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Keyword: natesilver

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  • Could Congress Block Trump’s Emergency Declaration?

    02/18/2019 7:56:33 AM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 32 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | February 18, 2019 | Perry Bacon Jr. and Nate Silver
    President Trump has declared a national emergency in order to pay for physical barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border, but will Congress block it? That’s a long shot — but we can’t rule it out either. Here’s the basic process, as the New York Times explained in an article after Trump’s declaration. Congress can take up a resolution to end a presidential national emergency declaration. If such a resolution passes in one chamber, the other must bring it up for a vote within 18 days. If the resolution passes both chambers and the president vetoes it, a two-thirds majority in Congress...
  • Nate Silver in final midterm projections: 'Democrats need a couple things to go wrong' to lose House

    11/05/2018 7:09:09 PM PST · by yesthatjallen · 73 replies
    The Hill ^ | 11/05/18 | Brett Samuels
    FiveThirtyEight founder and election forecaster Nate Silver on Monday offered his final projections for the midterm elections, arguing that a number of factors are conspiring to make Republican chances of keeping the majority in the House "fairly slim." Silver gave Democrats a roughly 86 percent chance of winning the majority in the House. The party must pick up at least 23 seats on Tuesday to retake the majority. "Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans," Silver wrote. Silver said Republicans still stand a slim chance of...
  • Whoops! Nate Silver now HEDGING his ‘blue wave’ bet for Democrats

    11/05/2018 10:40:26 AM PST · by SleeperCatcher · 53 replies
    The National Sentinel ^ | 11/5/18 | USA Features
    Red Wave: All last month political guru Nate Silver predicted that Democrats had an 80-85 percent chance of retaking the House at least, but now that the midterm elections are just a day away, he seems to be hedging his bet. “This last set of Upshot/Siena polls has been pretty good for D’s. They’re polling in 11 districts now, and on average, the polls are coming in about 2-3 points better for Dems than the 538 Classic forecast from before the poll was entered,” the editor of tweeted on Saturday.
  • Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House

    11/04/2018 7:41:57 AM PST · by mandaladon · 50 replies
    Hot Air ^ | 4 Nov 2018 | Nate Silver
    The reason it’s counterintuitive is because you can’t really identify 23 districts that are safe bets to flip to Democrats, which is the number they need to take the House. In the Deluxe version of our model (the one I’ll be focusing on here) only 193 seats are considered by our model to be “solid Democratic” (at least a 95 percent chance of a Democratic victory). If Democrats won only those seats and no others, they’d actually lose two seats from the 195 they control now. Another 15 seats are “likely Democratic,” where Democrats have at least a 75 chance...
  • Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'

    11/04/2018 8:06:57 AM PST · by mandaladon · 48 replies
    The Hill ^ | 4 Nov 2018 | MEGAN KELLER
    FiveThirtyEight's election forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democrat or Republican hands in Tuesday's election, though polling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber. "So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," Silver told ABC's "This Week." However, he noted that "polls aren't always right." "The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53."...
  • Nate Silver: I'm not at all convinced there's movement nationally toward Democrats

    11/03/2018 6:21:46 PM PDT · by 11th_VA · 108 replies
    twitter ^ | Nov 3, 2018 | Nate Silver
    I'm not at all convinced there's movement nationally toward Democrats—the generic ballot has been very flat. But, they may be closing well in swing districts because of their big spending advantage, which ought to be a bit scary for R's... But to bring this back: When people look at 538 and ask "what if the polls are wrong?", that's *the question our model is trying to answer*. The polls say Ds will win the House. Our model says, based on how accurate polls have been in the past, there's a 15-20% chance they won't...
  • <FLASHBACK> The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats

    11/03/2018 5:16:09 PM PDT · by Az Joe · 17 replies
    %#* ^ | 11/05/2014 | Nate Silver
    11/5/14 "For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012. The Democrats’ complaints may have been more sophisticated-seeming than the ”skewed polls” arguments made by Republicans in 2012. But in the end, they were just as wrong. The polls did have a strong bias this year — but it was toward Democrats and not against them."
  • Nate Silver: 85% chance Dems win the House

    10/29/2018 3:14:03 PM PDT · by St. Louis Conservative · 98 replies
    Five Thirty Eight ^ | 10/23/2018 | Nate Silver
    in 7 Chance Democrats win control (86.4%) 1 in 7 Chance Republicans keep
  • Nate Silver: 86% Dems takes the House

    10/23/2018 8:33:48 AM PDT · by Proud White Trump Supporter · 105 replies
    ABC News ^ | Oct 23, 2018 | Nate Silver
    Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
  • Nate Silver: "Trumpian News Cycle" Makes 2018 Prediction Difficult; Expect "An October Surprise(tr)

    10/21/2018 1:46:47 PM PDT · by Sir Napsalot · 58 replies
    RCP Video ^ | 10-21-2018 | Tim Hains
    538 founder Nate Silver said the major "X-factor" in predicting the 2018 midterm elections is turnout and that is determined by the "Trumpian news cycle." He also said we might see "an October surprise or two" before November 6, in an interview on ABC's 'This Week.' (snip) GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: "...So there it comes down to 85 percent chance that Democrats win control (note: Nate Silver's prediction now). That sounds a lot bigger than it is, right?" NATE SILVER, 538: "...Not a lot of guarantees, but that’s why we show like a very wide range, anywhere from a 20 seat gain,...
  • Not So Cocksure Now? Nate Silver Says 75% Chance Dems Win House

