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For three long years, the United States, Britain, and France kept the secret while their intelligence services shared information they had been gathering on what appeared to be a top secret underground nuclear weapons plant near Qom. At the very last minute, just four days before the allies planned to shock the world by revealing detailed information on the secret nuclear plant, the Iranian government sent a tersely worded letter acknowledging the existence of the site to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and pledged to open it for future inspections. “Someone leaked,” says Danielle Pletka, vice president of the...

Iran most likely will develop a nuclear capability far sooner than the NIE timeline of around 2015... Much of the analysis both classified and from think tanks, mistakenly presupposes Iran will only pursue an implosion device... In the mid 1970’s feeling threatened by Soviet expansion by its Cuban surrogates in Angola, the South African government started down the road to becoming a nuclear power. Similar to Iran today, they settled on the production of uranium as the fuel and developed a gun type of weapon. Between 1982 and 1989 they completed 6 lightweight (750 kg/1,650 lb) weapons with an estimated...

Back in 2007, the National Intelligence Estimate was released which all but absolved Iran of suspicions that it was on course to develop nuclear weapons. Rich Lowry writes In November 2007, US intelligence agencies wrote a National Intelligence Estimate concluding, "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." . . The 2007 NIE had a very circumscribed definition of a weapons program, but it included "covert conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work." Exactly what Qom is for. What do the Iranians have to do to convince US intelligence they have a weapons program? The...

When it comes to politicized intelligence in the Bush years, the critics may finally have a point. Perhaps the work of America’s intelligence agencies was manipulated to suit the convenience of a small group of willful officials, intent on getting their way against the better judgment of their colleagues. Except the intelligence was about Iran, not Iraq, and the manipulators weren’t conniving neocons but rather the Administration’s internal critics on the left.”

In 2008, a suspicious National Intelligence Estimate was leaked to the news media, apparently to influence the 2008 presidential elections. An NIE is the consensus view on the threats to this nation, at times on a specific topic like Iran or Iraq or al Qaeda. IN 2007 the NIE was a crass act of misinformation.

The revelation of an Iranian uranium-enrichment facility buried in a mountain at an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base near the religious city of Qom might seem ominous. If, that is, the Iranians were determined to develop a nuclear weapon. Fortunately, we are advised that they are not. In November 2007, US intelligence agencies wrote a National Intelligence Estimate concluding, “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” The intelligence community appears to be sticking by its judgment, which means — cue the sighs of relief — that the Qom facility may be only...

About that 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran . . . In November of 2007, the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) drafted a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program. In its publicly released “Key Judgments,” the IC concluded: “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” A footnote at the end of that sentence made it clear just what the IC thought had been “halted” (emphasis added): For the purposes of this Estimate, by “nuclear weapons program” we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium...

Do you remember that 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate which concluded -- to virtually everyone's astonishment -- that four years earlier Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program? Publication of that NIE cut the ground out from under the Bush administration's efforts to prevent Iran from getting its hands on a nuclear bomb.  After all, why pressure the mullahs in Teheran to stop a program they'd already abandoned?  And, of course, the NIE's conclusion was cited by President Bush's political enemies as (further) evidence that the President and his team were so driven by their hard-line ideology that they (as...

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 — A new assessment by American intelligence agencies released Monday concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen, contradicting a judgment two years ago that Tehran was working relentlessly toward building a nuclear bomb.

Al-Qaeda is "less capable and effective" than it was a year ago after a series of damaging blows that have killed key leaders in Pakistan's tribal areas, the new US intelligence chief said. Nevertheless, retired admiral Dennis Blair, the director of national intelligence, said Al-Qaeda was still planning attacks on the West and is believed to view Europe as a "viable launching point."

President-elect Barack Obama is expected to nominate Retired Admiral Dennis Blair as director of national intelligence, according to media reports Monday

Intelligence: Our spy agencies have taken another look into their crystal ball and see a long period of American decline. We're betting they aren't any more accurate on this prediction than they've been on others in the past. The National Intelligence Estimate put out periodically by the nation's 17 spy agencies is intended to serve as a road map for future policy actions. Unfortunately, the one just released takes a lot of wrong turns. It warns, for instance, of Russia once again rising in global affairs — in part because global warming will be a boon to that nation's sprawling...

