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Keyword: stagflation

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  • Mortgage volume tanks on tiny rate rise [Yet Another Řbama Economic Triumph]

    06/19/2014 4:57:25 AM PDT · by markomalley · 5 replies
    CNBC ^ | 6/19/2014 | Diana Olick
    It didn't take much to keep potential borrowers away from their mortgage lenders last week—a minimal rise in rates sent volume tumbling 9.2 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Applications to refinance a loan fell 13 percent on week, while applications to purchase a home fell 5 percent on week and are now 15 percent below the volume seen a year ago. "Interest rates increased relative to the previous week, as incoming economic data continues to suggest a pickup in the pace of growth," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Chief Economist. "Some lenders continue to report that they have...
  • Where Is The Inflation Today?

    01/15/2014 2:45:20 PM PST · by grimalkin · 26 replies
    Mises Economic Blog ^ | 1/15/2014 | Hunter Lewis
    People often ask today: if the Fed has created so much new money, why hasn’t it produced more inflation? When the Fed creates masses of new money, it initially flows to Wall Street, which profits from it in a variety of imaginative ways, but from there its path is unpredictable. The Fed inserted into the TARP bill in 2008 the authority to pay interest on bank reserves. Of course this interest is paid by creating even more new money, but it provides an incentive for banks to leave reserves idle. On the other hand, the reserves are not as idle...
  • Should the US Switch to a Parliamentary System? (This Question Hasn't Been Asked Since Jimmy Carter)

    04/23/2013 6:28:06 PM PDT · by DogByte6RER · 29 replies
    Pacific Standard Magazine ^ | April 9, 2013 | Seth Masket
    Institutions Worthy of Our Parties: Should the U.S. Switch to a Parliamentary System? Efforts to curb legislative partisanship have weak track records, so maybe we should consider changing the other side of the equation in order to establish a government that can actually get things done. Rick Hasen has a really interesting paper up discussing partisan polarization and the possibility of changing the Constitution to deal with it. (And you should really read Jonathan Bernstein’s response, too.) Hasen starts off by asking whether we should be considering moving toward a more parliamentary style of government. It’s a fair question. We...
  • Headache: Chicago Fed Activity Index Declines, Existing Home Sales Decline

    04/22/2013 7:10:48 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 3 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 04/22/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Existing home sales were just announced and they were down -0.6% in March after printing at +0.8% in February (but revised downwards to +0.2%). Analysts were expecting +0.4%. A swing and a miss. Median home prices for existing home sales rose 6.4% from February to March. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index plunged in March to -0.23 from a reading in February of 0.44. Analysts were expecting a print of 0.29. Now, THAT is a big swing and a miss! And the Chicago Fed index and leading economic indicators are trending downwards. But Fox’s Eric Bolling says that real GDP...
  • A Republican Sellout Invites Stagflation

    12/26/2012 7:03:20 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 1 replies
    RCM ^ | 12/26/2012 | John Browne
    While it may not be a surprise that the Republicans are preparing to yield on their vow to oppose tax hikes, it should raise investor concerns the world over that an upcoming budget agreement will likely involve a Congressional surrender of its authority to set the federal debt ceiling. In exchange for this, it appears that the Republicans have simply done nothing to halt, or even curb, the dangerous federal spending trajectories or the current drift towards greater state control of the economy. President Obama has politically outmaneuvered the Republicans, even going as far as evoking the Newtown massacre as...
  • U.S. wholesale prices rise 1.1% in September

    10/14/2012 2:02:59 PM PDT · by BenLurkin · 5 replies
    MarketWatch ^ | October 12, 2012| | Greg Robb, MarketWatch
    Producer prices climbed sharply in September for the second month as gasoline prices jumped, a government report said Friday. Producer prices rose 1.1% in September after an increase of 1.7% in August, the Labor Department said. ... The gain in producer prices, tracking the level of inflation at the wholesale level, was due to continued higher energy costs — particularly gasoline. Energy prices advanced 4.7% in September after having risen 6.4% in August. A 9.8% gain in gasoline prices accounted for more than 80% of the September gain, the Labor Department said. Food prices rose 0.2% in September, for the...
  • The Coming Financial Border Controls

