Free Republic

A couple of conservative union electricians cause the teleprompter to short-out at Invesco field, requiring that Obama read from notes. His acceptance speech takes four hours and the coffee vendors make millions. Hillary travels to Fort Collins with Patricia Schroeder to have a bake sale to feed the homeless.

We just had a very strong earthquake which fiercely rocked and rolled the main Island of Honshu in Japan. TV broke with news on all channels IN ADVANCE OF EARTHQUAKE, warning people to "get ready". 8:43 a.m. local time Saturday (just about 10 minutes ago). 7:43 p.m. Friday Eastern Time. Then, sure enough, the long, rolling shaking began, and increased in intensity. I estimate the shaking to have gone on for at least 45 seconds. It hit here at 8:45 a.m. It literally gave us 2 minutes to prepare. I have never experienced an advance earthquake warning. The epicenter is...

Republicans (In alphabetical order): Democrats (In alphabetical order):

Happy New Year's Eve to all at Free Republic!!! Make your predictions for 2008. Good Luck!!!

Despite overwhelming military superiority, the world’s most powerful nations failed to achieve their objectives in 39 percent of their military operations since World War II, according to a new University of Georgia study. The study, by assistant professor Patricia L. Sullivan in the UGA School of Public and International Affairs, explains the circumstances under which more powerful nations are likely to fail and creates a model that allows policymakers to calculate the probability of success in current and future conflicts. “If you know some key variables – like the major objective, the nature of the target, whether there’s going to...

Energy and Environment Subcommittee Chairman Nick Lampson (D-TX) has asked the Administrators of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for answers regarding a research satellite which now has a second job helping hurricane forecasters sharpen their predictions about the paths these massive storms will follow. The QuikSCAT satellite, which tracks wind data at the ocean surface, is a NASA research mission which is producing data that NOAA finds valuable for improving predictions on the movement of hurricanes and the point of landfall. The Director of the Hurricane Center recently stated that...

Mexico's 'grand warlock' predicts Castro's death, no border fence in 2007 By THERESA BRAINE | Associated Press January 3, 2007 MEXICO CITY (AP) - Fidel Castro will be dead by May. Presidential candidate-turned-protest leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will fade into obscurity. The anti-immigration wall between the United States and Mexico will not get built. These and a dozen other predictions are what's in store for 2007, Mexico's self-proclaimed "Grand Warlock" said Wednesday in his annual forecast for the new year. Antonio Vazquez, better known as the "Brujo Mayor," has made predictions since 1980 on events ranging from politics and...

Here are my predictions for the results of each Senate race: Arizona: Kyl (R) 54%, Pederson (D) 45%, Mack (L) 1% California: Feinstein (D) 63%, Mountjoy (R) 35%, others 2% Connecticut: Lieberman (I) 52%, Lamont (D) 38%, Schlesinger (R) 9%, others 1% Delaware: Carper (D) 62%, Ting (R) 35%, others 3% Florida: Nelson (D) 57%, Harris (R) 42%, others 1% Hawaii: Akaka (D) 72%, Thielen (R) 27%, Mallan (L) 1% Indiana: Lugar (R) 95%, Osborn (L) 5% Maine: Snowe (R) 66%, Bright (D) 31%, Slavick (I) 3% Maryland: Cardin (D) 50%, Steele (R) 48%, Zeese (G) 2% Massachusetts: Kennedy (D)...

Dick Morris is at it again. Just on Fox, he believes the Dems will take both houses, creating "hell in wheels for Bush and his cabinet," who will, he predicts, spend the next two years under indictment and subpoena. His take is that the Repub base that elected Bush twice will largely sit this one out and those that do vote are more evenly split betweeen Dem and Repub. He also predicts Hillary will win in 08 by "having grown the numerator." In his words, there were 19 million single women in 2000, most of whom did not vote. By...

After looking at the news for the past 10 days or so, I have to wonder how Democrats can possibly fail in their efforts to take both the House and the Senate. The national atmospherics don’t merely favor Democrats; they set the stage for a blowout of cosmic proportions next month. No, that’s not a prediction, since Republicans still have a month to “localize” enough races to hold onto one or both chambers of Congress. But you don’t have to be Teddy White or V.O. Key to know that the GOP is now flirting with disaster.

