Keyword: polls

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  • The presidential race is over, cue the conspiracy theories

    11/01/2012 12:18:17 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 40 replies
    The Daily Caller ^ | October 30, 2012 | Theo Caldwell
    This race is over, but the conspiracy theories are about to begin. And, boy howdy, are things going to get ugly. To wit, Mitt Romney will defeat Barack Obama for the presidency on November 6, after which there will be hysterical blowback. The election result is quantifiable, with Romney consistently leading in national tracking polls, finding a level at or above 50 percent in many, and closing the necessary gaps in swing states and among demographic groups. Greater evidence can be found, however, in Obama’s sour demeanor and the conduct of his campaign. What a mess. Opinion-peddlers have noted that...
  • Rasmussen: Iowa: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

    11/01/2012 10:41:20 AM PDT · by Anti-Hillary · 10 replies
    Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11-1-12 | Scott Rasmussen
    Thursday, November 01, 2012 Iowa remains neck-and-neck in the closing days of Election 2012, with Mitt Romney now showing a one-point lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds the Republican challenger with 49% support, while President Obama earns 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) like someone else in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. The survey of 750 Likely Voters...
  • GOP pollster: Romney up in Ohio, closing the gap in Wisconsin (R49, O46 in Ohio)

    11/01/2012 10:38:04 AM PDT · by whitey righty · 34 replies
    The Hill ^ | 11/1/2012 | Cameron Joseph
    Mitt Romney has the lead in Ohio and trails narrowly in Wisconsin, according to a new poll for the Republican group Citizens United. Romney leads Obama by 49 to 46 percent in Ohio, according to the poll, and trails Obama in Wisconsin by 49 to 47 percent, according to polling first obtained by The Hill.
  • GOP pollster: Romney up in Ohio,(R 49-46) closing the gap in Wisconsin

    11/01/2012 10:45:08 AM PDT · by Anti-Hillary · 6 replies
    The Hill ^ | 11-1-12 | Cameron Joseph
    Mitt Romney has the lead in Ohio and trails narrowly in Wisconsin, according to a new poll for the Republican group Citizens United. Romney leads Obama by 49 to 46 percent in Ohio, according to the poll, and trails Obama in Wisconsin by 49 to 47 percent, according to polling first obtained by The Hill. Partisan polls should be viewed with some skepticism, and both polls put Romney in a better position than most publicly available data has shown. Obama has a small but steady lead in most Ohio polls, and a slightly wider lead in Wisconsin. The polls also...
  • National Polls, State Polls, and Democrat Turnout

    11/01/2012 9:41:57 AM PDT · by lasereye
    National Review ^ | November 1, 2012 | Jim Geraghty
    NRO is back this morning! Hurrah! Also this morning, I’m scheduled to appear on Chuck Todd’s “Daily Rundown” on MSNBC around 9:40 or so. So, headlining the Morning Jolt is something I wanted to post all day yesterday… Why Do So Many Pollsters Use Samples Where Democrat Turnout Tops 2008? One of the theories floating around about why some pollsters show such a wide disparity in the percentage of Democrats and percentage of Republicans in their samples this year is that since 2008, a portion of right-leaning voters who once identified themselves as Republicans now identify themselves as independents. Thus,...
  • Are there any election watching events planned for Dallas/Fort Worth? (vanity)

    11/01/2012 9:00:47 AM PDT · by Do Not Make Fun Of His Ears · 5 replies
    Self | 11/1/12 | Self
    I and a small group of conservative friends would like to be around like-minded conservatives in some public venue to (hopefully) CELEBRATE the GOP victory.
  • Pew: Yup, Romney's Leading in Early Voting

    11/01/2012 8:20:17 AM PDT · by GonzoII · 28 replies
    Townhall ^ | Nov 01, 2012 | Guy Benson
    November 1, 2012 Pew: Yup, Romney's Leading in Early Voting By Guy Benson 11/1/2012   Welcome to November.  Earlier in the week, one of the oldest and most respected polling firms in America -- Gallup -- produced results based on thousands of voter contacts indicating that Mitt Romney is leading in national early voting by roughly six percentage points.  Last night, another venerable polling outfit confirmed Gallup's findings with a survey of its own.  From Pew Research:   The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike...
  • CBS: Romney Posts Big Leads Among Independents

