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The term "hockey stick" was coined by the head of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Jerry Mahlman, to describe the pattern of historical temperatures in the northern hemisphere (it kind of looks like a hockey stick on its side). The chart shows relatively stable temperatures until around 100 year ago when we see a spike up. It is one of the key pieces of information used to prove that global warming is about to destroy the world. To create most of the chart , climate change scientists had to use natural sources (as opposed to...

The details are on the last three days of Steve McIntyre’s site Climate Audit, and summed up beautifully on Watts Up. The sheer effrontery and gall appears to be breathtaking. The Briffa temperature graphs have been widely cited as evidence by the IPCC, yet it appears they were based on a very carefully selected set of data, so select, that the shape of the graph would have been totally transformed if the rest of the data had been included. Kieth Briffa used 12 samples to arrive at his version of the hockey stick and refused to provide his data for...

An anonymous adage advises, “There is nothing wrong with making mistakes. Just don’t respond with encores.” Break your stick in ice hockey and drop it immediately or a penalty is assessed because continued use can cause serious damage (Rule 10.3). Apparently this rule doesn’t apply in climate science where a few scientists continue to use a broken “hockey stick” and cause serious damage. Facts proving humans are not causing global warming are not enough to stop the political juggernaut. Perhaps exposure of collusion among a small group of self-proclaimed climate scientists who continue to play with a broken stick...

Statement of William Happer Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics Princeton UniversityBefore the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Senator Barbara Boxer, ChairFebruary 25, 2009Madam Chairman and members, thank you for the opportunity to appear before the Committee on Environment and Public Works to testify on Climate Change. My name is William Happer, and I am the Cyrus Fogg Bracket Professor of Physics at Princeton University. I am not a climatologist, but I don’t think any of the other witnesses are either. I do work in the related field of atomic, molecular and optical physics. I have spent my...

On his January 29 TV show, Glenn Beck drew national attention to a relatively obscure graph of our nation's "monetary base" (a narrow definition of money supply, also known as M0) maintained online by the Research Department of the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The reason for the special attention was the dramatic hockey stick shape of the graph that developed during the last few months of 2008. Beginning about September the usually stable graph of monetary base vs. years shot virtually straight up for the remainder of the year.  Immediately below is the graph that Beck featured on his January...

Now that record-cold temperatures across the globe are making a mockery of human-caused global warming, we look to see if this is merely a "weather hiccup." Judge: Counselor, do you have anything to say before I pronounce sentence on the accused? Attorney: Yes, your honor. Might I remind you that the victim my client was accused of murdering showed up earlier and is very much alive, sitting there in the front row? Judge: Sir, this court does not deal in trivialities. Attorney: But your honor, I'd respectfully suggest that since there is no victim, there has been no crime and...

Mann-made science does not support the hypothesis that global warming is man-made A good scientist, like a good journalist, checks his facts, if for no other reason than to spare himself embarrassment and to immunize himself from charges that he’s casual with the truth, lazy or just plain dishonest. Michael Mann has not checked his facts. Mann’s article has two main thrusts. First, he attempts to discredit me and others who have criticized his work. Then, he attempts to defend his reputation by claims that distinguished authorities, especially the National Academy of Sciences, have endorsed his hockey stick graph. His...

The advice which forms the title of this post would be how Don Rickles, if he were a statistician, would explain how not to conduct times series analysis. Judging by the methods I regularly see applied to data of this sort, Don’s rebuke is sorely needed. The advice particularly relevant now because there is a new hockey stick controversy brewing. Mann and others have published a new study melding together lots of data and they claim to have again shown that the here and now is hotter than the then and there. Go to climateaudit.org and read all about it....

This figure, labeled as “Sea-ice Extent: Northern Hemisphere” was presented by Al Gore in the book version of his science (fiction) movie An Inconvenient Truth. But is this depiction of the Arctic sea ice extent over the course of the 20th century even close to reality? Probably not. Figure 1. Arctic sea-ice extent as depicted by Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth. (source: An Inconvenient Truth, p. 143) It does, however, bear a lot of similarity to another (at-one-time-popular) depiction of an aspect of climate that was widely used to demonstrate just how unusual things had become under mankind’s stewardship—the...

Now let's see: we've had the fraudulent "hockey stick" graph, the foundation of the manmade global warming theory, exposed; we've had the admission that almost all of the reputed global warming took place BEFORE 1940; we've had it pointed out that Al Gore wildly overstated the IPCC's prediction of sea rise

'The global-warmers were bound to attack, but why are they so feeble?' Last Updated: 11:20pm GMT 17/03/2007 'The Great Global Warming Swindle', broadcast by Channel 4, put the case for scepticism about man-made climate change. The programme sparked a heated debate and charges of scientific inaccuracy. Here, its director, Martin Durkin, responds to the critics. On March 8, Channel 4 broadcast my programme. Since then, supporters of the theory of man-made global warming have published frothing criticism. I am attacked for using an "old" graph depicting temperature over the past 1,000 years. They say I should have used a "new"...

If you are disgusted that every few days there is another article warning of the catastrophe we face from global warming - followed immediately by another article saying that the alarmists are all wrong, this piece should really please you. Since it is the first article I have seen that substantially agrees with what I have been saying all along, of course it pleases me. I know that discussions of global warming turn a lot of you off, but give this one a chance. The Global Warming Two-Step By William Tucker The American Spectator Published 1/23/2007 12:08:03 AM I'm in...

