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ZOGBY TUESDAY: Obama 49%; McCain 45%; 6% Undecided.... Developing...

"I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go." - John Zogby New Data will be Released at 1:00AM EST - See the x-tabs FIRST... Register NOW!

ZOGBY SUNDAY: 'In single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama'... Developing...

ZOGBY SUNDAY: Single day of polling, 49% to 46% in favor of Obama... Developing...

Released: October 25, 2008 Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 51.1%, McCain 41.6% McCain gains among independents; Obama's base still solid UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain is making a slow upward turn at week's end, but still trails Democrat Barack Obama by 9.5 points with a week and a half left before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows. Data from this poll is available here "McCain's improvement in the poll, and the fact that there is still a notable slice of the electorate that is either yet undecided or soft in their support of one candidate...

Historical behavioral data ignored in polling is criminal. This from a Criminal. Chumps we are in america to have the CEO himself, proclaim, admit, ....how about “taking the winds out of the sail.” by framing exactly what he is doing,....This is a smoke screen. Clearing his path for what might have turned out different should he not make this very proclamation of his “model.” I will explain, so that,...believe me...all of can understand. Ignoring psychographics and replacing the primary element for quantification with demographics is pure 100% MANipulation. The only way to most accurately measure the liklyhood of how people...

For those who allow the tone for their day to be set by the lates poll information, please consider how much manipulation is actually occurring. For example, Rasmussen has changed his measure of Rep/Dem in his methodology on a regular basis. From his own reports: "In September, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased a percentage point from 33.2% in August to 34.4% in September." "During that same period, the number of Democrats declined slightly from 38.9% to 38.4.%. The remainder, 27.2%, are not affiliated with either major political party." "That gives the Democrats a net...

Zogby just released new state polling. Yes, they are online interactive surveys, but their reliability can't be any worse than some of the traditional phone polls that we've seen. Also, the closeness of so many of the states contradicts the 8 point national lead for Obama that Zogby released today.

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds. The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

The latest Zogby International/Reuters poll today shows that Barack Obama has a sizable national lead over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race for president and would also beat Republican candidate John McCain in the general election. And to help Obama’s argument to be the party’s candidate, Clinton would lose to McCain 50 percent to 38 percent. Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent, the poll found. Reuters/Zogby Poll

Polls are known as a snapshot in time. But some of the cameras taking the pictures before California's Super Tuesday presidential election certainly appeared to malfunction. Chief among them were the polls from Zogby International. On the Republican side, the final Zogby poll showed former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney with a growing lead and 40 percent of the vote, followed by Sen. John McCain at 33 percent. But once the votes started being tabulated Romney was actually substantially behind McCain, who appears on his way to nearly sweeping the state's 170 election delegates. Current balloting results show McCain with 42.1...

Zogby Poll: Obama Leads Top Republicans Telephone survey shows fellow Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Edwards would defeat some GOPers, lose to others UTICA, New York - Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would defeat all five of the top Republicans in prospective general election contests, performing better than either of his two top rivals, a new Zogby telephone poll shows. His margins of advantage range from a 4 percent edge over Arizona Sen. John McCain and a 5 percent edge over Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee to an 18 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the survey shows. Against New York’s...

Zogby Poll: 51% of Americans Want Congress to Probe Bush/Cheney Regarding 9/11 Attacks; Over 30% Seek Immediate Impeachment 67% also fault 9/11 Commission for not investigating anomalous collapse of World Trade Center 7 Kansas City, MO (Zogby International) September 6, 2007 - As America nears the sixth anniversary of the world-churning events of September 11, 2001, a new Zogby International poll finds a majority of Americans still await a Congressional investigation of President Bush' and Vice President Cheney's actions before, during and after the 9/11 attacks. Over 30% also believe Bush and/or Cheney should be immediately impeached by the House...

