http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/stratfor/ en-us Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:21:01 GMT Focus Forum 15 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2061992/posts The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2061992/posts#comment Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:21:01 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2061170/posts The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified. The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power August 12, 2008 By George Friedman Strategic Forecasting Inc. The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict... Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2061170/posts#comment Wed, 13 Aug 2008 15:29:27 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2061290/posts The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself... Stratfor.com http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2061290/posts#comment Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:39:55 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2055713/posts Dr. Jeffrey W. Runge, chief medical officer at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, told a congressional subcommittee on July 22 that the risk of a large-scale biological attack on the nation is significant and that the U.S. government knows its terrorist enemies have sought to use biological agents as instruments of warfare. Runge also said that the United States believes that capability is within the terrorists’ reach. Runge gave his testimony before a subcommittee on Emerging Threats, Cybersecurity, and Science and Technology that was holding a field hearing in Providence, R.I., to discuss the topic of “Emerging Biological Threats... Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2055713/posts#comment Sun, 3 Aug 2008 13:56:34 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2055003/posts Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri is rumored to have been killed in a July 28 U.S. airstrike in Pakistan Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2055003/posts#comment Fri, 1 Aug 2008 18:23:17 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1987930/posts Five years have now passed since the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Vice President Dick Cheney, in Iraq with Sen. John McCain — the presumptive Republican nominee for president — summarized the five years by saying, “If you reflect back on those five years, it’s been a difficult, challenging, but nonetheless successful endeavor. We’ve come a long way in five years, and it’s been well worth the effort.” Democratic presidential aspirant Sen. Hillary Clinton called the war a failure. The invasion of Iraq probably was a mistake, and certainly its execution was disastrous. But a unilateral and precipitous withdrawal by the... Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1987930/posts#comment Wed, 19 Mar 2008 02:22:56 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1987883/posts ....Our view was that the Bush administration would go to war in Iraq not because it saw it as a great idea, but because its options were to go on the defensive against al Qaeda and wait for the next attack or take the best of a bad lot of offensive actions. The second option consisted of trying to create what we called the “coalition of the coerced,” Islamic countries prepared to cooperate in the covert war against al Qaeda. Fighting in Afghanistan was merely a holding action that alone would solve nothing. So lacking good options, the administration chose... Stratfor Strategic Forecasting http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1987883/posts#comment Wed, 19 Mar 2008 01:01:30 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1953328/posts In the introduction to Strategic Forecasting’s 2008 forecast, Dr. George Friedman writes that “...the US-jihadist war is entering its final phase,” and that “...the destruction of al Qaeda’s strategic capabilities now allows the US to shift its posture…and enables Washington to begin drawing down its forces.” He could not be more wrong. To begin, we're not fighting a “jihadist” war. We're fighting a global war on terrorism that involves the use of all the elements of national power: diplomatic, informational, military, and economic. Our fight is not just with the “jihadists” in the Middle East, but with those individuals worldwide... The New Media Journal http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1953328/posts#comment Mon, 14 Jan 2008 12:36:24 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1910072/posts The Geopolitical Foundations of Blackwater By George Friedman For the past three weeks, Blackwater, a private security firm under contract to the U.S. State Department, has been under intense scrutiny over its operations in Iraq. The Blackwater controversy has highlighted the use of civilians for what appears to be combat or near-combat missions in Iraq. Moreover, it has raised two important questions: Who controls these private forces and to whom are they accountable? The issue is neither unique to Blackwater nor to matters of combat. There have long been questions about the role of Halliburton and its former subsidiary,... Email from Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1910072/posts#comment Fri, 12 Oct 2007 02:14:30 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1884520/posts All U.S. presidents eventually become lame ducks, though the lameness of any particular duck depends on the amount of power he has left to wield. It not only is an issue of the president's popularity, but also of the opposition's unity and clarity. In the international context, the power of a lame duck president depends on the options he has militarily. Foreign powers do not mess with American presidents, no matter how lame one might be, as long as the president retains military options. The core of the American presidency is in its role as commander in chief. With all... Stratfor Premium http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1884520/posts#comment Tue, 21 Aug 2007 23:21:59 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1872487/posts Domestic politics in most countries normally are of little interest geopolitically. On the whole this is true of the United States as well. Most political debates are more operatic than meaningful, most political actors are interchangeable and the distinctions between candidates rarely make a difference. The policies they advocate are so transformed by Congress and the Supreme Court -- the checks and balances the Founding Fathers liked so much, coupled with federalism -- that the president rarely decides anything. snip Therefore, we need to begin handicapping the presidency as we did in 2004, looking for patterns. In other words, policy... Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1872487/posts#comment Fri, 27 Jul 2007 15:28:26 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1865685/posts The Estonian government announced July 12 that it will challenge the European Commission over the 2008-2013 carbon dioxide quotas that the organization established for the Baltic states. The European Union's target is to cut carbon emissions by 20 percent by 2020 across the union in conjunction with the international Kyoto agreement's target of decreasing emissions from 1990 levels by 8 percent by 2012. The carbon emissions cap is also meant to push the European Union toward more environmentally friendly energy sources and decrease its energy dependence on Russia. However, several European countries believe the carbon caps will increase their dependence... stratfor.com http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1865685/posts#comment Fri, 13 Jul 2007 23:53:20 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1862786/posts After days of avoiding an all-out assault on the mosque/madrassa complex, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf reportedly has issued orders to storm the Pakistani capital of Islamabad's Red Mosque. The government also has claimed that Islamist militants holed up in the mosque include both wanted hard-core Pakistani jihadists as well as foreign fighters -- mostly Arabs -- affiliated with al Qaeda. The six-day security operation to dislodge Islamist militants from the Red Mosque thus appears to have entered a decisive stage. STRATFOR http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1862786/posts#comment Mon, 9 Jul 2007 01:38:11 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1858914/posts Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush will meet July 1-2 at the Bush family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine. The two will have several meaty items on their plate, including the planned U.S. missile defense shield in Central Europe and Russia's threat to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. The main dish, however, will be Kosovo -- again. This issue has been on the table since 1999, when the United States and its NATO allies, angered over Serbian behavior in Kosovo, ignored Russian objections and waged a 60-day air war against Yugoslavia. The... Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1858914/posts#comment Sat, 30 Jun 2007 20:24:19 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1670002/posts The ground war has begun. Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations. Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure... Stratfor intelligence http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1670002/posts#comment Fri, 21 Jul 2006 18:05:26 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1665285/posts Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder Israel lives with three realities: geographic, demographic and cultural. Geographically, it is at a permanent disadvantage, lacking strategic depth. It does enjoy the advantage of interior lines -- the ability to move forces rapidly from one front to another. Demographically, it is on the whole outnumbered, although it can achieve local superiority in numbers by choosing the time and place of war. Its greatest advantage is cultural. It has a far greater mastery of the technology and culture of war than its neighbors. Two of the realities cannot be changed. Nothing can be done about geography... email http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1665285/posts#comment Thu, 13 Jul 2006 23:05:51 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1656813/posts Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking ...on June 27, mentioned the need to start negotiations for replacing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1), set to expire in 2009. ... Russia feels that it would benefit from the mutual inspections which START-1 requires -- a reversal from Moscow's previous position. Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles are coming to the end of their shelf-lives, and the new SS-27 model is not yet online. The access to U.S. weapons and surveillance programs that comes with the inspections would benefit Russia's already robust research and development, as well as provide verification of the United States' capabilities.... Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1656813/posts#comment Wed, 28 Jun 2006 01:14:35 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1652785/posts As the tension mounts over a possible North Korean ballistic missile test, the United States leaked indications Tuesday that it has activated its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed a report printed in the Washington Times that the United States has switched the system from testing status to operational status. Realistically, the BMD system becoming "operational" is less likely than an actual North Korean missile launch -- but like the North Korean launch preparations, perception is more important than reality. The BMD system consists of an integrated series of early warning and... STRATFOR http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1652785/posts#comment Wed, 21 Jun 2006 01:29:23 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1649972/posts Iraq: Next Moves for the Shia By George Friedman In "Break Point," a piece we published about three weeks ago, we made the argument that the war in Iraq had reached the critical point. A basic political deal had been made between the three major groups in Iraq -- the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds -- and that the Sunnis at that point either would begin to contain the insurgency, or the situation could not be contained. As we put it then, "First, in response to the deal that has been made, can the Sunni political leadership move decisively to end... Stratfor (via email) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1649972/posts#comment Thu, 15 Jun 2006 17:27:30 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1596429/posts The Presidency: Deepening Questions By George Friedman Readers know that we have been tracking one issue almost above all others since last fall: the strength of the Bush presidency. The question that emerged following Hurricane Katrina was whether the administration would become a classic failed presidency or whether, having flirted with disaster, it would recover. Last week, the first indicator (apart from routine approval polls) came in: Congress, in essence, blocked a deal that would have put a state-run company from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in charge of several U.S. ports. STRATFOR http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1596429/posts#comment Wed, 15 Mar 2006 01:25:16 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1583177/posts The subscription site, STRATFOR or Strategic Forecasting, Inc. - issues almost daily a TERRORISM INTELLIGENCE REPORT with a self described "track record on accurate, insightful global intelligence and analysis earning itself a reputation as the world’s most respected private intelligence company". Strafor's Fred Burton updates the ongoing cartoon controversy (02.21.2006)as follows : "Fatwas and Rewards: An Inflection Point in the Cartoon Controversy" (I have highlighted key points received today via e-mail). "Two minor Shariah courts in India's Uttar Pradesh state have issued fatwas calling for the death of a Danish cartoonist who drew caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed. The fatwas,... http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1583177/posts#comment Wed, 22 Feb 2006 03:29:44 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1571501/posts [...] Second, this time the entire process -- production, delivery, editing and airing -- was carried out in the short span of 10 days. The tape obviously was made sometime after Jan. 19 -- when U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney reacted to the offer of truce from Osama bin Laden by saying the United States does not negotiate with terrorists -- because al-Zawahiri mentions both in his remarks. It would appear, then, that al Qaeda not only has improved its ability to produce videos, but also is cutting down on the time it takes to get a tape to Al... Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1571501/posts#comment Sat, 4 Feb 2006 03:50:03 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1556108/posts Source: Stratfor.com Dissecting the 'Chinese Miracle' By Peter Zeihan The "Chinese miracle" has been a leading economic story for several years now. The headlines are familiar: "China's GDP Growth Fastest in Asia." "China Overtakes United Kingdom as Fourth-Largest Economy." "China Becomes World's Second-Largest Energy Consumer." "China Revises GDP Growth Rates Upward -- Again." Everywhere, one can find news articles about China, rising like a phoenix from the economic debris of its Maoist system to change and challenge the world in every way imaginable. But just like the phoenix, the idea of an inevitable Chinese juggernaut is a myth. Moreover, Western... Stratfor.com http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1556108/posts#comment Wed, 11 Jan 2006 17:54:14 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1354245/posts Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States. Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world. The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities." According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States will continue... Stratfor http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1354245/posts#comment Wed, 2 Mar 2005 16:10:11 GMT http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1342987/posts (CNSNews.com) - Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States. Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world. The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities." According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States... CNS News http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1342987/posts#comment Mon, 14 Feb 2005 18:09:36 GMT