    12/28/2011 4:25:33 PM PST · by Razzz42 · 4 replies
    Armstrong Economics ^ | December 27th , 2011 | Martin Armstrong
    OUR ultimate risk is that we will lose all our freedoms before there would be hyperinflation. The borders are closing silently. Tax havens are being attacked and every wire coming into the US is being traced to check who owns that account. Government is desperate to cling to power. It is naive to presume that our economic troubles will cause government to see the light and accept gold as the new money supply. The bankers, who really control government like the financial crack dealers, would never allow it. The attempt to manipulate gold during the Panic of 1869 and force...
  • 'Mini-Stagflation' to Present Big Headache for Bernanke

    08/28/2011 11:15:15 PM PDT · by MontaniSemperLiberi · 18 replies
    cnbc ^ | Friday, 26 Aug 2011 | Jeff Cox
    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used the word “inflation” exactly seven times in this Jackson Hole speech Friday. What he didn’t mention once was inflation’s ugly cousin and its baggage of not only rising prices but also higher unemployment. The prospect of stagflation, indeed, is raising a growing amount of hackles on Wall Street these days on worries that the jobless picture isn’t getting any better and the cost of living—the primary effect of inflation—is rising. Core inflation [cnbc explains] , mainly a measure of price increases not including food and transportation, gained 2.2 percent annualized in the second quarter,...
  • The return of stagflation Obama’s Carter-era policies bring back Carter-era problems

    06/26/2011 5:07:09 AM PDT · by radioone · 11 replies
    The Washington Times ^ | 6-24-11 | Nita Ghei
    The silver lining in the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee Meeting on Wednesday is that quantitative easing seems to be off the table for now. Once the Fed ends its $600 billion bond-buying program at the end of this month, it’s over. The Fed remains committed to maintaining low to near-zero interest rates. Unfortunately, the good news ends there. The economy is doing far worse than expected, as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged. The gross-domestic-product growth rate dropped to 1.8 percent in first quarter of this year, sharply down from 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. Unemployment...
  • Federal Reserve Lowers GDP, Raises Unemployment And Inflation Projections

    06/24/2011 8:45:43 AM PDT · by radioone · 10 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 6-22-11 | Tyler Durden
    The Fed has just taken one small step to acknowledging reality... and Zero Hedge's keyword of 2011: stagflation. The FOMC released its revised 2011-2013 economic forecast, which saw GDP getting slashed, while hiking its inflation and unemployment projections. Specifically, 2011 GDP was lowered from 3.2% to 2.8% even as it raised its average unemployment forecast from 8.6% to 8.8%. Next up: the stampeding herd of Wall Street lemmings follows suit. Below is the consensus 2011 GDP forecast from Wall Street "economists." I.e., from the people who are paid millions each year to maintain the status quo. So much for QE2.
  • Jimmy CarterVille - A Song Parody

    06/20/2011 12:57:27 PM PDT · by PALIN SMITH · 3 replies
    Connecticut Tea Party ^ | June 20, 2011 | Palin Smith
    Connecticut Tea Party patriots are well known for their song parodies. Two of the best perform a duet of "Jimmy Carterville" based on Jimmy Buffet's "Margaritaville".
  • Raging Stagflation: Inflation Higher As Empire State Mfg Index Tumbles, Confirms Contraction

    06/15/2011 9:17:31 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 5 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 06/15/2011 | Tyler Durden
    June brings us much more centrally planned stagflation. CPI increased 0.2% in May, higher than expected 0.1%, and up 3.6% Y/Y. This is the 11th consecutive increase in inflation. And so much for the CPI ex-Food and Energy which came at +0.3% on expectations of 0.2%, up from 0.2% in April: "The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in May, its largest increase since July 2008. The indexes for apparel, shelter, new vehicles, and recreation all contributed to the acceleration, rising more in May than in April. These increases more than offset declines in the...
  • The Return of Stagflation

