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Keyword: polling

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  • Utilizing The Pew Research Center Political Typology Report [Series]

    07/07/2014 1:41:25 AM PDT · by dignitasnews
    Dignitas News Service ^ | July 7, 2014 | Paul M Winters
    In its recently released report titled Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology, the Pew Research Center has provided conservatives an excellent opportunity to utilize their findings to specifically target our message and utilize resources wisely to capture disaffected Democratic Party voters. The report is one of the most comprehensive analysis of the trends and attitudes which drive the voting decisions of various subsets of the American public. In what will be the first of a running series, Dignitas News Service will provide an overview of the report as well as detailed explanation of the classifications of voter which Pew...
  • Despite Academia's Best Efforts, Reagan Tops in Poll of Modern Presidents

    07/03/2014 5:52:13 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 19 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | July 3, 2014 | Matt Towery
    In past columns, I've mentioned some teachers and professors that I've known who bluntly said that Ronald Reagan was the nation's worst president. It has become rather common in academia to describe the Reagan years as being filled with greed, and later, with deception in the Iran-Contra matter. Ronald Reagan's "trickle down" economic policies are dismissed in many classrooms as the very "voodoo economics" they were so termed by his onetime opponent and later vice president, George H.W. Bush. And Reagan's visible decline as a result of Alzheimer's in his later years is often implied to be a fit...
  • Obama's Supporters Said 'Go Gangsta' -- Too Bad He Listened

    07/03/2014 10:38:21 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 16 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | July 3, 2014 | Larry Elder
    Obama's poll numbers dropped below those of former President George W. Bush. By the end of Bush's term, focus groups were telling pollsters they despised the very four-letter word B-U-S-H. When John McCain faced Obama in 2008, Democrats gleefully slammed McCain's quest as the "third Bush term." Given Obama's light resume and see-no-flaws cheerleading by an adoring media, Obama's fall was inevitable. If absolute power corrupts absolutely, absolute adoration comes close. In practically anointing Obama, our "watchdog" media ignored a thin resume full of red flags. So in four years, Obama shoots from unknown state lawmaker, with little private sector...
  • Poll: Obama worst president since WWII

    07/02/2014 5:23:22 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 32 replies
    The Hill ^ | July 2, 2014 | Justin Sink with Peter Sullivan
    President Obama is the worst president since World War II, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday. The poll finds that 33 percent of voters say Obama is the worst since the war, with George W. Bush trailing in second place at 28 percent. The only other president in double digits, at 13 percent, is Richard Nixon, who resigned from office after the Watergate scandal. The results raise the possibility that voters are choosing the presidents who are freshest in their memory. Or they could just think that this century has produced historically bad presidents. Obama ran in 2008 as...
  • Why Polling Fails - Republicans Couldn’t Predict Eric Cantor’s Loss

    06/12/2014 8:44:16 AM PDT · by Kenny · 47 replies
    The New York Times ^ | JUNE 11, 2014 | FRANK LUNTZ
    ERIC CANTOR wasn’t the only person at a loss for words on Tuesday night. His pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, found itself trying to explain the impossible — how a projected 34 percent lead for the House majority leader 12 days before the election could end up an 11-point loss on Election Day to David Brat of the Tea Party in the Virginia Republican primary. We’ve all been there. There isn’t a pollster alive — me included — who hasn’t had to take the walk of shame, hat in hand, to explain to an angry client why a predicted outcome simply...
  • Hang in There, America! The Day of Political Reckoning is Only Six Months Away

    04/30/2014 10:05:20 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 39 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | April 30, 2014 | Donald Lambro
    WASHINGTON - President Obama's approval rating in a closely- watched poll has sunk to a new low that will likely further damage his party's dimming prospects in this fall's midterm elections. As he returns from a week long, four-nation Asian tour, overshadowed by his mishandling of Russian aggression in Ukraine, he faces a Washington Post-ABC News survey showing his job approval score has sunk to 41 percent. More ominous for Democrats, who now fear they could lose control of the Senate this fall, a majority of voters say "they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president's agenda,"...
  • Running for President? A Known Name Can Help

