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Posts by Sooth2222

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  • Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread 23 October 2016

    10/23/2016 8:50:46 AM PDT · 201 of 275
    Sooth2222 to Cboldt
    "It's a majority liberal audience. Heads of all the media outfits, plus the on-air "talent." The audience is hostile to Trump the candidate. It liked Trump the builder. "

    Can't think of a better audience to be booed by!

  • Could Trump Pull Off a Surprise Last-Minute Victory? Two Reputable Pollsters Say “Yes.”

    10/23/2016 5:31:42 AM PDT · 75 of 81
    Sooth2222 to goldstategop
    From what I would find, PA ranks #34 for voter turnout, below all of the surrounding states except for New York. Who isn't voting in PA?

    Trump must think he has a good chance there. Does he? If I knew as much about marketing myself as Donald Trump knows about marketing Donald Trump, I'd have a fleet of 757s too (and not an old Volvo).

  • Could Trump Pull Off a Surprise Last-Minute Victory? Two Reputable Pollsters Say “Yes.”

    10/23/2016 4:31:17 AM PDT · 63 of 81
    Sooth2222 to Az Joe
    The number is more than 2!

    Rasmussen didn't do very well in 2012, but they are a reputable firm and they modified their survey technique. They don't poll over the weekends now. The astute observers here appreciated that there was a repeating cyclicality in their polling over the weekends that showed an improvement for the Democrat candidate. (My explanation was that on weekends normal people tend to be outside and away from home, not at home sitting by the telephone waiting for someone to call.)

    There is more to "Live Phone", "Internet" and "Robodial" than the chart shows. IBD, for example, polls 65% cell phones. That gets expensive. And the analysis doesn't even get into who is doing the polling. College coeds at near-minimum wage who received an hour of training? Consider me skeptical that they are ferreting out accurate responses.

    Gallup's original 1936 poll that put them on the map had a sample size of 50,000. The cost of doing something like that today would be enormous.

    I can understand that news organizations tout their own polls, since they are paying for them, even badly-done polls are expensive and they confirm the bias of 93% of their staff.

  • Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/22/2016 8:20:21 AM PDT · 78 of 97
    Sooth2222 to rb22982
    It wouldn’t be breaking records if you include independents like Perot and Anderson

    Anderson was running as a Republican in the 1980 primaries. Comparable candidates might be a Jeb! or Ben Carson running as an independent. Perot was well known from his work with the Vietnam War POW/MIA issue. He said he would run as an independent IF his supporters could get his name on the ballot in all fifty states. Which they eventually did. In effect, there was enough unhappiness with Bush 41 and Clinton 42 that Perot was drafted.

    Two weeks before the election, I still don't think that most of the American public would identify Gary Johnson as a presidential candidate. Trump, OTOH? I don't know if the comparison has been made that Donald Trump is the Ross Perot who managed to hijack the Republican Party, so I'll make it.

    I don't doubt that the Greens + Libertarians may well "break all records" this year. I think we disagree on the margin and the distribution of Johnson and Stein identifiers who vote for Trump, Clinton or stay home.

    We'll all see, "in the fullness of time".

  • Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/22/2016 7:51:42 AM PDT · 72 of 97
    Sooth2222 to Cinnamontea
    "Serious question. Why does Fox News never show polls like this?"

    Probably because they are paying for the poll that they are touting. Would a Cadillac ad ever mention a Lexus -- and say it is a better car?

    (Most polls -- even the bad ones -- show more intensity on the Republican side. If this tells core Democrat voters that Hillary is a shoo-in so they can open a beer and stay home, that's fine with me. Hillary has trouble drawing flies to her rallies, so I believe the voter intensity results.)

  • Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/22/2016 7:43:16 AM PDT · 68 of 97
    Sooth2222 to rb22982
    If the Greens + Libertarians win more than 3.81% (combined), they will break all records. Can they possibly win 10.9% (combined)? With 2 candidates who are not nearly as well known as Ralph Nader? I doubt it.

    Sample size of 1 (one) -- I don't "approve" of Trump and I self-identify as a "small-L" libertarian. But I'm sure not going to throw my vote away on Johnson against Hillary.

