybe Ted’s best surrogates.

    The female angle isn’t bad. But, I love what Trump did, saying Hillary wouldn’t get 5 percent of the vote if she were a he. Great jujitsu. Raised my already high impression of Trump.

    Cruz has to change the narrative in the face of a ton of good news for Trump. If he can get follow-up this VP announcement with an endorsement from Pence, the way he got from Walker in Wisconsin, he might be able to ski through the avalanche.

  • WMUR first: Cruz to announce intention to name Fiorina as his running mate

    04/27/2016 9:54:23 AM PDT · 55 of 222
    Redmen4ever to chris37

    If you’re telling me you learned etiquette at Trump University, I would guess you got an A+ in the course.

  • Still Report #818 - Cruz Quickly Backstabs Kasich Over Treaty

    04/27/2016 9:50:35 AM PDT · 10 of 16
    Redmen4ever to bigbob

    Oregon and New Mexico are proportional representation states. Indiana a winner-takes-all state.

    To people who know the rules, the announcement by Kasich that he was focusing his attention on Oregon and New Mexico, makes sense given that Cruz is (or was) within several points of Trump in Indiana.

    But, the good news for Trumpeters is that, should Cruz pull off an upset in Indiana (which I consider a long-shot), they will have a ready-made excuse.

    Here’s my recommendation: pretend that this is a golf course and par is 50 percent.

  • WMUR first: Cruz to announce intention to name Fiorina as his running mate

    04/27/2016 9:42:45 AM PDT · 27 of 222
    Redmen4ever to chris37


    Sounds like, Who would vote for those faces.

  • It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose (Well, at least if he wins Indiana.)

    04/27/2016 9:18:41 AM PDT · 38 of 44
    Redmen4ever to Ciexyz

    Your post was unclear.

    PA-district delegate candidates weren’t listed on the ballot with the name of the candidate they would support. While technically unbound, some indicated through other channels who they were inclined to support.

    Trump did very well in winning district delegates. I’ve heard 40. I presume the media will start listing these as “soft” versus “hard” count delegates. Add to these a percentage of the delegates from the remaining proportional representation state and the delegates from New Jersey. At least another hundred.

    Give WV to Trump, Nebraska and South Dakota to Cruz. We’re talking 1150 or so for Trump. Within a 100 of a first ballot victory. If Trump wins California, that’s it. Trump can lose Indiana and still win a first ballot victory. On the other hand, there is no realistic way for Cruz to stop Trump if Cruz loses Indiana. Even winning Indiana probably only prolongs the agony.

  • Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz to make major announcement at 4pm ET

    04/27/2016 7:52:21 AM PDT · 14 of 27
    Redmen4ever to BradtotheBone

    Cruz, Fiorina … who would vote for those faces?

  • Exclusive: Half of Americans think presidential nominating system 'rigged' - poll

    04/27/2016 7:44:00 AM PDT · 35 of 38
    Redmen4ever to JerseyDvl

    You have moved from a sore loser to a sore winner.

    The poll was conducted before yesterday’s primaries, based on sore loser complaints. But, yesterday Trump won big and things have changed.

    The rules have helped Trump in some ways, and have helped Cruz in other ways. It is a complex system, but, bottom line, Trump is proof that the system is not rigged, at least not in the sense that it is impossible for an outsider to win.

    So, what does “rigged” mean? That Trump is on line to win the nomination, “rigged” must mean something like “unfair.” According to wikipedia, Trump has received 40 percent of the votes thus far cast, and has 52 percent of the delegates thus far awarded.,_2016

    What percent of the delegates do you think Trump should have? (My answer is 52 percent.)

  • Exclusive: Half of Americans think presidential nominating system 'rigged' - poll

    04/27/2016 6:06:26 AM PDT · 22 of 38
    Redmen4ever to McGruff

    rigged = impossible for somebody from out of nowhere to join a political party and win its nomination.

    difficult = possible, but such a person would have to be extraordinary.

    But, if Donald said Cruz stole Monday, Trumpeters would complain about losing a day.

  • VANITY: To the Cruz supporters here - what states will Cruz win in the general that Romney did not?

    04/25/2016 6:17:01 PM PDT · 70 of 71
    Redmen4ever to HamiltonJay

    Sorry Charlie. You’re not my English teacher.

    You asked what states would Cruz or Kasich win in addition to the Romney states. I said (#32): FL, OH, WI and IA. And gave a short argument for this, and then said the same would apply to Trump.

    You said (#38) you wouldn’t bet the farm on Cruz carrying WI.

    I didn’t call you stupid for not knowing that RealClear rates Wi a toss-up for Cruz, but a disaster for Trump. No. I informed you (#45) of the basis in fact of my opinion.

    Nobody knows all the facts. Non-stupid people are capable of processing new information. Do you recall when Trump was talking about the risks of inoculations during, I think, the second debate? Do you remember Ben Carson calmly sharing some facts with Trump about this, and Trump modifying his position. That exchange spoke well of Trump (and also of Carson).

