Free Republic

10 Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls 1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90%...

The Huffington Post's sources are checking in faster than mine. They say the early exits show Obama winning North Carolina by 12, Hillary winning Indiana by 7. Last time, the early numbers from my sources in the chain of data were way, way, off, so as usual take these numbers with as many grains of salt as you deem necessary. UPDATE: Then they change to Obama by 14, Hill by 5. Grains of salt, people. Grains of salt. ANOTHER UPDATE: The suspiciously-rapidly-changing numbers from Huff. Indiana Obama: 50.5% Clinton: 49.5% North Carolina Obama: 60% Clinton: 38% My sources are not...

"I think it's very important for our friends, the Israelis, to have a peaceful Palestinian state living on their border. And it's very important for the Palestinian people to have a peaceful, hopeful future." So spoke President Bush just two days after his re-election, just exactly as news reports were leaking Yasser Arafat's demise.The combination of Mr. Bush's stunning new mandate and Mr. Arafat's near-death condition will lead, I predict, to a quick revival of Palestinian-Israeli diplomacy after months of relative doldrums and to massive dangers to Israel.The doldrums will cease because the Bush administration views Mr. Arafat as the...