That 4.2 million looks like “new” Medicaid plus the 26 year old “kids” who qualify for inclusion on their parent’s policies.
Here in Washington state, our reporting agency breaks the Medicaid number down into three parts.
I’ll guess the same Medicaid procedure is followed nationally:
(1) Medicaid Renewals
(2) Previously Eligible - First Time Applicants
(3) Now Eligible Because Of New Medicaid Rules
The Internet application form for paid policies has no check off box for “Previously Not Insured.”
As far as I know, it is impossible to determine that number using the data they have.
The author gets one thing absolutely right:
Almost no healthy kids will apply for insurance unless it is free!