    Carson has since distinguished between the “entertainer” Trump and the “thoughtful” Trump. I thought this was a left-handed compliment. But, the truth is, I have no idea how much of what Trump is doing is an act.

    Anyway, it was after I shared the links to RealClear concerning Trump, that you came back with (#48): “You say that as though Trump would need WI to win.. this is the stupidity of this discussion.”

    The stupid word. From out of nowhere. Or maybe I should say from out of you. When confronted with facts, you revert to Donald-like insulting.

    So, let me close with something you will take as a compliment: I think you are a great advocate for the Donald Trump approach to politics.

  • VANITY: To the Cruz supporters here - what states will Cruz win in the general that Romney did not?

    04/25/2016 2:47:44 PM PDT · 68 of 71
    Redmen4ever to HamiltonJay

    “You say that as though Trump would need WI to win.. this is the stupidity of this discussion.”

    You didn’t call me stupid?

    And, you didn’t lie by misquoting yourself, changing “you” to “it,” to remove me from the subject?

    And, you think stupid is NOT what stupid does, so that people who say stupid things are not themselves stupid?

    You are wrong about supposing I see the election (primary or general) in static terms. The election has been dynamic and will continue to be, thus far mostly because of the winnowing process.

    When he entered the race, Trump staked out a populist position not well established within the Republican Party. This not only challenged traditional lines of demarcation within the RP, it also gave Trump a strong advantage relative to similar candidates (e.g., social conservatives, economic conservatives, and moderates) splitting the vote within their segments of the RP. Plus, Trump has charisma pouring out of the … wherever. He connects with people on an emotional level the way few politicians do.

    Having said that, there is no indication that Trump generates new support in the general election, either in terms of favorability or in terms of nationwide match-ups or match-ups in key states. The possibility he offers of increased support from cross-over Democrats, independents and non-voters, has to be weighed against the possibility of losing moderates, social conservatives and libertarian conservatives.

    I believe that whoever wins the nomination will have a decent chance of winning the election. Occasionally, we see this in polls. While Cruz outperforms Trump, I think the true potential for the Republican is somewhere between Cruz’ and Kasich’s support, assuming he unites the RP. (Kasich’s numbers are inflated because nobody is attacking him. Just wait until and if he becomes relevant and catches the attacks Cruz and Trump are dealing with.)

    Certainly, calling grass-roots conservatives liars and thieves, in addition to calling them stupid, doesn’t bode well for uniting the party. Neither is calling them insiders while bragging about having been on the inside with Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton when he was a Democrat, and being on the inside with Mitch McConnell now that he’s a Republican. But, Trump and his friend who publishes the National Enquirer and his henchman Roger Stone are focused on winning the nomination, and this means smearing whomever is Trump’s closest rival.

    This demeanor may change with Trump’s brining Paul Manafort and other insiders on board. People who have worked for McCain, Dole, and both Bushes, and who have been highly-paid D.C. lobbyists. These guys actually know the rules very well, and know that Trump should focus on winning and stop being a cry-baby about which of rules favor the other guy instead of favoring him.

  • Donald Trump: 'If I lose, I don’t think you will ever see me again'

    04/25/2016 10:31:26 AM PDT · 13 of 116
    Redmen4ever to Rustybucket

    For the first time in my adult life time, I’m proud of my country. Michelle Obama

    For the first time in my adult life time, I’m proud of my party. Donald Trump

  • VANITY: To the Cruz supporters here - what states will Cruz win in the general that Romney did not?

    04/25/2016 9:58:54 AM PDT · 55 of 71
    Redmen4ever to HamiltonJay

    I didn’t call you stupid for saying Cruz would lose Wisconsin when the objective data says otherwise. Instead, I showed you the objective data. But, being a Trumpeter, you can’t help but respond with name-calling. You say the person with the highest unfavorables ever in history is going to landslide to victory. It’s not debatable because it’s a religious belief.

  • VANITY: To the Cruz supporters here - what states will Cruz win in the general that Romney did not?

    04/25/2016 9:35:52 AM PDT · 45 of 71
    Redmen4ever to HamiltonJay

    “WI … wouldn’t bet the farm on that at all if they have Kasich or Cruz on the ballot”

    Reakclear rates Clinton-Cruz a toss-up:

    In contrast, Clinton has a 10 point lead over a certain real estate mogul from New York:

  • VANITY: To the Cruz supporters here - what states will Cruz win in the general that Romney did not?

    04/25/2016 9:17:15 AM PDT · 32 of 71
    Redmen4ever to Eccl 10:2

    Romney states + Florida + Iowa + Wisconsin + Ohio = 269 EVs (a tie, throwing the election to the House of Representatives, where we win)

    Florida is an absolute must win state for any Republican. Romney came very close.