    05/30/2011 6:10:59 PM PDT · by rabscuttle385 · 19 replies
    The Wall Street Journal ^ | 2011-05-23 | Ronald McKinnon
    'Stagflation" is an ugly word for an ugly situation: persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country's economy. The term was coined by British politician Iain Mcleod in a speech to Parliament in 1965. We haven't experienced it here in the United States since the bad old days of the 1970s. Yet with prices on the rise and unemployment still high, the U.S. economy again seems to be entering stagflation. April's producer price index for finished goods, which excludes services and falling home prices, rose 6.8%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that intermediate goods...
  • Rising Rents Risk U.S. Inflation as Fed’s Restraint Questioned

    05/30/2011 5:53:15 PM PDT · by rabscuttle385 · 23 replies
    Bloomberg | 2011-05-30 | Joshua Zumbrun
    Link only, per FR posting rules
  • This is What Stagflation Looks Like

    05/24/2011 1:01:53 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 7 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | May 24, 2011 | John Ransom
    Even as world equity markets move down with signs pointing to slowing global economic growth, a European Central Bank member is warning about inflation. "We have to take seriously the April rise in long-term inflation expectations and take it as a sign of increasing price perspectives when monetary policy is expansive," said Jens Weidmann, the head of Germany's Bundesbank.Translation: We need to tighten up money to combat inflation.Tighter money supply means slower growth. Of course, with protestors gathered all over the world asking for more handouts, it's possible that we could see governments loosen monetary policy to give out even more...
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Drops To -0.45... Economy Enters "Below-Average" Growth

    05/23/2011 9:57:26 AM PDT · by Qbert · 4 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 05/23/2011 | Tyler Durden
    Another diffusion contraction confirms the stagflation thesis is playing out just as expected. "Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to –0.45 in April from +0.32 in March. April marked the lowest reading of the index since August 2010. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index deteriorated from March, but two of those three categories made positive contributions to the index in April." And more truthiness courtesy of a tumbling Japanese economy and European contraction: "The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to –0.12 in April from +0.08...
  • ECRI: GLOBAL SLOW-DOWN IS COMING

    05/18/2011 3:18:02 PM PDT · by blam · 6 replies
    Pragmatic Capitalist ^ | 5-19-2011 | Cullen Roche
    ECRI: GLOBAL SLOW-DOWN IS COMING 18 May 2011 Cullen Roche I can’t figure out how their indices work for the life of me (they appear to just mirror the S&P 500), but the folks at ECRI have been remarkably accurate in recent years. Lakshman Achuthan, Chief Economist of ECRI, says global industrial growth is set to peak this summer. He says a slow-down is “for sure”, but not necessarily forecasting a new recession.(Click to the site to see the video)
  • Chimerica’s slippery slope to stagflation(US/China are heading to another double-dip scare)

    05/15/2011 4:11:45 PM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 11 replies
    Market Watch ^ | 05/13/11 | Andy Xie
    Caixin Online May 13, 2011, 12:35 a.m. EDT Chimerica’s slippery slope to stagflation Commentary: U.S., China are heading to another double-dip scare By Andy Xie BEIJING ( Caixin Online ) — The global economy is heading toward another double-dip scare, possibly in the third quarter, in what could be a repeat of summer 2010. Financial markets may stumble in a few months, and that could prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to introduce a third round of quantitative easing or an equivalent, which would be another step down the path toward stagflation. In this scenario, China’s current monetary-tightening policy would be...
  • India, Indonesia, China, Wider Asia Buy Physical Gold And Silver On Dip As Stagflation Threatens

    05/11/2011 8:46:30 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 8 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 05/11/2011 | Tyler Durden
    From GoldCoreIndia, Indonesia, China and Wider Asia Buy Physical Gold and Silver on Dip as Stagflation Threatens Gold and silver have extended their recovery and may be headed for the fourth day of gains due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, Chinese inflation (+5.3%) and the real risk that rising oil and commodity prices are leading to an inflation spiral internationally and stagflation. Cross Currency Rates German inflation data this morning was worse than expected jumping to 2.7% from 2.3% due to surging energy costs and despite recent strength in the euro. This has led to the euro falling...
  • Remember Stagflation? Well, It’s Back.

