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"Extend tax cuts for all income levels and do nothing else," said Sean Snaith, economics professor at the University of Central Florida. "More of the same piecemeal, patchwork policies put forth by this administration will undermine confidence and do little to change the path the economy is on." But economists surveyed were in broad agreement that the recovery is still too fragile to allow taxes to go up for the 97% of taxpayers not in the top brackets. "If those tax cuts expire for everybody, we go into a double-dip recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. Zandi...

One of the key economists who helped presidential candidate Herman Cain draft his 9-9-9 tax plan is backing away from the most controversial component of it, warning that the criticism Cain endured at Tuesday night's Republican presidential debate shows his proposed 9 percent national sales tax might have to go. "It was such a dart board," economist Stephen Moore said Wednesday of the proposal. Cain weathered a storm of complaints over his tax plan at the Republican debate in Las Vegas. Virtually every candidate took turns accusing the businessman of pushing a scheme that would introduce new streams of revenue...

Art Laffer, a former member of Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board and the man who created the Laffer Curve, has now come out and endorsed Herman Cain’s 999 plan, saying that it will undoubtedly be a huge boon to economic growth. This is very good news for Herman Cain: HUMAN EVENTS – Famed supply-side economist Art Laffer​ told HUMAN EVENTS that Cain’s “9-9-9″ plan was a pro-growth plan that would create the proper conditions for America’s economy to grow and thrive again. “Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan would be a vast improvement over the current tax system and a boon to...

As businessman Herman Cain surges atop state and national polls and becomes a top-tier presidential contender, his signature "9-9-9" plan, which calls for a nine percent tax on income, a nine percent national sales tax, and a nine percent corporate income tax, has come under scrutiny from the right and the left. Famed supply-side economist Art Laffer told HUMAN EVENTS that Cain's "9-9-9" plan was a pro-growth plan that would create the proper conditions for America's economy to grow and thrive again. "Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan would be a vast improvement over the current tax system and a boon to...

The projection of 1.9 million new jobs, a 1 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate and a 2 percentage point increase in the gross domestic product under Obama's plan came from Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "I assumed that it would be paid for," Zandi said. "I didn't know when I did that simulation how the president proposed to pay for it." Zandi said his job-creation figure only applies to 2012. "Beginning in 2013, and certainly into 2014, the plan is a drag on the economy because the stimulus starts fading away," he said. "So by 2015,...

Mankind missed a bet 2,000 years ago when no one thought to invest $100 or its equivalent in Roman coin in a certificate of deposit compounding at 2% a year forever. The principal balance today of this ungifted benefaction would come to the astounding sum of $15,861,473,276,036,900,000. That would be $2.3 billion, before tax, for every man, woman and child on earth. But the ancients bungled, perpetuating the problem of scarcity and leaving the way open for Sylvia Nasar to write her "Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius," a survey of economic thought from Charles Dickens to Paul Samuelson...

Black Unemployment: Highest In 27 Years By Annalyn Censky September 2, 2011 The unemployment rate for blacks surged to 16.7% in August, its highest rate since 1984, the Labor Department reported Friday. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The August jobs report was dismal for plenty of reasons, but perhaps most striking was the picture it painted of racial inequality in the job market. Black unemployment surged to 16.7% in August, its highest level since 1984, while the unemployment rate for whites fell slightly to 8%, the Labor Department reported. "This month's numbers continue to bear out that longstanding pattern that minorities...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Economists have become less optimistic about the U.S. growth outlook but slightly more upbeat about the job market, though employment is still seen recovering only slowly from a deep slump. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's second-quarter survey of forecasters showed a median growth forecast of 3.2 percent for the current quarter, down from estimates for a 3.5 percent increase in the poll taken in the first quarter. The U.S. unemployment rate is now forecast at 8.9 percent for the second quarter, down from the previous forecast of 9.2 percent, according to the survey. The jobless rate was still...

Members of Congress and economists to submit arguments in states' suit against health law15. November 2010 04:23 Bloomberg: "Eight U.S. senators, along with Representative John Boehner and 35 economists, won the right to submit their arguments in a lawsuit by 20 states seeking to undo the Obama administration's health-care overhaul. U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson in Pensacola yesterday granted requests by the eight Republican members of Congress and the economists to offer their views on the administration's bid to have the suit thrown out. Nineteen states have joined lawsuit brought by Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, who claims the health-care...

