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Keyword: polls

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  • Which Polls Count

    10/02/2012 5:21:50 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 8 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 10/02/2012 | Bruce Walker
    It is very clear that the polls this election year are wildly out of sync. Consider the four polls which were based on several days of surveys ending on September 16. Pew Research had Obama up by 8%, NBC/Wall Street Journal had Obama up by 5%, Monmouth/Survey USA had Obama up by 3%, and Rasmussen had Romney up by 2%. These polls had margins of error which were significantly smaller than the differences between the polls. Some of the polls are bad science or worse. Which polls should be trusted, and which should be treated with great suspicion? Some news...
  • ‘"The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense." (Why the Polls are skewed)

    10/02/2012 4:33:22 AM PDT · by PJ-Comix · 19 replies
    New York Magazine ^ | September 30, 2012 | Jason Zengerle
    On the Friday after the Democratic convention, Tom Jensen tried to reach out and touch 10,000 Ohioans. He wanted to ask them, among other questions, whom they planned to vote for in November: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? This sort of thing is easier—and harder—than you might think. As the director of Public Policy Polling, Jensen has at his disposal 1,008 phone lines hooked up to IVR (interactive voice response) software that enables PPP to make 400,000 automated calls a day. All Jensen needs to do is feed the 10,000 phone numbers into a computer, record the series of questions...

    10/01/2012 7:23:15 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 26 replies
    Powerline ^ | 10/01/2012 | John Hindraker
    Today the Romney campaign is trumpeting the latest CNN/ORC poll which shows President Obama with a three-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, 50%-47%. The Romney campaign likes this result, apparently, because it represents a significant improvement over the last CNN/ORC poll, which came out three weeks ago. In that survey, CNN/ORC found a six-point Obama lead.I wrote about the earlier poll here, pointing out that it obviously over-sampled Democrats. A reader calculated that, given other data in the survey, the six-point difference was consistent with a breakdown of D-38%, R-26% and I-36%. I wrote that the most significant...
  • Polls: Obama Maintains Small National Lead

    10/01/2012 5:20:07 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 16 replies ^ | October 1, 2012 | Guy Benson
    As the presidential debates are set to kick off this week, Barack Obama continues to hold a modest national lead over Mitt Romney.  Here are the top-line numbers among likely voters in three new polls:   Washington Post/ABC News - Obama 49, Romney 47Politico/GWU - Obama 49, Romney 47Rasmussen - Obama 50, Romney 47 (includes leaners) Digging a little deeper, the WaPo/ABC News poll shows a virtually-tied national race, but has Obama up by eleven in the swing states.  This makes little sense.  Obama is expected to clean up in non-swing states with the largest populations: California, New York and...
  • Fox’s Wallace Snaps at Radio Host: Romney ‘In Trouble,‘

    10/01/2012 4:47:55 PM PDT · by Mozilla · 48 replies
    The Blaze ^ | 10-1-12 | Mytheos Holt
    Fox’s Chris Wallace apparently is sick of hearing critiques of polls showing Mitt Romney trailing President Obama, and isn’t afraid to let a wide audience know it. In a clip captured by Media Matters, Wallace tells radio host Mike Gallagher that criticizing the polls is an example of what he terms “craziness,“ and that ”no self-respecting pollster” weights their polls to make party ID even. Those comments followed others that said Romney is “in trouble” and must win the upcoming presidential debate. In fact, he even had some harsh words for Gallagher when the host called out Wallace for thinking...
  • Okay it’s time to see Who should feel good, and who should NOT feel good about the election news

    10/01/2012 2:21:38 PM PDT · by jmaroneps37 ^ | Oct 1, 2012 | Kevin "Coach" Collins
    There is a lot of news about the election out there. For Republicans it seems to span from bad to worse, that is if you don’t look closer. Here’s a closer look and a question: Who should feel good now, and who should not? Several polls have Barack Obama ahead by anywhere from 2 points to 10 points. That would tend to make Democrats feel good. But there is a problem with the polls. To various degrees they over poll Democrats (some saying 52.2 % of all voters will be Democrats) under poll Republicans (some using just 24% Republicans and...
  • Come on, give us some HEADLINES about MITTMENTUM (Plus video PROOF that Romney's winning Ohio!)