    04/29/2011 6:41:40 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 7 replies
    CNBC Money and Politics ^ | 04/29/2011 | Larry Kudlow
    Stagflation officially returned today with a nasty GDP report that showed only 1.8 percent real growth, but 3.8 percent for the consumer spending deflator. It’s a mini version of the 1970s: low growth, higher inflation. Looked at another way, rising inflation is coexisting with high, near-9 percent unemployment. Keynesians argue this can’t happen. They believe strong growth and too many people working leads to high inflation. But they were blown out of the water way back in the ’70s. And their view is hitting another pothole right now. Supply-siders know that inflation is a monetary problem. Growth is caused by...
  • Obamaflation Arrives

    04/26/2011 1:16:23 PM PDT · by Mozilla · 100 replies
    the american spectator ^ | 4-26-11 | Jeffrey Lord
    President Obama will not be re-elected. Period. Why? Obamaflation has arrived, and this is what it looks like. Milk. A gallon of skim. At the local Giant in Central Pennsylvania: January 11, 2011: $3.20 February 28, 2011: $3.24 March 6, 2011: $3.34 April 23. 2011: $3.48 That would be a 28 cent rise in a mere 102 days, from January to April of this year. The third year of the Obama misadventure. Then there's the celery. Same sized bag. Same store. January 11, 2011: $1.99 a bag. March 6, 2011: $2.49 a bag. A rise of 50 cents in 54...
  • Obama Clears the Way to Shut Down Oil Production in the Permian Basin of West Texas

    04/26/2011 6:28:02 AM PDT · by Tom Hawks · 42 replies · 1+ views
    ChicoER Gate ^ | 4/25/11 | Chuck Wolk
    From the moment Richard Nixon created the EPA in 1970, and signed the Endangered Species Act (ESA) into law, they have been the primary engines of social change used by leftists environmental elitists to destroy America. They have done so by infiltrating the EPA, and the US Fish & Wildlife (USF&W) the agency which decides what animals will be listed as endangered. Now, 28 years later, these renegade environmentalist wackos are prepared to use the ESA to shut down oil and gas operations in portions of Southeast New Mexico and in West Texas, including the state's top two oil...
  • Gas hits $4 a gallon in D.C.

    04/17/2011 5:45:46 PM PDT · by rabscuttle385 · 36 replies
    Gas prices have topped $4 a gallon in the District. AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge says an average gallon of gas cost $4.003 in D.C. on Saturday, up from $3.999 on Friday. Nationally, gas prices are averaging $3.82 a gallon.
  • EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: Bill Gross of Pimco

    04/08/2011 5:58:54 AM PDT · by Hojczyk · 12 replies · 1+ views
    Washington Post ^ | April 7,2011 | Jennifer Rubin
    Bill Gross, founder and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, the world’s largest mutual fund, made news last month when he dumped all U.S. Treasurys from the $1 trillion fund he operates. I spoke with him by phone yesterday afternoon. He had a solemn warning: The United States has a year or two to change course or face a debt crisis akin to what Greece, Portugal and Ireland have experienced. He describes bond traders as “vigilant but not vigilantees,” meaning they are cautious and on the outlook for signs that inflation (“the enemy of bonds”) will rear its head. He explained...
  • Obama’s legacy: Stagflation

    03/05/2011 11:42:41 AM PST · by Hojczyk · 30 replies
    The Hill.com ^ | March 1,2011 | Dick Morris
    OBAMA'S LEGACY: STAGFLATION By DICK MORRIS Published on TheHill.com on March 1, 2011 Obama's failure to support America's allies in the Middle East and his dithering endorsement of chaos in the region will send oil and gasoline prices skyrocketing, triggering a massive bout of stagflation. This vicious cycle of rising prices, decreased consumption, and ever higher prices (as vendors seek to recover higher fixed costs) will cripple the American economy for years to come. This is Obama's true legacy. Consider what he has done to push up oil and gas prices: • Endorsed spreading chaos in the Middle East. •...
  • How the Fed prints money without any ink