Double-dips are good for ballroom dancers and useful to economists. The first is obvious. If you can execute an elegant dip or two during a tango it goes a long way toward obscuring flaws in the rest of your routine. The same is true for double-dip recessions, which you will be hearing a lot more about over the next week. It's hard to find an expert who correctly predicted the economy would be sinking again this summer. OK, this column did. But my sources and I understood that much of the economic gains this past spring were an illusion caused...

Self-paying tax cuts are a popular delusion, except among economists. University of Michigan economist Joel Slemrod is adamant on one of the key economic issues of our day: 'Tax cuts don't pay for themselves! Period!' Hardly any economist would disagree. This is true for Republicans as well as Democrats. It is also true regardless of whether they describe themselves as NeoClassical, New Classical, Rational Expectations, Monetarist, Keynesian, Austrian or New Institutional economists. Yet, for a substantial portion of the general public, the idea that cutting tax rates will increase tax revenues has become an article of faith. The following anonymous...

The Congressional Budget Office, in last week's update of President Obama's budget forecasts, estimated that budget deficits will average nearly $1 trillion per year for the next decade. There is no school of economics (classical, Austrian, Keynesian, etc.) that says deficits of this magnitude for a decade or longer will not result in great economic hardship or worse. Greece, here we come. The operative question is, why would the president sign off on such a budget without presenting some plan to get the United States out of the mess - and where are his economists? Mr. Obama assembled a team...

Greg Mankiw's recent blog post carries a rather risky title: "The Monetary Base Is Exploding. So What?" I really am trying to understand the viewpoint of the wide range of economists (including Mankiw, Paul Krugman, Scott Sumner, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, Bryan Caplan, and David R. Henderson) who think the dollar is not going to fall sharply in the foreseeable future. But I've yet to see a convincing explanation as to how Bernanke (or his successor) is going to avoid large price inflation, given the corner the Fed and the feds have painted us into. Mankiw's latest post recapitulates many of...

We still pay attention to the economists who failed to predict the financial crisis. After a night at the orgy, the ancient Romans would cure their hangovers by stuffing themselves with deep-fried canaries. The Greeks favoured frying up sheep's lungs. For decades, we Britons have relied on bacon sandwiches to soak away the headache and nausea after a night out. But it was not until earlier this year that scientists at Newcastle University claimed to have pinpointed how fried meats cure hangovers by boosting the metabolism and creating amines which clear the head. In much the same way, economics is...

Paul Samuelson, the dean of American economists, died last Sunday at 94. An MIT professor and Nobel Prize winner, Samuelson made one major venture into public policy. This was when he advised the John F. Kennedy campaign and economic transition team in 1960 and 1961 and thereafter consulted with the new president's Council of Economic Advisers. Obituaries have been quick to credit Samuelson's advice to JFK for launching the great 1960s expansion. The Boston Globe quoted Samuelson's recommendation to JFK in 1961 — "a temporary reduction in tax rates on individual incomes can be a powerful weapon against recession" —...

Speaker Pelosi. Good afternoon. We just had a very instructive meeting with some leading economists about the number one subject on the minds of the American people: jobs. Jobs, jobs, jobs, and jobs. It comes at a time when, as you know, job creation is centered at addressing at underlying concerns that people have in their own homes. These are kitchen table issues that we discussed over the Speaker’s table in the conference room. I am going to introduce our experts that were here. You have their backgrounds. They are going to tell you some of their forecasts that they...

After another month of job losses and the unemployment rate approaching double-digits, Americans can’t be blamed for asking, “Where are the jobs?” After all, Democrats promised the American people the trillion-dollar ‘stimulus’ would create jobs immediately and keep the unemployment rate from rising above eight percent. Economists are now weighing in, pointing to the September jobs report as further evidence that the ‘stimulus’ isn’t working and that Washington should be focused on implementing policies that help small businesses weather this storm and get back to creating jobs.

Meanwhile, the majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over.

A passel of bigwig economists has signed a petition urging Congress and the executive branch “to reaffirm their support for and defend the independence of the Federal Reserve System as a foundation of U.S. economic stability.” In support of this defense of the Fed against those now challenging the secrecy of its undertakings and, in some cases, its very existence, these economists offer three arguments. First, “central bank independence has been shown to be essential for controlling inflation.” A little difficulty for this claim, however, resides in the undeniable fact that for more than a century before the Fed’s establishment,...