    04/30/2014 9:49:06 AM PDT · by PaulCruz2016 · 14 replies
    ABC News ^ | 04-30-2014 | Greg Holyk
    When it comes to running for president – at least at this early stage – a famous name sure helps. So it is in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, in which some of the most recognizable potential candidates – Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan – lead a crowded 2016 Republican field, albeit none with anything near a clear advantage. Moving on to a hypothetical matchup between Bush and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat leads, boosted by a huge gender gap and with a more popular clan, as well. Sixty-six percent of Americans express a favorable view...
  • Michigan Miscellany (Rand Paul Polling First In Michigan)

    04/09/2014 1:17:09 PM PDT · by PaulCruz2016 · 30 replies
    Public Policy Polling ^ | 04-09-2014 | Tom Jensen
    It looks like Michigan will remain solidly in the blue column if Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016. She leads her potential Republican opponents in the state by anywhere from 9 to 12 points: it's 46/37 over Chris Christie, 48/39 over Rand Paul, 49/38 over Jeb Bush, and 50/38 over Mike Huckabee. Republicans are split a lot of different ways when it comes to who they'd like as their nominee in 2016. 16% want Rand Paul, 15% each support Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, 11% are for Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush is at 9%, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker...
  • NBC and CBS Hope Pontiff's Popularity Rubs Off On Obama

    03/27/2014 2:04:44 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 28 replies
    Newsbusters.org ^ | March 27, 2014 | Kyle Drennan
    During coverage of President's Obama meeting with Pope Francis on Thursday, both NBC's Today and CBS This Morning hoped the papal visit would boost the commander-in-chief's sinking poll numbers. Today co-host Matt Lauer wondered: "The Pope, enormously popular....Is there something in just rubbing elbows with the Pope for President Obama?" [Listen to the audio or watch the video after the jump] Chief White House correspondent Chuck Todd observed: "I think that the President, particularly right now where his own approval ratings are not so hot, just being seen with the Pope, particularly in some places where there are a lot...
  • CNN Poll: Rand Paul goes where his father never went

    03/16/2014 1:55:55 PM PDT · by PaulCruz2016 · 43 replies
    CNN ^ | 03-16-2014 | CNN
    Washington (CNN) - Rand Paul has done something his father never did - top the list of potential Republican presidential candidates in a national poll. According to a new CNN/ORC International survey, 16% of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they would be likely to support the senator from Kentucky for the 2016 nomination. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, garnered 15%, with longtime Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who's considering another bid for the White House, at 11%. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 GOP presidential candidate, is the only other...
  • MSNBC.com Wildly Spins: 'Obama Approval Ratings Turn Around'

    01/09/2014 5:55:22 PM PST · by Kaslin · 24 replies
    NewsBusters.org ^ | January 9, 2014 | Ken Shepherd
    "Obama approval ratings turn around," exulted the msnbc.com landing page headline for Traci G. Lee's January 9 story, "Positive start to 2014 for Obama: poll." Lee set about spinning the results of the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which shows President Obama sitting atop a 41 percent approval rating, up from a low of 38 percent in December, but still a net negative approval rating. Lee used the slight uptick in approval as a springboard to forecast that the president's economically liberal spending agenda could change his and his party's fortunes (emphasis mine): Obama is likely to use his upcoming State of...
  • The Agony of Frank Luntz

    01/07/2014 9:10:03 PM PST · by campaignPete R-CT · 21 replies
    The Atlantic ^ | Molly Ball
    Luntz—the tubby, rumpled guy who runs the focus groups on Fox News after presidential debates, the political consultant and TV fixture whose word has been law in Republican circles since he helped write the 1994 Contract With America—has always been a hard man to please. But something is different now, he tells me. SNIP. His belief in unfettered capitalism and individual self-reliance appears stronger than ever. He hasn't become disillusioned with his very profitable career or his nomadic, solitary lifestyle. His complaints—that America is too divided ... SNIP "I just gave up, I didn't work on Mitt Romney's campaign. It...
  • Poll: Obamacare support, Obama approval sink to new lows