Zogby and Zogby/Reuters International according to Wall Street Journal online. Final poll Nov. 1st one day before election : Zogby Actual Difference Iowa Kerry +6% Bush +5% Bush +11% W. Virginia Bush +4.5% Bush +13% Bush +8.5% Florida Kerry +1% Bush +5% Bush +6% Wisconsin Kerry +7% Kerry +1% Bush +6% Tennessee Bush +3.3% Bush +3.3% Bush +6% Oregon Kerry +10% Kerry +4% Bush +6% Arkansas Bush +3.2% Bush +9% Bush +5.8% Washington Kerry +11.2% Kerry +7% Bush +4.2% Michigan Kerry +7% Kerry +3% Bush +4% New Hampshire Kerry +4.5% Kerry +1% Bush +3.5% Pennsylvania Kerry +5% Kerry +2% Bush...

As a registered CT voter, I just took a phone poll for Zogby regarding the 2008 Senate race. Interestingly, to register any form of support for Lieberman, I kept having to *ask* where Lieberman was (apparently under 'other', not by party or name). If I didn't ask, I would have been forced into a choice between only the Republican and Democrat candidate. My guess is that most won't ask/won't know to ask, and the results will be as skewed as it sounds like they will.

Now the Zogby poll indicates that Harold Ford, the Democratic candidate to succeed Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) in Tennessee, is running a surprisingly strong race against his three possible Republican opponents. That could be the sixth seat. Zogby has Ford tied with former Rep. Ed Bryant, with each winning 42 percent of the vote, and trailing by a small margin, 43-41, against former Rep. Van Hilleary. A third possible candidate, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, leads Ford by 46-42. Ford, one of a new generation of African-American politicians with considerable appeal across party lines, has two defects as he runs...

Sorry for the vanity, but when I get polled by zogby I like to add my own special sauce to help him out. First, I voted for Kerry last election and I'm a black male. But I think the President is doing an outstanding job and I plan to vote for Al Gore in the primary & next election ;-) The funny thing is she listed a bunch of democrats asking if whom I'd vote for in the primary...she mispronounced a few of them and finally I had to correct her when she said Evan Bonn. Zogby is a joke...I...

In the face of rising gas prices, partisan sniping over Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito, and a resumption of insurgent violence in Iraq, President Bush's job approval rating has slipped into a post-holiday funk, again dipping below 40%, a new telephone poll by Zogby International shows. His approval rating almost mirrors the percentage of respondents (40%) who said the nation overall is headed in the right direction. The deterioration in the President's numbers appears to be the result of eroding support among the investor class and others who supported him in his 2004 re-election bid, said Pollster John Zogby, President...

SAN FRANCISCO - Californians remain overwhelmingly in favor of abortion rights, and no matter how they feel on the issue they believe it's important for Supreme Court nominee John Roberts to have a similar position to their own, a new statewide poll found. According to a Field Poll released Tuesday, 68 percent of registered California voters polled said it was somewhat or very important that Roberts agreed with them on abortion. That was down from 84 percent when pollsters asked the question two years ago about a hypothetical "next person nominated" to the high court. Voters who want to change...

Cops want to question a Manhattan restaurant owner after getting numerous tips that he's the subway flasher caught in the act by camera phone, police sources said last night. Nearly two dozen people have phoned the Daily News and the NYPD to say they believe Dan Hoyt, co-owner of raw-food eateries called Quintessence, is the man whose photo appeared on the cover of Saturday's paper. Investigators contacted Hoyt by phone and asked him to come in for an interview, NYPD sources said. No arrests have been made. Hoyt did not return The News' calls, and his business partner and ex-wife,...

Polling firm Zogby International accurately predicted President Bush's Ohio victory, as well as the defeat of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota, and accurately forecast the outcome of every Senate race in our final battleground poll, conducted October 29 through November 1, 2004. The margin of error was +/- 4.1 percentage points. PRESIDENTIAL VOTE -2004 STATE BUSH KERRY CO-Actual 53% 46% CO-Zogby 49% 47% FL-Actual 52% 47% FL-Zogby 48% 48% IA-Actual 50% 49% IA-Zogby 45% 50% MI-Actual 48% 51% MI-Zogby 46% 52% MN-Actual 48% 51% MN-Zogby 45% 51% NV-Actual 51% 48% NV-Zogby 50% 45% NM-Actual 50% 49% NM-Zogby...