    The other three are winnable midwestern states. We have been improving in those states in terms of Gov., Sen., Congr. and state legislature. These states argue for Kasich or Walker to balance the GOP ticket. Perhaps Joni Ernst if you’re looking for a female candidate. A midwestern running mate isn’t a guarantee. Ryan didn’t enable Romney to win the midwest in 2012.

    As for Trump, I would give the exact same answer. In spite of being from New York and being a social moderate, he has zero chance of carrying that state or other such states in the absence of a landslide victory.

    NOTICE: An expanded map would include Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine-2 and converting Michigan to district method.

  • Hewitt: Doubtful that Trump reaches 1,237 delegates, unless a ‘political asteroid’ hits California

    04/24/2016 10:06:43 PM PDT · 86 of 96
    Redmen4ever to freespirit2012

    Cruz has a path to the nomination. The path involves a second ballot. In terms of what anybody “needs to do,” it is to focus on winning.

  • Hewitt: Doubtful that Trump reaches 1,237 delegates, unless a ‘political asteroid’ hits California

    04/24/2016 7:27:07 PM PDT · 62 of 96
    Redmen4ever to MaxistheBest

    This isn’t going to be automatic one way or the other. If Cruz wins Indiana and does o.k. in California, the Cruz forces a second ballot (unless something really unusual happens). If Trump wins Indiana and/or does very well in California, Trump, then Trump wins of the first ballot (unless something really unusual happens).

    BOTTOM LINE: Neither side should tai anything for granted.

  • Action Alert: Arizona GOP State Convention April 30th – Trump Supporters Needed…

    04/23/2016 3:54:52 PM PDT · 3 of 46
    Redmen4ever to Mechanicos

    heads will role at the Cruz HQ when they catch whoever it was who leaker this information

  • Why the North Carolina Transgender law is Counterproductive

    04/23/2016 2:46:34 PM PDT · 17 of 49
    Redmen4ever to minimum12

    This is a valid point. We want to be able legally, distinguish perverts pretending to be transgendered from people who are serious about crossing over. The law might say that a person’s genetic sex is a “refutable presumption.” This would mean that persons who have indeed crossed over, and wouldn’t be noticed anyway, would be legally protected; and, that we would be able to protect children from perverts.

  • [Roger Stone] Trump ally suggests loyalty pledge for delegates

    04/19/2016 12:42:13 PM PDT · 48 of 50
    Redmen4ever to grania

    >>”the situation has changed”

    And do you think that you changing your mind was independent of Trump changing his mind, or is your definition of what is right and wrong whatever Trump has most recently said?

  • [Roger Stone] Trump ally suggests loyalty pledge for delegates

    04/19/2016 5:25:35 AM PDT · 8 of 50
    Redmen4ever to markomalley

    Here in Virginia, Trump criticized the loyalty oath. I guess that was then and this is now. Like being pro-life.


    04/18/2016 6:50:09 AM PDT · 18 of 94
    Redmen4ever to shortstop

    If anyone slaps you on the right cheek, turn to them the other cheek also. Mt. 5:39

    To be slapped on the right check is a Jewish idiom (Matthew’s is “the Jewish” Gospel). To be slapped on the right check is to be slapped with the other person’s left hand. It means to be insulted. Jesus says let insults go. “Turn the other check.” See if you are then slapped with the right hand, which would be an actual harm. THEN, the law “eye for eye” kicks in.

    Jesus said he did not come to change the law, but to fulfill or be the end of the law. It would be good to know the cultural context of what Jesus said. This would help many people who think there’s a dichotomy between common sense and following Jesus.

  • Should Cruz Propose a Freed Up Presidential College? [vanity]

    04/18/2016 5:47:56 AM PDT · 25 of 36
    Redmen4ever to Flick Lives

    “Cruz is ignorant of how he’s being played…”

    And his wife is ugly. Marco is short. Who would vote for a face like Carly’s. Megyn is bleeding from her wherever. Oh, and Cruz is a pussy.

  • Should Cruz Propose a Freed Up Presidential College? [vanity]

    04/18/2016 5:44:08 AM PDT · 24 of 36
    Redmen4ever to Arthur Wildfire! March

    If no team of candidates receives a majority of the votes cast by the Electoral College on the first ballot, then the election is then decided - for President - in the House of Representatives and - for Vice President - in the Senate.

    Are Trumpeters saying the Electoral College should quick be changed to plurality voting, just like they are saying the Republican nomination should be changed to plurality voting?

    I know many of you guys only recently joined the Republican Party, and I welcome you. And, if you win by our rules, more power to you. But, joining somebody else’s party and saying we have to change our rules to favor your candidate who, like you, only recently joined our party, does take a lot of chutzpah.

    But you are going from chutzpah to ridiculous to say “we” should also change the Electoral College because if your guy doesn’t win get a majority on the first ballot there, the decision will be made by people (the members of the House of Representatives) that Trump doesn’t control.

    Trump is the frontrunner. How about focusing on wining the remaining contests. Leave the cry-babying for later.