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Posts by spetznaz

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  • Arab anti-terror quartet extends Qatar boycott as Doha rejects demands

    07/06/2017 9:17:44 PM PDT · 6 of 7
    spetznaz to TigerLikesRooster
    To be honest I'm having a bit of a chuckle at Saudi Arabia pointing the finger at another country for supporting terrorism. Seriously though, if Saudia Arabia is the real leading supporter of terrorism, Qatar would be a close second, followed by Pakistan and then Iran (which is the world's leading supporter of Shia terrorism, but with the likes of Saudi Arabia being the world's leading supporter - period - with their indirect support of all sort of Sunni terror groups like Al Qaeda, ISIS, Al Shabaab, Boko Haram, Abu Sayyaf, etc).

    It's nice to see the two leading supporters of global terror groups get into a tussle.

    I believe though all of this stems from Qatar not bowing before Saudi Arabia. Independence, even sovereign independence, is not something that is looked at fondly in the region. And Qatar has been really flexing its diplomatic and financial muscle. I was in Doha a month ago, and the infrastructure development is staggering. Can be almost be compared to Dubai, and is way ahead of anything in Riyadh. Add to that Al Jazeera, which has a viewership that is greater than all the other regional channels - combined, and then add Qatar's relationship with Iran.

    Anyway, the only 'good' Arab country in that region is maybe Kuwait. At least they allow churches to be built there.

  • U.S. Tells North Korea It Is Prepared to Go to War

    07/06/2017 12:58:52 AM PDT · 54 of 56
    spetznaz to Mariner; Cobra64
    Please identify the artillery with such range.

    I had already identified the main artillery that could reach out and touch Seoul in my previous post, namely the Koksan self-propelled gun. The article you posted to me (stating that NK cannot flatten Seoul) actually identifies another ...the M-1985 rocket launcher, so those are two identified by your article that can reach Seoul.

    What I like about FR is that people can debate an issue at will and using logic (unlike other places where things quickly deteriorate), so let me give a proper response. Also, apologies for my sarcasm in my initial post where I kept referencing 'lies.' That was unnecessary.

    On the article you sent - they make salient points, but they miss the main point. It is not about 'flattening Seoul' (even Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not 'flattened' entirely), but rather the ability to wreak astounding damage in the time before sufficient action can be taken to silence the guns. The article - if I use its worst case scenario where they assume of the 13,000 guns only 700 can reach Seoul, where they assume only 2/3rds of those 700 will work, and where 25% of shells/rockets fired fail to detonate on impact. Even with that, the article you posted estimates that there will be 2,700 shells/rockets hitting Seoul per minute, resulting in 2,800 dead per minute.

    That is almost the same number as people killed in 9/11 ...per minute, and that is using the article's scenario where things are not working well. First day losses according to that article is 64,000 dead. Note though that the article is looking at explosive shells. South Korean military planning expects that a number of incoming artillery will have poison gas, meaning that the number of dead could be much higher than that.

    Anyway, while I agree that North Korea will not 'flatten' Seoul, it will definitely be able to do enough damage to make it a theoretical discussion.

    What is more important though is the need for the world to do something. Every five years that pass reveal significant advancements by Pyongyang. Their offensive capabilities will continue to develop, and the number of lives they can 'touch' will continue to increase. Something will need to be done, otherwise what will happen is that in the future it will just be a more difficult situation to deal with. Eventually either the Kim dynasty will need to be removed, or there will be a reawakening of war with North Korea (a restart since it never really ended). It will happen ...the question is does it get done five years ago, now, or five years from now? Five years ago is impossible, so the decision is between now or the future.

    It will be significantly more difficult in the future.

  • U.S. Tells North Korea It Is Prepared to Go to War

    07/05/2017 12:52:52 PM PDT · 20 of 56
    spetznaz to Cobra64
    There are means of taking them out - ranging from effective counter-artillery barrages to tactical nuclear weapons. What the NK believe though is that either the West/SK knows that they couldn't eliminate the artillery before Seoul was already ravaged, or that the West wouldn't use nuclear weapons. That's why for decades nothing has been done to NK ...apart from useless sanctions.

    However, POTUS Trunp is a different flavor of President from the weaklings that have held the seat before, and Kim may have decided to play a game of chance against the one person he shouldn't have played against. POTUS Trump is different enough to show Kim a few tricks that NK will not like.

  • U.S. Tells North Korea It Is Prepared to Go to War

    07/05/2017 12:49:04 PM PDT · 19 of 56
    spetznaz to Mariner
    It must be a very convincing 'lie' since even the US military believes it. Quite the convincing lie, to the extent that Seoul conducts anti-artillery barrage exercises.

    I also assume that the Koksan self-propelled artillery, which NK has, does not exist since there is no gun with the range to hit Seoul.

    Anyway, since it is an obvious lie I am assuming that we will see a massive attack on Pyongyang any moment now. After all, the biggest ace North Korea has - its artillery - is a lie, right? That's why all the nations around it bend over backwards to placate the three fat oafs that have ruled North Korea ...a lie.

    As for your last point - trading Seattle for Seoul. That's a real question, and the answer is simple. It's not even about trading one for the other. It's the simple fact that the best time to have stopped NK was decades ago, but because that wasn't done, the best time to stop NK is NOW. More time only makes their capabilities (even the ones some consider to be 'lies') to become more effective. It will cost lives, and may even cost Seoul to be honest (and yes, I am one of those who believe the 'lie' that NK can annihilate a good part of Seoul), but the fact is that if nothing is done NOW that in the FUTURE it will be the cities of Tokyo and Seattle that get used as basically city-wide hostages.

    The choice is simple - lose big now, or lose bigger later.

  • 10 reasons why the Indian Rafale is evolution itself

    07/05/2017 1:38:14 AM PDT · 5 of 5
    spetznaz to AnotherUnixGeek
    My understanding is that we've offered the F-16 to India as well - upgraded and more capable than the versions Pakistan has, and certainly cheaper than the Rafale. I don't know why India is so reluctant to enter into a deeper military alliance with US, but they aren't helping themselves

    India has actually purchased a lot of weaponry from the US, and is currently one of the largest purchaser of US arms outside the Middle East. These include a $3.1 billion order for Apache attack helicopters and Chinook transport/carry helicopters, a $750 million deal for howitzers (145 of them I believe), not to mention $10 billion of orders ranging from Poseidon anti-submarine planes to C-17s and C-130s.

    I would say that India has not been reluctant at all to enter into a deeper military alliance with the US, and it is only set to become deeper going forward.

    What they have not done, and remain unlikely to do, is to make the US their sole (or near-sole) source for military arms. The reason for this is three-fold:

    (i) at the simplest level, a history of the US withholding support in the event of Indian action not supported by Washington. This has happened to Pakistan, one of the reasons why Islamabad has been diversifying acquisitions from the US to Beijing, and just last week US Senators supported withholding arms sales to the GCC over the Qatari-Saudi/UAE mess. Such incidences go back decades, for example the decision of France - then Israel's largest arms supplier - to suddenly declare an arms embargo on Israeli just as the 6-day war was commencing. Not something that was taken well by the Israelis. By having diversified sources of arms, it ensures that there is greater flexibility should an event arise that is not supported by one party or the other.

    (ii) Getting the best equipment for India. A good example of this is comparing the Rafale with the F-16. The F-16 is one of the best, if not THE best, multi-role fighter in the world. However, the Rafale is simply better one-on-one. It is newer, has newer technologies (the Spectra suite by itself is worth the cost of admission), and has greater potential for future evolutions (the Block 70 Viper is basically the ultimate a F-16 can become, if one ignores the crazy winged 1980s cranked-delta F-16XL and other F-16 variants that were stillborn and meant to compete with what became the F-15E). India has selected French fighters, advanced SAM systems and anti-tank missiles from Israel, self-propelled guns and naval mine-sweepers from South Korea, and naval corvettes and anti-ship missiles from Russia. Each making sense for India, and arguably being the best they could get. As an example, India has leased one Akula nuclear-powered submarine that is supposed to be roughly equivalent to later-model USN Los Angeles submarines. They are trying to lease two more. While these submarines are not comparable to USN Virginia or Sea Wolf submarines, they still provide India with an ability they would be hard pressed to find elsewhere. For example, the US would never lease/sell even a first generation Los Angeles SSN to India (or for that matter, even Australia probably would not have been able to swing that, even though the French are selling them a conventionally-powered version of the most advanced French SSN, the Barracuda).

    (iii) Finally, I just do not see India taking a plane that Pakistan has had for decades. No matter how 'advanced.'

    With that said, the US and India will continue to get closer. Also, the F/A-18E/F SuperHornet still has a good chance (and would be a GREAT buy) for India ...although India definitely has too many different types of planes. There is also serious talk of the F-16 production line being shifted to India, which would make India the producer of the most sought-after legacy multi-role plane in the world, at a time where many countries that were using F-5s and such need to upgrade to newer planes.

    So, who knows. But the point is that India has gotten waist deep into a deep military alliance with the US, and will continue to do so going forward. Apologies for the long post.

  • North Korea says U.S. student's death a "mystery to us as well"

    06/23/2017 4:38:10 AM PDT · 13 of 33
    spetznaz to Gargantua

    You’re good. :)

  • Canadian elite special forces sniper makes record-breaking kill shot in Iraq

    06/22/2017 5:44:06 AM PDT · 46 of 58
    spetznaz to billyboy15
    100%.

    All in all probably a merciful way to go for the terrorist. Literally just went to sleep.

  • Canadian elite special forces sniper makes record-breaking kill shot in Iraq

    06/22/2017 1:57:16 AM PDT · 26 of 58
    spetznaz to billyboy15

    Probably more like splat >> crack (as the sound wave catches up with the bullet)

  • Russia Warns It Will Treat US-Led Coalition Jets In Syria As Targets

    06/19/2017 6:44:50 AM PDT · 10 of 20
    spetznaz to Enlightened1
    Russia would never - I repeat, never - target a USAF asset (that is not a drone) in Syria. Sure, Russia is not as weak as many here try to make the country appear. It is obviously a major nuclear power, and its conventional forces have proven recently to be better than many would have given them credit for (e.g. their small naval corvettes have been very interesting). However, it is not able to engage with the US in a conventional war, its impact in an Iran-like covert war (e.g. how Iran was teaching Iraqi insurgents to make effective explosively-formed projectile IEDs that could take out a tank) would be highly ineffective in Syria considering how there are no (non spec-ops) US ground troops in Syria, and finally a nuclear escalation would just be as damaging to Russia as it would be to the US, and is thus not an option due to planes being shot down.

    This is all bluster - yes, there is real anger, but the outcome of that anger is basically the statement that it will target coalition jets.

    Russia is more powerful than many make it seem, but it is still considerably weaker than the US is. Considerably. It is not even a leopard to the US' lion. It is more like a large aggressive bobcat to the US' African lion. The mistake most make is they make it seem like some tired old house cat, or go to the other extreme and make it into a tiger. When the truth is that it's more of a large aggressive bobcat. Definitely able to mess your day in a variety of interesting ways, but not able to waltz your it's superiors and act gnarly.

  • Smug Bill Cosby waves and saunters into court as the jury asks judge 'what is reasonable doubt'

    06/17/2017 5:18:25 AM PDT · 51 of 51
    spetznaz to odawg
    In your world, rape could very well be a perfect crime when no evidence is left at the scene, although the woman can identify her attacker.

    If you permit me to use that last example, what's to stop a woman from accusing you of rape? She identities someone as her attacker, no evidence. Based on her word the person should be incarcerated? I seem to remember several cases where a man is accused of rape, and it is found out the whole thing was a lie (or mistaken identity).

    It is also not about CSI, and I don't watch the show. It is about the burden of proof for a criminal case (beyond a reasonable doubt) and the burden of proof for a civil case (preponderance of evidence). In the former, the prosecution has to a significantly higher burden of proof. In the latter, all they need to show is a 51% likelihood.

    Anyway, let's see how this turns out. The jury may very well convict him. But the fact that they are asking what 'reasonable doubt' means probably shows that there are some weak spots in the case. And I say this as someone who fully believes that even though some of the women may not be telling the truth, at least several are. Unfortunately, the current legal system relies on evidence not hearsay, and whether the hearsay is true or not it unfortunately may not be enough

  • Smug Bill Cosby waves and saunters into court as the jury asks judge 'what is reasonable doubt'

    06/17/2017 2:35:37 AM PDT · 49 of 51
    spetznaz to odawg
    I don't know whether you were serious or that was tongue in cheek, but the answer is no. It does not mean much. Now, if the accused is some poor average person who doesn't have access to top-notch legal representation, then it may lead to their incarceration. However, someone with the funds to hire lawyers who know what they are doing MAY be able to waltz off if all the evidence is 'sworn testimony' from people. That becomes a he said/she said type of case, and while that may work in a civil case it should not work in a criminal case.

    I personally believe that Bill Cosby probably did rape several women. However, if I were a juror in that case I would be asking for evidence. Unfortunately, considering when it happened and the fact that the women (the real victims as I think some of them are fake) are only coming out now, it is unlikely there is any evidence. Unfortunate since I THINK that Cosby is guilty of at least some/many of those allegations, and it only takes one of them for him to be guilty. However, as a juror I would be basing my decision on evidence rather than what I think, and it would be up to the prosecution to put forth a compelling case that proves his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. If they are unable to do that, I would unfortunately have to let a man I consider guilty free. In a civil case however, the judge would only have to deal with a preponderance of evidence, and Cosby could be found guilty on day one.

  • Smug Bill Cosby waves and saunters into court as the jury asks judge 'what is reasonable doubt'

    06/16/2017 9:28:05 AM PDT · 9 of 51
    spetznaz to heterosupremacist
    I'm not a lawyer, but I believe the burden of proof for a criminal case (like this one) is beyond all reasonable doubt, while the burden of proof for a civil case is be (far) simpler preponderance of evidence.

    This case MAY not meet the requirements for a criminal case, but were it a civil case it would have been open and shut.

  • Boeing, Dassault racing for Rs 50,000-cr Navy deal for 57 fighter jets (India)

    06/09/2017 10:10:20 PM PDT · 3 of 16
    spetznaz to sukhoi-30mki

    Can a Super Hornet take off from a ramp with a combat load?

  • Send the SAS

    06/04/2017 3:33:27 AM PDT · 14 of 30
    spetznaz to pboyington
    Two points:

    1. The SAS, as well as its often forgotten sister unit (more on that later,, the SBS, are not only deployed during a terrorist attack, but they also rotate units with one unit tasked with anti-terrorist duties. They are always there, and this has been the case since at least the 1990s (for Islamic terror issues) and the 70s (for IRA related issues). No need to send the SAS as they have already been sent, and have been for decades. As for the SBS ...the closest American unit to the SAS is Delta Force (which was copied after the SAS, to the point of having British military terminology for unit sizes for example). The closest American unit to the SBS is DEVGRU (SEALTeam Six), but the interesting thing about the SBS is relatively few know of them. Even in the media there are SBS missions that have even been attributed to the SAS. Needless to say there is a lot of professions rivalry between the two teams (at least mostly professional - some years back both had been told to lay off after some members from each group stared saying unfortunate things about the other), both are highly capable, and each thinks it's the best.

    2. The issue for the UK, and developed Europe in general, is they have a large domestic radicalized Islamic element within their borders. This is something that, say, the US does not have. That domestic element is a real issue for them, and the high level of political correctness in developed Europe does not help things at all.

  • Hillary Claims She Lost Election Because Trump 'Colluded With 1,000 Russian Agents'

    06/01/2017 8:52:49 PM PDT · 64 of 116
    spetznaz to Helicondelta

    She’s definitely losing it

  • France’s Special Forces Hunt French Militants Fighting for Islamic State

    05/30/2017 8:01:04 AM PDT · 3 of 11
    spetznaz to DUMBGRUNT

    Exactly. French special forces are the real deal - whether you’re talking about military or police.

  • Sub-optimal? Australia’s future submarine charts rocky course

    05/29/2017 12:29:52 AM PDT · 4 of 8
    spetznaz to sukhoi-30mki
    A tad difficult to separate truth from half-truth from fallacy. The Aussie submarine program has had a lot of leaked information and media stories that appear to be quite slanted. After all, we saw reports stating that the Goryu Class (the proposed Australian version of the Japanese Soryu) offered even less capability than the hobbled Collins Class. As for the Germans, their 216 design would have been larger than their current designs (and it can be debated whether the risk of making a current design larger is similar to making a current design smaller in the case of the Shortfin).

    Anyway, a lot of articles with several seeming to have one agenda or another. Personally I want Australia to have the best possible. Some claim that would be an updated Los Angeles class, but the logistics of having a nuclear submarine are not that simple (and if they were to get one, they would have gone for the normal nuclear Barracuda since it would have been easier to get that than the LA, and definitely the Virginia ...with the Barracuda sitting somewhere between the LA and Virginia, making it a good vessel).

    Anyway, I am sure the Aussies know what they are doing. After all, they have the data for the three final competitors and they went for the Shortfin.

  • Iran 'willing to work towards peace' with Arab neighbors

    05/27/2017 3:05:11 PM PDT · 11 of 17
    spetznaz to Colonel Kangaroo
    I fully agree.

    To be honest with you, that is the ONE thing that has never made any sense to me. The obsession with Iran that exists within many circles in the US, and one of the few things that Republicans and Dmeocrats seem to agree on. That Iran is evil.

    But that's not the thing that perplexes me, because Iran IS led by an evil regime.

    What is confounding is the utter disregard of the REAL Islamic threat, which is Sunni Islam. Iran is Shia, while most of the Moslem world (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Somalia, you name it) is Sunni.

    Now, Iran is a state sponsor of terror, with Hezbollah being a key group supported by Tehran. Hezbollah is a legitimate terror group, and has led to the death of many (including Americans and Israelis). No doubt about that.

    But let's look at Sunni Islam. Their terror groups include Al Qaeda (which killed thousands of Americans on a certain day that will never be forgotten), Islamic State (with ISIS making Al Qaeda seem pale), Al Nusra, Boko Haram (whose brutality is only beaten by ISIS), Islamic Courts, Jemaah Islamiya (which has killed many in Indonesia), Al Shabaab (which killed dozens of civilians in my home country), the Muslim Brotherhood, Abu Sayyaf (which has led to the Filipino government declaring martial law a couple days ago), etc etc etc. A long list of Sunni terror groups that make Shia based groups look like pikers. And all supported by the governments of Saudi Arabia (which is the REAL 'largest state sponsor of terror Iran, not Iran), Qatar (before ISIS took over territory and oil fields in Iraq, they were primarily supported by Qataris making donations at bazaars where they would 'buy' bullets and guns via donation for 'freedom fighters'), and Pakistan (which has not only supported terror groups that attack countries like India, but is the world's greatest proliferator of nuclear know-how through the AQ Khan network ...Google him).

    Yet everyone looks at Iran, which though evil is nowhere close to a nation like Saudi Arabia. I know the reason is oil (there was a time messing with the Saudis would have caused wide scale oil disruption), but isn't that time over?

    Anyway ...anytime you hear an American (or for that matter, anyone) got killed, you can bet your money that it is almost certainly a Sunni jihadi group.

  • If Trump is innocent of collusion with Russia, what happens to the media?

    05/26/2017 4:28:31 AM PDT · 21 of 41
    spetznaz to 2ndDivisionVet

    What happens? They continue digging until they find something. Dig hard enough, and for long enough, and you’ll eventually find something on anyone. Not to mention that there are several bad actors that may be willing to leak information from within, or create falsehoods. Trump is a strong man, but I think the presidency will affect his health. Which is why he should steam full speed ahead anyway.

  • Chelsea Handler: Melania Would Be 'American Hero' If She Divorced Trump

    05/22/2017 4:17:15 PM PDT · 39 of 53
    spetznaz to Aria

    It unfortunately did happen, but the thing is we don’t know context. Without that it is very difficult to decipher exactly what that was about. Thus the media are making a lot out of what may be very little