    10/01/2012 12:07:56 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 10 replies
    Legal Insurrection ^ | October 1, 2012 | Professor William A. Jacobson, esquire
    Don’t expect it, even though there is good polling news today for Romney-Ryan, as detailed at Hot Air: "Welcome to October! Today must be Poll Day, as media groups try to determine the lay of the land ahead of the first debate on Wednesday. The new Washington Post/ABC News poll put the national race in a virtual tie at 49/47 for Barack Obama, and so does the new Politico/GWU Battleground Poll. In both cases, the national results look more or less like stasis, except the Battleground poll shows a little movement for Romney among independents — and a slight slackening...
  • Poll Shows GOP With Enthusiasm Advantage

    10/01/2012 10:34:00 AM PDT · by TomEwall · 20 replies
    RealClearPolitics ^ | October 1, 2012 | Kyle Adams
    Republicans hold a substantial enthusiasm edge over Democrats as President Obama and Mitt Romney prepare to face off in their first head-to-head debate on Wednesday in Denver. According to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, 64 percent of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, while 48 percent of Democrats say the same....
  • Skewed Columbus Dispatch poll of Ohio shows padded Obama lead

    10/01/2012 10:25:37 AM PDT · by GilGil · 8 replies ^ | 10-1-2012 | Dean Chambers
    When the data from the Columbus Dispatch poll is unskewed by weighting their reported percentages between Romney and Obama to the partisan of the registered voters of Ohio, the overall picture of the race is different. With Republicans weighted 37 percent, Democrats at 36 percent and Independents at 27 percent, the results calculate to Obama leading much closer, by a 47.5 percent to 45.7 percent with about three percent undecided. A large majority of the undecided voters, who usually break for the challenger in a presidential race involving the incumbent president, can be expected to swing toward Romney and lead...
  • Commentary: They can't skew the polls anymore

    10/01/2012 8:59:27 AM PDT · by GilGil · 58 replies ^ | 09-30-12 | Dean Chambers
    The scammed election won't happen, and Mitt Romney will be elected fair and square as president by the voters. The American people will resume the mission of taking their country back from the liberal elitist pabulum pukers.
  • Can the Polls Be Believed?

    10/01/2012 8:35:53 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 54 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 09/30/2012 | Jim O’Sullivan
    A raging war has been underway between Republicans/Romney and the mainstream media (MSM)/polling organizations on the accuracy of many recently reported polls. Both sides have stridently argued their cases in a vicious skirmish that has been decidedly unequal. The Republicans, the Romney campaign, conservative talk radio, conservative new media and Fox News have valiantly fought the Democrats, the MSM, some polling organizations and the Obama campaign organization. Yet given just the megaphones owned by the MSM and Obama's bully pulpit, the battle has been the equivalent of brandishing a popgun at a howitzer...the voting public seemingly is not hearing the...
  • Democrat registration down 500k in swing state, GOP enthusiasm 16% higher and Obama leads: Really?

    10/01/2012 7:57:17 AM PDT · by jmaroneps37 · 23 replies ^ | OCTOBER 1ST, 2012 | Kevin “Coach” Collins
    Media fraudulent pollsters you’ve been busted. Your fake numbers have been exposed by two very unlikely and probably unwilling sources. Last Friday the Leftist cheer leaders at the Third Way “think tank” made what had to be a very sad announcement for them. They told the world their researchers had found Democrat registration has fallen by 490,000 in just Ohio alone and without going into finer numbers had also declined by significant numbers in other important states. Florida Democrat registration is down 4.9% Iowa Democrats have lost 9.5% and remember that “thisclose” swing state of New Hampshire, the one that...
  • The Particulars of Polls

    10/01/2012 3:45:33 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 12 replies ^ | October 1, 2012 | Michael Barone
    As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican voters. First, some points about the limits of polls. Random sample polling is an imprecise instrument. There's an error margin of 3 or 4 percent, and polling theory tells us that one out of 20 polls is wrong, with results outside the margin of error. Sometimes it's easy to spot...
  • Poll finds most think Obama will win first debate