In a curious way, the former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) scandal will be to the Republican congressional leadership what the Monica Lewinsky imbroglio was to the Clinton presidency. After all the boring scandals — Whitewater, Hillary’s investments, Paula Jones, Travelgate, the FBI files, the Rose Law Firm’s billing records — the Lewinsky scandal seared into everyone’s consciousness. Those who failed to read the many volumes of Whitewater documents published by The Wall Street Journal or who despaired of following the paper trail that led to the Travel Office firings could easily grasp the simple facts of Clinton’s dalliance with Monica....

U.S. scientists are predicting we will soon enjoy precision climate modeling, offering detail and scale only imagined a few years ago. John Drake and David Erickson at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's computer science and mathematics division say it's possible for scientists to create meteorological models that take into account such things as the complete carbon cycle, terrestrial biology, El Ninos and hundreds of other factors. The goal is to provide what scientists call a fully integrated Earth system model that can be simulated every 15 minutes for centuries. "Before, we had to make compromises that ultimately limited the resolution...

As many of you here in West Virginia know, Senator Byrd's wife died recently. And that he was married for 55+ years. Which means the 6-month rule may come into play: i.e. with long, stable marriages, spouses often die within 6 months of each other. . . Which, in turn, means we may well be looking at an Open Seat, come November, or, alternately, Senator Byrd dying AFTER filing/nominating dates close: the "Missouri" scenario that bit John Ashcroft. So, putting on my old hat as a contingency planner (acquired while I was in the Air Force). . . . what...

Two days ago, I began to discuss what I believe to be the best way to predict congressional elections. Developed first by Edward Tufte and later refined by Gary Jacobson, the “Tufte/Jacobson theory” is starting point I have chosen. It argues that we can predict the outcome of a congressional election based upon three factors: exposure, presidential job approval and changes in real disposable income per capita (RDI/cap). It is time to supply the details, supplement the theory with some extra concerns, and make a prediction for 2006.Exposure is the extent to which the party of the President is above...

It seems like an attack on Iran is coming soon. Place your bet as to when the attack will begin. Whoever gets closest to the date and time wins. Attack time must be specified in Month, Day, Year, Hour, and Minute For the hour, don't forget to specify what time zone you are referring to. There is no decision on a prize to be awarded yet except for bragging rights.

CIA Leak Will Blow Up in Democrat Faces November 3, 2005 BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: As many of you know, I have been suspicious of this whole Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame Niger CIA story for a long time, and I wouldn't be surprised -- I can't make the allegation but I wouldn't be surprised -- if before this is all over we learn that the whole thing was an attempted coup, if you will, to send this guy Wilson over to Niger to purposely undermine the Bush war on terror and the Bush administration and hopefully have an effect on...

The prophetic prognosticators are at the prediction game again. Greg Laurie, author of Are We Living in the Last Days?,” is peering through contemporary events like Hurricane Katrina, earthquakes, 9–11, and the tsunami that struck Southeast Asia on December 26, 2004 and claiming that these events are a prelude to the “rapture” of the church. George Noory, host of “Coast to Coast AM,” follows a similar line of thought. “I don't think there’s any doubt. I think we’re really in [the end times].” We’ve read about similar predictions for centuries. Nearly 20 centuries of predictions of the end have yellowed...

Where was the Mayor of New Orleans and what was he doing Friday night while the storm threatened the city? The National Hurricane Center issues periodic forcast tracks for tropical storms and hurricanes. By Friday afternoon it became clear New Orleans was in harm's way. And by Friday night a direct hit was likely.Yet the Mayor did very little until Sunday, when he finally ordered a manditory evacuation. Of all the persons most interested in the safety of the people of New Orleans, the Mayor should have been the most interested. Yet Friday night, when he should have been planning...

After his prophetic prediction of last Sunday: a terror attack in the "coming days" comes true, America's Youngest Political Columnist, C-F Nadd, responds to the current situation in London and elsewhere around the free world. Direct quote: "virtually all Muslims want Islam to take over the world." See the full argument and what Nadd says comes next in the war on terror. The new column is up at Nadd.com! If you're not reading Nadd, you're not in the know ...

