http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/inflation/ en-us Wed, 6 Jan 2010 02:28:42 GMT Focus Forum 15 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2421875/posts New N.Korean Currency Sees Runaway Inflation North Korea's currency reform has apparently failed to tame inflation. The state has paid the first salaries since the shock currency reform late last year, with the State Security Department and the Ministry of Public Security, the frontline agencies dedicated to protection of the regime, paying soldiers 6,000 won each -- 3,000 won in average monthly pay plus a 3,000 won bonus. Soldiers usually received about 3,000 won in the old currency. That this effectively doubled means the currency reform, which exchanged old won for new at a rate of 100:1, has not been... Chosun Ilbo http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2421875/posts#comment Wed, 6 Jan 2010 02:28:42 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2421280/posts How Deflation Is Inflation Economics / Inflation Jan 04, 2010 - 03:20 AM By: Shelby_H_Moore Let's squash the debate between deflationalists and hyper-inflationalists. Here follows the math that shows how we get the equivalent effect of price inflation (and skyrocketing gold price) when there is deflation on a debt money standard. In short, purchasing power is decreasing during deflation on a debt money standard. That has a similar wealth destroying effect as price inflation. Purchasing power is decreasing because private sector (non-government) share of total debt is decreasing, as well for a more complex second reason. What deflationalists miss is... Market Oracle http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2421280/posts#comment Tue, 5 Jan 2010 13:22:10 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2420703/posts The prospect of high inflation has been a concern of many investors, given the expansion of the monetary base (reserves plus currency in circulation), the explosion of the federal deficit, and the decline of the dollar. For much of 2009, however, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices to be easing. In fact, combined with falling labor costs and record low capacity utilization rates, this led some to worry more about deflation. But these declines in “headline inflation,” which includes food and energy, stemmed largely from dropping oil prices, which had fallen from record levels in 2008. Excluding food and... Lord Abbett & Co, LLC http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2420703/posts#comment Mon, 4 Jan 2010 18:18:02 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2420607/posts The Chart That Shows It Will Be A Long, Long Time Before There's A Rate Hike Joe Weisenthal Jan. 4, 2010, 9:30 AM The chart below comes courtesy of Morgan Stanley analyst Teun Draaisma. It takes a look back at the last few recessions, and then the timing of three subsequent economic events: non-farm payroll growth, the peak in ISM new orders minus inventories, and then finally the first rate hike. As you can see, we haven't even had the first two, and in the recent recessions, the rate hike (as shown by the green bar) comes significantly after the... The Business Insider http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2420607/posts#comment Mon, 4 Jan 2010 16:14:36 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2420565/posts Here’s what’s coming in economic news: The next employment report could show the economy adding jobs for the first time in two years. The next G.D.P. report is likely to show solid growth in late 2009. There will be lots of bullish commentary — and the calls we’re already hearing for an end to stimulus, for reversing the steps the government and the Federal Reserve took to prop up the economy, will grow even louder. But if those calls are heeded, we’ll be repeating the great mistake of 1937, when the Fed and the Roosevelt administration decided that the Great... New York Times http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2420565/posts#comment Mon, 4 Jan 2010 15:12:33 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2420298/posts Interest Rate Rally Anticipates Inflation In 2010 by: Daryl Montgomery January 02, 2010 U.S. treasuries closed out 2009 with their biggest loss since 1978. It was the first loss since 1999 and only the fourth loss in 31 years. Interest rates at the long end of the curve are now almost double what they were at the height of the Credit Crisis. It was quite a turnaround from the end of 2008, when bonds managed to rally and survive the market slaughter that took down almost every asset class. 2009 witnessed a complete turnaround when treasuries went down and almost... Seeking Alpha http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2420298/posts#comment Mon, 4 Jan 2010 01:32:19 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2420269/posts "This has been a phenomenal year for the economy," wrote Jeff Harding in a Daily Capitalist post. Housing numbers show things will only get worse in 2010. Bob McCarty Writes http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2420269/posts#comment Mon, 4 Jan 2010 00:30:42 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2418801/posts Inflationary Pause Before The Deflationary Collapse Economics / Great Depression II Dec 31, 2009 - 12:54 PM By: Janet Tavakoli Washington's Bipartisan Betrayal: The 2015 Global Financial Crisis - The time has come for new year's resolutions. The House passed the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009 (H.R. 4173) on December 11, 2009. It gives $4 trillion in "emergency funding" to our largest banks during the next financial crisis. Instead of reform, Congress offers even bigger bailouts. Unless we change direction, we will have another crisis by 2015. Congress has made all the wrong moves to guarantee... The market Oracle http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2418801/posts#comment Fri, 1 Jan 2010 04:47:09 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2418067/posts The coming Great Inflation, real or imagined By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa Wed Dec 30, 3:29 pm ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A historic economic crisis has left Americans with plenty of things to worry about. But is inflation one of them? And is there a risk that fretting over higher prices may actually bring them about? The answers to these questions will help