The New York Times reported last week that Israel carried out a major military exercise in early June that appears to be a rehearsal “…to develop the military’s capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran’s nuclear program.” More than 100 Israeli warplanes -- including F-16 and F-15 fighters, refueling tankers and helicopters for pilot rescue - participated in the maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean. The message of the exercise, concludes the Times, was that Israel is prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts fail to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Such an...

For most of 2007, concerns about Iran grew louder. This situation changed dramatically in December, with the release of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities. The NIE, which assessed that Iran had ceased its covert weapons program in 2003, was widely interpreted to indicate that Iran was no longer a threat. As a result, questions were raised whether U.S.-led efforts to ratchet up financial pressure against Tehran, through both UN sanctions and unilateral measures, remained either necessary or viable. In reality, even if Iran no longer has an active covert nuclear weapons program, there would...

Washington and Tel Aviv vow to take 'tangible action' to prevent Iran from acquiring 'nuclear weapons', an Israeli spokesman says. Israeli premier Ehud Olmert's spokesman, Mark Regev, said on Friday that the diplomatic efforts to exert pressure on Iran to give up its uranium enrichment have so far been insufficient. "It is clear that additional steps will have to be taken," he continued. "We are on the same page. We both see the threat... And we both understand that tangible action is required to prevent the Iranians from moving forward on a nuclear weapon," said the Israeli spokesman. Regev then...

Democratic leaders called the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq ‘s assessment of President Bush’s “surge” strategy “incredible.” General David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the top U.S. diplomat in Baghdad are said to be facing a tough grilling when they give testimony to key congressional committees this week. “To be blunt, I find the report incredible—as in hard to believe,” Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.) said. “The claim that there has been significant progress in Iraq directly contradicts what the Democratic leadership in congress and our two presidential candidates have been saying. It...

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Senior Democratic senators challenged a new intelligence report's assessment of President Bush's "surge" strategy Friday, saying the troop increase in Iraq has failed to achieve its strategic goals. The classified National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, which was distributed to key lawmakers this week, sets the stage for the latest public progress report on Iraq that will be delivered Tuesday and Wednesday to congressional committees by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the top U.S. diplomat in Baghdad. "In my judgment, it's too rosy, but there are parts of it that...

When a summary of the N.I.E. on Iran’s nuclear weapons program was released in October 2007, Democrats wasted no time in citing its “findings” that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program. Prominent party members dashed in front of cameras and microphones to bolster their claims that Tehran was ripe for dialogue and the Bush administration was wrong to think otherwise:

WASHINGTON - A new classified intelligence assessment on Iraq says there has been significant progress in security since the last assessment was delivered in August, a senior military official said. In most ways the new National Intelligence Estimate hews closely to the one delivered nine months ago. That document spoke of security gains since the increase in troop levels began in January 2007, the continued high rate of violence and uneven progress on the part of Iraqi security forces. "It does not differ significantly from August's NIE," a congressional official said in describing the document. The officials spoke on condition...

WASHINGTON - A new classified intelligence assessment on Iraq says there has been significant progress in security since the last assessment was delivered in August, a senior military official said. In most ways the new National Intelligence Estimate hews closely to the one delivered nine months ago. That document spoke of security gains since the increase in troop levels began in January 2007, the continued high rate of violence and uneven progress on the part of Iraqi security forces. "It does not differ significantly from August's NIE," a congressional official said in describing the document. The officials spoke on condition...

President Bush said Thursday that Iran has declared that it wants to be a nuclear power with a weapon to "destroy people," including others in the Middle East, contradicting the judgments of a recent U.S. intelligence estimate. The president spoke in an interview intended to reach out to the Iranian public on the Persian new year and to express "moral support" for struggling freedom movements, particularly among youth and women. It was designed to stress U.S. support for Iran's quest for nuclear energy and the prospects that Washington and Tehran can "reconcile their differences" if Iran cooperates with the international...