    We'll see, "in the fullness of time".

  • VANITY: Is there any video of pollsters ACTUALLY polling people?

    10/22/2016 5:52:57 AM PDT · 21 of 38
    Sooth2222 to Robert DeLong
    "They are usually conducted by phone."

    The majority still are. However, these are the the (relatively) cheap ones. IBD, for example, polls 65% cell phones and this becomes expensive. LA Times provides subjects in their group with electronic devices, and this is expensive, too.

    What the majority of published polls are calling is individuals with landlines, no caller ID and time to spend talking to a 20-year old co-ed interviewer. And I do believe that Clinton polls ahead of Trump with that group! What I do not believe is that this group represents the population going to the polls and actually voting.

  • Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/22/2016 5:39:36 AM PDT · 55 of 97
    Sooth2222 to rb22982
    Even if Johnson triples Ed Clark's 1980 performance, that's still only 3.2%. And Jill Stein is Ralph Nader. She is unlikely to get 2.7%. My guess is that a good number of potential Trump votes are "parked" with Johnson and Stein.

    I'd rather see Trump ahead by 2 in the "best" poll from 2012 than behind by 8 as Reagan was at this point in 1980. Trump has been outspent about 5:1 on ads so far. It will be interesting to see what happens when he spends nearly the same amount.

    We will find out, "in the fullness of rime"!

  • Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/22/2016 4:25:01 AM PDT · 32 of 97
    Sooth2222 to rb22982
    Even better: "Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson fell 1 point to 7%, while Green Party Jill Stein held at 4%. In the first three days of the tracking poll, Trump held a 1-point lead in a four-way race. Unrounded, Trump leads 42.1% to 39.7% -- a 2.4-point edge -- with Johnson at 7.3% and Stein at 3.6%."

    Both Johnson and Stein ran in 2012. In 2012, Johnson received 0.99% of the vote, and Stein received 0.36%. The highest percentage that the Libertarians have ever won is 1.06% in 1980. My guess is that even if he breaks the 1980 record, Johnson won't get anywhere near 7.3%, The Green Party's best showing was 2.74% in 2000 with Ralph Nader. IMO, Stein is no Ralph Nader and she won't get near 3.6%. My guess is that the majority of the Johnson and Stein votes will not go to Clinton.

    In a Gallup poll of October 26th in 1980, they had Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39.

  • Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/22/2016 3:56:23 AM PDT · 17 of 97
    Sooth2222 to JonPreston; muskah
    IBD just started publishing this tracking poll 4 days ago. Polling is expensive. Good polling is very, very expensive today.

    Gallup -- that had been doing presidential polling since 1936 -- gave up after 2012.

  • Trump Leads McMullin by One Point Among Likely Utah Voters

    10/21/2016 9:39:01 AM PDT · 17 of 24
    Sooth2222 to C19fan
    "The survey was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates from October 12 to October 18, 2016, among 818 likely Utah voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.97%"

    How did they contact them? Internet? Telephone? Landline? Cell phone? Ouija board?

  • Real Clear Politics Latest Polls

    10/21/2016 8:30:54 AM PDT · 7 of 23
    Sooth2222 to DOC44
    "Trump leads in these polls today yet the MSM including FOX keeps repeating that Clinton leads in national polls and battle ground states.... are they just behind or are the blowing smoke and forecasting rain while whizzing on our leg?"

    They're reading whatever the millennial on the other end of the TelePrompter types in. They are obviously biased towards their own polls, no matter how badly the polls are done.

    If the national polls using landlines and live pollsters are wrong, then state polls using the same technique can't possibly be correct, either. "Trump might win the popular vote, but he won't win The State of X" is wishful thinking.

    Gallup gave up polling presidential elections after 2012. Since what had been the "gold standard" with a track record of presidential election polling going back to 1936 gave up, I wouldn't give much weight to polls using the same methodology.

  • IBD/TIPP DailyTracking Poll (T-41, C-40)

    10/21/2016 5:48:49 AM PDT · 32 of 88
    Sooth2222 to HamiltonJay
    "This is what the USC is great for.. Because it’s sampling the same folks daily it is a far better indicator of real trending of the race... It may not give you the accurate result but it is an excellent poll to see the real trends not the invented ones by manipulating samples."

