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Keyword: swingstates

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  • Clinton's Weakness in Important States

    06/23/2015 4:13:31 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 8 replies ^ | June 23, 2015 | Michael Barone
    Hillary Clinton has relaunched her campaign on Roosevelt Island with a 4,687-word speech. But it's not clear whether she and her husband, Bill Clinton, can win four presidential elections as Franklin D. Roosevelt did. Negative news for Clinton's prospects comes in the latest Quinnipiac polls in the key mega-states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In each of them, she leads or ties Republican opponents, though in many cases not by statistically significant margins. But she also is running under 50 percent of the vote in every pairing, averaging 47 percent against six different Republicans in Florida, 44 percent against seven...
  • Michigan's Drop in Unemployment is Historic

    06/17/2015 11:11:26 AM PDT · by MichCapCon · 16 replies
    Michigan Capitol Confidential ^ | 6/15/2015 | Tom Gantert
    In a recent editorial, the Detroit Free Press’ Stephen Henderson criticizes policymaking that was supposed to spur job creation, saying that instead “the unemployment has creeped down at alarmingly slow rates.” ForTheRecord says: The drop in the state's unemployment rate from 14.9 percent in June 2009 to 5.4 percent in April 2015 has been among the quickest and steepest drops in Michigan going back to 1976, which is the farthest back comparable monthly data is available. In October 1982, the state's unemployment rate was 16.5 percent. It took the state until December 1988 to get unemployment down to 6.9 percent,...
  • Poll: Rand Paul pulls ahead of Clinton

    04/09/2015 1:06:53 PM PDT · by Citizen Zed · 18 replies
    The Sun Herald ^ | 4-9-2015 | MARISSA HORN, McClatchy Washington Bureau
    <p>WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton is now behind or tied with most major Republican hopefuls in three critical swing states, according to a Quinnipiac University poll out Thursday.</p> <p>Her closest competitor in the poll – Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky – had an edge over Clinton in both Colorado and Iowa.</p>
  • Democrats ought to be terrified about losing these 3 critical swing-states in 2016

    01/16/2015 7:13:24 AM PST · by Din Maker · 53 replies
    The Week ^ | January 16, 2015 | David Marks
    President Obama's muscular victories in 2008 and 2012 inflated Democratic egos, giving the party visions of a never-ending string of victories in nationwide presidential races. Just a few years later, such over-confident prognosticating seems extremely ill-advised. The 2014 midterm elections were a disaster for the president's party. Republicans picked up nine Senate seats, claiming a majority for the first time in eight years. And House Republicans bolstered their ranks to the party's highest levels since Herbert Hoover was president. Even worse for Democrats: The apparent loosening of their near-lock on the Electoral College, which actually determines who gets to the...
  • Working-class whites lose voting dominance in Ohio

    07/22/2014 11:08:14 PM PDT · by entropy12 · 14 replies
    Yahoo News ^ | July 22, 2014 | AP
    Working-class whites are no longer a majority of Ohio's eligible voters, a historic shift in a key Midwestern swing state that has political parties pledging more outreach to a broader coalition of demographic groups.
  • The Suburbs Are the New Swing States

    12/02/2013 10:53:20 AM PST · by neverdem · 16 replies
    The Atlantic ^ | NOV 29, 2013 | RICHARD FLORIDA
    American politics turn on a now familiar set of categories: red states vs. blue states, rich states vs. poor states, Frostbelt vs. Sunbelt. But these generalizations mask deeper, less visible fissures in our political geography. We have written a great deal about the role of density in metropolitan voting patterns, highlighting the remarkably consistent and robust political red-to-blue tipping point that occurs when a metro reaches a density of roughly 800 residents per square mile. I took a deeper look at our emerging political geography in a recent feature for Politico magazine, where I argued that the suburbs have become...
  • Colorado: Model for the Rest of the Nation?: From Swing State to Solidly Blue

