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Keyword: fivethirtyeight

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  • Dear Nate Silver: The Media (and the GOP) Should Be ‘Freaking Out’ About Trump’s Poll Numbers

    11/25/2015 7:37:17 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 31 replies
    Mediaite ^ | 11/25/2015 | John Ziegler
    Liberal Media darling and alleged prediction guru Nate Silver says that everyone in the media should just calm down and stop "freaking out" about Donald Trump's amazing poll numbers. He insists that almost no voters have actually made up their mind yet and that there is still only a minuscule chance of Trump stealing the GOP nomination and changing our politics forever (not to mention also virtually insuring the election of Hillary Clinton). Silver is mostly wrong about Trump's chances of winning the nomination, but more importantly he discounts the very real impact that Trump will have on the ultimate...
  • Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

    11/23/2015 5:47:10 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 19 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | November 23, 2015 | Nate Silver
    Lately, pundits and punters seem bullish on Donald Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination recently inched above 20 percent for the first time at the betting market Betfair. Perhaps the conventional wisdom assumes that the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris will play into Trump’s hands, or that Republicans really might be in disarray. If so, I can see where the case for Trump is coming from, although I’d still say a 20 percent chance is substantially too high. Quite often, however, the Trump’s-really-got-a-chance! case is rooted almost entirely in polls. If nothing Trump has said...
  • Coming to grips with a President Trump

    11/22/2015 6:13:22 PM PST · by BlackFemaleArmyCaptain · 28 replies
    Nate Silver, editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, the dream site for statistics nerds, crystallized the bewilderment of the analyst class in trying to process the ongoing triumph of Donald Trump. "About 25 percent of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25 percent of that 25 percent in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?" Silver tweeted, drawing more than 1,000 retweets and likes apiece. The answer, of course, is twofold. First, that fourth-of-a-fourth is exactly the sort that often can wield such outsized influence in American presidential primary politics. Second, and even more to the point, is...
  • Every Day, Your Mom Wasted 90 Minutes of Her Life On You, So Get Her a Present

    05/10/2014 8:17:04 PM PDT · by PaulCruz2016 · 11 replies
    American Time Use Survey/FiveThirtyEight Blog ^ | 05-10-2014 | American Time Use Survey and Mona Chalabi
    In case you didnt remember (three of my colleagues looked stricken when this topic came up), its Mothers Day this Sunday. Here are nine reasons, courtesy of the latest American Time Use Survey, why you should buy your mom a present: 1.Your mom probably helped you out with your homework (women spend an average of 6.2 minutes a day doing homework with children in their households. Men spend less than four minutes); 2. It was probably your mom who had to listen to your teachers say how bad your homework was (women spend three times as much time per day...
  • For Columnist, a Change of Tone (Krugman vs. 538/Nate Silver)

    03/26/2014 5:32:28 PM PDT · by Olog-hai · 2 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | 03/26/2014 6:24 PM | Nate Silver
    A New York Times columnist has expressed substantially more negative sentiments about FiveThirtyEight since it left The New York Times, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis. The columnist, Paul Krugman, who writes about economics and politics for The Times, has referred to FiveThirtyEight or editor-in-chief Nate Silver 33 times on his blog. FiveThirtyEight classified each reference based on whether it expressed a favorable, unfavorable or neutral sentiment toward FiveThirtyEight.
  • Nate Silver quits New York Times to take up 'dream job' at ESPN

    07/23/2013 8:03:46 AM PDT · by Hieronymus · 7 replies
    The Guardian ^ | July 22, 2013 | Tom McCarthy
    The top forecaster in American politics has announced he is leaving the nation's most prestigious newspaper for a new home with the world's premier sportscaster. Nate Silver is joining ESPN from the New York Times after a stunning three-year run in which he coolly nailed the biggest election calls, attracted an enormous readership and silenced pundits whose mouths were previously thought to be un-stanchable. At ESPN, Silver will serve as editor-in-chief of a new site, built by him, to apply statistical analysis to sports and a broad range of other fields. The new site will retain the name FiveThirtyEight, in...
  • Into the Lion's Den - My post on FiveThirtyEight.com

    03/02/2009 9:43:12 AM PST · by jwb0581 · 3 replies · 307+ views
    Sean, I was in New Orleans a few years ago and passed a small group of demonstrators wielding signs in support of the government housing authority. The message, in effect, was "Housing is a fundamental right and should be free". Basically, "where's my free house?" It occured to me that if everyone did that, nobody would have a house. 100% of American success, the things you and I take for granted such as sitting at our laptops in a climate-controlled setting arguing politics, likely only a few minutes away from stores where you can buy anything and everything, in an...