Old paradigm: Iranian nuclear program no threat to the West. New paradigm: Iran lied about its weaponization and may still be pursuing weapons. The IAEA now wants Iran to prove it isn’t developing weapons, and this time the Europeans have taken the lead in demanding answers: Last Monday, the chief United Nations nuclear inspector gathered ambassadors and experts from dozens of nations in a boardroom high above the Danube in Vienna and laid out a trove of evidence that he said raised new questions about whether Iran had tried to design an atom bomb. For more than two hours, representatives...

Julius and Ethel Rosenberg have gone down in history to stand beside Judas as among the world’s most notorious traitors (it wasn’t fair that the US had the atomic bomb but Soviet Russia didn’t). Perhaps someday soon, the liberal holdovers from the Clinton Administration who strongly influenced the publication of the National Intelligence Estimate that Iran had stopped its efforts to develop a nuclear weapons capability will join the Rosenbergs in their special place in hell.

Iran is still not complying with nuclear inspectors sent to examine their nuclear energy programs, according to a report issued by the international Atomic Energy Association (IAEA). The report states that Iran has carried out a series of experiments associated with the production of nuclear weapons and uranium enrichment, including simulations of warhead detonations and tests involving Polonium 210, a material used to develop nuclear weapons.

Unintelligence on Iranian Nukes Appalling gamesmanship at the CIA. by Michael Rubin 02/25/2008 Unintelligence on Iranian Nukes Appalling gamesmanship at the CIA. by Michael Rubin 02/25/2008, Volume 013, Issue 23 During his February 5 testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell backpedaled from the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and its claim that, "in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." Not only did McConnell testify that the Islamic Republic was working to master the enrichment of uranium--"the most difficult challenge in nuclear production"--but he also acknowledged that, "because of intelligence gaps," the...

...The December NIE made headlines the world over for its "key judgment" that in 2003 "Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programs" -- programs that previously had been conducted in secret and in violation of Iran's Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty obligations. This was a "high confidence" judgment, though the intelligence community had only "moderate confidence" that the program hasn't since been restarted... So it was little wonder that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad quickly called the NIE a "declaration of victory" for Iran's nuclear programs. Diplomatic efforts to pass a third round of U.N. economic sanctions ground to a crawl... Russia decided to...

February 07, 2008, 7:00 a.m. Taking Down the NIEIran is a winning issue for Republicans. By Stanley Kurtz The biggest story of the 2008 campaign so far may not be the fall or rise of any candidate, but the quick and quiet decline of the war on terror as a bone of political contention. Supposedly, the terror war is yesterday’s news, and in any case a losing issue for the Republicans in 2008. Yet this newly congealing conventional wisdom is mistaken. Republicans can win this election on national security. In fact, with its cover story this week, The Economist...

Iran DIDN'T 'Halt' Nuke Program Afterall! Where's the NYTimes' Apology? Remember how the New York Times went apoplectic over last December's NIE estimate that brashly claimed that Iran had suspended their intent to manufacture nuclear arms? It was a front pager and formed the basis of claims that we had illegitimately targeted Iran for rhetorical attacks by many people who opposed the Bush Administration's entire foreign policy regime. Well, as the New York Sun said on the 7th, "what a difference two months make." It appears that the original NIE report was too hasty in its claims that Iran was...

Changing the Iran Nuke Report   By Kenneth R. Timmerman NewsMax.com | Thursday, February 07, 2008 Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell took careful steps to reconsider key portions of a controversial National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear weapons program on Tuesday under sharp questions from members of the Senate Intelligence Committee. McConnell was grilled on the NIE’s disputed conclusion that Iran had shut down its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003 under international pressure by both Democrats and Republicans. Sen. Kit Bond, the ranking Republican on the committee, chided McConnell for allowing the NIE to be...

The senior US intelligence official on Tuesday stressed that a recent report on Iran had concluded that Tehran had halted only one part of its alleged nuclear weapons programme. Admiral Michael McConnell, director of national intelligence, said the November national intelligence estimate had concluded that Tehran had ceased only efforts to covertly enrich uranium and design nuclear warheads. “The only thing that they’ve halted was nuclear weapons design, which is probably the least significant part of the programme,” he told the Senate intelligence committee.