I'm in an interesting dilemma. I'm just finishing up a book on global warming and nuclear power. The premise is this: A. Global warming is a serious problem that should be solved. B. Nuclear power is the only way we're going to solve it. It's a simple premise that defies both liberal and conservatives -- fair enough. But ultimately it could get both on the same side. Then we might get something done in the country. Environmentalists hate nuclear but they worry about global warming more. Conservatives pooh-pooh global warming but they do like nuclear power. So maybe we could...

Outgoing Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) administration is recommending in a draft “white paper” that the state begin implementing carbon constraints in the near future, setting the stage for major policy battles over climate change emissions in a key regional and presidential-election battleground state. Observers say action by Florida to address carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could eventually help advance the issue throughout the country because of the state’s profile in national politics, its large congressional delegation, and its growing Republican majority. It is becoming even more of a “red” state, which would “buck the traditional wisdom” that red states spurn...

The American Association for the Advancement of Science claims for its journal Science “the largest paid circulation of any peer-reviewed general science journal in the world, with an estimated total readership of one million.” Be that as it may, Science is the Dan Rather of science journalism. “Fake Data, but Could the Idea Still Be Right?” in the July 14 issue actually makes the following statement (emphases mine): European investigators last week confirmed that a pioneering oral cancer researcher in Norway had fabricated much of his work. The news left experts in his field with a pressing question: What should...

"We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?" -- Phil Jones in a reply to climate skeptic Warwick Hughes in February 2005 as confirmed and reported by climatologist Hans Vans Storch at a National Academy of Sciences hearing March 2 on "Scientific Efforts to reconstruct surface temperature records over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years." "Getting caught is the mother of invention." -- Robert Byrne "People say that in politics, it's not the crime, it's the cover-up....

From a speech by Sen. James Inhofe: Today I would like to continue my series of speeches examining the Four Pillars of Climate Alarmism. Last week, I showed that the first pillar, the 2001 climate change report by the National Academy of Sciences, is nothing but hot air. The same is true of the 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It supposedly provides irrefutable evidence of the global warming “consensus.” Put simply, it does not, as my speech today will demonstrate. The media greeted the release of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report with predictable hysteria. “In a...

Global Warming Bombshell A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics. By Richard Muller Technology for Presidents October 15, 2004 Progress in science is sometimes made by great discoveries. But science also advances when we learn that something we believed to be true isn’t. When solving a jigsaw puzzle, the solution can sometimes be stymied by the fact that a wrong piece has been wedged in a key place. In the scientific and political debate over global warming, the latest wrong piece may be the “hockey stick,” the...

Global Warming Bombshell A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics. ..... Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick. In his original publications of the stick, Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA, to find the dominant features in a set of more than 70 different climate records.

Critique of the Mann et al Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Reconstruction Critique of the Mann et al Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Reconstruction BY Steven McIntyre Toronto, Ontario Ross McKitrick Department of Economics, University of Guelph. ANNOUNCEMENT: JANUARY 27 2005 We are pleased to note a series of important developments in this project today. Our research is profiled in the cover story of the Feb. 1, 2005 edition of Natuurwetenschap & Techniek (NWT), a prominent European science magazine. Dutch and English versions of the article will be at www.natutech.nl. NOTE: NWT will make web editions available later. Media representatives may contact...

A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics. Progress in science is sometimes made by great discoveries. But science also advances when we learn that something we believed to be true isn't. When solving a jigsaw puzzle, the solution can sometimes be stymied by the fact that a wrong piece has been wedged in a key place. In the scientific and political debate over global warming, the latest wrong piece may be the "hockey stick," the famous plot (prominently displayed by the IPCC report, 2001), published by University...

One of the pillars on which the alarmist case for doing something about global warming rests is the contention that the 20th century was the warmest in the last thousand years. This proposition is most dramatically expressed in the "hockey stick" graph.............. ************ They found numerous and worrying errors. As they put it, the data "for the estimation of temperatures from 1400 to 1980 contains collation errors, unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculation of principal components and other quality control defects." They used the original source data to correct these errors, after...

Global Warming Bombshell: A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics. by Richard Muller (prof physics - University of California, Berkeley) Progress in science is sometimes made by great discoveries. But science also advances when we learn that something we believed to be true isn’t. When solving a jigsaw puzzle, the solution can sometimes be stymied by the fact that a wrong piece has been wedged in a key place. In the scientific and political debate over global warming, the latest wrong piece may be the “hockey stick,” the...

Volume 7, Number 26: 30 June 2004 In one of the more intriguing aspects of his study of global climate change over the past three millennia - of which he amazingly makes no particular mention - Loehle (2004) presents a graph of the Sargasso Sea and South African temperature records of Keigwin (1996) and Holmgren et al. (1999, 2001) that reveals the existence of a major spike in surface air temperature that began sometime in the early 1400s.  This abrupt and anomalous warming pushed global air temperatures considerably above the peak warmth of the 20th century, after which they fell...

<p>While most of official Washington was captivated with the fight on the Senate floor to pass an energy bill before Congress left town for its August vacation, a vicious campaign was under way behind the scenes to smear two leading scientists for pointing out serious flaws in the science behind the theory of human-caused climate change.</p>