PASADENA, Calif. - California residents wondering if tomorrow's forecast will be sunny now can find out if there's also a chance of afternoon tremors. For the first time, they can check a daily earthquake forecast on the Internet just as easily as they check the weather. The Web site, maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey, is updated hourly and calculates the probability of strong ground shaking at specific locations over a 24-hour period. The program is not meant to predict when the "Big One" will occur nor serve as a warning signal for residents to evacuate. Most of the maps...

Clarion Call To Avert West Coast Disaster Burdell Austin For several years many of you have been getting words of warning, dreams, and visions of an earthquake and tsunami in this region [U.S. West Coast]. I join many who sense it is time to mobilize an army of worshiping warriors, who will go before the Lord in humility for those sins committed on the land that give legal right to the adversary to perform acts of violence. As we hear from the Lord regarding specific repentance needed to cleanse the land, we will then have the blood-bought authority of the...

HONG KONG, April 12 (RIA Novosti's Mark Zavadsky) - In the coming three decades, Russia is going to rank third or fourth in the world in terms of the economic growth. The forecast was voiced by Jonathan Anderson, the former IMF representative in Russia and investment research center managing director of Swiss finance group UBS, in his interview with RIA Novosti. In the coming decades, Russia will rival Brazil for the third position in the world as far as the economic growth rate is concerned, trailing only China and India, Anderson said. According to him, Russia can definitely count on...

Eleven days ago, a team of earthquake experts published a scientific paper precisely describing how the titanic tsunami-generating earthquake off Sumatra on Dec. 26 greatly raised risks of a fresh offshore earthquake. The earthquake they described was almost exactly like the one that struck yesterday. The paper's authors and other experts had calculated how the December shock increased stress on the adjacent section of the Sunda Trench, a seam in the earth's crust where one plate dives beneath another. The pressure greatly increased the chance that the seam would fail, they said. The new earthquake was generated when the plates...

Scientist foresaw Sumatran quake Research showed area was ripe for temblor By Kimm Groshong , Staff WriterArticle Published: Sunday, March 06, 2005 - 8:25:08 PM PST PASADENA -- When the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resultant tsunami devastated Sumatra and much of the Bay of Bengal on Dec. 26, Kerry Sieh's premonition became a nightmarish reality. The Caltech geology professor had studied the history of giant earthquakes just south of the epicenter for about a decade and knew full well the damage such a major quake in that part of the world could inflict. He had tried to get the word out...

If only people had been warned. An hour's notice for those living and vacationing along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean might have saved thousands of lives. But predictions, and acting on them, are not simple, geoscience experts say. "It's an inexact science now," said Dr. Laura S. L. Kong, a Commerce Department seismologist and director of the International Tsunami Information Center, an office in Honolulu run under the auspices of the United Nations. According to a NASA Web site devoted to tsunamis, three of four tsunami warnings issued since 1948 have been false, and the cost of the false...

Indian scientists recently found a scientific method of predicting earthquakes quite accurately. The great quake of Sumatra along Andaman fault line on December 26th, could have been predicted if the world would have taken these scientists seriously. If this theory is true, we are in for many mega earthquakes soon. When two or more planets, moon and earth and sun come in one line, these mega earthquakes happen. The sun influences the rotation of earth. Now imagine you are in a train or bus. If all on a sudden the driver pushes the brake, you tend to move forward...

Some knew it was comingE SARAVANAN Chennai, Dec 27:   N Venkatanath, research scholar, and N Rajeshwara Rao, research supervisor, Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras.  Photo: A Prathap         The memories and the trauma caused by the tidal wave that washed out parts of coastal Chennai and other parts of the State yesterday will haunt the minds of the people for a long time to come.         It is a tough task to forget the damage left behind by the wave that was triggered by an earthquake in far off Indonesia. The Richter scale recorded the quake to...

Stunned Dems, jubilant GOP look for lessons By Peter Savodnik November 4, 2004 Americans want gutsy, unwavering leadership on the war on terrorism, judges who won’t make laws, energy independence and a government that cuts taxes and spends less of their money. Above all, they want a president and a Congress that will lead the world and not be led by world opinion. Those were some of the lessons an emboldened Republican Party took away from Tuesday night’s election results, as the GOP held on to the White House for another four years and padded its House and Senate majorities....