In all the hullabaloo surrounding Super Tuesday's primaries and caucuses, perhaps the most important news story of the day slipped from sight or was reported only in fragments. I have in mind our intelligence community's annual appearance before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. There our spy chiefs appeared to report how the war against terror is going. How I wish I had a seat on that committee just for the day. I would have a few questions of my own. One would be, "Have any of you fellows detected the whereabouts of Boy Clinton?" Since the South Carolina primary...

While political pundits, politicians, hundreds of millions of Americans, and millions more around the world watched Super Tuesday results with confused and baited breath yesterday, a bigger and more important story went almost completely unreported. The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) presented Congress with yet another National Intelligence Estimate (a summary of opinions presented by a committee of representatives from all 17 American intelligence entities). This National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) is uncharacteristically well-written. It coldly, and apolitically presents the good, the bad, the ugly, and surprisingly addressed a long-time suspicion of those who support the war in Iraq about the...

While political pundits, politicians, hundreds of millions of Americans, and millions more around the world watched Super Tuesday results with confused and baited breath yesterday, a bigger and more important story went almost completely unreported. The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) presented Congress with yet another National Intelligence Estimate (a summary of opinions presented by a committee of representatives from all 17 American intelligence entities).************************************ NIE Testimony ******************************************** This National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) is uncharacteristically well-written. It coldly, and apolitically presents the good, the bad, the ugly, and surprisingly addressed a long-time suspicion of those who support the war in...

The head of American intelligence said Tuesday that it is unclear whether Tehran has returned to its production of nuclear weapons in the past six months, and warned that Iran "would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon" by the end of next year. Speaking two months after an American intelligence report cast doubt on Tehran's nuclear ambitions, National Intelligence Director John Michael McConnell made his remarks during an appearance before the Senate Intelligence Committee to present an annual report on threats to the U.S. A National Intelligence Estimate report released in December said that...

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton wants DNI Michael McConnell to redo the National Intelligence Estimate to properly reflect the threat Iran poses to the region and the US. The do-over should emphasize the dual-use nature of its nuclear program, which Bolton claims got glossed over in the original: Today, Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee (and Thursday on the House side) to give the intelligence community's annual global threat analysis. These hearings are always significant, but the stakes are especially high now because of the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. Criticism of the...

How America's own intelligence services have brought international policy on Iran to the edge of collapse IF YOU are locked eyeball to eyeball with an adversary as wily as Iran, it does not make much sense to do something that emboldens your opponent and sows defeatism among your friends. But that, it is now clear, is precisely what America's spies achieved when they said in December that, contrary to their own previous assessments, Iran stopped its secret nuclear-weapons programme in 2003. Iran's jubilant president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, immediately called the American National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) a “great victory” for his country....

The 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate, as well as the skewed reporting around it, is a sign of the "illegitimate politicization" of the American intelligence establishment, according to former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton. The document reportedly said Iran stopped its nuclear weapons production program in 2003. While "Iran's nuclear program is continuing and expanding," Bolton told The Jerusalem Post at a book-signing in a Tel Aviv Steimatzky on Sunday, "the NIE has had a devastating impact on our global efforts to try and constrain Iran." "I know the people who wrote this intelligence estimate," Bolton continued....

Up until a fairly short time ago, scarcely anyone dissented from the assessment offered with “high confidence” by the National Intelligence Estimate [NIE] of 2005 that Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons.”

The head of the United States' missile defense program sought Wednesday to bolster Washington's argument for anti-missile sites in Europe by warning that Iran has sped up development of long-range missiles. Facing tough opposition from Russia and increasing skepticism from Poland, where the US wants to place part of the system, the American officials are trying to convince Europeans that program is crucial to guarding against an emerging threat from Iran. "They are developing missiles today in an accelerated pace," Lt. Gen. Henry Obering said in remarks at the Foreign Ministry in the Czech Republic, where Washington wants to install...

We have had a fairly mixed year. Both good stories and bad were bountiful, and sometimes good and bad news came together to neutralize mega-stories. Take Pakistan, where Pervez Musharraf’s lifting of both his military uniform and his country’s State of Emergency was closely followed by the untimely assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Nobody quite knows what the net effect of these events will be.

The European View on Iran: Fallout from the New U.S. Intelligence Estimate Featuring Neil Crompton, Hans-Peter Hinrichsen, and Nicholas Roche On December 13, 2007, Neil Crompton, Hans-Peter Hinrichsen, and Nicholas Roche addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Mr. Crompton is a political counselor at the British embassy who served until recently as Iran coordinator and head of the Iraq Policy Unit at the British Foreign Office. Dr. Hinrichsen, first secretary for political affairs at the German embassy, has long worked on non-proliferation issues. Mr. Roche is a counselor at the French embassy who has focused extensively on the...

I came back from a trip to Israel in November convinced that Israel would attack Iran," Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official and senior adviser to three US presidents, George W. Bush among them, told the American Newsweek magazine in an article published Friday. Citing conversations he had in Israel with officials in Mossad and the Israeli defense establishment, Riedel concluded that "Israel is not going to allow its nuclear monopoly to be threatened." While some US experts doubt Israel's ability to tackle Iran alone, David Albright, of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, was quoted by...

Vetting the Iran NIE James Lyons December 20, 2007 The recently released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear weapon program not only left many questions unanswered but left our friends and allies caught off-base and confused. I am sure they wonder how they are to support efforts for more stringent sanctions against Iran's enrichment program. Let's not forget that Iran's drive to achieve the enrichment of uranium is the key element in its efforts to attain a nuclear weapons program. However, the NIE has had the reverse effect. Russia has now announced it intends to complete construction of the...

Stupid Intelligence on Iran If Tehran did slow its weapons program, Bush policies probably had something to do with it. JAMES SCHLESINGER The release earlier this month of "key judgments" from the National Intelligence Estimate--including the bald assertion "that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program"--has caused both astonishment here at home and consternation overseas, where it has resulted in confusion about America's policy goals and steadiness. Let us stipulate that the intelligence community has acquired evidence sufficiently persuasive to lead it to reverse its prior judgment that Iran was hard at work developing nuclear weapons. For that...

John Bolton, who served as the United States Permanent Representative to the United Nations from August 2005 to December 2006, spoke with IsraelNationalRadio's Tovia Singer about the recent Bush Administration intelligence report on Iran's nuclear capabilities. The controversial diplomat said the report was more political than intelligence-based, and that it was meant only to undercut President Bush's policies on Iran.

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's president said on Sunday the publication of a U.S. intelligence report saying Iran had halted a nuclear weapons program in 2003 amounted to a "declaration of surrender" by Washington in its row with Tehran. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also dismissed in an interview with state television the prospect of new U.N. sanctions against Iran over its refusal to halt sensitive atomic work.

No Nukes, No War By David Frum December 12, 2007 America's new intelligence estimate on Iran changes nothing--and it changes everything. Last week, the Bush administration released large portions of its latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the Iranian nuclear program. The NIE concluded that Iran had shut down its nuclear weapons program in 2003. The NIE cautioned that there remained much to worry about. Iran could revive its weapons program at any time. And Iran continues to enrich uranium to levels that could serve as the fuel for a nuclear weapon. Still, the NIE went far to lift the...

Is there anyone these liberal rags won't publish?Yup, Newsweek has allowed the one, the only, the wannabe Hitler to publish his own diatribe against Zionism and the United States.  With such great passages as this where could a liberal rag go wrong? The American people do not like to see their leaders fall captive to the Zionist network. Surely the American people would prefer U.S.-inspired policies to those perpetrated by the Zionists. No fair-minded American is happy with the present situation. Regrettably, despite the objections of some of America’s elite, personal and political interests—especially those of the present administration—have prevented...

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad strikes me as the kind of guy who you’d smile at in the hallway, and he’d start fantasizing about marriage. He already sees the new US intel report as a victory. According to this ONE report: “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.”

What the National Intelligence Estimate Does Not Tell You by Lee Boyland December 15, 2007 To understand the real message contained in the NEI, it is necessary to understand the basics of nuclear weapons development. Consider the following analogy based on a hypothetical development of a new synthetic fuel. A research laboratory discovered a new synthetic fuel, which we’ll call Maxifuel. Unfortunately, although it had similarities to gasoline, Maxifuel could not be used in current engines. Driven by geopolitical forces and the rising price of oil, the government decided to develop the new fuel—regardless of cost. To do so required:...