    10/31/2012 11:43:30 PM PDT · by SeattleBruce · 12 replies
    Big Government ^ | 10/31/2012 | Mike Flynn
    ...There are few things certain in life, but you can count on Democrats not repeating the massive turnout they enjoyed in 2008. That year, Democrats had an 8 point advantage in OH. They had a 6 point advantage in VA and a 3 point advantage in FL. It was their biggest turnout advantage in at least three decades. Quinnipiac, almost fraudulently, assumes Democrats will have the same advantage in OH next week, but will enlarge their advantage in the other two states. VA, according to Quinnipiac will go from D+6 to D+8. Florida, amazingly, will go from D+3 to D+7,...
  • Poll: Romney Up 16% With Pennsylvania Independents

    10/31/2012 6:44:00 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 10 replies
    Breitbart's Big Government ^ | October 31, 2012 | Ben Shapiro
    According to a new poll from Franklin and Marshall, Mitt Romney is just four percentage points behind President Barack Obama … in Pennsylvania. In September, that gap was a full nine points. “Momentum is with Romney,” says poll director Terry Madonna. Madonna thinks that Romney may run out of time to make up that deficit. But the internals of the poll are shocking for Obama. Romney is ahead of Obama in terms of who the public believes can best fix the economy. Obama’s personal favorability is down from 2008; they’re actually at George W. Bush numbers circa 2004. And voter...
  • Fox News poll: Race for the White House a dead heat (R 53, 0 42 among "extremely interested")

    10/31/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT · by Arthurio · 129 replies
    With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters. Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate (October 7-9). Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall. Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October. There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back...
  • That Q Poll Showing Obama Up by Five in Ohio Has a Flaw

    10/31/2012 12:01:13 PM PDT · by Numbers Guy · 16 replies
    PJ Tatler ^ | 10/31/2012 | Bryan Preston
    Is there any reason to believe that Democrats enjoy an 8-point advantage in a state that consistently swings between the parties, mirroring the national vote? I don’t think so. Quinnipiac may also be missing a massive trend: It has chosen not to poll PA anymore at all, saying that it’s “In the bag for Obama.” Both campaigns clearly disagree, as they’re both spending money and time in Pennsylvania in the closing days to capture it. It’s a must-win for Obama, and a nice-t0-have for Romney.
  • Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample

    10/31/2012 11:24:03 AM PDT · by GonzoII · 39 replies
    Townhall ^ | Oct 31, 2012 | Guy Benson
    October 31, 2012 Pennsylvania Poll: Romney Within Four, Despite D+13 Sample By Guy Benson 10/31/2012   Behold, Franklin and Marshall's new poll of Pennsylvania:   Before we get to the internals, notice the basic trend line.  This month, Mitt Romney broke into the mid-40s, while Obama dropped back into in the upper 40s.  Remember a political rule of thumb: An incumbent with universal name recognition who is polling below 50 percent is typically seen as vulnerable. Now, a slightly deeper dive.  Mitt Romney leads independents by 16 points in this poll, 48/32, with 10 percent undecided.  If the Republican...
  • Final CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, FL, VA show Obama up … (Still using D+8 samples)

    10/31/2012 7:04:07 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 24 replies
    Hotair ^ | 10/31/2012 | Ed Morrissey
    We're down to the final week of the election, where we'd normally expect to see pollsters fine-tuning their samples in order to get the most predictive survey results ahead of the election. It's refreshing, therefore, to see the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac partnership decide to buck that trend and stick with consistency. Their polls in the most hotly contested swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia all show Barack Obama edging Mitt Romney --- as long as voter turnout resembles Obama's big win in 2008: President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a new...
  • Morning Jay: A Polling Quandary—in the Buckeye State