    11/20/2013 5:17:04 AM PST · by Zakeet · 13 replies
    CBS News ^ | November 20, 2014 | Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto and Fred Backus
    President Obama's job approval rating has plunged to the lowest of his presidency, according to a new CBS News poll released Wednesday, and Americans' approval of the Affordable Care Act has dropped it's lowest since CBS News started polling on the law. Thirty-seven percent now approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president, down from 46 percent in October -- a nine point drop in just a month. Mr. Obama's disapproval rating is 57 percent -- the highest level for this president in CBS News Polls. [Snip] Republicans are nearly unanimous in their disapproval of the law, and...
  • Obama needs his friends back ["cost-shifting inevitable"]

    11/14/2013 1:54:30 AM PST · by Cincinatus' Wife · 13 replies
    Washington Post ^ | November 13, 2013 | E. J. Dionne, Jr.
    ".......The very purpose of insurance reform is to create a broad market in which the less healthy will be able to get coverage at affordable prices. This made a certain amount of cost-shifting inevitable, a truth captured succinctly by the New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn, one of the nation’s premier health policy writers:“You can’t fix health insurance without changing health insurance.”...............A detailed comparison of two Pew surveys — one conducted in December that found Obama with a 55 percent approval rating(with 39 percent disapproving)and the more recent survey with the 12-point approval deficit — shows that, while he has lost support...
  • Obama regime approval plummets

    11/10/2013 7:23:42 AM PST · by TheMantis · 44 replies
    Examiner ^ | 11/10/2013 | Robert Elliott
    Best news in the poll: 60% disapprove of the lawless Obama regime's immigration policies, meaning that the Democrat-controlled Senate's amnesty plan is likely dead in the House. Even 42% of Democrats dislike the way Obama wants to reward criminal foreigners with citizenship, jobs, welfare, and the vote.
  • Gallup has Obama down to 39%

    Finally people are starting to wake up...
  • Ted Cruz is right, the GOPe is wrong: opposition to Obamacare is a winning position

    10/25/2013 9:10:48 AM PDT · by Oldpuppymax · 11 replies
    Coach is Right ^ | 10/25/13 | Kevin "Coach" Collins
    The latest lie from Nancy Pelosi is her claim that the Republican’s 63 seat pick up victory in 2010 was caused by voter anger over the TARP vote in 2009. A newly released analysis of the exit polls from 2010 shows a completely different story. Claiming the high road, the lying Pelosi alleged that the 2009 TARP vote was some kind of “vote what’s good for America not what’s good for you” sacrificial undertaking by Democrats who knew what would happen but voted for TARP anyway This sounds nice but like so much of the rest of liberalism it’s a...
  • The Republican Schism

    10/22/2013 1:48:36 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 10 replies
    RedState ^ | October 22, 2013 | Erick Erickson
    There is a data set within yesterday’s CNN poll that even CNN largely overlooked, but that explains so much of the current tension within the Republican Party. .......The real division within the Republican Party now isn’t even between those who call themselves tea partiers fighting the establishment. “Tea party”, like “conservative” and “Republican”, has less meaning these days and I increasingly dislike using the word. Admittedly though, everyone would consider me one based on the general parameters of what the tea party is.In any event, the real fight within the Republican Party now is between those who believe we actually...
  • Another flawed poll, another reason to expect Republicans to cave in the shutdown battle?

    10/13/2013 11:28:06 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 24 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | October 13, 2013 | MARK TAPSCOTT
    If reports of Republican panic on Capitol Hill are accurate, a big reason is likely the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, which purports to show the public overwhelmingly disapproves of the GOP's role in the government shutdown. And on the surface, the news does indeed look grim for the GOP, as explained by NBC's political editor, Mark Murray:"The Republican Party has been badly damaged in the ongoing government shutdown and debt limit standoff, with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that a majority of Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown, and with the party's popularity declining to...
  • As shutdown drags on, Americans turn to Obama for an endgame

    10/12/2013 6:50:45 PM PDT · by mrsmith · 25 replies
    Yougov.com ^ | October 11 | William Jordan
    "Who is the biggest obstacle to ending the shutdown?" 44% Obama or Democrats in Congress 42% Republicans in Congress
  • Is Cruz Causing a Democratic Wave? Maybe, but Don’t Jump the Gun (liberals lack logic)

