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Posts by TroutGuy

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  • Report: GOP to Propose “Populist” Tax Cut

    09/26/2017 1:34:21 PM PDT · 6 of 82
    TroutGuy to Kaslin

    Remind me again why the rich need a tax cut at all? They seem to have done quite well, relative to use working class guys, in the last several decades.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 2:06:13 PM PDT · 47 of 58
    TroutGuy to TXnMA

    Yes, with the caveat that there are certain areas within the affected area which receive more or less than you would expect. For example, an area north of detonation will see almost no effect and a horseshoe-shaped area south of detonation will see the greatest effect. It has to do with interaction with the earth’s magnetism.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 1:06:44 PM PDT · 40 of 58
    TroutGuy to Freedom56v2

    Also, I just noticed that this Dr. Bradley guy you rely on is associated with He wants to scare you to sell you stuff.

    He’s precisely the kind of guy whose opinion you should throw into the trash can.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 1:02:04 PM PDT · 37 of 58
    TroutGuy to Freedom56v2

    “EMP is a “Line of Sight” theory if detonated at couple hundred miles up above source region, could take out 70%”

    70% of what? The United States? Not even close.

    And the North Korean article talks about 100 km as being the maximum altitude they contemplate for their EMP bombs. Could be misinformation but I doubt.

    And the most damaging Soviet test was at 290 km altitude with a 300 kt weapon- i.e. more powerful than the one the North Koreans tested.

    The doomsayers on this issue have simply got to deal with the reality that very large devices have been tested over populated areas with very large weapons in the 1960s. And life went on pretty much as normal before. Yes, we’re more vulnerable to E1 pulse now because of all our computers, but this “we’ll be back to the stone age” talk is utter nonsense.

    Hawaii and Kazhakstan weren’t sent back to the stone age and neither will we.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 12:39:04 PM PDT · 30 of 58
    TroutGuy to RayChuang88

    “However, the secondary EMP effects proved much stronger than anticipated, and it blew out over 1,000 km of shallow-buried power lines and caused the power plant at Karaganda—the one nearest to the point of the high altitude detonation—to literally catch on fire.”

    With power stations, it’s all about the large transformers that take years to replace. If those are not dealt irreparable damage, then the other stuff can and will be repaired in fairly short order. Large transformers were not destroyed in either Kazhakstan or Hawaii, which is a very hopeful sign.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 12:35:45 PM PDT · 29 of 58
    TroutGuy to loungitude

    “1km or 1120km radius? Please clarify.”

    The latter, in the case of a detonation 100km from the surface. It’s simply a function of line of sight to the ground.

    Now, what the effects in that area is the question, and both Hawaii and Kakhakstan were in the range of the 1960s tests and there were no severe power station failures there.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 12:33:05 PM PDT · 27 of 58
    TroutGuy to Pearls Before Swine

    “Device immunity may be much different. I can tell you that even at the commercial level, EMC hardening must have a major protective effect against EMP. Hardening equipment to electrostatic discharge (ESD), and to various other radiated and powerline conducted electromagnetic insults is mandated by various international standards and is common practice.”

    Devices are affected by the E1 pulse, which, unlike the E3 pulse, doesn’t penetrate the ground. So it’s possible that buildings will shield computers to some degree from the E1 pulse.

    Also, a very interesting feature of one of the Soviet tests was that the E1 pulse from a two-stage (i.e. hydrogen) bomb was surprisingly low:

    “Interestingly, different sources concur that prompt peak E1 component of this 300-kiloton Soviet test was not excessive: between 5 kV/m and 10 kV/m. This is likely a result of the pre-ionization effect in two-stage weapons [16].”

    Hydrogen bombs work in two stages, with the normal atomic detonation causing a second fusion reaction. The Soviet test suggests that, in the case of hydrogen bombs, the first stage pre-ionizes the atmosphere and ruins the ability of the second fusion detonation to cause a large EMP.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 12:19:30 PM PDT · 16 of 58
    TroutGuy to ctdonath2

    “Even such a ‘limited’ EMP impact would be devastating.”