define the timing of the Federal Reserve's pullback from an unprecedented level of monetary stimulus, deployed to combat the worst financial panic since the Great Depression. In justifying its pledge to leave interest rates near zero for... Reuters http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2418067/posts#comment Thu, 31 Dec 2009 01:48:36 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2417621/posts 'We're On The Path For Fireworks In 2010' by: Prieur du Plessis December 29, 2009 Many commentators have over the past few days churned out lists of 2010 predictions. Although never one to produce best and worst lists at the turn of the year, Richard Russell, 85-year-old doyen of newsletter writers and author of the Dow Theory Letters, did express a major concern, as quoted below: I’m thinking that we’re on the path for fireworks in 2010. The reason I say that is because the federal deficits are running into the trillions of dollars. The roll-over of debt coming up... Seeking Alpha http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2417621/posts#comment Wed, 30 Dec 2009 14:51:14 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416735/posts Astonishing Inflation Data From The BLS Economics / Inflation Dec 28, 2009 - 12:42 PM By: Larry_Edelson With the new year rapidly approaching, not much is happening in the markets. So I’d like to take this time to show you some stats that simply amaze me. Even more astonishing, the figures I’m about to review with you are most likely conservative, and err on the low side of the spectrum. I’m talking about inflation data courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). I find the stats startling because it’s proof positive that inflation is far from dead. And as... The Market Oracle http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416735/posts#comment Tue, 29 Dec 2009 04:07:02 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416723/posts The Federal Reserve on Monday proposed allowing banks to park their reserves at the central bank, a move aimed at weaning the economy off extraordinary infusions of cash and curbing inflation. Skip to next paragraph Enlarge This Image Haraz Ghanbari/Associated Press Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, has cited deposits as a way to move money. The Fed would create the equivalent of a certificate of deposit that pays interest to banks for keeping some of their reserves — which are currently estimated at more than $1 trillion — for up to one year. That would help offset some of... New York Times http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416723/posts#comment Tue, 29 Dec 2009 03:34:40 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416690/posts Chinese Economy Overtakes JapanChina has almost certainly overtaken Japan to become the world's second-biggest economy after state officials dramatically upgraded their estimates for the country's growth last year. By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor Published: 9:29PM GMT 26 Dec 2009 The fast-growing emerging economy had been expected to surpass Japan next year, but the transition looks to have happened in 2009, based on China's new growth estimates. Its statistics bureau said that China grew by 9.6pc – rather than 9pc – in 2008, meaning its economic output was 31.405 trillion yuan, or $4.6 trillion (£2.9 trillion), last year. According to the... The Telegraph (UK) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416690/posts#comment Tue, 29 Dec 2009 02:36:57 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416660/posts Adjusted For Inflation, Dow's Gains Are Puny By E.S. BROWNING December 26,2009 Many investors realize that stocks have been among the worst investments of the past decade. But they may not realize quite how bad the decade was, because most people forget about the effects of inflation. Despite its 2009 rebound, the Dow Jones Industrial Average today stands at just 10520.10, no higher than in 1999. And that is without counting consumer-price inflation. In 1999 dollars, the Dow is only at about 8200 and would have to rise another 28% or so to return to 1999 levels. Using today's... Wall Street Journal http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416660/posts#comment Tue, 29 Dec 2009 01:46:54 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416530/posts China Stocks May See ‘Full-Blown’ Bubble In 2010, BofA Says December 28, 2009, 02:12 AM EST By Chua Kong Ho Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stock and property markets may develop into a “full-blown” bubble next year as inflation accelerates, according to BofA Merrill Lynch Research. “Next year could be the year we see a full-blown asset bubble,” David Cui, the China strategist at Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit, said today in a phone interview from Sydney. “We’re likely to see massive savings migration as we head into real negative interest-rate territory,” where people “save less, spend more... Business Week http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416530/posts#comment Mon, 28 Dec 2009 21:51:10 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416107/posts A new global currency should replace the US dollar as the international reserve currency, as the long-term deterioration of America's economy and the greenback is fuelling a "currency-regime crisis", says Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator of the Financial Times. Wolf, who has honorary doctorates from three universities, bases his argument in part on the Triffin dilemma, an economic paradox named after economist Robert Triffin. The paradox shows that the US dollar's role as a global reserve currency leads to a conflict between US national monetary policy and global monetary policy. It also points to fundamental imbalances in... United Arab Emirates' Dubai Media Emirates Business 24-7 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2416107/posts#comment Mon, 28 Dec 2009 06:06:05 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2415165/posts Yukio Hatoyama, the new Japanese Prime Minister, has stunned a nation already mired in huge public debt by unveiling the country’s biggest ever postwar budget: a 92.3 trillion yen (£630 billion) spending spree aimed at “saving people’s lives”. The unprecedented budget, which supposedly shifts Japan’s fiscal spending focus “from concrete to lives”, comes amid rising concern about the solidity of sovereign debt in the world’s second-largest economy. The new budget will require additional debt issuance of Y44.3 trillion — within the Government’s expected band, but still at a level that will raise Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio to nearly 195 per cent.... The Times (UK) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2415165/posts#comment Sat, 26 Dec 2009 02:19:58 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2412538/posts The National Inflation Association is pleased to announce its top 10 predictions for 2010. 