    10/11/2013 12:14:01 PM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 37 replies
    Roll Call ^ | October 11, 2013 | Stuart Rothenberg
    [I've clipped the entire piece leading up to his conclusion, where you will note he takes Sen. Ted Cruz to the woodshed for not compromising and looking for the middle ground - but the fact is Texans took Cruz to the U.S. Senate because he stood for what we want and he's following through on his word to the voters.. So you can decide what to do about reading the rest of his blither.] ___________________________________ .......One thing that now appears incontestable is that GOP Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has damaged his party badly in the short term, making the GOP...
  • POLL: AMERICANS FIND LITTLE TO LIKE IN WASHINGTON

    10/11/2013 12:59:38 AM PDT · by barmag25 · 14 replies
    AP ^ | 10-11-13 | BY NEDRA PICKLER AND JENNIFER AGIESTA
    WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans are finding little they like about President Barack Obama or either political party, according to a new poll that suggests the possibility of a "throw the bums out" mentality in next year's midterm elections. The AP-GfK poll finds few people approve of the way the president is handling most major issues and most people say he's not decisive, strong, honest, reasonable or inspiring.
  • Tough Week: Obama’s Approval Rating Hits Lowest On Record

    08/31/2013 12:01:54 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 29 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 30, 2013 | Daniel Doherty
    This was a long time coming, no? Business Insider has the details: President Barack Obama's approval rating has matched its lowest ever recorded in a new NBC News poll. And huge drops in his foreign policy approval combined with poor marks for handling the situation in Syria are to blame. Obama's overall approval rating stands at 44%. The only other time it has been that low in the NBC survey came at the end of 2011, after a bruising debt ceiling fight with Congress that ended in a downgrade of the nation's credit rating. This time, the drop is largely...
  • Gallup explains what went wrong in 2012 (Obama won?)

    06/05/2013 11:45:14 AM PDT · by Seizethecarp · 33 replies
    Washington Post ^ | June 4, 2013 | Scott Clement
    The Gallup Poll’s misfire in the 2012 election was caused by a variety of defects in the way the firm conducts surveys, according to the organization’s top pollster, who provided the most detailed explanation to date of how the firm plans to improve their polling accuracy in future elections. The four factors he listed: 1. Likely voter model shifted too far toward Romney While most likely voter models improved Romney’s 2012 standing, Gallup’s resulted in a larger-than-average four-point shift. In particular, the finding mirrors problems in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, when Gallup’s likely voter model produced larger errors than...
  • New poll: 76% of Nebraskans want to see IRS workers fired or jailed; GOP leads for Senate

    06/05/2013 7:12:14 AM PDT · by The Old Hoosier · 9 replies
    Conservative Intel ^ | 6/5/13 | David Freddoso
    Nebraska voters are very upset about the IRS and Department of Justice scandals, according to a new Conservative Intelligence poll of the state conducted by Harper Polling. Seventy-six percent of likely Nebraska voters believe the IRS workers who targeted conservatives should be fired and/or face legal consequences, the poll shows. And 54 percent said the scandal makes them less likely “to vote for a Senate candidate who supports the Obama Administration.” ...
  • What's an Assault Weapon?

    01/30/2013 12:12:47 PM PST · by Kaslin · 31 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | January 30, 2013 | Jacob Sullum
    Last week, Sen. Dianne Feinstein introduced a new, supposedly improved version of the federal "assault weapon" ban that expired in 2004. But like that earlier law, which the California Democrat also sponsored, Feinstein's bill prohibits the manufacture and sale of guns based on characteristics that have little or nothing to do with the danger they pose. Although arbitrary distinctions are a defining characteristic of "assault weapon" bans, recent polls indicate that most Americans support them. New survey data suggest one possible explanation: Most Americans don't know what "assault weapons" are. Feinstein's bill would ban "157 dangerous military-style assault weapons" by...
  • Unskewed Polling' Creator Launches New Site On How Obama's Win Might Be Based On Voter Fraud

    11/21/2012 7:32:56 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 26 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 11/21/2012 | Brett LoGiurato
    The creator of the so-called "Unskewed" Polling site is now unskewing the actual votes. Last week, Dean Chambers — who admitted he was wrong about the polls shortly after the election — launched BarackOFraudo.com, which attempts to expose "how they stole the election." Its premise centers on the admittedly eye-popping fact that Republican Mitt Romney received sometimes as little as zero votes in certain precincts in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Chambers also alleges that there are "questions" with how votes were counted in Florida and Virginia. You see where this is going — without those four states, President Barack Obama has...
  • The Best or Worst Pollsters in the 2012 Election – How did Nate Silver Do It? (Gallup is Dead Last)