    I agree. But in this context you have to define what you mean by “devastating.” There’s some hype studies out there that talk about 90% of the US population being killed, which is utterly ridiculous.

    Maybe an EMP over the northeast would fry most computers in a 700-1000 km area. That’s not proven, but maybe that would occur. Still, that would leave buildings, roads, bridges, etc intact, and the world would not doubt rush in a lot of replacement computers to protect the US economy.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 12:14:10 PM PDT · 15 of 58
    TroutGuy to RayChuang88

    “I think the Norks are aware of the Soviet Project K EMP tests done in October 1962. The Russians actually found out far more about the effects from EMP from those tests than the American Starfish Prime test, because the Russians actually built a test range with both above and below-ground power lines and detonated a 300 KT nuclear bomb over it at an altitude around 160 KM (99 miles). The EMP resulted in blowing out of every protection fuse system on those electrical lines and even shut down a nearby electrical generation plant.”

    Correct. But that’s really pretty moderate damage. I mean, you don’t recall reading about power failures lasting years in Kazhakstan, do you?

    Power plants are damaged by the E3 pulse, which is similar to that caused by solar storms. There’s just no empirical data suggesting that the E3 pulse, will inflict irreparable damage on large power station transformers, and there’s a good bit of evidence (i.e. the Hawaii and Kakhak tests) suggesting that they won’t.

    Also, peak E3 pulse intensity takes about 20 seconds, which would give a power station operator (who would have no doubt heard about an incoming NK attack) some time to react.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 12:10:16 PM PDT · 11 of 58
    TroutGuy to Chainmail

    “Every single bit of modern electronics would potentially be damaged: all TVs, radios, car and truck ignition systems, telephones, and pretty well everything else.”

    This article notes minor damage to automobiles in testing:

    Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control scholar, wrote in Foreign Policy in 2013, “(the) EMP Commission exposed 37 cars and 18 trucks to EMP effects in a laboratory environment. While EMP advocates claim the results of an EMP attack would be “planes falling from the sky, cars stalling on the roadways, electrical networks failing, food rotting,” the actual results were much more modest. Of the 55 vehicles exposed to EMP, six at the highest levels of exposure needed to be restarted. A few more showed “nuisance” damage to electronics, such as blinking dashboard displays.”

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 12:00:17 PM PDT · 7 of 58
    TroutGuy to DoughtyOne

    You have to look hard to separate the hype from reality on this issue. Here’s a good article by a Harvard astrophysicist.

    I’ve read several other reliable articles.

    Now, don’t get me wrong- an EMP detonated over the northeast might be devastating to our economy. But how devastating really depend on how the large power station transformers survive. Like I said, they survived ok in Hawaii and Kazhakstan, and (unlike computers) the basic transformer technology hasn’t changed that much since the 60s.

    I think it’s likely that a whole bunch of computers would get fried in the affected area, but you can send in new computers pretty rapidly. It’s the power station transformers which will decide how devastating it is, long-term. At any rate, at the very worst this would only affect a 1k kilomoter radius area of the US. There might be cascading power failures outside of that area, but not resulting in any permanent damage outside the affected area.

  • North Korea Nuke Tests Further EMP Bomb

    09/06/2017 11:51:36 AM PDT · 1 of 58
    I've looked into the EMP thread and think it's a little overblown. For one thing, a detonation at 100km would expose a circular region of radius 1,120 kilometers on the earth’s surface to the pulse. That would only cover a limited portion of the US, and they couldn't "blanket" the US with EMP bombs because the first one they detonate would pre-ionize the atmosphere and prevent another effective EMP for up to an hour.