    02/27/2011 7:16:51 AM PST · by 1rudeboy · 54 replies
    CNNMoney ^ | February 18, 2011 | James Hamilton, of Econbrowser
    If the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program is printing money, why is the growth of new currency in circulation below average? [] It depends, I guess, on your definition of "money." And your definition of "printing." When people talk about "printing money," your first thought might be that they're referring to green pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents on them. The graph below [omitted] plots the growth rate for currency in circulation over the last decade. I've calculated the growth rate over 2-year rather than 1-year intervals to smooth a little the impact of the abrupt downturn in...
  • U.S. Consumers Feel the Pinch of Surging Oil Prices

    02/24/2011 9:38:07 AM PST · by BenLurkin · 17 replies
    yahoo ^ | Feb 24, 2011 11:10am EST | Aaron Task
    Oil prices were surging again Thursday, with crude futures rising above $100 per barrel in New York trading for a second straight day while London's benchmark Brent crude approached $120 overnight. Despite Saudi Arabia's pledge to keep the spigots open, there's growing concern about potential for shortages amid the upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, where OPEC-member Libya has descended into civil war. Rising energy prices threaten the global economic recovery, a big reason the stock market and prices of non-energy commodities have tumbled in recent days. Economists estimate each 1 cent increase in gas prices takes $1...
  • Remember $4 gasoline? Oil speculators are back

    12/08/2010 9:43:48 PM PST · by ChicagoConservative27 · 29 replies
    WASHINGTON -- Despite weak demand in the U.S. and Europe, oil prices climbed this week to near $90 a barrel, and gasoline prices have passed $3 a gallon on the West Coast and parts of the Northeast. Why? If demand is down and supplies are plentiful - and they are - why would prices be going up? Because Wall Street speculators are driving up oil and gasoline prices again - just in time to dampen holiday cheer. "It's all about investor optimism, and that's been the story about 2010. ... That's the primary reason why we're seeing oil prices at...
  • Are We In For Another Round Of Stagflation?

    11/26/2010 7:19:12 PM PST · by Kaslin · 19 replies · 1+ views
    IBD Editorials ^ | November 26, 2010 | ALVARO VARGAS LLOSA
    We are entering an era of high inflation, to judge by the massive growth of the money supply in the United States, Europe and Asia, and the stubbornness of central bankers who insist that high unemployment demands the creation of even more money. The last time the world went through a similar period was the 1970s. The term that defined the era was "stagflation." In a nutshell, stagflation back then was the result of a recession partly caused by stratospheric oil prices followed by the decision to print tons of money in the hope of inflating the economy out of...
  • Is the Federal Reserve Destroying the Dollar?

    11/14/2010 3:54:16 AM PST · by Scanian · 37 replies
    The American Thinker ^ | November 14, 2010 | Fred N. Sauer
    If you think our economy is in bad shape now, just wait. To be sure, economic prospects for jobs and growth already are bleak, and the Obama administration has increased the national debt in less than two years from over $10.632 trillion in January 2009 to $13.561 trillion in September 2010, resulting in a record 30% increase in public debt. But fear not. Some of our brightest leaders have got the perfect solution to all these problems: "Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, called for the Fed to do more to charge up the economy, including...
  • My Groceries have been Obamasized! (Vanity)

    11/11/2010 7:53:35 AM PST · by frithguild · 64 replies
    November 11, 2010 | frithguild
    It is a war of words, because words stand for ideas. Winston Churchill said that history would be kind to him, because he would write it. Inflation is not coming, it is here. Perhaps calling debasement of the currency “Quantitative Easing” has allowed the government hand of inflation slip into our pockets a little bit less noticed than in the 1970’s. The dirty secret, however, is not what the Fed has been calling it. The Consumer Price Index, used almost universally to measure inflation, does not recognize inflation when packages have been “Obamasized”: That’s because of how the CPI—the Consumer...
  • Palin's Dollar and Zoellick's Gold: An unlikely pair elevate the monetary policy debate.