    08/17/2018 3:26:48 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 44 replies
    Rush ^ | August 17, 2018 | Rush Limbaugh
    RUSH: Nate Silver. Since I mentioned it, let’s go listen to it. We have three bites here. This is last night, FiveThirtyEight website, politics podcast, Galen Druke asking the editor-in-chief, Nate Silver, about his forecast for the 2018 midterms. The question: “What odds does your forecast show for control of the House in this election?” SILVER: It gives Democrats a three-in-four chance of winning the House. It’s in the Hillary Clinton zone. It’s very similar actually. Part of the reason why we’re saying like three-in-four and one-in-four for Republicans. If you play out this universe four times they win once...
  • Note To 'Experts': Obama Is Not a Top 10 President

    02/21/2018 9:44:30 PM PST · by Kaslin · 34 replies ^ | February 22, 2018 | Matt Margolis
    When "presidential politics experts" ranked all presidents, past and current, the headlines typically focused on Trump’s position at the bottom of the list. After one year—a year with a booming economy, increased business and consumer confidence, and significant gains on the foreign policy front—they have concluded that Trump is the worst president of all time. There’s no chance of any partisan bias there, right?Trump's record is certainly up for debate, but even famed liberal pollster Nate Silver wrote off the rankings as partisan garbage in a tweet. "It speaks poorly to the field of presidential scholarship that political scientists have Trump...
  • Nate Silver Explains How MSM Helped Hillary Lose Election

    02/07/2017 7:25:30 PM PST · by PJ-Comix · 56 replies
    NewsBusters ^ | February 7, 2017 | P.J. Gladnick
    Sometimes your best friends can inadvertently become your worst enemies. Such was the case of Hillary Clinton and the mainstream media according to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. Most observant people knew that the MSM was all in for Hillary this past election to the extent of acting like cheerleaders for her. So instead of cautioning Hillary when Donald Trump made exactly the right moves to win the necessary electoral votes for victory, they instead mocked him for his ignorance of political campaigning. As a result this gave the Hillary campaign a false sense of security when they should have campaigned...
  • Nate Silver: Clinton 'almost certainly' would be president if not for Comey

    12/11/2016 11:00:36 AM PST · by kevcol · 88 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | December 11, 2016 | Gabby Morrongiello
    Statistics expert Nate Silver claims defeated Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would "almost certainly" have made it to the Oval Office if the election had been held before FBI Director James Comey announced the reopening of the agency's investigation into her private email practices. "Comey had a large, measurable impact on the race," wrote Silver, who ran FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, in a series of tweets Sunday morning.
  • What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes

    11/09/2016 6:39:58 PM PST · by MUDDOG · 72 replies
    Fivethirtyeight ^ | 11-9-2016 | Nate Silver
    Here’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. There’s a sea of red for President-elect Donald Trump. He earned 306 electoral votes and became the first Republican since 1988 to win Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Silver sold em fools gold

    Hillary was at 76% odds of winning according to this buffoon today... Effing idiot.
  • Nate Silver: 2016 Polls Less Reliable Than Prior Years

    Many 2016 polls may prove incorrect because so many Americans are undecided or else say they’re backing third parties, says Nate Silver, founder of the polling firm. “Undecideds are MUCH higher than normal,” Silver said in a Tuesday morning tweet. “So risk of a polling error — in either direction — is higher than usual.” One out of eight voters, or 12.5 percent, are either undecided or declaring support for other candidates during the last few days of the election. That is up from one out of 32 voters in 2012, one out of 27 voters in 2004 and...

    11/06/2016 3:16:07 PM PST · by Simon Foxx · 71 replies
    Political statistician Nate Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida, according to an analysis published Sunday.
  • Nate Silver: Polls showing Clinton up 5 points not backed by data

    11/06/2016 12:31:59 PM PST · by SoFloFreeper · 16 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 11/6/16 | Daniel Chaitin
    For supporters of Donald Trump who are discouraged by the latest slate of polls showing Hillary Clinton up 5 percent just days before Election Day, polling guru Nate Silver had some reassuring words Sunday morning. "Some people are saying Clinton's up 5-6 nationally. That's just not a good representation of what the data says," Silver tweeted. But, he admitted, Clinton does have a lead.
  • Nate Silver's Very Very Wrong Predictions about Donald Trump are Terrifying

    11/04/2016 2:09:10 PM PDT · by mathprof · 16 replies
    Paleofuture ^ | 11/4/2016 | Matt Novak
    Nobody knows what the future holds. That’s what makes it so interesting—and often terrifying. But it’s become increasingly clear that the person who knows the least about the future is the one that everybody has been turning to for answers about the future of American politics: Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver emerged as Our National Oracle™ after successfully predicting many of the results in the 2008 election. But as Silver’s satirical counterpart, Carl Diggler, has proven time and again, you may as well just be going with gut instinct based on Silver’s terrible track record since 2008.