    09/30/2012 7:55:46 PM PDT · by smoothsailing · 62 replies
    Washington Times ^ | 9-30-2012 | By Stephen Dinan and Ben Wolfgang
    September 30, 2012 Poll finds most think Obama will win first debate By Stephen Dinan and Ben Wolfgang DENVER — Mitt Romney has one thing going for him headed into this week’s first presidential debate with President Obama: Voters don’t expect him to do very well. The newest Washington Times/Zogby Poll, released Sunday, found twice as many voters think Mr. Obama will win Wednesday’s kickoff affair as think Mr. Romney will win it — and among self-identified independents, it’s even more pronounced.
  • WE ARE THE 91%: Only 9% of Americans Cooperate with Pollsters

    09/30/2012 7:18:51 PM PDT · by TChad · 66 replies
    PJ Tatler -- PJ Media ^ | September 30, 2012 | Zombie
    One of the most amazing — and significant — statistics of this election season has gone almost completely unnoticed: Only 9% of sampled households gave an answer to pollsters in 2012: It has become increasingly difficult to contact potential respondents and to persuade them to participate. The percentage of households in a sample that are successfully interviewed – the response rate – has fallen dramatically. At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today.
  • Polls have the veracity of fill-in refs in the NFL

    09/30/2012 4:53:18 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 2 replies
    The Anchorage Daily News ^ | September 29, 2012 | Paul Jenkins
    It was excruciating. The blazing lights. The frenzied, screaming crowd. The fourth-and-forever football spiraling into history with eight seconds tick-ticking off the clock. Huge men hurling themselves into the air in the corner of the end zone, crashing into one another, fighting, jostling, clawing for the ball. Green Bay safety M.D. Jennings' pulled it in. Seattle's Golden Tate grabbed for the ball. They hit the ground wrestling for it. Two referees ignored Tate's pass interference, stopped and looked at each other. One signaled to stop the clock; the other, touchdown. The points went to Seattle and the gods who protect...
  • Is polling science, art or witchcraft?

    09/30/2012 2:23:53 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 16 replies
    Hotair ^ | 09/30/2012 | Jazz Shaw
    One of the stories I've been following here at good ole' Hot Gas this month has been Allahpundit's ponderings on precisely what value --- if any --- the polls have in gauging the temperature of the electorate. (Here and here this week.) I've not only read AP's questions and coverage, but many of your responses on the subject, and I've got to be honest here ... I was still completely confused on a couple of fundamental points.One of the first has to do with a subject which the current Oval Office occupant likes to trumpet... arithmetic. (Or, as Joe Biden...
  • Why the polls are all wrong. To set up the claim, "You cheated!"

    09/30/2012 10:36:09 AM PDT · by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin · 47 replies
    30 September 2012 | Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin
    Story after story has come out showing the populace somewhat evenly divided between the two Presidential candidates. However, on the street where the "real" people live, we all know the story is VERY different from the polls. The ONLY people I hear advocating for the Democrat Party are the individuals like the "Obama gave us a cellphone" woman and they do not make up a significant part of the population. Very few cars now sport Obama stickers anymore. They've all been peeled off. The invective used by people when discussing the Democrat Party and Obama is severe. The only conclusion...
  • Election Polling: Why So Much Variation in the Polls? (Pt. 1)

    09/30/2012 7:45:19 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 17 replies
    Christian Post ^ | 09/30/2012 | By Napp Nazworth
    Editor's Note: With the many complaints over election polls in recent weeks, The Christian Post spoke with Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, to better understand election polling. Part one of this series will look at why election polls vary. Part two will address the issue of whether the polls are oversampling Democrats. The previous seven polls for the presidential race at ranges from a seven percentage point advantage for Obama (National Journal) to a one percentage point advantage for Obama (Associated Press). With a little more than a month to go until the election,...
  • Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November

    09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT · by smoothsailing · 158 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 9-29-2012 | Byron York
    September 29, 2012 Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November Byron York For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this year’s presidential race. “For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats,” says the pollster. “Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.” The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage...