There has been a good deal of speculation about the state of the US economy lately. Which way are interest rates headed, now that Bernake has replaced Greenspan at the Fed? Will the housing bubble burst or just leak slowly? What will be the influence of the tensions in Iran? While all of these questions are challenging, and may present the opportunity for a quick strike, they are still among the easiest of all economic questions. Why? Because they are short term questions. If we just wait six months or a year, the answers will have already happened. Instead of...