I posted my state by state election prediction on F R very early the morning (12:24am) of the election. I found a couple of typos and posted the corrections (post #12) before 2am.

You, dear reader, have the advantage over me. I am writing this Sunday, before the election takes place. The opportunities for me to look foolish are legion. So I will resist both predictions and triumphalism. For months, though, I’ve been assessing President Bush’s vulnerability, but win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months and they are right. First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and...

I had to add this to the political humor category due to her silly comment: After reviewing the final data from the GW-Battleground Poll, Lake made the following prediction: "If Republicans ARE successful in suppressing Democrats' edge in turnout: 49.9% for Kerry to 49.4% for Bush and .7% for Nader/other. However, if Republicans are NOT successful in suppressing Democrats' edge in turnout, then we would predict a slightly larger margin for Kerry: 50.7% for Kerry to 48.6% for Bush and .7% for Nader/other".

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/11/poll-update.html Probability of Best Path for Minimal Bush EV Victory (NM, FL, WI): 91.4% Probability of Best Path for Minimal Kerry EV Victory (PA, OH, FL): 0.2% Analysis: I cleaned out all the old polls (i.e. those released before 10.27) and, lo and behold, it would seem that Bush now has a lead in PA! His lead in OH has strengthened, and his lead in FL, IA, WI remain strong. I still maintain that (A) PA is the true toss-up in this race; (B) Minnesota will be the dark horse Bush victory. Also, to correct my predicted EV score, it...

Feedback Doctor 2004 Presidential Prediction State Bush Kerry Nader Bush% Kerr% Na % Bu Ke Alabama 1,065,707 668,559 5,694 61.25 38.43 0.33 9 Alaska 154,549 86,021 2,430 63.60 35.40 1.00 3 Arizona 813,334 700,166 NA 53.74 46.26 0.00 10 Arkansas 493,423 545,852 5,525 53.74 46.26 0.53 6 California 4,990,484 6,223,016 NA 44.50 55.50 0.00 55 Colorado 945,813 845.322 22,565 52.38 46.38 1.24 9 Connecticut 655,055 773,813 23,932 45.09 53.26 1.65 7 Delaware 156,937 171,324 7,139 46.79 51.08 2.13 3 Florida 3,272,250 3,074,254 75,596 50.95 47.87 1.18 27 Georgia 1,587,990 1,127,810 NA 58.47 41.53 0.00 15 Hawaii 188,478 190,422 NA...

Hi Everyone! Election day is finally here! Praise be to Allah, the all merciful. There are really only six States in play, IA, WI, and OH for Bush, and NH, MN, PA, for Kerry. Frankly, the rest of you, just don't matter. I know the talking heads keep talking about Hawaii, but that is just to keep you up late, to see more laxative commercials. Heck, the chances are better that the Red Sox will win the World Series, than Hawaii will vote Republican. Perhaps, you never should say, never. The bottom line is that Kerry must have Ohio and...

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EV AL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA...

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EV AL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA 1,606,182...

In 2000, the Wisconsin-based costume company began tracking presidential candidate mask sales by five different mask manufacturers and asked 12 different chains to research their sales history. What they found was remarkable: Since 1980, the candidate whose likeness has outsold his opponent's likeness has won the White House. So you can throw out the confusing, contradictory polling numbers being released almost hourly now by Time, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/USA Today/Gallup and Pooh Bear/Piglet/Christopher Robin. The numbers that truly matter, the numbers that unfailingly point to who will emerge victorious in the presidential election, are the number of Bush and...

Also, Bush will win Maine's 2nd district, getting one vote for a theoretical total of 297-241. If the rumors about an unfaithful West Virginia elector are true, it could drop this to 296-241.

Hey folks, this is my first vanity in 6 years of Freeping. So, sorry in advance for the vanity. :) Anyway, I've been watching the Dow Jones Average since Labor Day. Why? Because the old theory is that if, on Election Day, the Dow is higher than it was on Labor Day, the incumbant will win. And vice-versa. This theory has been approx. 90% accurate for the past 100 years, or something like that. Anyway, the Dow was around 10,250 on Labor Day, and it's at 10,000 today, with one trading day left before Tuesday. I've been worrying about this...