THE NEWS MEDIA IS TRYING TO GET PRO-KERRY POLLING DATA TO MAKE AN EARLY CALL FOR HIM IN ORDER TO DISCOURAGE GOP AFTER-HOURS VOTE... or so says Michael Medved, citing information the GOP has recently received. He then goes on to rip apart the Zogby electoral projection. He notes that Zogby admits calling some states he doesn't even have new polling data for. It's all smoke and mirrors. George Friedman, Medved's guest, says this is actually good for the GOP. He thinks that the greatest danger is that the GOP might become complacent. I don't know if I agree with...

Released: November 01, 2004 Our CallZogby International's 2004 Predictions(as of Nov. 1, 2004 5:00pm)*Please note that Zogby Final predictions will come out Election Day at 5 pm* 2004 Presidential Election Electoral Votes: Bush 247 Kerry 264 Tie Florida (27)   Here's how we got there... 2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures: George Bush (Electoral Vote)  UT 5 KS 6 WY 3 MS 6 ID 4 SC 8 AK 3 IN 11 NE 5 KY 8 ND 3 AL 9 MT 3 GA 15 SD 3 LA 9 OK 7 VA 13 TX 34 John Kerry (Electoral Vote) ME 4 MD 10...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry are tied nationwide in a tense race for the White House, but Kerry leads in six of 10 battleground states, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Sunday. Kerry and Bush were deadlocked at 48 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, which included one day of polling taken after the airing of a videotape from Osama bin Laden. Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 46 percent on Saturday. Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided as Bush and Kerry scoured about 10 remaining battleground states to find the 270...

Kerry Has One-Point Lead Over Bush - Reuters Poll 29 minutes ago Politics - Reuters By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) moved into a one-point lead over President Bush (news - web sites) three days before the presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday. Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday. The White House rivals face a frantic sprint to the finish, hunting for votes in...

Sat Oct 30, 2004 07:02 AM ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a one-point lead over President Bush three days before the presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday. Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday. *I sure do dis-trust this guys polling.*

ATLANTA - President Bush, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Johnny Isakson and a state constitutional ban on gay marriage all hold strong support among Georgia voters in the week before the election, according to the latest poll conducted this week for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and WSB-TV. Bush gained some ground over Democratic challenger John Kerry, leading the Massachusetts senator 52 percent to 42 percent in the last survey by the news organizations before Tuesday's election. The president had a lead of 51 percent to 41 percent in the previous AJC-WSB poll two weeks ago. Eight percent were undecided in that survey,...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a dead heat with President Bush four days before a cliffhanger White House election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll as the Massachusetts senator gained two points on Bush. Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent on Thursday. The deadlock sets up a frantic race to Tuesday's finish in another tight U.S. presidential election, with neither candidate able to establish a clear advantage or break 50 percent. "The election is four days away and we are...

Pollster John Zogby, in a telephone interview with me yesterday, predicted that John Kerry will win the election. "It's close," he said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry." When Zogby talks, politicians listen. He made his bones in the Bill Clinton-Bob Dole election of 1996, when he came within one-tenth of a percentage point of the final tally. Bet me that when the Bushies read what Zogby told me, not just the rhetoric will rise, but...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry pulled into a statistical dead heat with President Bush in a seesawing battle for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Monday. The latest three-day tracking poll showed Kerry and Bush deadlocked at 45 percent apiece barely two weeks before the Nov. 2 election. The president had a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that.

Zogby now has the race back to a tie. It is very difficult, within a multi-day tracking poll, to come up with individual day samples that result in a spike one way and a return spike the very next day.