    10/31/2012 6:16:22 AM PDT · by TBBT · 20 replies ^ | 10/31/12 | JAY COST
    here is a peculiar divergence between various public opinion polls at the moment. On the one hand, Mitt Romney has built a narrow but durable lead in the national polls, averaging around a 1 percent advantage over the last three weeks. This has cheered the hearts of conservatives everywhere. Obama in Strongsville, Ohio Yet, liberals retort, Obama has a lead in enough swing states to add up to 270 electoral votes, and that is really what matters. What to make of this? For starters, they cannot both be right. If Mitt Romney wins the popular vote by 1 percent or...
  • Mitt Romney set to win, maybe by a mile: Republican momentum makes prez desperate

    10/30/2012 11:18:56 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 30 replies
    The Boston Herald ^ | October 31, 2012 | Michael Graham
    One week from today, the Boston Herald’s front page will either read “Obama Pulls Out Victory” Or “Romney Wins.” (Actually, given that this is the Herald the headline will be something clever like, “He’s Barack In Charge!” or “Sweet Mitt-ory!”) I predict the latter. One week from today, Mitt wins. I’ll even go a step farther. I’ll ask the question poll watchers across America are thinking but afraid to ask: Is this election over? If your source of news is MSNBC or the Boston Globe-Democrat, obviously not. If anything, you think President Obama is on the verge of a massive...
  • Mark October 30 on Your Calendar: Democrat Panic Hits Pandemic Stage

    10/30/2012 10:19:07 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 22 replies
    The Other McCain ^ | October 30, 2012 | Robert Stacy McCain
    COLUMBUS, Ohio - This will be seen in retrospect as the day liberals began to realize that Obama was going to lose the election, the day The Great Wall of Denial (erected by Nate Silver and the Democrat Graveyard Whistling Choir) proved itself too weak to withstand an encounter with reality. Yesterday, Jim Messina called the Romney super-PAC’s ad buy in Pennsylvania “desperate.” Today? Yeah, Obama’s buying ads in Pennsylvania. Does this mean Romney is going to win Pennsylvania? No, but it does mean that it’s close enough that Team Obama couldn’t afford to let Romney air ads unopposed in...
  • Romney starts reserving time in Pennsylvania for last two days of race (Updated)

    10/30/2012 1:13:43 PM PDT · by nhwingut · 41 replies
    Politico ^ | 10/30/2012 | MAGGIE HABERMAN
    Two media-tracking sources say Mitt Romney's campaign has started reserving TV time in Pennsylvania for the final two days of the campaign, including Election Day. The initial placements come as the pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future is buying over $2 million in time there, and as Crossroads is also going up with a buy over $600,000. The Obama campaign, forced to expend resources there, has responded with a defensive buy of over $600,000. The Romney buy is intended to signal the campaign considers the state, which Republicans have made plays for in past presidential cycles but went for Democrats...
  • Larry Sabato

    10/30/2012 11:27:34 AM PDT · by 7thson · 50 replies
    What is the general opinion of Larry sabato? He was just on M Kelly's program saying his data does not show Romney momentum.
  • Halperin: Democrats now on defense in blue states

    10/30/2012 7:55:16 AM PDT · by nhwingut · 11 replies
    HotAir ^ | 10/30/2012 | Ed Morrissey
    Just how much has this race changed since the first debate in October? At the time, Democrats thought they had a pretty good glide path to a narrower win in the Electoral College than in 2008, but a win nonetheless. Almost four weeks later, the Obama campaign is having to buy air time in states previously considered safe, such as Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the only state that never voted for Ronald Reagan in the EC. Mark Halperin tells Morning Joe that while one cannot claim to know how this race will turn out, there is no doubt now that the...
  • Obama's Going to Lose...but Not Because He's Black

    10/29/2012 6:44:08 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 23 replies
    American Thinker ^ | October 29, 2012 | The Drive-By Pundit
    The left is already beginning to point fingers at those they believe are responsible for what is shaping up to be a decisive rout in the making for President Obama and the Democrats on Election Day. The New York Times is among the first out of the blame gate, with an article by Matt Bai taking Bill Clinton to task. Clinton, according to Bai, has foolishly steered the Obama campaign to switch its more promising strategy of attacking Mitt Romney as a serial flip-flopper (in the vein of John Kerry) to one striving to paint him as a mean, evil...
  • Gallup Polling During Hurricane Sandy (Gallup Suspends Daily Polling)