    11/14/2012 8:36:10 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 26 replies
    Patheos ^ | 11/13/2012 | Tim Suttle
    Nate Silver has gotten a lot of press for his near perfect election night predictions. In 2008 Silver gained popularity and influence after he called 49 out of 50 states. Many pundits were predicting that Silver would crash and burn in 2012. Instead, he outperformed his 2008 predictions and now that Florida has been called for president Obama, Silver can tout a perfect record 50 out of 50 states called correctly.How did Silver do it?Only Likely Voters Matter: This is one obvious reason SilverÂ’s method outshines everyone else. Anything other than likely voter models is useless information. This is key....
  • Vanity: It's Time To Let Go Of "They Stole It"

    11/08/2012 6:25:55 AM PST · by M. Dodge Thomas · 82 replies
    11-8-2012 | Self
    Reading the last two days discussion of what happened Tuesday, IMO there is one line of argument that needs to be abandoned because it's both incorrect and counterproductive: "They stole it". The problem with the "vote fraud" theory is that that convincing evidence that it's not correct; for example the actual results were very close to the aggregate polling predictions in the last weeks before the election, see for example: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/07/after-the-storm/ For that to happen you would not only have to rig not only the election but also both the national and state level polling in such a way that...
  • A Slim Edge Opens for Obama As the Closest Contest Concludes

    11/05/2012 2:45:58 PM PST · by STJPII · 25 replies
    http://abcnews ^ | Nov 5, 2012 5:00pm | Gary Langer
    <p>Partisan divisions, Democrats-Republicans-independents, are 35-29-32 percent among likely voters; they were 39-32-29 percent in the 2008 exit poll. The ABC News Political Unit defines the “battleground” states as Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.</p>
  • Infamous Noor Terror Mosque in Ohio is a ........ Polling place

    11/05/2012 12:32:03 PM PST · by Nachum · 12 replies
    Atlas Shrugs ^ | 11/5/12 | Pamela Geller
    One of my readers just received her assigned polling place (above) for tomorrow's election: the Noor terror-linked mosque. Read the 35-page memorandum submitted to the Florida court on the mosque's terror links. Would you want to vote there? Would you trust the results coming out of this hotbed of jihadist activity? And why expose the secular populace to dawah and proselytizing? This is madness. Atlas readers are quite familiar with the Noor mosque. This is the terror mosque that spied on and then ratted out Rifqa Bary to her parents, that she had converted out of Islam. They came out...
  • KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll Results: Minn. Amendments; Presidential Race

    11/04/2012 9:14:13 PM PST · by MplsSteve · 22 replies
    KSTP-TV (ABC Affiliate in Minneapolis-St Paul) ^ | 11/04/12 | Scott Theisen - Staff Reporter
    A constitutional amendment that would define marriage in Minnesota as between 1 man and 1 woman remains today as it was 2 weeks ago, nose-to-nose, too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. 48% of Minnesota likely voters today vote Yes on the marriage amendment, 47% vote No, within the survey's possible sources of error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Yes is up 1 point, No is up 1 point. Yes had led by 1, Yes still leads by 1. Any outcome is possible. In an election in Minnesota today for...
  • CNN poll reaches new heights of absurdity

    11/04/2012 8:43:13 PM PST · by trappedincanuckistan · 8 replies
    Twitchy ^ | November 4, 2012 | Staff
    The poll, released earlier tonight, shows a 49-49 tie among likely voters. But to get that result CNN had to use one of the most skewed samples we’ve seen this campaign (see page 29): Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans. A D+11 sample! By comparison, the electorate in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was merely D+7, according to exit polls. Tweeters were in a state of disbelief: Jon Ortega @dc_jon I heard CNN's national poll is sampled with D+11. When will this insanity and...
  • CNN National Poll: Dead heat between Obama and Romney (R 49%, 0 49% .. + 11% Dem!)

    11/04/2012 5:32:26 PM PST · by Arthurio · 107 replies
    Washington (CNN) – It's all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election. And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll. – Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker – Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November. Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying...
  • Obama Gains Edge in Campaign's Final Days Obama 50% Romney 47%(PEW LV 0 48% R 45%; D+6; Female+8)

    11/04/2012 1:13:19 PM PST · by Red Steel · 149 replies
    Pew Research Center ^ | November 4th, 2012
    Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters. The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinion
  • Benghazi Investigator Slams America and ‘Islamophobes’

    11/02/2012 6:08:08 PM PDT · by bayouranger · 19 replies
    Frontpagemag.com ^ | 02NOV12 | Matthew Vadum
    America is a seething hotbed of “Islamophobia,” filled with ignorant racist rubes who irrationally fear the benign Muslim religion, according to the Obama administration’s lead investigator into the Benghazi atrocities. So said former Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering in more polished, diplomatic language during an Oct. 23 panel discussion at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C. The talk was on “what role the faith community can play in fighting Islamophobia,” a make-believe mental illness that Islamists would love to have listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Radical Islam’s stateside defenders frequently accuse anti-terrorism hawks of “McCarthyism,” hurling...
  • PPP Ohio Poll Questions

    11/02/2012 2:07:55 PM PDT · by Rusty0604 · 2 replies
    Twitchy Who Said What ^ | 11/02/2012 | twitchy
    The Obama cheerleaders-for-hire at Public Policy Polling don’t even bother to hide that they’re proudly push-polling for President Eye Candy. This question appeared on a recent poll of likely voters in Ohio: Which of the Presidential candidates do you trust more to make sure the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share of taxes: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
  • Obama's Lost 13 Percent

    11/02/2012 1:28:03 PM PDT · by RedMominBlueState · 13 replies
    National Review Online/Corner ^ | November 2, 2012 | Jonah Goldberg
    Dear Jonah, I don’t know how much to trust the polls either. But take a look at this graphic in today’s Washington Post: It says 13% of likely voters who voted for Obama in 2008 plan to vote for Romney this time. Obama got a little over 69 million votes in 2008. Thirteen percent of that is over nine million votes. If you just take those votes and add them to the 59 million votes McCain got, Romney wins easily. Now it is not that simple. The turnout is likely to be different this time. Chances not all 69 million...
  • Fox News poll: Race for the White House a dead heat (R 53, 0 42 among "extremely interested")

    10/31/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT · by Arthurio · 129 replies
    With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters. Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate (October 7-9). Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall. Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October. There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back...
  • ‘Cuban Conundrum’ vexes pollsters, Obama

    10/31/2012 4:43:10 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 17 replies
    Miami Herald ^ | October 30, 2012 | Marc Caputo and Patricia Mazzei
    Call it the Cuban Conundrum—a problem for pollsters who find Florida Hispanics are far more Republican than anywhere else in the nation.It’s on full display in the latest Florida International University/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely Hispanic Florida voters showing President Barack Obama clings to a narrow 51-47 percent lead over Republican Mitt Romney.But nationwide,the poll shows,Obama leads by a far bigger margin among likely Hispanic voters.The difference in Florida: Cuban voters. Without them, the FIU poll shows,Obama would handily win likely Florida Hispanic voters 65-32 percent.Not only are Cubans reliable Republican voters—they’re about 70 percent of Miami-Dade’s registered...
  • Gallup suspends daily tracking poll

    10/30/2012 11:41:20 AM PDT · by Tzfat · 15 replies
    Political ^ | 10/30/12 | KATIE GLUECK
    “Gallup will not conduct daily tracking surveys for a second night, Tuesday, Oct. 30, due to the ongoing effects of superstorm Sandy and will continue to reassess the situation on a day-to-day basis,” read a statement from the organization. “Gallup will provide an update on Wednesday about plans from that point forward.” Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83057.html
  • Gallup Polling During Hurricane Sandy (Gallup Suspends Daily Polling)

    10/29/2012 11:39:54 AM PDT · by nhwingut · 23 replies
    Gallup ^ | 10/29/2012 | Staff
    This is a statement from Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport regarding Gallup polling and Gallup Daily tracking during Hurricane Sandy: Gallup has suspended polling for its daily tracking as of Monday night and will reassess on a day-to-day basis. The ultimate effect on the overall picture of polling between now and this weekend, including election polling, will depend on what happens as a result of the storm, about which we will have a better understanding of on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Look for future updates here.
  • New Projection: Romney 52, Obama 47

    10/29/2012 5:09:42 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 31 replies
    Weekly Standard ^ | October 29, 2012 | Fred Barnes
    The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent. While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas. Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate....
  • Vanity - interesting fact about WasPo/ABC Daily Tracking polls (Pay attention Eeyores)

    10/28/2012 9:27:47 PM PDT · by Perdogg · 20 replies
    Per Twitter WaPo/ABC tracking poll has Romney up 1, 49-48. Sample moved from D+4 Fri to D+6 Sat to D+7 today. Romney up 15 w/ indies. WaPo/ABC tracking Thur-Sat has same turnout adv for Dems as 08. In 08 Obama won by 7%, today he loses by 1. Yep... moved from D+4 two days ago to D+7 today. Yet Romney maintained 1 point lead even through the shift.
  • PPP (D) National Tracking Poll: R 49%, 0 48% - 0 job approval at 44%!!

    10/27/2012 9:30:16 PM PDT · by Arthurio · 36 replies
    PPP (D) National Tracking Poll: R 49%, 0 48% - 0 job approval at 44%!!
  • Swingometer: Gallup Party ID figures predict solid Romney win

    10/26/2012 1:19:56 PM PDT · by Palmetto Patriot · 8 replies
    Red State ^ | October 26th, 2012 | Neil Stevens
    We always talk about the independent, swing vote in elections because those tend to be the persuadables. But party ID numbers matter as well, because those partisan voters tend to split better than 90/10 for their party. It is for that reason that Gallup’s new partisan ID split, one that mimics what Rasmussen has been saying all along, predicts nothing less than doom for the Democrats, and a solid, national win for Mitt Romney this year. Ignore Gallup’s headline. They’ve buried the lede so far deep, they’ll be fracking in Australia to bring it to the surface. Demographically the country...
  • On Polls - Good Bad and Ugly From A Campaign Warrior - Part 1, What Real Pollsters Do

    10/25/2012 6:47:37 PM PDT · by GOPFlack · 59 replies
    Self | 10/25/12 | Self
    Part I: Real Pollsters Who Work for Campaigns As we enter the homestretch of this election and we all hang by every thread of polling data, I thought I would share some insights into polling data that I have gleaned from being involved in elections for the past 26 years. Some of this content has been provided by smart posters here, and by other folks like Jay Cost at the Weekly Standard. But some content might surprise you and hopefully allow you to discern between good polls and bad ones, when to be concerned, when to be skeptical and above...
  • Gallup Tracking Poll: R50/O47

    10/25/2012 10:03:39 AM PDT · by tatown · 30 replies
    Gallup ^ | 10/25 | Gallup
    R50/O47
  • TPM Electoral Scoreboard (233 Obama, 195 Romney. Powered by PollTracker.com

    10/24/2012 11:44:43 AM PDT · by Laissez-faire capitalist · 14 replies
    TPM ^ | 10/24/2012 | Staff
    Strongly Obama 184 Strongly Romney 166 Favors Obama 17 Favors Romney 3 Leans Obama 32 Leans Romney 26 Tossup 110 The TPM Electoral Scorebooard is powered by PollTracker.com, the most accurate and up-to-date poll tracking and averaging service on the web. Our scoreboard is designed to be highly reactive to the twists and turns of public opinion! Only states with less than a 2 point margin go into the tossup category. We aso keep editorial assignment of states to an absolute minimum: as long as poll data is available, we let the numbers tell the story.
  • Nate Silver’s Flawed Model- The NY Times number cruncher lets his partisanship show.

    10/22/2012 1:58:03 PM PDT · by Palmetto Patriot · 11 replies
    National Review Onlline ^ | October 22, 2012 | Josh Jordan
    In the days before the first debate in Denver, President Obama held more than a four-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average, and Romney had been left for dead by most of the media. Then the debate came, and overnight Romney seemingly rid himself of the negatives that had been tacked on to him by over $100 million dollars in negative advertising. Now here we are a few weeks later with a dead heat in nationwide polls. As worry built up among Democrats that Romney had tied the race nationally and had clear momentum heading into the final stretch,...