    Also, it's simply not known how severe the damage to large power station transformers would be. That's the most serious concern since those transformers are custom built for power plants and take on average 4 years to rebuild. Very powerful EMPs were tested near Kakzhastan and Hawaii in the early 60s, and there was no significant damage to power stations in Hawaii and only moderate and temporary damage in Kazhakstan.

  • White House Statement on North Korea

    09/03/2017 1:11:08 PM PDT · 60 of 209
    TroutGuy to Rusty0604

    Maybe, but Mattis didn’t announce anything of a real and concrete nature. No additional deployments to the region, no evacuation of US civilians from SK, etc. Those are things that would be done if we were seriously considering military options.

  • White House Statement on North Korea

    09/03/2017 1:09:28 PM PDT · 57 of 209
    TroutGuy to SamAdams76

    I read it as we won’t do anything militarily unless he actually attacks. In other words, we won’t do anything militarily while North Korea spends the coming years building up a huge nuclear arsenal.

    So that’s that I suppose. Pretty disappointing- I would prefer we bite the bullet now and get rid of this regime, whatever the cost. But that doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

  • Taiwan stitches together F-35 request

    08/18/2017 11:38:52 AM PDT · 8 of 15
    TroutGuy to sukhoi-30mki

    Sounds like a good North Korea/China bargaining chip. All other issues in east Asia pale in comparison to stopping a nutjob from nuking a bunch of our cities.

  • Steve Bannon out as President Trump’s chief strategist

    08/18/2017 10:43:10 AM PDT · 56 of 100
    TroutGuy to 2ndDivisionVet

    In his recent interview, Bannon basically said Trump was bluffing when he talked tough to North Korea. Trump may, in fact, have been bluffing, but if you’re playing a high stakes card game and you decide to bluff, you really don’t need your buddy looking over your shoulder telling everyone “his cards are crap- he’s bluffing.” That’s basically what Bannon did, so I can see why Trump removed him.

  • Trump: 'I'm not going to rule out a military option' in Venezuela

    08/11/2017 6:37:28 PM PDT · 22 of 48
    TroutGuy to 2ndDivisionVet

    I’m sorry, but this is very disturbing to me. I’m on board for confronting North Korea, but it may turn out to be even bloodier than Vietnam before all is said and done.

    And to hear Trump just pull this Venezuelan thing out of complete left field (NO ONE was talking about invading it), on the same day he was talking of attacking North Korea, makes it look like he’s just itching for a fight wherever.

    Plus, didn’t he campaign against using the military for nation building? Venezuelans made their own bed by choosing socialism- let them sleep in it.

    For me, this is easily the most troubling thing Trump has said since he became president.

  • Here’s how to take out North Korea’s nukes

    08/10/2017 11:42:56 AM PDT · 16 of 57
    TroutGuy to WayneLusvardi

    “Let’s just cooperate with South Korea’s plan to deal with NK.”

    Appeasement? Burying our head in the sand? We’ve tried that plan for the last 20 years.

    The hard truth is that US and South Korean interests now diverge with North Korea. South Korea doesn’t really care if NK has ICBMs that can reach the US, but we sure as hell do.

  • Guam independence advocates say North Korea and Trump are making their case

    08/10/2017 11:39:48 AM PDT · 4 of 26
    TroutGuy to deplorableindc

    Guam should be very well protected from NK missiles by both US and Japanese Aegis destroyers, and the full-time THAAD battery on Guam itself. It’s a LOT easier to shoot down an intermediate-range missile than an ICBM. THAAD has a very high success rate.

  • Here’s how to take out North Korea’s nukes

    08/10/2017 11:35:08 AM PDT · 7 of 57
    TroutGuy to mazda77

    Seoul can’t be protected, but by all indications (e.g. Lyndsey Graham’s statements after discussing it with Trump) Trump knows he was elected to advance US interests, not South Korean.

    I expect Trump to attack with heavy bombers from Guam and US ships in international waters. We don’t need South Korea’s permission to protect our homeland from NK nukes.