The famour Fair model has been updated for the new GDP numbers. Strong economic growth caused Yale economist, Ray Fair, to boost his prediction of President Bush's share of the vote. The prediction of his economic model: Bush wins with 58% of the vote.

William KristolBush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D) House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I) Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota. Stephen HayesKerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I) House: 230 (R), 205 (D) Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers...

Although their current map looks good, take a look at their final prediction for the election. Under the map you can check their assumptions, but yikes!

Friends - as someone who likes to dig deeper into the US elections (I mean the technicalities, my interest always was great, and I am European) I would like to ask the following: if one looks into the poll predictions concerning the election of next week, one at first is confronted with a bewildering array of names and predictions. The latter may vary quite a lot, in that one poll gives Dubya an advantage of 4 procent points (raise a toast!), and then another seems to predict something of a draw, a photo finish. Then there is the meta-poll math,...

(Click the article link to see a topographic image of the San Andreas Fault region of central California.) On September 28, 2004 a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck Central California near the town of Parkfield. The quake caused no injuries and minimal property damage, but was of great interest to American geologists. In 1984 the United States Geological Survey predicted that a Magnitude 6 earthquake would occur on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield within five years of 1988. The prediction was based on a sequence of 6 similar earthquakes that occured every 22 years (on average) from 1857 to 1966....

The most scientifically credible earthquake prediction for California in years has just a few days left for fulfillment - or bust. The forecast, made by an international team of scientists including a UCLA seismologist, is that a quake of magnitude 6.4 or larger will strike within a 12,000-square-mile region of Southern California before Monday. A state panel of earthquake experts who reviewed the prediction says the approach is legitimate but too untested to warrant emergency action. Another difficulty with taking action, they said, is that the region in question is too big. Reaching from the Mojave Desert in San Bernardino...

Electoral Votes: Bush 328, Kerry 210 Popular Vote: Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.1%

THE BOUNCE HITS THE ELECTORAL VOTE  Bush 47.5% – 246 EV | Kerry 49.8% – 292 EV EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 216| Kerry 250| Toss 72 July 20, 2004 Florida finally slips over into the Kerry column after weeks of hanging out with Bush despite the popular vote swing toward Kerry. But, as predicted last week, the Edwards bounce has arrived in the electoral college, where Kerry now leads 292-246. You'll also notice a change in the above graphic. Despite the convenience (and now cliché) of referring to "Red States" and "Blue States", I've...

KERRY TAKES THE LEAD  Bush 46.86% - 254 | Kerry 49.24% - 284 May 25, 2004 Despite a slightly smaller margin of 2.38% in favor of Kerry, compared to last week’s 2.38%, Bush falls behind in the electoral vote after losing Pennsylvania. Two recent polls show Kerry with leads of 5 and 6 in Pennsylvania, returning that state to blue. Pennsylvania now Leans Kerry, with a lead of 1.17% of the two-party vote. This is consistent with historical Pennsylvania trends. Pennsylvania has voted more heavily Democrat than the nation as a whole every year since 1960. Sure, Ronald Reagan...

Stable Race, Bush Still Leads  Bush 49.00 | Kerry 47.59May 11, 2004Despite dire warnings from the pundits about Bush's electability after the USA Today Gallup Poll showed Bush's approval ratings relatively unchanged since February, the race remains tight, with Bush maintaining a slight lead over Kerry in this week's Composite Poll.  Bush leads the Composite Popular Vote 49.0% to 49.6%, and he leads the Electoral Vote Prediction 290-248.   When eliminating the Battleground states (which are in the "Lean" category where the current projected margin for any candidate is less than 6%), Bush has the advantage in states with 182 electoral...

TO PREDICT the outcome of US elections is to invite the fate of the American Civil War general, John Sedgwick. He met his end at the Battle of Spotsylvania, 140 years ago yesterday, while urging the troops under his command to ignore Confederate snipers. “Don’t duck!”, he insisted. “They couldn't hit an elephant at this dis . . . ” and promptly dropped dead from a bullet. Newspapers of late have contained thoroughly confusing messages about the present presidential struggle. For ten solid days, the Bush White House has been placed under a media siege by the Iraqi prisoner abuse...