US recession to end in second half: NABE survey Wed May 27, 3:27 am ET WASHINGTON (AFP) – The reeling US economy is poised to emerge from recession in the second half of the year, but recovery will be lackluster, a survey of economic forecasters showed Wednesday. The National Association for Business Economics said a survey of 45 professional forecasters found that the consensus believed the end of the prolonged recession that began in December 2007 was finally was in sight. "While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing," according to NABE's latest...

There is a long list of professions that failed to see the financial crisis brewing. Wall Street bankers and deal-makers top it, but banking regulators are on it as well, along with the Federal Reserve. Politicians and journalists have shared the blame, as have mortgage lenders and even real estate agents. But what about economists? Of all the experts, weren't they the best equipped to see around the corners and warn of impending disaster?

From the WSJ: By PHIL IZZOOn average, they gave the president a grade of 59 out of 100, and although there was a broad range of marks, 42% of respondents rated Mr. Obama below 60. Mr. Geithner received an average grade of 51. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke scored better, with an average 71...The economists' negative ratings mark a turnaround in opinion. In December, before Mr. Obama took office, three-quarters of respondents said the incoming administration's economic team was better than the departing Bush team. However, Mr. Geithner's latest marks are lower than the average grade of 57 that...

President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner received failing grades for their efforts to revive the world's largest economy, according to participants in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey. A majority of the 49 economists polled said they were dissatisfied with the administration's economic policies, according to the paper, a stark contrast to Obama's popularity ratings with the general public. On average, the economists gave the president a grade of 59 out of 100, and although there was a broad range of marks, 42 percent of respondents rated Obama below 60, the paper said.

The report card is in for the Obama Adminstration. The grades are bad, but the troubling thing is that these economists were very confident just a couple of months ago that the President and his team were completely capable of handling the problem. Remember the nauseating David Brooks telling us how brilliant Obama's cabinet was. How's that working out for you now David?

Doug Casey's 1979 book Crisis Investing became the largest selling financial book in history as Americans desperately sought to survive in the disastrous economy created by President Jimmy Carter. He is clearly one of the best men you could turn to in finding out how to survive the economic mess created by an incompetent Democrat in the White House. So, with that in mind, it would be interesting to ask the guy who wrote the book on the disastrous Carter economy what he thinks about the mother-of-all-disastrous economies that is about to be hatched while Barack Obama sits on the...

Most economists almost unanimously recognize that, even if philosophically you're -- you're wary of government intervening in the economy, when you have the kind of problem we have right now -- what started on Wall Street, goes to Main Street, suddenly businesses can't get credit, they start paring back their investment, they start laying off workers, workers start pulling back in terms of spending -- that, when you have that situation, that government is an important element of introducing some additional demand into the economy. We stand to lose about $1 trillion worth of demand this year and another trillion...

The non-partisan scholar group Cato Institute has criticized Obama's latest 2009 stimulus plan. The group has been known to criticize President Bush's policies, President Obama's policies, and John McCain's policies. The following document published by the Cato Institute expresses deep disagreement of Obama's declaration that more government is needed to solve today's problems. "In fact, many economists disagree," says the Cato Institute. The document is signed by hundreds of economists and even Nobel laureates.

Academic “Consensus�” On Bailout by: Malcolm A. Kline, October 21, 2008 Beware of people who tell you what “everybody knows,” particularly if they are academics. “Virtually every economist who looked at the original plan said it was the wrong way to go,” Loyola finance professor George G. Kaufman said, as quoted by the Washington Times. “All of us were disappointed that it took [U. S. Treasury Secretary Henry M.] Paulson and the Administration so long to recognize the obvious.” Actually, what was obvious to Kaufman and his ilk was that, in their view, the plan did not go far enough...

..... It is a disgrace that no professional economist was consulted by Congress or invited to present his/her views at the Congressional hearings on the Treasury rescue plan. Specifically, the Treasury plan does not formally provide senior preferred shares for the government in exchange for the government purchase of the toxic/illiquid assets of the financial institutions; so this rescue plan is a huge and massive bailout of the shareholders and the unsecured creditors of the firms; with $700 billion of taxpayer money the pockets of reckless bankers and investors have been made fatter under the fake argument that bailing out...

"Gains privatised and losses socialised" was the more pointed comment by Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the Stern School in New York University. He is known in the economics trade as a "permabear" because of his repeated claims over the last six years that a financial system based on self-regulation, non-deposits, highly leveraged subprime housing debts and globalised derivatives trading was unsustainable and would collapse. Now that he has been proved correct he has suddenly become known to wider circles of people desperate to get some expert perspective on these events. How does this crisis compare to previous ones?...

It is one of the most audacious promises in a campaign that has been thick with them. In speech after speech, Senator Barack Obama has pledged that he will lower the country's health care costs enough to "bring down premiums by $2,500 for the typical family." Moreover, Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has promised that his health plan will be in place "by the end of my first term as president of the United States." Whether Obama can deliver is a matter of considerable dispute among health analysts and economists. While there is consensus that the U.S. health care system...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market would fare better in the first year after a victory by Republican presidential candidate John McCain than by his Democratic rival Barack Obama, according to a majority of economists at U.S. banks and research groups polled by Reuters. But the survey of 29 firms taken alongside a regular Reuters economic poll also found that economists had mixed views on the two candidates' economic plans. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being "very good," 12 economists gave McCain's proposals higher marks, while nine rated the two candidates equally and eight preferred...

Where in the world can we do the most good? Supplying the micronutrients vitamin A and zinc to 80 percent of the 140 million children who lack them in developing countries is ranked as the highest priority by the expert panel at the Copenhagen Consensus 2008 Conference. The cost is $60 million per year, yielding benefits in health and cognitive development of over $1 billion. Eight leading economists, including five Nobelists, were asked to prioritize 30 different proposed solutions to ten of the world's biggest problems. The proposed solutions were developed by more than 50 specialist scholars over the past...

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal see increasing odds of a recession this year along with mounting inflationary pressures, an uncomfortable mix that could play a role in shaping the 2008 presidential campaign and complicate life for the Federal Reserve. In the latest monthly survey, economists put the chance of recession at 42%, up from 38% in December and 23% just six months ago. On average, the 54 forecasters who participated see the economy expanding at less than a 2% annual rate in the first and second quarters. Last month's survey estimated 2007 growth at 2.5%. "The U.S. economy...

The idea is to induce people to boost spending, especially on big-ticket items such as homes and cars, and revitalize economic activity. "The recession gorilla is there. The question is can the Federal Reserve do enough to avert a recession?" asked Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight. "We think the odds are close to 50 percent that there will be a recession. It is high -- no question about it."

BANGKOK, Thailand - A slowdown in the U.S. economy will likely drag on global growth next year, economists predict, but Asia and Europe are expected to remain fairly resilient amid signs of healthy consumer demand. Even as a cooling U.S. housing market weakens Americans' appetites for foreign-made electronics, clothing and other exports, the swelling ranks of middle-class consumers in China, India and the rest of emerging Asia are seen picking up the slack, experts say. Europe's growth may also slow some, but the outlook there is also relatively positive due to renewed consumption and falling unemployment. "While the world's other...

USA Citizens Day - July 1st Immigration Control Rally Nationwide Rally on Saturday, July 1st, at noon, at your City HallMay 1st - Million of Illegal Aliens Marched in our StreetsTwelve million illegal aliens demonstrated their political power, and declared May 1st to be A Day Without Undocumented Workers ( illegal aliens ). They boycotted the USA, all US businesses and institutions. Millions of them marched in our streets, carried Mexican flags, shouted "Si se puede!", and demanded new laws from our Congress. July 1st - U.S. Citizens Nationwide Rally for Immigration ControlRally to stop our continuous invasion by...

See for example this thread first. The price of oil and metals fell to which I shrug and say "Oh, well" It's no wonder why-- their price was just sky-high and the folks who just bought now cry "SELL!!!!"

The White House on Friday nominated Randall S. Kroszner, a conservative economics professor from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, to fill one of two vacancies on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board of Governors. --snip-- "We're on different sides of the aisle, but he's extremely intelligent," said Goolsbee. "He's one of the two or three people in the world you'd turn to on banking regulation. I think any economist who knows Randy would say `Wow, what a good choice.'" --snip-- Kashyap said Kroszner has a libertarian bent when it comes to issues like taxation and entitlement programs. He...

The Labor Department reported that its Producer Price Index, which measures price pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.9 percent in December, the biggest increase since a 1.7 percent jump in September. For all of 2005, wholesale prices rose by 5.4 percent. That was the biggest increase since a 5.7 percent increase in 1990... However, core inflation, excluding energy and food, was up a more moderate 1.7 percent in 2005... Retail sales posted a weaker-than-expected 0.7 percent increase in December, the Commerce Department reported, after rising by 0.8 percent in November. "Retailers continue to report good sales momentum in...

Skousen, Rand too hot for university library in ManilaWe hear from Mark Skousen that he's none too popular at the University of the Philippines -- or rather, too popular. In an article posted at the Human Events site, he quotes a friend's report on the situation, a former Marxist turned around by a critique of Marx in one of his books.Remember you sent me a box of The Making of Modern Economics?I donated a copy to the libraries of each of the four major universities here. Later, a friend of mine checked the library at the University of the Philippines...

This is Mises's 1927 review of J. M. Keynes, The End of Laissez-Faire, Ideas on the Unification of Private and Social Economy (Munich and Leipzig: Duncker and Humblot, 1926), 40 pages, translated for the first time here (by Joseph Stromberg). It originally appeared as Mises, "Das Ende des Laissez-Faire, Ideen zur Verbindung von Privat- und Gemeinwirtschaft". Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft. 82(1927) 190-91. A review of a lecture given by John M. Keynes in Berlin. This text reproduces an address given by the English economist John Maynard Keynes on June 23, 1926, at the University of Berlin. It makes a...

.......snip............. The economics of religion is founded on the belief that people are just as rational in their choices about religion as they are about, say, buying a car. ............... The idea that religion involves rational choices extends even to suicide bombers who strike in the name of God. Studies show they are far from depressed loners or brainwashed robots. Instead, says Eli Berman, an associate professor of economics at the University of California at San Diego, suicide bombers typically are motivated young men -- and, rarely, women -- from average backgrounds. ..................... How should the West fight such terrorism?...

Bush-Cheney '04 today announced 368 of the nation's leading economists from 44 states have signed an economic statement denouncing John Kerry's economic proposals. The group boasts six Nobel laureates, including recent winner and Professor of Economics at Arizona State University Edward C. Prescott, as well as six former chairs of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. America's economists recognize that President Bush's pro-growth policies and across-the-board tax relief are the right policies for sustained growth – and they are urging voters not to turn back with John Kerry's tax and spend agenda.

"The two economists combed through 389 newspapers and A.P. reports contained in the LexisNexis database from January 1991 through May 2004, during the administrations of George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. They picked out headlines about gross domestic product growth, unemployment, retail sales and orders of durable goods and classified the headlines' depiction of the economy as either positive, negative, neutral or mixed. Then they crunched some numbers. They found that Mr. Clinton received better headlines than the two Republican presidents. Even after adjusting the data to compensate for differences in economic performance under the three...

Fuzzy math is making a comeback in Sen. John F. Kerry's campaign as he tries to promise voters better health-care coverage and education - all while reducing the federal deficit, economists said. Under either President Bush's plan or Kerry's blueprint, the deficit is expected to be cut in half over four years, from $477 billion this year to $235 billion in 2008, said University of Michigan economist Don Grimes. ``Bush has claimed the same thing Kerry is trying to claim: He is going to do something that already is going to happen,'' Grimes said, adding the deficit will decrease as...

6/18/04, Washington – While John Kerry calls for a 36% increase in the minimum wage, the majority of economic research, including the statements of five Nobel Prize-winning economists, continue to show that raising the minimum wage is a dangerous political ploy that will only serve to make life harder for the nation’s least skilled employees. “Leading economists such as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman are honest brokers of information who realize that a minimum wage will have the unintended consequence of hurting the least skilled employees in America. It is unfortunate and unconscionable that...

<p>NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Even some economists friendly to Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry say his proposal to end tax breaks on multinational corporations' overseas' profits won't necessarily stop the flow of jobs overseas.</p> <p>But even some more politically conservative economists applauded a proposal to cut corporate income taxes that is part of Kerry's newly unveiled jobs creation plan.</p>

<p>The Bush administration is overly upbeat in predicting that 2.6 million new jobs will be created this year, private economists say.</p> <p>It is a hurdle that would require the administration, in just one year, to replace all of the jobs that have been lost in the three years since President Bush took office.</p>

Editor's Note: TCS sponsored a debate on the issue of prescription drug reimportation in San Francisco on January 27 moderated by TCS host James K. Glassman. What follows below is the transcript of the event. James K. Glassman: Thank you for joining us. Let me introduce our panelists.  Milton Friedman to my left received the Nobel Prize in economics in 1976, and the presidential medal of freedom in 1988. He taught for 30 years at the University of Chicago, where he led a counter-revolution in economic thinking against predominant Keynesianism. He then moved to the Hoover Institution at Stanford....