    10/29/2012 11:39:54 AM PDT · by nhwingut · 23 replies
    Gallup ^ | 10/29/2012 | Staff
    This is a statement from Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport regarding Gallup polling and Gallup Daily tracking during Hurricane Sandy: Gallup has suspended polling for its daily tracking as of Monday night and will reassess on a day-to-day basis. The ultimate effect on the overall picture of polling between now and this weekend, including election polling, will depend on what happens as a result of the storm, about which we will have a better understanding of on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Look for future updates here.
  • Latest Rasmussen Polls Project Romney To Win 279+ Electoral Votes

    10/29/2012 3:32:35 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 28 replies
    Breitbart's Big Government ^ | October 29, 2012 | Ben Shapiro
    According to the latest Rasmussen state polls, Mitt Romney is in position to win the presidency; he should win at least 279 electoral votes. Romney leads in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire; Obama leads in Nevada. Wisconsin and Iowa are tied. Were Romney to win both Wisconsin and Iowa, he’d secure another 16 electoral votes, putting him at 295 electoral votes...
  • Campaign Insiders 10-29-2012 [Weekly FOX web show w/ Pat Caddell]

    10/29/2012 3:32:32 PM PDT · by JediJones · 3 replies
    FOX News ^ | 10/29/2012 | FOX News
    A Frankenstorm of Elections 2012 analysis - we will talk experts John LeBoutillier, Doug Schoen, and Pat Caddell. Duration 24:33
  • Why the Gender Gap Won’t Matter in This Election: The gender gap doesn’t matter—and it never has

    10/29/2012 3:18:47 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 12 replies
    The Daily Beast ^ | October 29, 2012 | Linda Hirshman
    You always know the Democrats are in big trouble when the media starts harping on the gender gap. This time it’s “gender gap near historic highs.” Repeat after me: so what? Even when that gap hit its historic high of 20 points, with Al Gore’s near miss in 2000, it didn’t actually put him in the White House. The discussion hit a low point when TV star Lena Dunham and a bunch of her math-challenged friends made a viral video this week off Lesley Gore’s pop classic “You Don’t Own Me” to convince women to support Obama. The video features...
  • Gallup Monday: Romney 51% Obama 46%

    10/29/2012 10:10:42 AM PDT · by nhwingut · 15 replies
    Gallup ^ | 10/29/2012 | Staff
    All registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today, and it included Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic Party's candidates and Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would you vote for [ROTATED: Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats (or) Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans]?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan and their leanings are incorporated into the results.
  • Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48%

    10/29/2012 7:46:06 AM PDT · by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas · 15 replies
    Rasmussen Reports ^ | October 29, 2012 | Rasmussen staff
    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided.
  • New Projection: Romney 52, Obama 47

    10/29/2012 5:09:42 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 31 replies
    Weekly Standard ^ | October 29, 2012 | Fred Barnes
    The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent. While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas. Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate....
  • Is Nate Silver always right?

    10/29/2012 2:04:08 AM PDT · by MacMattico · 41 replies
    For those DU lurkers reading this they'll probably squeal with delight at this thread, but is Nate Silver's record of political predictions really as great as is posted all over the Internet? I know he's with the NY slimes now, but he did predict the house going R in 2010, albeit only with 45 seats changing sides. (low prediction R) and 2008 he was really on, although that was much easier to call. It's killing me because I'm on pins and needles. I like to think with Gallup and Rasmussen actually in agreement Romney is up, but what am I...
  • Rove: Battleground State Polls Will Move Toward Romney

    10/28/2012 10:53:07 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 12 replies
    Newsmax ^ | October 28, 2012 | Stephen Feller
    The lead that Gov. Mitt Romney has carried in national polls since the first presidential debate should be reflected oon in state-by-state polls — indicating a potential Romney victory on election day, Karl Rove said on “Fox News Sunday.” Rove added that as the state polls reflect the national mood, Romney may begin to see states such as Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, come into play for his electoral vote count. “If the margin is as big nationally as it appears in these national polls, then you will have the state polls follow,” he said. “Now we may have something else...
  • Vanity - interesting fact about WasPo/ABC Daily Tracking polls (Pay attention Eeyores)

    10/28/2012 9:27:47 PM PDT · by Perdogg · 20 replies
    Per Twitter WaPo/ABC tracking poll has Romney up 1, 49-48. Sample moved from D+4 Fri to D+6 Sat to D+7 today. Romney up 15 w/ indies. WaPo/ABC tracking Thur-Sat has same turnout adv for Dems as 08. In 08 Obama won by 7%, today he loses by 1. Yep... moved from D+4 two days ago to D+7 today. Yet Romney maintained 1 point lead even through the shift.
  • On Election Day it’s white voters vs. everyone else

    10/28/2012 9:10:56 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 28 replies
    The Grio at NBC News ^ | October 25, 2012 | David A. Love
    Looking at the polls, this presidential election season is poised to give birth to the most racially polarized electorate in U.S. history. Whites are backing Mitt Romney in historic numbers, while Obama is garnering historic levels of support among blacks, Latinos and Asians. While the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has the president in a dead heat with his GOP opponent, recent surveys show wide swings in support based on race. In other words, it looks like white voters versus everyone else. Looking at a composite of polls, Obama’s white support averages 37.9 percent, ranging from 35 percent to 41...
  • Is Rasmussen using D+3, or D+6?

    10/28/2012 7:49:43 PM PDT · by HannibalHamlinJr · 81 replies
    Self | Oct 29, 2012 | Self
    Yesterday morning I believe, in a thread, at least twice it was posted that Rasmussen has moved from a D+3 to D+6 partisan model. I took it that the second post was from a Rasmussen paid subscriber. Do we have confirmation or denial of this? ... Wouldn't normally interrupt into main threads, but this is a pretty important factoid, question about veracity came up on another thread tonight. (I searched ... but without searching body of threads, can't locate it to see if it was confirmed later in the thread.)
  • Mitt Romney holds slight edge over Barack Obama among LI voters (LONG ISLAND?!!)

    10/28/2012 5:43:11 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 12 replies
    Newsday ^ | October 28, 2012 | Laura Figueroa
    President Barack Obama and Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney are virtually tied among Long Island voters, according to a Siena College/Newsday poll. Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts and co-founder of the Bain Capital investment firm, leads slightly among likely Nassau and Suffolk voters -- 47 percent to Obama's 45 percent. Seven percent of respondents said they were undecided or refused to declare their pick, and 1 percent opted for a third-party candidate. The poll has a 3-point margin of error. The results echo national polls that show a tight race leading up to the Nov. 6 election. In Nassau,...
  • Axelrod downplays polls, touts Obama early-voting edge

    10/28/2012 4:57:37 PM PDT · by Libloather · 27 replies
    The Hill ^ | 10/28/12 | Alexandra Jaffe
    Axelrod downplays polls, touts Obama early-voting edgeBy Alexandra Jaffe - 10/28/12 09:36 AM ET A top adviser to President Obama's reelection campaign on Sunday dismissed polls showing Obama lagging GOP candidate Mitt Romney as not reflective of reality. Speaking on CNN's State of the Union, David Axelrod said that recent polls of the race that show Romney with an edge nationally, buoyed by a higher percentage of Americans who believe the Republican nominee would better handle the economy, contradicted what the president’s team is seeing on the ground. "In that particular poll, Candy, that may be the case, but in...
  • National Polls vs Ohio Polls: Which is Right?