    09/05/2013 6:35:59 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 27 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 09/05/2013 | Derrick Wilburn
    At this very moment here in my home state of Colorado we are in the throes of a bitterly fought recall election campaign against two of our elected state representatives, senators John Morse (D-Colorado Springs) and Angela Giron (D-Pueblo). Those who have sought the state's constitutional remedy for out-of-touch and/or control legislators cite as their motivation these two senators' votes in the 2013 legislative session. The people spearheading the surprisingly bipartisan recall effort claim these senators stopped paying attention to the people they represent and voted in spite of rather than in accordance with the will of their constituents. At...
  • Poll worker gets 5-year sentence for voter fraud

    07/17/2013 10:52:15 AM PDT · by Deadeye Division · 37 replies ^ | Jul 17, 2013
    Judge says woman violated position of trust CINCINNATI —A Hamilton County poll worker who was found to have voted repeatedly for family members will go to prison. Melowese Richardson was sentenced to five years in prison for voting fraud on Wednesday. She worked as a poll worker for 14 years. Richardson said she voted for her sister several times. Her sister has been in a coma since 2003, Richardson said. Judge Robert Ruehlman said Richardson violated a position of trust and is a criminal, noting she is supposed to be a guardian of free elections. Ruehlman told Richardson that President...

    11/19/2012 7:42:07 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 83 replies
    Breitbart ^ | 11/18/2012 | MICHAEL PATRICK LEAHY
    On November 6, 2012, 3.2 million fewer Americans voted for Mitt Romney than President Obama. 61.8 million Americans voted for Obama, while only 58.6 million voted for Romney. Despite losing the popular vote 51% to 48%--not a landslide for Obama by any means, but on the other hand not the “neck and neck” outcome many predicted--Mitt Romney would be President today if he had secured 333,908 more votes in four key swing states. The final electoral college count gave President Obama a wide 332 to 206 margin over Romney. 270 electoral college votes are needed to win the Presidency. Romney...

    11/05/2012 4:22:49 PM PST · by Weedle · 1 replies
    You Tube ^ | 11-05-2012 | John T. Douglas
    Closing arguments in the 2012 Presidential election.
  • Democratic/Media Axis again FURIOUS with Cuban-American Voters!

    11/03/2012 6:24:31 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 12 replies ^ | November 2, 2012 | Humberto Fontova
    As we go to press polls show America’s largest swing state in a dead head between Romney and Obama. Florida has 29 electoral votes and the third largest “Hispanic” population in America. Normally this means a cakewalk for any Democrat. But whoops! Turns out that about a third of these Florida Hispanics (Cuban-Americans) are actually so—as in Americans whose ancestors hail almost exclusively from Europe’s Iberian Peninsula known as Hispania by the Romans. So as a broken clock is right twice a day, the term “Hispanic” as used by the mainstream media can actually be correct about 1/1000 of...
  • "The Hope & The Change" Watch FREE on Hulu (SHARE THIS LINK!!!)

    11/02/2012 10:42:48 PM PDT · by Do Not Make Fun Of His Ears · 13 replies
    Hulu ^ | 11/2/12 | Citizens United
    PLEASE SHARE THIS LINK Facebook, Twiiter, email, especially in swing states...share it everywhere!!!
  • Over 300 Electoral College Votes to Romney

    11/02/2012 3:27:27 AM PDT · by Texas Critic · 23 replies
    11/2/2012 | David T.
    The 2012 election will usher in a new administration, and they will win in a landslide. While even dyed-in-the-wool Obama supporters are willing to admit that Romney will likely win 50% of the popular vote, they are just as quick to point to the 2000 election and the President’s current lead in the Electoral College. While this loyalty is commendable, the cognitive dissidence it requires is shameful. Romney will win this election in a landslide in both popular vote and Electoral College vote; with at least 54% of the popular vote and over 300 votes in the Electoral College. The...
  • Swing State Early Voting Tally (What can we glean so far from early voting in key swing states?)

    10/31/2012 7:08:54 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 18 replies
    National Journal ^ | 10/31/2012 | Cory Bennett
    What can we glean from the early voting to this point in key swing states? Unfortunately for prognosticators, not much. Still, looking at voting trends thus far in several swing states and comparing those numbers with the 2008 early-voting numbers offers a glimpse into which way this year's voters lean. And while states don't report early-vote tallies for President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, many states do make voters register for a party when voting. Registration information is a useful indication of the which way the early electorate is voting.Below, "Total Votes Cast" represents the number of early...
  • WOW!! Just watched Citizens United/Bannon's 30-minute Infomercial - Devastating!!!

    10/28/2012 9:27:09 AM PDT · by time4good · 14 replies
    WHDT ^ | 10-28-2012 | Citizens United/Steven Bannon
    WOW! I was flipping through channels on my TV tuner on my computer to find Gingrich slice Cutter (no pun) and saw the Independents ad I've seen several times over the past month. Well, this thing kept going after 2 minutes and I realized this was the 30-minute ad that was going to run. This was GREAT!! The demographics were GREAT! All former Zero-voters, mostly women, 2 blacks, 2 latinos, older women, a poney-tail dude - even a regular white guy like me! The main points they kept making, in down to earth real life ways: He promised change, but...
  • Broadening the battlefield: Romney to WI as Obama desperately tries to cling to 2008 turf

    10/23/2012 1:39:55 PM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 17 replies
    Daily Mail ^ | October 23, 2012 | Toby Harnden In Boca Raton, Florida
    # Republican campaign sees chance to capitalise on President's struggles # Set to launch new push in states where Obama had double-digit victory # Election likely to come down to Florida, Virginia and above all Ohio Mitt Romney is to travel to Wisconsin, a state Barack Obama won in a 14-point blowout four years ago, as the Republican candidate's surging campaign seeks to expand the 'chessboard' into previously safe Democratic territory. At the same time, the Romney campaign has bought television advertising in the Boston market, which reaches screens in New Hampshire, a state Obama won by almost 10 points...
  • Unemployment falls in battleground states ahead of election

    10/19/2012 9:04:21 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 21 replies
    The Hill ^ | 10/19/2012 | Bernie Becker
    Several swing states saw their unemployment rate drop in September, the Labor Department reported Friday in the final state-by-state breakdown before the election. Ohio and Florida — two of the most contested battlegrounds in the race for the White House — were among the states to see employment gains. The new data comes just weeks after the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate had unexpectedly fallen to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest level of President Obama’s term. The economy added a total of 114,000 jobs last month. In all, seven states being contested by Obama and GOP nominee...
  • Oh my: Gallup shows Romney leading by five — in swing states

    10/15/2012 2:52:26 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 47 replies
    Hotair ^ | 10/15/2012 | AllahPundit
    Like Chuck Todd said this morning, "Structural shift."A safe prediction for tomorrow night: You're going to hear a lot about the "47 percent" and a lot lot lot about the "war on women." As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men..."In every poll, we've seen a major...
  • Swing state polls echo national trend: Mitt Romney on the rise

    10/11/2012 12:26:17 PM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 15 replies
    Christian Science Monitor ^ | October 11, 2012 | Linda Feldmann
    Washington - A slew of battleground-state polls out Thursday shows a presidential race that has tightened in several key states, echoing national polls that show a bounce for Republican Mitt Romney after his strong debate performance Oct. 3.......All of these states went for Obama four years ago,and if Romney is to unseat the incumbent, he has to win most of them. So, he still has his work cut out for him. The debate Thursday night between Romney’s running mate,Rep. Paul Ryan(R) of Wisconsin, and Vice President Joe Biden is a critical step along the way. Typically,vice presidential debates don’t matter,...
  • More Republicans than Democrats Requesting Absentee Ballots in Four Swing States

    10/09/2012 12:23:24 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 18 replies
    National Review ^ | 10/09/2012 | Katrina Trinko
    From a memo by RNC political director Rick Wiley: In at least four key swing states in 2008, Obama won handily among early voters, allowing him to win those state without winning the actual Election Day vote. He will not have the same early vote lead this year because our Absentee Balloting operation is producing promising results. In Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada Republicans have requested more absentee ballots than Democrats. While we run programs in every battleground state, not all states track ballots by voter identification, so we can only measure our progress in certain ones.As of...
  • Romney Surging in PA (O 47 R 45)

    10/08/2012 3:51:52 PM PDT · by NoobRep · 30 replies
    American Spectator ^ | 10/8/12 | American Spectator
    Just in. The Susquehanna Poll (from the Susquehanna Polling and Research folks ) have just released their post-debate poll of Pennsylvania. Bottom line: Romney is suddenly surging, with Obama leading by a mere two points -- which is to say a "virtual dead heat." Concludes the poll: There is (my emphasis) "clear evidence the debates have helped solidify the Keystone State as a tossup election in November and one well within Romney's reach."
  • How BO Helped Save the American Economy (e-mail)

    10/08/2012 10:25:57 AM PDT · by Vigilanteman · 11 replies
    Organizing for America (e-mail) ^ | 8 October 2012 | Thomas Whitaker
    Hi, I'm Thomas Whitaker, the field organizer for President Obama's grassroots organization in the area. I wanted to thank you personally for taking the time to talk recently with one of our organizers about the issues that matter to you and your friends and family. I also wanted to give you some more information on what the President and other Democrats have done to help create jobs. Click here to get a good breakdown on how we're making progress creating jobs for Pennsylvanians. Here are some of the highlights for our state and the nation, too: When the President took...
  • Polls show Romney making headway in swing states

    10/05/2012 2:21:57 PM PDT · by markomalley · 14 replies
    The Hill ^ | 10/5/2012 | Justin Sink and Jonathan Easley
    A set of new swing-state polls show Mitt Romney making big gains in three critical battleground states just two days after the Republican nominee's widely-heralded debate performance. The polls — from conservative-leaning Rasmussen and We Ask America — showed Romney closing the gap or leading in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, three states the GOP candidate would likely need to capture to win the White House. And they represent a dramatic reversal from last week, where polls showed President Obama with a commanding lead. In Ohio, the We Ask America poll gave Romney a 47-46 percent edge over the president, while...
  • Boing! (3 Swing State Polls: Romney up in Ohio, VA and FL)

    10/05/2012 8:08:07 AM PDT · by nhwingut · 23 replies
    We Ask America ^ | 10/05/2012 | Staff
    Few disagree that Mitt Romney won Wednesday night’s presidential debate. Even fewer would argue against the notion that Romney sorely needed that performance to put his campaign back on track. With the national polling averages hovering around three percent in Barack Obama’s favor, Romney’s inability to gain traction was resulting in a pundit-driven drum beat of inevitability. Not so fast there, muchachos. Polling in key states has shown a widening gap, but in many states, the spreading numbers have been more meandering that directional. True, if it had continued that way the election could have gently slid into the point...
  • Rebuild America – Defeat Obama Tour Comes To Traverse City, MI.

    10/04/2012 12:49:13 PM PDT · by Lloyd Marcus ^ | 10/04/120 | Lloyd Marcus
    Traverse City, MI will always hold a special place in my heart. Upon leaving the stage after performing at a tea party rally, a white woman in a wheelchair saw me approaching. She yelled, “Oh my gosh, it's Lloyd Marcus! May I have a picture with you?” I leaned over, gave the woman a hug and her daughter snapped a picture. Donald, our product manager said the woman's daughter told him that her mother is terminally ill. Her mom said all she wanted to do was meet Lloyd Marcus before she died. Folks, I can not begin to tell you...
  • Polls: Obama Maintains Small National Lead

    10/01/2012 5:20:07 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 16 replies ^ | October 1, 2012 | Guy Benson
    As the presidential debates are set to kick off this week, Barack Obama continues to hold a modest national lead over Mitt Romney.  Here are the top-line numbers among likely voters in three new polls:   Washington Post/ABC News - Obama 49, Romney 47Politico/GWU - Obama 49, Romney 47Rasmussen - Obama 50, Romney 47 (includes leaners) Digging a little deeper, the WaPo/ABC News poll shows a virtually-tied national race, but has Obama up by eleven in the swing states.  This makes little sense.  Obama is expected to clean up in non-swing states with the largest populations: California, New York and...
  • Get Word Out! Rebuild America-Defeat Obama Rally in Houghton MI

    10/01/2012 8:56:35 AM PDT · by Lloyd Marcus · 2 replies
    Campaign to Defeat Obama - Rebuild America Tour ^ | 10/01/2012 | Mary Parker Marcus
    Hi All.... Mary here. Lloyd's wife. Would you all help get word out of the Rebuild America-Stop Obama Tour's Rally Weds Oct 3rd 1:30PM in Veterans Memorial Park, Houghton MI 49931 For those attending - Two important things to bring: 1) A picture no larger than 3.5" x 5" of something you built; we'll collect these photos along the tour then construct them in to a giant sign at the end of the tour that we will post across from Obama's campaign headquarters that says, "Yes we DID build it!" (And we'll make sure all the media is there when...
  • Intense campaigning in Western states

    09/30/2012 9:09:32 AM PDT · by thecodont · 1 replies
    San Francisco Chronicle / ^ | Updated 11:07 p.m., Saturday, September 29, 2012 | Carla Marinucci and Joe Garofoli
    Highlands Ranch, Colo. -- From the glittering lights of Nevada casinos to the magnificent vistas and booming tech corridor of Colorado, the wide open spaces, big skies, and big aspirations of Western voters on both sides of the aisle have taken center stage in the 2012 presidential election. As President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney prepare to meet Wednesday in their first face-to-face debate at the University of Denver, the candidates have lavished attention and resources on the two Western swing states that could shape the outcome of the race. With 38 days left until the election, the economy and...
  • Mitt Romney's ‘secret:’ Pennsylvania is competitive

    09/28/2012 10:42:31 AM PDT · by kingattax · 50 replies
    Politico ^ | 9/28/12 | DARREN SAMUELSOHN
    WAYNE, Pa. — Mitt Romney declared Pennsylvania a battleground during a mid-morning rally here Friday, despite public polls showing him well behind in the race for the state’s prized 20 electoral votes. “I’ve got a little secret here and that is that the Obama campaign thinks that Pennsylvania is in their pocket. They don’t need to worry about it,” Romney said during a visit to a military academy in the Philadelphia suburbs. “And you’re right and they’re wrong. We’re going to win Pennsylvania and we’re going to take the White House.”
  • Skewed polls indicate Obama's in trouble - not Romney

    09/27/2012 4:59:54 AM PDT · by Evil Slayer · 70 replies
    American Thinker ^ | September 27, 2012 | Keith Edwards
    Certain media polls indicating Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney by as much as 10 to 12 points in swing states seem to spell disaster for Romney, but what they really say about the Obama campaign may just surprise you? The absurdity of the skewed sample models in those polls is one thing, but what conservatives need to understand is that polls skewed to heavily favor Democrats logically point to one very important fact - Obama is in big trouble. For one thing, Democrats and the liberal media are taking a huge chance by touting polls showing Obama up by...
  • Unemployment rates rise in half of US states

    09/21/2012 8:48:43 AM PDT · by kingattax · 26 replies
    Yahoo News/AP ^ | 9-21-12 | CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
    Unemployment rates rose in more than half of U.S. states last month, the latest evidence that hiring remains tepid across the country. The Labor Department says rates increased in 26 states. They fell in 12 states and were unchanged in the other 12. Unemployment also rose in seven of the 11 key swing states in this year's presidential election. Nationwide, hiring employers added only 96,000 jobs in August, below July's gain of 141,000 and the average of 226,000 jobs a month added in January-March quarter. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent in July. But that...
  • Romney campaign to 'carpet bomb' airwaves after Obama nomination speech

    09/06/2012 4:34:01 PM PDT · by Perdogg · 157 replies
    News the campaign will launch an enormous media offensive on Friday, the day after President Obama accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for a second term. The push will include ad buys in several states that will cost tens of millions of dollars.
  • Romney, GOP Groups Pull Ads From Michigan and Pennsylvania

    09/06/2012 4:24:23 PM PDT · by taildragger · 120 replies
    Talking Points Memo ^ | 9/6/2012 | Eric Kleefeld
    Republicans signaled this week that they might have given up hope in two important swing states. TPM Slideshow: Romney Takes The Stage At The RNC The Romney campaign and conservative groups like Crossroads GPS have pulled TV ads in Michigan, Romney’s home state, according to the Detroit News. Nor are the campaign and super PACs running advertising in Pennsylvania, after unleashing a barrage there over the past five months. It is still possible for groups to purchase TV advertising in either state at a later date. The PollTracker Averages show President Obama ahead 48.9 percent to 45.4 percent in Michigan,...
  • Romney cedes Ohio TV airwaves to Obama (at least for now)

    09/06/2012 12:24:41 PM PDT · by HenryArmitage · 67 replies
    LA Times ^ | September 6, 2012 | Michael Finnegan
    CLEVELAND — If you switched on a television in northern Ohio this week, chances are you saw an ad for President Obama’s reelection campaign. Or two. Or three. Over and over again. Mitt Romney? Nothing. Obama’s Republican challenger has spent much of the summer racing around the country gathering campaign donations to pay for advertising. And the legal restraints that kept him from spending money raised for the general election were lifted a week ago, when the party officially nominated him for president. Yet for reasons that his advisors declined to discuss, Romney has ceded the advertising airwaves to Obama...
  • Poll: Romney up 3 in Ohio, best showing since June

    09/06/2012 1:32:44 PM PDT · by Arthurio · 86 replies
    Poll: Romney up 3 in Ohio, best showing since June By Justin Sink - 09/05/12 08:25 PM ET Mitt Romney has opened a 3-point lead in the pivotal swing state of Ohio, according to a new poll released Wednesday — the Republican nominee's best showing since June. The Republican ticket garnered support of 47 percent of those surveyed, versus 43 percent for Democrats, according to a poll released by Gravis Marketing. President Obama has led consistently in the polls since June, although that lead has been usually within the margin of error. Meanwhile, 10 percent of voters remain unsure in...
  • Swinging the Swing States (Large crowds are fantastic but don't necessarily win elections)

    09/03/2012 1:45:18 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 9 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 09/03/2012 | Carol Brown
    Romney and Ryan are attracting large crowds. So did Sarah Palin. Large crowds are fantastic, but do not an election win. Conservative rags are full of hype in their favor. Liberal rags are full of hype in their favor. Hype does not an election win. There's much bravado in the air on many conservative sites. Much talk of how this is a done deal. How we will win in a landslide. All of this flies in the face of numerous polls and demographic analyses. And while they may be wrong, they may also be right. Either way, we cannot afford...
  • Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls

    08/22/2012 10:19:57 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 8 replies
    New York Times ^ | 08/21/2012 | Nate Silver
    We can get pretty detail-oriented in our analysis of the polls here at FiveThirtyEight. But sometimes there is also value in applying a simpler approach. One simple thing I've noticed is this: Mitt Romney has held the lead recently in quite a few swing state polls. That wasn't the case in June or July, when Barack Obama held leads in those polls far more often than Mr. Romney did.Right now, our forecast model classifies the 10 most important states in the Electoral College as follows, and in the following order: Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire...
  • Voters Want a Champion

    08/19/2012 4:25:06 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 20 replies ^ | August 19, 2012 | Salena Zito
    BEALLSVILLE, Ohio – Seventy-plus men walked out of the ground, overalls and hardhats covered in coal dust, and onto the risers of a stage built for a Mitt Romney speech. To onlookers, mostly press and staffers, the image was stunning. To the 2,600 family members gathered in the gravel parking lot or under tents, eating hotdogs and drinking pop, it was a moment of immense pride. This is what we do, said Tim Wiles: “We make things. We provide energy for the state, food for our families, and businesses are sustained around the county because they make money from...
  • CBS/NYT poll shows swing states in play for Romney

    08/08/2012 7:19:48 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 13 replies
    Hotair ^ | 08/08/2012 | Ed Morrissey
    We've already taken a look at one of our "favorite" polls to analyze. How about another series infamous for sampling issues? The latest survey from CBS and the New York Times covers three swing states won by Barack Obama in 2008, and where Mitt Romney hopes to compete. The polling performed by Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT shows Romney leading in Colorado, within the margin of error in Virginia, and almost so in Wisconsin: Romney is ahead of the president in the swing state of Colorado, 50 percent to 45 percent. The poll shows a key part of Mr. Obama's Colorado coalition...
  • Gallup reveals Obama in deep trouble with polling numbers in important swing states

    08/02/2012 1:58:04 PM PDT · by Signalman · 12 replies ^ | 8/1/2012 | unk.
    All these oversampled Democrat polls trying to fool people into believing Obama is doing great in swing states is nothing more than a load of crap. One great example is Ohio, where recently skewed polls have shown Obama with sizable leads over Mitt Romney with an average of 8-11% more Democrats polled than Republicans. Obama’s approval rating in Ohio on Gallup over the first half of 2012 is just 44%. You don’t win states with 44% approval ratings. In other states like Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Obama is only at 46% approval. In Nevada, New Mexico Obama’s approval is only...
  • CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50% … (Massive oversampling of Democrats)

    08/01/2012 7:06:55 AM PDT · by Qbert · 34 replies
    Hot Air ^ | AUGUST 1, 2012 | ED MORRISSEY
    I’ve got good news and bad news for Hot Air readers today. First, the good news: After a few years of embarrassing sample skew problems in the CBS/NYT polls, the two media outlets have partnered with Quinnipiac, at least for this week’s look at three swing states — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  The bad news?  I’m not sure the new partnership improved things. First, let’s look at CBS’ lead on the new poll numbers, which they tout as good news for Barack Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney: President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and...
  • GOP Edge in Swing States

    07/31/2012 6:58:54 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 20 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 07/31/2012 | Bruce Walker
    The world of political punditry seems convinced that the 2012 presidential election will be won in ten swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Two other states, Indiana (lean Republican) and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (lean Democrat) could probably go either way in a close election. If the election is a landslide, as many conservatives, including me, believe, then these thirteen swing states will not matter. Obama will likely get stuck with a group of northeastern states and a smattering of others. If the election is close, however, those dozen states will likely...
  • Swing states give Obama the edge

    07/30/2012 2:41:30 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 73 replies
    The Hill ^ | 07/30/2012 | Niall Stanage
    President Obama has an overall edge in the 12 decisive battleground states that is measurably greater than his advantage in national polling. The dynamic, which may reflect a combination of lower swing-state unemployment rates and demographic advantages for the president, is causing stirrings of unease among Republicans, even as they emphasize that it is important not to read too much into the state of the race right now. “Obama is concentrating his considerable early resources and messaging in the swing states, and it’s had an impact,” said Mark McKinnon, who served as a media adviser for President George W. Bush’s...
  • Unemployment up in 6 of 10 swing states

    07/21/2012 12:12:40 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 3 replies
    Hotair ^ | 07/21/2012 | Jazz Shaw
    We all know what’s truly important in this election in the minds of America's frequently fickle voters, right?"Horse Dressage!!!"Errr... no."Mitt Romney's Overdue Library Books!!!!"Well... certainly something to consider, but not really what I was thinking."Err... jobs?"Bingo. And thank you. So, how are this administration's policies working out thus far, particularly in those crucial swing states? Unemployment rose in June in six of 10 battleground states that could play a pivotal role in the presidential election, reflecting job cuts in some cases and weak payroll growth in others.The jobless rate climbed a 10th of a percentage point last month in Michigan,...
  • Independent Voter Surge Cuts Democrats’ Swing State Edge

    07/10/2012 10:15:28 PM PDT · by neverdem · 17 replies
    Bloomberg | Jul 9, 2012 | John McCormick
    Here's the link.
  • Poll: Romney Claims Slight Edge in 15 'Battleground' States

    07/04/2012 6:45:33 AM PDT · by WashingtonSource · 25 replies
    National Journal ^ | July 3, 2012 | Steven Shepard
    President Obama remains marginally ahead of Mitt Romney in a new national CNN/ORC International poll released on Monday, although Romney leads Obama in the 15 states identified by the network as battleground states. Obama leads Romney nationally, 49 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent of those surveyed saying they would vote for another candidate or neither candidate. That is inside the poll's margin of error, and it is identical to the 49 percent to 46 percent lead Obama had in the previous poll, conducted in late May. It is also similar to the latest Gallup tracking poll, which shows...
  • Hispanic Voters Less Plentiful in Swing States

    06/20/2012 2:33:19 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 6 replies
    New York Times ^ | 06/20/2012 | Nate Silver
    As I wrote on Tuesday morning, President Obama’s decision to suspend deportations of some young illegal immigrants should entail mostly upside for him from a political standpoint. Based on polls about his decision and the way that Republicans are reacting to it, the evidence that public opinion is on Mr. Obama’s side is reasonably clear. So I don’t agree with other analysts who have termed the decision risky or puzzling. Mr. Obama has learned this year that being the incumbent at a time when most voters think the country is on the wrong track is not necessarily an advantageous position....
  • Swing States, Battlegrounds and the 2012 Map

    06/19/2012 5:33:00 PM PDT · by randita · 15 replies
    Rothenberg Political Report ^ | 6/19/12 | Stuart Rothenberg
    Swing States, Battlegrounds and the 2012 Map Stuart Rothenberg June 19, 2012 · 3:37 PM EDT Everyone has an opinion about swing states. I figured it was time to explain how I see the presidential map. My approach isn’t based solely on statistics, though numbers matter a great deal. (I suppose this means that while I admire Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane’s approach to baseball, I also think that non-quantifiable considerations are part of the analytical mix.) When I use the term “swing states,” I am referring to those states that in a “neutral” landscape are likely to be...
  • The Media Doesn’t Understand Races in the States

    06/08/2012 12:59:14 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 3 replies
    Weekly Standard ^ | 06/08/2012 | Jay Cost
    This write-up from the Hill on a recent Pennsylvania poll is pretty similar to many others these days: President Obama is retaining his commanding lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, topping the Republican presidential nominee by 12 points in a poll released Wednesday by Franklin & Marshall College. Obama would win the favor of 48 percent of Keystone State voters, versus just 36 percent for Romney, according to the poll.  And polls like these are producing frames like these, from Charles Babington of the AP: …Republican presidential nominees have lost (Pennsylvania) five straight times despite substantial efforts. Some independent analysts say...
  • Swing State Polls Show Close Race

    05/31/2012 10:40:55 AM PDT · by bkepley · 25 replies
    NRO ^ | May 31, 2012 1:06 P.M | Katrina Trinko
    NBC reports: Today, we’re unveiling a new round of NBC-Marist surveys in three other battleground states — ones that aren’t polled as often — showing an even closer race. In Iowa, the two men are tied at 44% among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate; 10% are undecided. In Colorado, Obama gets support from 46% of registered voters, while Romney gets 45%. And in Nevada, the president is at 48% and Romney is at 46%. The margin of error in each of these three surveys is plus-minus 3%, so they are all statistical ties...