    11/08/2010 5:54:07 PM PST · by Al B. · 15 replies
    Wall Street Journal ^ | November 9, 2010
    It would be hard to find two more unlikely intellectual comrades than Robert Zoellick, the World Bank technocrat, and Sarah Palin, the populist conservative politician. But in separate interventions yesterday, the pair roiled the global monetary debate in complementary and timely fashion. The former Alaskan Governor showed sound political and economic instincts by inveighing forcefully against the Federal Reserve's latest round of quantitative easing. According to the prepared text of remarks that she released to National Review online, Mrs. Palin also exhibited a more sophisticated knowledge of monetary policy than any major Republican this side of Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan....
  • From Stagnation To Stagflation

    11/04/2010 7:28:54 PM PDT · by blam · 9 replies
    The Daily Reckoning ^ | 11-4-2010 | John Butler
    From Stagnation To Stagflation By John Butler 11/04/10 London, England – With economic growth as measured by real final demand so weak, any increase in inflation which is not associated with a higher rate of real growth will represent a transition from the economic stagnation of the past few years to an even more unsatisfactory state of affairs, a dreaded “stagflation”, which came to plague the US and, to a lesser extent, global economy in the late 1970s. But wait, some might object, US CPI reached double-digits in the late 1970s/early 1980s, surely this is not a fair comparison? To...
  • McDonald’s plans to raise prices in 2011

    10/30/2010 8:24:59 PM PDT · by fightinJAG · 45 replies
    Chicago Breaking Business ^ | Oct. 22, 2010 | Dow Jones Newswire
    McDonald’s Corp. plans to raise menu prices to blunt higher costs, including what would be its first such increase in the U.S. in more than a year — a time when the burger chain’s sales have thrived amid lower prices. The company expects to increase prices in the U.S. and Europe amid projections that commodity costs will rise between 2 percent and 3 percent in 2011, Chief Financial Officer Peter Bensen said Thursday during a conference call after McDonald’s reported a 10 percent increase in third-quarter earnings and added that October sales appear strong. Timing and executing price increases can...
  • U.S. Economy Is Faltering, Inflationary Depression Is In Progress

    10/10/2010 7:50:28 AM PDT · by blam · 26 replies
    The Market Oracle ^ | 10-9-2010 | Bob Chapman
    U.S. Economy Is Faltering, Inflationary Depression Is In Progress Economics / Great Depression II Oct 09, 2010 - 07:40 AM By: Bob Chapman In spite of the disinformation, misdirection and outright propaganda the economy is faltering without the addition of stimulus and quantitative easing. The benefits of inventory accumulation over the past 17 months, which accounted for 60% of the strength in the economy is at an end. We either get more stimulus either governmental or from the privately owned Fed or growth is going to continue to drop. We are looking at indexes that for the most part are...
  • Jimmy Carter Hasn’t Been Mincing Many Words Of Late

    09/22/2010 7:51:42 AM PDT · by edpc · 16 replies
    Yahoo News ^ | 22 Sept 2010 | Brett Michael Dykes
    Since leaving the White House some 30 years ago, former President Jimmy Carter has, for the most part, steered clear of controversy. He's won a fair amount of attention for building houses with Habitat for Humanity, and for the occasional foray into post-presidential diplomacy. (He recently traveled to North Korea to secure the release of an imprisoned American.) And he drew some headlines for publishing a harshly critical book about Israeli policy toward the Palestinians. But on balance, Carter has maintained a relatively quiet life out of office.
  • The Fed Can Create Money, Not Confidence (Inflation vs Deflation vs Stagflation)

    08/24/2010 2:18:55 PM PDT · by SMCC1 · 3 replies
    Wall Street Journal ^ | August 24, 2010 | George Melloan
    "Since deflation, in simple monetarist terms, means too little money chasing too many goods, with a consequent fall in prices, the remedy should be easy. Can't the Federal Reserve create as much money as it wants with just a few key strokes? Well, there are some things money can't buy. In political circumstances like today's, one of them is public confidence."...
  • Buffett Bucks The Trend: Bond Portfolio Positioned For INFLATION

    08/10/2010 6:20:52 AM PDT · by blam · 12 replies
    The Business Insider ^ | 8-10-2010 | Joe Weisenthal
    Buffett Bucks The Trend: Bond Portfolio Positioned For INFLATION Joe Weisenthal Aug. 10, 2010, 8:19 AM BREAKING! Not every major investment guru is walking further out on the yield curve in a bet on deflation. Bloomberg: Twenty-one percent of holdings including Treasuries, municipal debt, foreign-government securities and corporate bonds were due in one year or less as of June 30, Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire said in a filing Aug. 6. That compares with 18 percent on March 31, and 16 percent at the end of last year’s second quarter. The report goes on to speculate that this may be a reaction...
  • Deflation? Try A Tale Of Two Inflations

    06/14/2010 6:59:28 AM PDT · by blam · 8 replies · 355+ views
    The Business Insider ^ | 6-14-2010 | Dian L. Chu
    Deflation? Try A Tale Of Two Inflations Dian L. Chu Jun. 14, 2010, 8:13 AM The crisis in Europe is causing concerns about deflation in the U.S. and other developed economies after weeks of financial-market turmoil. The fears are most pronounced in Europe, where a combination of spending cuts and tax increases could weigh on economic growth and feed into deflation. Financial markets are reflecting a diverging expectation. Gold prices have been soaring—a potential indicator of inflation fears—while many other inflation indicators are going the other way. In the United States, the loose monetary policy has not resulted in any...
  • China May inflation rises, industrial growth slows

    06/12/2010 9:23:09 AM PDT · by BenLurkin · 117+ views
    AP) ^ | Friday June 11, 2010, 3:20 am EDT | Joe Mcdonald, AP Business Writer, On
    China's inflation rose in May amid signs its rebound from the global slump is slowing, adding to pressure on Beijing to keep growth on track and control politically sensitive prices. Consumer prices rose 3.1 percent from a year earlier, up from April's 2.8 percent rate, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Growth in investment and factory output slowed but still was at double-digit levels. Rising inflation has prompted concern Beijing might hike interest rates or take other steps to cool growth that hit 11.9 percent in the first quarter. That could affect the United States, Europe and others that...
  • Lower prices could mean deflation and double-dip recession

    06/08/2010 12:34:01 PM PDT · by Qbert · 38 replies · 34+ views
    CNN Money via Yahoo Finance ^ | 6/8/2010 | Chris Isidore
    Lumber prices are sinking. And while that might make a trip to Home Depot cheaper, it's also a sign that the global economic recovery and the U.S. housing rebound are in danger of stalling. Only a few months ago, inflation was the main worry of many economists. But falling prices for the raw materials of many industries, including lumber, have set off deflation warning bells for some economists, who worry that they could signal another global economic downturn. Prices for framing lumber have tumbled 21% from their peak only five weeks ago, according to figures from the National Association of...
  • Used car prices hit high due to market distortions

    05/15/2010 8:29:12 PM PDT · by qwertyz · 24 replies · 1,036+ views
    Manheim Index Rises Again in April Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis) rose again in April. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for April reached a record level of 120.7, which represented a 13.2% increase from a year ago.
  • Expect Higher Inflation, Not Hyperinflation (Odds of US Hyperinlfation are close to zero)

    04/22/2010 6:43:53 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 29 replies · 505+ views
    Forbes ^ | 04/22/2010 | Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein
    Last year the federal budget deficit was $1.4 trillion, or 10% of GDP, the largest "peacetime" deficit on record. This year will show some improvement, but not much, with a deficit in the vicinity of 8% of GDP. Meanwhile, the Obama administration projects that under its own policies--including higher taxes for the "rich" and an end to hostilities in Iraq--the deficit will never get down to the 3% of GDP it believes is sustainable over the long run, much less the 1.2% that prevailed as recently as 2007. Some analysts have proposed inflating/devaluing our way out of this debt crisis....
  • More "Boom and Bust" Cycles Coming: The Real Reason Buy and Hold Is Dead

    03/29/2010 7:43:47 AM PDT · by Touch Not the Cat · 1 replies · 341+ views
    yahoo ^ | Mar 29, 2010 09:01am | by Aaron Task
    With major averages flat or slightly negative for the past 10 years, many investors have given up on the "buy and hold" strategy that became a mantra in the 1990s. That, of course, has prompted some contrarians to declare that now is the best time to be a buy and hold investor. In this case, the conventional wisdom is right, says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). "I'm not saying 'buy and hold' is a bad thing, unless you're having more frequent recessions," he says. And that is precisely what ECRI expects in the coming...
  • Setting the stage for stagflation (Get ready: inflation & unemployment will rise together)

    02/19/2010 8:03:32 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 21 replies · 862+ views
    Washington Times ^ | 02/19/2010 | Robert P. Murphy
    Prices rose 2.7 percent during 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' recent update of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is a worrisome fact because last year's unemployment rate averaged more than 9 percent. This trend may signal a return of "stagflation," a merger of stagnation and inflation. In the 1970s, stagflation shocked traditional Keynesian economists, whose models said the economy could not suffer from both high unemployment and rapid inflation at the same time. Unfortunately, the Keynesians were wrong, because an economy obviously can experience both evils simultaneously. Ever since the worldwide financial panic started in September...
  • Foreign Demand for US Treasurys Takes Record Fall

    02/16/2010 7:10:57 AM PST · by Red in Blue PA · 90 replies · 3,043+ views
    CNBC ^ | 2/16/2010 | Staff
    The government said Tuesday that foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities fell by the largest amount on record in December with China reducing its holdings by $34.2 billion. The reductions in holdings, if they continue, could force the government to make higher interest payments at a time that it is running record federal deficits. The Treasury Department reported that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell by $53 billion in December, surpassing the previous record of a $44.5 billion drop in April 2009.
  • Forget Deflation This Is Stagflation

    01/20/2010 2:29:16 PM PST · by blam · 6 replies · 405+ views
    The Market Oracle ^ | 1-20-2010 | Adrian Ash
    Forget Deflation This Is Stagflation Economics / Spain Jan 20, 2010 - 04:12 PM By: Adrian Ash Well, this is a pretty pass. Deflation in all things except inflation... THEY WERE SUPPOSED to avert depression. The Bank of England continues to tout their "success". But it looks like the best that money-printing and zero rates might now deliver is '70s-style stagflation, plus '30s-style wealth destruction and a glacé cherry on top. Giving Britain its "stag" – as in stagnation – are economic output, wages, capital investment, real estate prices and now, perhaps, a return of the bear market in London...
  • Is the U.S. 'Turning Japanese'?

    01/14/2010 10:43:27 AM PST · by blam · 8 replies · 380+ views
    Seeking Alpha ^ | 1-14-2010 | Sold At The Top
    Is the U.S. 'Turning Japanese'? by: Sold At The Top January 14, 2010 The striking similarities between trends in the U.S. and Japan during and after their respective bubble epochs are well known by now: raging stock markets and raging property markets fueled by exuberant speculation on the part of “investors” and just about everyone else leading to a final magnificent debt-laden crescendo, the financial system on the brink of destruction and finally a government sponsored zombie-economy with a lifeless on-again off-again recovery. In Japan’s case the initial “recovery” was only one of a string that would encompass the following...
  • Deflation, Inflation Or Stagflation - You Be The Judge!

    01/12/2010 11:08:13 AM PST · by blam · 2 replies · 323+ views
    Zero Hedge ^ | 1-12-2010 | Reggie Middleton
    Deflation, Inflation Or Stagflation - You Be The Judge! Submitted by Reggie Middleton 01/12/2010 07:46 -0500 Auto Sales Central Banks Commercial Real Estate CRE Crude Crude Oil Double Dip Gold Bugs Gross Domestic Product Ireland John Maynard Keynes Maynard Keynes Monetary Policy Money Supply Real estate Reality Recession recovery Sovereign Risk Stagflation Switzerland Toyota United Kingdom In continuing the rant on the possibility of the US entering a stagflationary environment, as was hinted by Alcoa's quarterly report (see "Is My Warning of the Risks of a Stagflationary Environment Coming to Fore?"), I have decided to graphically illustrate the historically most...
  • 'STAGFLATION' AND 'MISERY INDEX' MAKE COMEBACK

    12/15/2009 9:01:37 PM PST · by TheFreedomPoster · 4 replies · 427+ views
    THE FREEDOM POST ^ | December 15, 2009 | Matthew Burke
    Stagflation, the worst of both worlds (anemic economic growth and high inflation) brings back less than fond memories of the 1970's, along with the misery index, which is calculated adding the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. Until the 1960's, Keynesian economists had thought that those two economic events couldn't happen at the same time.