    10/28/2012 10:26:59 AM PDT · by TBBT · 21 replies
    The Corner ^ | 10/28/2012 | Josh Jordan
    Ever since the first debate in Denver, Mitt Romney has been on an upward trajectory in the polls. While he has leveled off somewhat over the last week, nationally he has turned a four point deficit into a one point lead. The lead actually jumps to two points if you only include the eight most recent national (non-online) polls. In those polls Romney leads independents by an average of 17.5 points, which is a remarkable increase over the past month, and an amazing reversal of Obama’s 8 point lead with independents in the 2008 election. Romney has now been at...
  • The Two Polls That Have Chicago Terrified

    10/28/2012 7:43:23 AM PDT · by StandAndDeliver1 · 13 replies
    Nationtial Review Online ^ | 10/27/12, 6:10pm | Josh Jordon, The Corner
    For all of the polls that are flying out almost hourly now, there are two common trends emerging: Mitt Romney is leading independents by healthy margins, and who holds the overall lead is entirely dependent on the party split within the sample. As of last night, Romney has a razor thin lead of eight tenths of a point nationally against an average Democratic partisan advantage of 4.4 points. In 2008, Barack Obama won the election by 7.2 points (52.9–45.7) and Democrats outnumbered Republicans by eight points. Compared to the average today, Obama has dropped eight points while only losing 2.6...
  • Minnesota Poll: 0bama 47%, Romney 44%

    10/28/2012 4:16:30 AM PDT · by Arthurio · 39 replies
    As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state. The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent -- a lead within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat's advantage among women since then and picked...
  • How Many States Can Romney Win? (Vanity)

    10/27/2012 10:26:39 PM PDT · by Private_Sector_Does_It_Better · 38 replies
    National ^ | Nov 2008 | Various
    Are you skeptical that Romney can win some of the non-swing states (Penn, Mich, Minn, N.J., Oregon...) that currently are strongly leaning toward Obama? Consider this... In the wave election of 2008, most polling for Indiana was showing McCain (meh) with a 3-5 point lead. Rassmussen, who nailed the general gelection, showed McCain with a 3pt lead on 10/29. Reuters had him ahead by 5pts on 11/3. But a couple of "outlier" polls that last week showed it tied. Sound familiar.... Like this recent poll showing Michigan tied at 48%: Or similar recent polls showing Minn and others tied...
  • PPP (D) National Tracking Poll: R 49%, 0 48% - 0 job approval at 44%!!

    10/27/2012 9:30:16 PM PDT · by Arthurio · 36 replies
    PPP (D) National Tracking Poll: R 49%, 0 48% - 0 job approval at 44%!!
  • The Two Polls That Have Chicago Terrified

    10/27/2012 4:46:12 PM PDT · by TBBT · 22 replies
    The Corner ^ | 10/27/2012 | Josh Jordan
    For all of the polls that are flying out almost hourly now, there are two common trends emerging: Mitt Romney is leading independents by healthy margins, and who holds the overall lead is entirely dependent on the party split within the sample. As of last night, Romney has a razor thin lead of eight tenths of a point nationally against an average Democratic partisan advantage of 4.4 points. In 2008, Barack Obama won the election by 7.2 points (52.9–45.7) and Democrats outnumbered Republicans by eight points. Compared to the average today, Obama has dropped eight points while only losing 2.6...
  • NV: Week 1 Early Voting Turnout

    10/27/2012 12:07:02 PM PDT · by sf4dubya · 16 replies
    Week one early voting / Absentee in. Look at Washoe. Obama doesn't nearly have the lead he did in 2008. If Rasmussen is to be believed, subtract 5% from each of the Dem & GOP columns, then add 55% of the "other" column to GOP and 35% of the "other" column to the Dems.
  • Presidential Polls 2012: Romney Ahead Nationwide, Has a Real Shot at Victory

    10/27/2012 8:23:14 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 13 replies
    PolicyMic ^ | October 27, 2012 | Jake Horowitz, co-founder
    With just 10 days to go until election day 2012 finally arrives, President Obama and Mitt Romney are in the final sprint, and the latest presidential polls reveal the race is a dead-heat. According to Gallup's daily tracking polls, Romney leads 50 to 47. According to Washington Post/ABC, Romney leads 50 to 47, including a national lead of 9 points on who would better handle the economy (52 to 43). President Obama has long been considered the favorite to win election 2012, but these starting numbers beg the question: Could Romney actually win this thing? In short, the answer is...
  • Why I Think Obama Is Toast