1) We will learn the 2009 holiday shopping season was a bust. The Commerce Department reported seasonally adjusted November retail sales up 1.3% from October. However, if you apply the average seasonal adjustments that were used during the years 2006 and 2007, which account for a normal spike in November sales due to the holiday shopping season, retail sales were actually down 1.3% in November. NIA believes any year-over-year increase in 2009 holiday season retail sales will be bottom bouncing from 2008 and not an indication... Natl Inflation Assn http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2412538/posts#comment Mon, 21 Dec 2009 22:50:26 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2411515/posts Deflationary Myth Is Poor Excuse For Irresponsible Policy Excesses New figures show that UK inflation was 1.9pc during the 12 months to the end of November, up from 1.5pc the month before. That was "above consensus estimates". By Liam Halligan Published: 7:19PM GMT 19 Dec 2009 Having said that, British inflation, to use investment bank parlance, has "surprised on the upside" pretty much every month for the past two years.> Ever since this crisis began, economists in the City of London have underestimated UK inflation and warned, instead, that "deflation" looms. As a result of this threat, policymakers have had... The Telegraph (UK) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2411515/posts#comment Sun, 20 Dec 2009 04:27:57 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2411486/posts Bernake: If declines in the dollar and increases in commodity prices were creating upward pressures on consumer prices and causing expectations of future inflation to rise, those developments would be taken extremely seriously by the Committee and would have to be balanced against the high rate of unemployment that you posit in your hypothetical. Luskin: This is no hypothetical -- it's happening right now. We have a 10% unemployment rate, the dollar is falling, gold is a week or two off all-time highs, and oil prices have more than doubled this year. So why is the Fed running the easiest... SmartMoney http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2411486/posts#comment Sun, 20 Dec 2009 03:00:34 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409771/posts In the early 20th century, Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world. While Great Britain's maritime power and its far-flung empire had propelled it to a dominant position among the world's industrialized nations, only the United States challenged Argentina for the position of the world's second-most powerful economy. It was blessed with abundant agriculture, vast swaths of rich farmland laced with navigable rivers and an accessible port system. Its level of industrialization was higher than many European countries: railroads, automobiles and telephones were commonplace. In 1916, a new president was elected. Hipólito Irigoyen had formed a... http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409771/posts#comment Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:00:57 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409572/posts NEW YORK – Gold prices have been rising sharply, breaching the $1,000 barrier and in recent weeks rising towards $1,200 an ounce and above. Today’s “gold bugs” argue that the price could top $2,000. But the recent price surge looks suspiciously like a bubble, with the increase only partly justified by economic fundamentals. Gold prices rise sharply only in two situations: when inflation is high and rising, gold becomes a hedge against inflation; and when there is a risk of a near depression and investors fear for the security of their bank deposits, gold becomes a safe haven. The last... Project Syndicate http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409572/posts#comment Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:35:05 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2409149/posts The issue of TIME scheduled to hit newsstands Friday is described in a news release today as the "most anticipated issue of the year." Why? Because it features Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the cover as the magazine's "2009 Person of the Year." Bob McCarty Writes http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2409149/posts#comment Thu, 17 Dec 2009 00:08:56 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409101/posts Can Inflation Fix The US Economy? By Bill Bonner 12/16/09 Zurich, Switzerland – Are we in a depression yet? The number of Americans living on food stamps has risen to 37 million. Food stamps are the soup lines of the ’00s. And what else was big in the ’30s? Escapist movies. Here’s a headline for you: “Box office takings set to smash records,” says The Financial Times. What kind of movies? End of the world catastrophes…vampires…strange non-humans doing strange things. For example, there are ads for Avatar all over Europe. The film seems to concern Spock-like creatures that use bows... The Daily Reckoning http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409101/posts#comment Wed, 16 Dec 2009 23:01:42 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409028/posts Economist and author Jeff Rubin, who predicted the bursting of Canada's last major housing bubble, warns many Canadians will soon regret they hefty prices they're paying to enter the property market. The often controversial former chief economist of CIBC World Markets says there's another bubble building -- in interest rates -- which could be on the rise by the end of next year. That will squeeze homeowners who took out variable rate mortgages, betting they would stay at rock-bottom for a long time. The author of "Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the... Forbes http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409028/posts#comment Wed, 16 Dec 2009 21:19:13 GMT