    NOW there is a problem with the LA Times poll in that the responses are not as anonymous as the group may have thought.

    (It's not that a 19-year old black Trump supporter in Illinois is skewing the poll, it's that the NY Times somehow found out that there IS a 19 year old black Trump supporter in Illinois.)

  • IBD/TIPP DailyTracking Poll (T-41, C-40)

    10/21/2016 5:39:58 AM PDT · 25 of 88
    Sooth2222 to NKP_Vet
    "And the only polls that are “reliable” are their own polls."

    Polling is expensive, and good polling is very expensive.

    But if the goal is to sell "news", bad polling is as good as good polling, and may be even better (A "Clinton ahead by 15 points" headline gets more attention than a "Race Tied" headline).

    Was/is the survey population contacted by landlines the same in 2008, 2012 and 2016? I don't think so. In 2008 few had a smart phone. By 2012, most millennials. In 2016, even grandma has a smart phone.

    I'll agree that among voters with landlines only, no caller ID and time to waste talking to a pollster, Clinton has the lead.

  • IBD/TIPP DailyTracking Poll (T-41, C-40)

    10/21/2016 5:02:39 AM PDT · 11 of 88
    Sooth2222 to tatown
    "With Trump holding a lead in this poll along with the LA Times, Rassmussen, and PPD polls why are so many people convinced that this race is over and that Clinton will win? Honest question."

    Has the Ministry of Truth ever lied?

    (If voters are wrong about what they want, Soros' voting machines will fix that.)

  • Trump Holds On To 1-Point Lead As Debate Sparks Fly — IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/20/2016 7:15:40 AM PDT · 19 of 22
    Sooth2222 to goldstategop
    I've read that Trump is now, for the first time, outspending Clinton on TV ads.

    Trump CAN outspend Clinton -- the question is if he will, or even believes it's necessary. But at this point in time -- if Trump wins or loses, it is all up to him.

  • Trump Holds On To 1-Point Lead As Debate Sparks Fly — IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/20/2016 6:54:43 AM PDT · 15 of 22
    Sooth2222 to cicero2k
    "These tracking polls may be employing quantitative techniques the traditional polls don’t."

    They are more expensive, for one thing. IBD polls 2/3 cell phone users. USC/ LA Times has a fixed sample that they poll, but even gives them an electronic device if necessary. Both polling methods are probably more expensive than paying 50 co-eds $200 to each make 20 phone calls.

    (Gallup's 1936 election poll that put them on the map used a sample size of 50,000. The only poll that even comes close to that today is Rasmussen.)

    For another, the "cheap" polls probably "normalize" results according 2012 voter turnout demographics. Which will NOT be the same in 2016.

  • Trump Holds On To 1-Point Lead As Debate Sparks Fly — IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/20/2016 6:28:29 AM PDT · 10 of 22
    Sooth2222 to ScaniaBoy
    "he is way down in the MSM single shot polls. Obviously both cannot be right."

    Depends on what they are measuring. I do believe that Clinton has a 6 point lead among people with land lines only, and no caller ID. I tend to weight the polls that did well in 2012 heavier than the polls that didn't.

    Apparently all news outlets need their own polls -- to generate news. Presumably, their accountants want "cheap", but "cheap" and "good" are mutually exclusive goals when it comes to opinion polling. "Cheap" and "newsworthy" OTOH...

    Expect this nonsense to continue up until the week before the election.

  • Trump Holds On To 1-Point Lead As Debate Sparks Fly — IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/20/2016 6:22:35 AM PDT · 7 of 22
    Sooth2222 to SpeedyInTexas
    "a three-point lead over Trump — 43% to 41% ???"

    The "new" math. (Probably rounding, though.)

  • USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/20 -- Trump + .3 , Clinton - .1

    10/20/2016 5:30:45 AM PDT · 43 of 47
    Sooth2222 to conservativepoet
    "Most Freepers know that the averages have been skewed by intentionally distorted polling."

    Reading through the comments, I'm not sure about that. Like many things, most polling firms aren't very good at what they do. Would you want to consult a surgeon whose last 10 patients had died?

    I still have a land line but like everyone else have caller ID and pick up the phone maybe 10% of the time. The 2012 polling results suggest that a sample of people with land lines who pick up the phone and talk to pollsters isn't the same as a sample of people who vote.

    Gallup, that has been polling presidential elections since 1936 did so badly in 2012 that they gave up. I would be skeptical of any poll that uses the same 1936 methodology -- which is probably the vast majority of published polls today.

  • USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/20 -- Trump + .3 , Clinton - .1

    10/20/2016 4:59:19 AM PDT · 35 of 47
    Sooth2222 to Jeff Chandler
    "In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39."

    And THAT happened long before everyone and his grandmother went wireless. Gallup has apparently concluded that it's impossible to do accurate election polling now using 1936 methods and gave up on polling presidential elections.

  • Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point Going Into Debate -- IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/20/2016 4:48:31 AM PDT · 107 of 109
    Sooth2222 to Crucial
    "But according to CBS he is down 9 points and according to them, no cadidate has ever made up that much ground to win."

    Wrong. Wrong! WRONG! They're just lazy and/or stupid, parroting disinformation from the DNC:

    "In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39."

    And THAT happened long before everybody and his grandmother went wireless.

    I just look at the top half-dozen or so polls based on their 2012 performance, and discard the rest as noise.

    But it isn't that Trump needs to "make up ground". The issue is that almost all pollsters are bad at what they do.

    If Gallup, a firm that has polled presidential elections successfully since 1936 gave up after 2012, I'm skeptical that newcomers using the same 1936 polling techniques can provide accurate estimates in 2016.

  • Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point Going Into Debate -- IBD/TIPP Poll

    10/19/2016 5:45:59 PM PDT · 105 of 109
    Sooth2222 to convoter2016
    "Gary Johnson at 8% and Jill Stein at 6% makes me doubt this poll. If Trump maintains a lead for the next 3 weeks in this poll, I will feel a lot better."

    It makes me feel even better. "Some" Trump votes are "parked" with Johnson. I doubt he will win anywhere near 8%.

    In 2012, Johnson won 0.99% and Jill Stein won 0.36%. I expect Johnson to get into the low single digits, and maybe Stein, too. But not 8% and 6%.

    Jill Stein saying that Clinton will start WW III and Trump won't makes me optimistic about Trump winning some of those votes, too.

    I read today that Trump is now outspending Clinton on ads.

    I have little doubt that among voters with land lines only who have nothing better to do than to talk with a pollster -- Hillary really is leading!

  • The billboard mocking Donald Trump: ‘He can’t read this’

    10/19/2016 5:40:40 AM PDT · 12 of 35
    Sooth2222 to kevcol
    Muslims make up about 1% of the US population according to Pew (and about 15% of prison inmates, according to other sources).

    Like cicadas, they make an awful lot of noise for their size.

  • Rubio: I Won't Talk About Wikileaks, and Neither Should Donald Trump

    10/19/2016 3:52:09 AM PDT · 80 of 163
    Sooth2222 to cotton1706
    "Further, I want to warn my fellow Republicans who may want to capitalize politically on these leaks: Today it is the Democrats. Tomorrow it could be us."

    Good grief! Tomorrow? How about yesterday? When George Bush lived in the White House the Wikileaks target WAS the Republicans!

  • USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/18 -- Trump + .1 , Clinton - .4

    10/18/2016 4:29:11 AM PDT · 29 of 44
    Sooth2222 to cynwoody
    "She's in hiding."

    Her poll numbers are inversely related to the amount of face time that she receives.

    Trump might consider featuring Clinton in his ads. (Trump "could" outspend Clinton, the question is if he believes TV ad spending is effective, and if he will spend the money or not.)

  • Monmouth Polling Director is Rabid Anti-Trump

    10/17/2016 4:42:58 AM PDT · 8 of 12
    Sooth2222 to Rokke

    Almost by definition, opinion polling isn’t scientific.

  • Drudge Warns: Impending Hillary Sex Scandal

    10/17/2016 4:08:18 AM PDT · 86 of 189
    Sooth2222 to Zakeet

    In 2016, and sexual mores have never been longer. I’m not sure what kind of a sex scandal could possibly hurt her, unless it involves satanic rituals with the killing of puppies and kittens.

  • NBC/WSJ Poll: Hillary Clinton Extends Lead Over Donald Trump to 11 Points

    10/16/2016 8:20:47 AM PDT · 111 of 140
    Sooth2222 to libh8er
    "In 2012 up until election day I used to believe Romney had this."

    I did too, because of the results being published by Gallup, a firm that has been polling presidential elections successfully since 1936. They had it 49% Romney, 48% Obama. Gallup has since given up on presidential election polling.

    I would suggest that if Gallup has concluded that accurate presidential election polling can't be done in 2012 using 1936 methodology, that one should be wary of ALL polls in 2016 that are still using 1936 methodology.

  • VIDEO: CNN Lies "It's Illegal To Possess These Stolen Documents, It's Different For The Media"

    10/16/2016 4:47:24 AM PDT · 13 of 46
    Sooth2222 to NYRepublican72
    "WikiLeaks /ˈwɪkiliːks/ is an international non-profit journalistic organisation that publishes secret information, news leaks, and classified media from anonymous sources."

    CNN doesn't like what Wikileaks does, but this is journalism (reporters used to do this stuff) and Wikileaks has infinitely more credibility as a news organization than CNN.

    The CNN guy is a moron.

  • Drudge - Developing - WASH POST SUNDAY LEAD: CLINTON +4... [She is going down]”

    10/15/2016 8:10:47 PM PDT · 76 of 192
    Sooth2222 to um1990
    Found a couple of previous ABC-WaPost polls:


    9/19-21: 46-44-5-1 C+2

    9/5-8: 46-41-9-2 C+5

    I'd prefer to see T +5 but considering the carpet bombing that Trump has been taking from the MSM this week, C+4 seems surprisingly good. What will happen November 8 depends on how much Trump wants this and how much money he's willing to spend. I will crawl to the poll over broken glass to vote for Trump.

    I'm a little skeptical of live interviewer polls in this election cycle.

  • Obama Attacks Russia?

    10/15/2016 3:23:27 AM PDT · 32 of 47
    Sooth2222 to Mr. K
    Why announce it? (Or maybe Obama could tell his people to change their passwords from "password"?)

    Remember Viktor Yushchenko? I'd think if the Russians wanted to harm Obama and Hillary, they could do worse than release embarrassing e-mails.

  • ‘Please hurry,’ teen tells dispatcher after shooting sister

    10/14/2016 4:48:27 PM PDT · 14 of 38
    Sooth2222 to COBOL2Java
    I think the correct term is "negligent discharge".

    Also I thought that individuals under the age of 21 have been prohibited from purchasing handguns since 1968. Presuming that the handgun was a gift from mom and/or dad, negligent parenting if they didn't insist on a firearm safety course before making the gift.

  • White House Watch: Trump Takes the Lead

    10/13/2016 6:30:13 AM PDT · 91 of 114
    Sooth2222 to bgill
    "If they’re saying Trump is slightly in the lead, then truthfully it’s a slam dunk."

    Used to think 2-3 is outside the "margin of fraud". Now I think it would take a 10 point lead for me to feel comfortable.

    (I'm more trusting of the polls that don't require human interaction this time around. Rasmussen and LA Times would be examples. Good grief, I'm extremely open about my opinions about practically everything, and I haven't told anyone how I'm voting.)

  • White House Watch: Trump Takes the Lead

    10/13/2016 6:23:30 AM PDT · 84 of 114
    Sooth2222 to KavMan
    "Do Democrats have a 20%+ advantage in women voters? WTF?!!"

    Remember "Julia"?

    So of course! If women can't depend on a guy to do anything, they need to depend on the gov't. (To open jars, to get things off high shelves, to change their flat tires and to fight off the bears, wolves and Jihadists.) Of course the gov't sucks at doing these things even more than it sucks at managing the "No Call List".

  • USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/13 -- Trump up .3, Clinton down .2 -- TRUMP BACK IN LEAD !!!

    10/13/2016 5:34:35 AM PDT · 60 of 98
    Sooth2222 to Helicondelta
    "All 33k deleted Emails will be released by Nov 1st, probably in 4-5 sets. these emails are going to be the complete undoing of the Democratic Party." We are purposely holding them back so they cannot have time to replace Hillary."

    Early voting has already started, so it wouldn't be feasible to replace Hillary, even if the e-mails were released today. As long as she has a pulse (and even if she doesn't) she'll be on the majority of ballots on Election Day, no matter what happens. My guess either "Anonymous" is blowing smoke, or "Anonymous" doesn't realize how glacier-like the US state and local bureaucracy moves, even in the 21st Century.

    BTW, is this a clue? Democrat Party is the grammatically correct term for the "Democratic Party". The party is obviously not "democratic", just based on the e-mails regarding Bernie. I've always said "Democrat Party". I thought only Democrats called it the "Democratic Party".

    Internet smoke or Russians or Democrat disinformation?

  • Trump's Campaign Is 'Pulling Out of Virginia'

    10/13/2016 3:37:52 AM PDT · 88 of 131
    Sooth2222 to McBuff
    Re: Corey Stewart (Virginia State Chairman Donald Trump for President) firing.

    "On October 10, 2016, less than a year after his appointment and at the height of the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election, Stewart was fired by Trump from this position for organizing a demonstration in protest of the Republican National Committee outside of its national headquarters in Washington D.C. and for calling fellow Republicans "pukes""

    I can't imagine that there is anything that anyone working for the Trump campaign could call the RNC that would warrant firing. Is there more to this story?

  • Baraka calls on NJ mayors to unite around safe gun tech

    10/12/2016 5:39:17 PM PDT · 26 of 39
    Sooth2222 to Renegade
    "Slingshots are illegal in People’s Republic of Zoo Jersey"

    Pretty much everything that might be fun for a normal person to do is illegal in New Jersey.

    (I said "normal". The state only recently got around to outlawing bestiality!

  • Baraka calls on NJ mayors to unite around safe gun tech

    10/12/2016 5:35:00 PM PDT · 23 of 39
    Sooth2222 to Red in Blue PA
    I think the chance of Gaston Glock ever designing a firearm that doesn't go "Bang!" when the trigger intentionally pulled is exactly zero.

    Think of the liability!

    Newark PD has 1100 employees and probably fewer than 100% are issued sidearms -- gun manufacturers do not make big margins on LE sales. Look at the numbers. This is just a stupid, meaningless gesture. Mostly stupid.

  • Trump declares war on GOP, says ‘the shackles have been taken off’

    10/12/2016 6:28:52 AM PDT · 128 of 141
    Sooth2222 to Mariner
    1992: Clinton 43.0%, Bush 37.4%, Perot 18.9%

    1996: Clinton 49.2%, Dole 40.7%, Perot 8.4%.

    The question that's been asked for years has been, "How would Bush (Dole) have done if Perot hadn't been on the ballot?"

    How would Perot have done if Bush and Dole hadn't been on the ballots?

  • Donald Trump Has No Alternative but to Run Against Washington — All of It

    10/12/2016 6:12:31 AM PDT · 13 of 58
    Sooth2222 to LS
    "Usually these advice columns are worthless."

    "This is good advice."

    True, and Steve Bannon doesn't hide his involvement with the Trump Campaign, as the MSM does with the Clinton campaign. (While Bannon is on leave, I think Breitbart might have a better idea about what Steve Bannon wants known than Carlos Slim's blog (the NY Times) and Jeff Bezos' blog (The WaPo).)

  • White House Watch: Race Continues to Tighten

    10/12/2016 6:00:39 AM PDT · 20 of 31
    Sooth2222 to Trump20162020
    Is 43% "good"? It's better than 39% for sure, but "good"?

    (Like LA Times, Rasmussen doesn't require human interaction -- so it's likely that it eliminates "some" of the reluctance of "shy" Trump voters.)

    ("Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson remaining at seven percent (7%) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein holding steady at two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided." suggests some "shy" Trump voters in the 18%.)

  • USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/12 -- Trump down 1.3, Clinton up 1.1 -- CLINTON IN LEAD !!!

    10/12/2016 4:47:50 AM PDT · 121 of 223
    Sooth2222 to Vermont Lt
    "I think the shoes have fallen. We are nearing the dropping of diapers. Full, ripe diapers."

    I read that Steve Bannon is more involved now, and he's undoubtedly much better at throwing full diapers further than Kellyanne or even the Democrats.

    I also read that the GOP-ers were assured that Trump would drop out this past weekend (because he said "****"????) and that's why so many jumped ship.

    Trump is running against the Democrats, the eGOP AND the MSM. Can he do it? Sure. But it's going to cost him a ton of money. He needs to really, really want this.

  • USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/11 -- Trump down .5, Clinton up .6

    10/11/2016 7:20:07 AM PDT · 52 of 64
    Sooth2222 to Ancesthntr
    "This poll is an average of results over a one week period of time. The post-debate portion of this is only one of those seven days, whereas there are two days that are after the release of the video tape. This poll will not significantly reflect the events of Friday and Sunday until at least Thursday morning. Don’t be too concerned."

    Exactly. It's a rolling average.

    I wouldn't be too concerned until 7 days (evenings) post-debate. That would be NEXT Tuesday. Volatility should be expected, considering the events. (Of course that's if nothing new happens -- involving Clinton, Trump or the rest of The Universe. The chances of that are probably about 0.)

  • The first post-hot mic poll is out, and it suggests that Donald Trump is in deep, deep trouble

    10/10/2016 5:36:28 PM PDT · 52 of 85
    Sooth2222 to aquila48
    "Aftwr the second debate, this is ancient history."

    Pretty much.

    Pollster (young, female voice): "Trump said something really, really awful. He said "*****". Are you going to vote for him?" Polled: "Trump who?"

    I would take any poll that includes in its sample any data obtained prior to this evening with several pounds of salt.

  • Debate dredges up Clinton's defense of accused rapist, audio of her ‘laughing’ at (TRUNC)

    10/10/2016 4:34:20 PM PDT · 14 of 60
    Sooth2222 to Mean Daddy
    I think former PA governor Tom Corbett demonstrated that having one's fingerprints anywhere on a child rape case is incompatible with a long and successful political career. Even if everything is done to put the perp away.

    Sandusky is in prison, until age 98 at least, and I'm certain that Corbett was never recorded laughing about it.

    Clinto has demonstrated that she's a total and complete sleaze over the years, so I have little doubt that she could have squirmed out of it if she wanted to. (Or have done as poor a job as she did following the Espionage Act of 1917 and gotten Thomas Alfred Taylor hanged.)

  • Kellyanne Conway accuses congressmen of lewd behavior

    10/10/2016 3:18:58 PM PDT · 11 of 64
    Sooth2222 to Kaslin

    Strangely, of this bunch, the only one in prison now (AFAIK) is Hastert. (They all deserve to be in prison!)

  • Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread 9 October 2016

    10/09/2016 11:01:39 AM PDT · 263 of 328
    Sooth2222 to ConservaTeen
    "I hope Conway is not going to bail..."

    She just surfaced on Twitter after a couple of day's absence. Hopefully, she was playing Hillary in debate practice. Hopefully, The Donald has practiced for this one. Hopefully.

  • Defiant Trump seizes on Clinton sex scandal before debate

    10/09/2016 9:32:06 AM PDT · 10 of 45
    Sooth2222 to Olog-hai
    "Never proved"?

    Would Bill n' Hill send me a check for $850,000?

  • Will Trump Make a Race of It in the Debates?

    10/09/2016 4:48:30 AM PDT · 15 of 30
    Sooth2222 to Kaslin
    As Scott Adams wrote, Trump doesn't need to outrun the bear, he just needs to outrun the other camper. In Hillary's case that shouldn't be too difficult since she can hardly walk.

    A reality TV star should do well with tonight's debate format. Here's hoping that Hillary had one Hell of a bender last night in celebration of the release of Trump's cat tape, and doesn't.