    10/26/2012 2:17:36 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 32 replies
    Red State ^ | October 26, 2012 | Dan McLaughlin
    Barack Obama is toast. This is not something I say lightly. I generally try to remain cautious about predictions, because the prediction business is a humbling one. I have never been especially bullish on Mitt Romney, and I spent most of the summer and early fall arguing that this was basically a neck-and-neck race that would go down to the wire. But in the end, two things stand out: One, Mitt Romney has a consistent, significant lead among independent voters, which increasingly looks like a double-digit lead. This is especially clear in national polls, but can also be seen in...
  • The unmaking of a president, 2012

    10/26/2012 1:43:07 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 14 replies
    The Washington Post's Right Turn ^ | October 25, 2012 | Jennifer Rubin
    There is nothing so revealing or, frankly, pathetic as the president of the United States, who has studiously avoided serious news interview shows, going on the Jay Leno show to tell women that Republicans don’t understand that “rape is rape.” It is a window into the mindset of a candidate and a campaign that is pulling its hair out over the gender gap and thinks the way to solve it is to treat women like quivering children. Obama is right to panic. The Associated Press reports: Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Republican Mitt Romney has erased President...
  • Obama - Consistently 47% for Election, 49% for Approval - Is the 2% Difference the Bradley Effect?

    10/26/2012 6:11:03 AM PDT · by zencycler · 12 replies
    Vanity | 10/26/2012 | zencycler
    Some pundits point to Obama's 49% approval rating as a sign that he may win - that incumbents polling at this level generally win, while those polling at or below 47% just before an election generally lose. But I've been noticing that Obama seems stuck at 47% in most election polls, and stuck at 49% in most approval polls. So why the discrepancy? I'm wondering if it's the Bradley Effect at play, and if his actual approval numbers are really at 47%. If so, we'll see some pollsters predicting his win based on a 49% approval the day before the...
  • The White Romney Vote: Based on Race? (Cover keyboard & monitor before reading)

    10/25/2012 10:00:24 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 27 replies
    The Root ^ | October 26, 2012 | Les Payne
    Blacks are accused of backing Obama out of racial loyalty, but white GOP voters get a pass. Little about the GOP candidate appeared to qualify him for the White House as he sweated freely over foreign-policy debate questions Monday night. Clearly ill-suited to be commander in chief, Mitt Romney fidgeted in his chair, fudged his Afghanistan position and, in the cross talk over Iraq, seemed on the verge of proffering another $10,000 bet on whether his position had changed. Despite losing two of three debates, Romney has going for him a poll-obsessed media keen on a close race sustaining their...
  • Obama’s Aura of Defeat

    10/25/2012 9:03:30 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 21 replies
    The New York Times ^ | October 24, 2012 | Ross Douthat
    In an argument that was echoed and amplified around the liberal twittersphere yesterday, New York’s Jonathan Chait made the case that the Romney campaign has bluffed the press into covering the last two weeks of the campaign as though Obama’s losing. Like George W. Bush in 2000, who famously (and probably foolishly) campaigned in California to lend himself an air of inevitability in the closing days of the campaign, Team Romney’s current brash confidence is designed to persuade the media to overlook the underlying numbers that still point to an advantage for the incumbent. And it’s working, Chait argues: The...
  • On Polls - Good Bad and Ugly From A Campaign Warrior - Part 1, What Real Pollsters Do

    10/25/2012 6:47:37 PM PDT · by GOPFlack · 59 replies
    Self | 10/25/12 | Self
    Part I: Real Pollsters Who Work for Campaigns As we enter the homestretch of this election and we all hang by every thread of polling data, I thought I would share some insights into polling data that I have gleaned from being involved in elections for the past 26 years. Some of this content has been provided by smart posters here, and by other folks like Jay Cost at the Weekly Standard. But some content might surprise you and hopefully allow you to discern between good polls and bad ones, when to be concerned, when to be skeptical and above...
  • Gallup Tracking Poll: R50/O47

    10/25/2012 10:03:39 AM PDT · by tatown · 30 replies
    Gallup ^ | 10/25 | Gallup
  • The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

    10/25/2012 11:55:14 AM PDT · by LucianOfSamasota · 58 replies ^ | October 25, 2012 | staff
    The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes. QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama. Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results...