I want to post a comment about the Zogby/Reuters tracking poll released today that shows John Kerry leading President Bush 47 - 44. And I am going to suggest that there are good reasons to doubt the accuracy of Zogby's results due to statements Zogby has made about what Kerry should do in the campaign and especially Zogby's recent record in the 2002 mid-term elections. Simply put, I believe that Zogby has failed to understand the shift in voter sentiment since 9/11 as it relates to his practice of "weighting" polling results to reflect voter turnout as differentiated by party...

DRUDGE FLASH: "ZOGBY: Kerry Opens Three-Point Lead on Bush... WASHPOST: Bush Opens Five-point lead on Kerry... " "The Zogby poll of 1,214 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points." "This WP poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day. The dates for this poll are 10/4 - 10/10."

Here's a summary of today's polls. 'What's wrong with this picture?' Bush/Cheney : Kerry/Edwards RCP Average 10/3 - 10/10: 47.8% 46.0% Bush +1.8 Zogby (1216 LV) 10/8 - 10/10: 44% 47% Kerry +3 ABC/Wash Post (1438 LV) 10/7 - 10/9 51% 46% Bush +5 Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7 46% 45% Bush +1 GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7 49% 46% Bush +3 Marist (642 LV) 10/4 - 10/5 49% 46% Bush +3 Without Zogby's "poll" Bush is +3

Todays Zogby poll gives Kerry a 3% lead. Zogbys October 7th poll gave Bush a 2% lead. In the October 7th poll, Zogby states that Kerry leads Bush among 18-29s by 56%-31%. In the October 11th poll, Zogby says that Bush has taken over the lead among 18-29s. How can Kerry GAIN 5 points in 4 days, while losing such a huge lead among l8-29s?

One way to display the effects of weighting on a poll, is to show how different perspectives can affect the results. For the polls noted below, I have taken their unweighted sample, and run the numbers through their support figures, and here I display the numbers in the following categories: Headline By 2000 party alignments (per Roper Exit Poll numbers) Unweighted Parity (33.3% each Republican, Democrat, and Independent) Projected Turnout (my own expected t/o by party) CBS News (October 4) Headline 48-47 Bush Unweighted 49-46 Bush Parity 49-46 Bush PT 50-45 Bush Fox News (October 5) Headline 48-45 Bush 2000...

There has been intense interest in the polls this year, and the recent disagreement about the range of position has only highlighted discussion. Some people like to support a poll with results they like, without any sort of examination about why that poll is different from others. And some reject polls on a charge of outright bias or prejudice, which I can understand, given the partisan comments from supposedly objective people like John Zogby and Larry Sabato, but I must caution the readers to be careful to consider the evidence before accepting or rejecting a poll. Let’s start with the...

In my last post on party identification, I promised to turn next to pollsters who weight by party. I'd like to finish up this thread with a discussion today of those who weight on party using exit polls and another post to follow on some middle-way alternatives. First, a bit of review: In the last post, I introduced what we might call the "purist" model of weighting. Most of the surveys done by national media outlets mathematically weight (or adjust) their samples of adults to match known demographic population estimates available from the U.S. Census. These organizations do not, however,...

And in 1980, when Americans seemed to have made up their minds about not voting for President Jimmy Carter, they needed to be assured that his opponent, Republican Ronald Reagan was more than a dangerous ideologue or a Grade B actor. Reagan delivered one of the great knockout blows in presidential debate history: “Are you better off than you were fours ago?”

What should we make of the huge discrepancies in the results of recent national polls? Within the past two weeks, national polls have produced results ranging from a dead heat to a double-digit lead for President Bush. At one extreme, the prestigious Gallup Poll has Bush leading Kerry by 55 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. At the other extreme, a Democracy Corps Poll, released just a few days later, shows the two candidates tied at 49 percent. Which poll should voters believe? Most people probably assume that the Gallup Poll is a lot more credible than a poll...

The Gallup Poll: 1. While likely voters went from a 14 point lead to an 8 point Bush lead, registered voters actually from an 8 point Bush preference to an 11 point Bush preference. In short, the size of the margin would depend on whose GOTV operation is better. 2. The percentage of those certain to vote for Kerry has slipped to 37%. The certain for President Bush now stands at 47%. 3. President Bush now has a 54%-44% job approval rating. With the exception of late December and early January, this is his best showing since last year. 4....

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - - One poll last week had President Bush leading Democrat John Kerry by 13 percentage points while another showed the candidates tied in the U.S election race. What is going on with public opinion polls? As U.S. voters are swamped by a blizzard of rival surveys in the final weeks of the Nov. 2 presidential election campaign, pollsters themselves are facing increasing questions about their methodology and accuracy. Polls do not only measure campaigns. They may also affect them. If one candidate starts trailing in the polls, some of his supporters may become demoralized and decide not...

A poll in 20 swing states published yesterday showed John Kerry still clinging to a narrow lead over President George Bush in the key election battlegrounds, but it raised questions about the reliability of such polls at a volatile point in the campaign. While some other surveys have shown the election as a tight race, a string of recent polls has given the president a double-digit lead, provoking controversy about the various techniques used by the survey groups. Yesterday's poll by Zogby International suggested that although Mr Kerry was losing ground, his support was better distributed in the battleground states,...

September 24, 2004--In Nevada, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush nursing a two point lead over Senator Kerry. Bush attracts 47% of the vote while Senator Kerry has 45%. Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik earns 3% of the vote. This leaves Nevada in the "Toss-Up" column for our Electoral College projection. Four years ago, Bush won the state by four percentage points, 50% to 46%. A month ago, our last survey in the state found the President leading by a single point, 47% to 46% Given a choice of three fiscal policy options, 37% of Nevada voters said that...

There has been intense interest in the polls this year, and the recent disagreement about the range of position has only highlighted discussion. Some people like to support a poll with results they like, without any sort of examination about why that poll is different from others. And some reject polls on a charge of outright bias or prejudice, which I can understand, given the partisan comments from supposedly objective people like John Zogby and Larry Sabato, but I must caution the readers to be careful to consider the evidence before accepting or rejecting a poll. [middle section analyzes various...

The anti-Bushies at www.NOTSOSWIFTVETS.com sent me a message claiming that "a recent Zogby Poll" shows that the public, after having seen the Swift Boat Vets' Ads, have overwhelmingly embraced Kerry in a sort of "reverse bounce." As I've followed recent events, it's my impression that Zogby has become more and more unreliable as it has been shown to be transparently anti-Bush and anti-Israel. Can fellow Freepers point me to more evidence of Zogby's unreliability? I'd love to counter this lie from this Kerry 527.

What's with Zogby? He has Kerry AHEAD in Arkansas; Kerry ahead in Minnesota by 10 points; ahead in New Mexico by 13 points. As a matter of fact, Kerry leads 11 of 16 Battleground states. Mason Dixon, Gallup (Bush up in Iowa by 6 points while Zogby shows a 3 point Kerry lead) disagree. Why are Zogby's results so pro-Kerry? He has a great track record in the last two elections. Is he on to something?

Sunday, September 12, 2004 Bush pulls into tie with Kerry By KEVIN WACK and BART JANSEN, Staff Writers Copyright © 2004 Blethen Maine Newspapers Inc. Elections 2004 Activists surprised by views on bear hunt To top of story President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are in a dead heat in Maine, one of several battleground states in the Nov. 2 presidential election, according to a newspaper poll that also shows most of the state's voters believe it's time for a change in the White House. Both Kerry and Bush had the support of 43 percent of likely voters statewide in...

We have seen a lot of polls thus far in the Bush-Kerry race and we're going to see a lot more.  Often polls by two different survey outfits taken at the same time will show results in pretty stark disagreement.  Literally as I write this, Rasmussen Reports has the race a virtual dead-heat (Bush 47.5, Kerry 46.8), while CBS News has Bush up by 7. All pollsters try to obtain a random, representative sample of voters to represent the full electorate.  In addition to vote choice (i.e., Bush, Kerry, or other), pollsters always ask respondents which party they align themselves...