Free Republic

MARBLEHEAD, Mass. -- Call her Martha Chokely. It should have been the easiest election cakewalk in the free world. But things have gotten so bad here for state Attorney General Martha Coakley that the projected turnout models going into the election have been junked, as everything is flipped on its head. Just a week ago, conventional wisdom held that high voter turnout today would guarantee Coakley a smooth victory. But Republicans on the ground here believe now that her best hope may lie in a low turnout of just diehard Democrats. State Sen. Scott Brown's best hope, they argue, is...

  I'm passing these two observations from liberal Virginia bloggers on to readers, but they're so out of line with expectations, I have a hard time buying them.First, from Not Larry Sabato, about the Virginia delegate races: "SIX SEATS ARE GONE — ANOTHER NINE ARE IN PLAY FOR GOP PICKUP." Yesterday I predicted a GOP gain of six seats; I think most Virginia Republicans saw picking up 11 as their best-case scenario.Then, from Blue Virginia: I'm a bit skeptical of this, so take it with as big a grain of salt as you'd like, but it's from an excellent source....

Just returned from voting here in my little corner of bright-blue Northern Virginia. Went down to the local elementary school and the poll worker checked my ID. I assumed she was a racist trying that overburdensome disenfranchising trick on me. But alas, I was ready and whipped out my license. I asked about turnout and whether she could compare this year to 2005, the last time we had the post-presidential, off-year elections, and she said it was noticeably heavier. She said there had been a steady stream all day, which was apparently not the case four years ago.

In New Jersey, Turnout Higher In GOP and Swing Districts Than In Democrats I want to preface this by noting that all of this is based only on the early voting, and is based on about a half-dozen polling places in every county in New Jersey; some known as historically Republican districts, some known as historically swing districts, and some known as historically Democratic districts. A trusted source tells me that as of noon, total turnout in the GOP the swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts. The turnout ratio is not quite two to one,...

Tom Jensen, a spokesman for the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, has been among the most outspoken. He said the high number of Democrats with districts that are significantly black means such a turnout shift could be disastrous for Democrats. “If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House,” Jensen said.

Many psephologists — derived from the word for pebbles, which the ancient Greeks used as ballots — study who wins and loses elections. Lately I’ve been looking more closely at turnout. For we live, though most psephologists haven’t stopped to notice it lately, in a decade of vastly increased voter turnout... Going into the 2008 election, Barack Obama’s strategists recognized that their chances of winning hitherto dependably Republican states hinged on enlarging the electorate. They did that, brilliantly, in Indiana and Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada, and most spectacularly in North Carolina, where turnout rose 20 percent, more than in...

The race between Barack Obama and John McCain was supposed to be about winning the middle. Both candidates embraced the theme of moving from partisan gridlock to seeking bipartisan consensus. Obama's speeches evoked a country that was "not blue states and red states, but more United States." McCain focused on his record of working on both sides of Senate aisle. In contrast to the 2004 election, in which both parties sought to motivate their bases, this campaign was set on the battlefield of undecided voters. The election results, however, record the exact opposite happening. Most undecided voters swung to McCain,...

As usual, the media has missed the huge story of this election. Their story is that Obama registered huge masses of new supporters and got them to the polls. At first, that was what I thought, but that is not the key factor. I was expecting the highest percentage turnout in 100 years amounting to 130,000,000 voters, but instead as of 5:00 PM EDT, 121,146,964 people voted for Obama or McCain. In 2004, 121,069,054 people voted for Bush or Kerry. Hence in a hotly contested election in which a fortune was spent on the race, there was no big surge...

I agree with D.J. Drummond in his blog here : http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/ when he said : ----------------------------------------------------- Consider the next fact; turnout this year was down, not up. Down by more than five million votes from 2004. Somebody did not bother to vote this year. But who was it? Again looking at CNN, it turns out that participation by democrats was 7 points higher than republicans. There was a modest 3 percent increase nationally in democrat voter registration from 2004’s tallies, while republicans dropped turnout by at least 15 percent from 2004. So if you are one of those eight million...

History has shown that rain disproportionately depresses turnout among Democrats. Well, not only is it raining in Democrat-heavy Chesapeake, Virginia, which is in the Hampton Roads area, it seems that rainy voters are dripping on the ballots and causing problems.

Could God be pulling for McCain-Palin? Take a look at Accuweather right now! It is raining in...

Big voter turnout early this morning in West Michigan. Voters began lining up at 6:00am with long lines forming quickly. I drove by several voting precincts this morning and the parking lots are absolutely packed! West Michigan typically votes republican, but turnout will be a huge factor for Michigan--if only the unions did not reward their members with the day off to go and vote for the dem? Happy voting to everyone!

Do not believe the propaganda being spread by the media and pollsters that this election is over.  Conservative turnout will decide this election.  I firmly believe this country is still conservative but every vote we can get is needed this time.  I also believe this election is ours to lose, despite what the polls or the media say. I urge you to vote for McCain.  Make a plan to go.  Be determined to exercise your right although the weather may be bad, or you may have to stand in line for hours.  Take the day off if necessary – it...

Weather Forecasts for Key Cities ***************************** Ohio (20 electoral votes) 2004 vote: Bush-R (50.8 pct) 2,858,727; Kerry-D (48.7 pct) 2,739,952 Recent Polls: Obama 51 pct, McCain 47 pct - CNN/Time (thru Tuesday) Cincinnati weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 72 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph) Cleveland weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 66 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph) Columbus weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 71 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph) ***************************** Florida (27 electoral votes) 2004 vote: Bush-R (52.1 pct) 3,964,522; Kerry-D (47.1) 3,583,544 Recent Polls: Obama...

The author of the study, who writes a whole hell of a lot better than Michelle Obama (just don't want you to forget who our 1st Lady would be if Barry wins), seems to suggest a racist element among the increased white turnout. She also notes, in passing, that black candidates are among the most liberal in the country, which I think is largely the reason for the increased white turnout. More . . .

It's anecdotal, to be sure, but last time I checked, the Obama Brown Shirts haven't resorted to duck-taping Republican voters to their refrigerators . . . yet. From Jim Geraghty at The Campaign Spot. While Texas will go solidly McCain as it did for Bush, I thought this was interesting. I live in Lubbock, TX a city of about 200,000 that went about 75-25% for Bush in 2004. In 2004 about 58,500 early voted in the county (total county pop is somewhat higher than city's 200,000), this year early voting was about 69,500. That's almost a 19% increase, and you...

WASHINGTON – Voter turnout will be the highest in decades, dwarfing recent presidential elections, experts predict. The only question dividing experts is how huge will it be. Will it be the largest since 1968, largest since 1960 or even, as one expert predicts, the largest in a century? Soaring early voting levels hint at a big turnout, but that could just be the same voters casting ballots earlier instead of more voters hitting the polls. Weather should generally be favorable, according to forecasts. --snip-- Michael McDonald of George Mason University is so optimistic he's predicting the highest level in a...

Two weeks before Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is busily banking every early vote he can get in key states. Republican nominee John McCain is more selectively working to lock in the early votes of his most iffy supporters, figuring the rest will make it to the polls sooner or later. Voters in every state can now cast ballots through early voting or absentee voting programs. Results won't be released until Nov. 4, but a look at those who have voted shows the Democrats have been aggressive. In Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio, Democrats — or at...

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Sarah Palin stands at the center of a whirlwind of controversy at the Republican National Convention — but many GOP congressional candidates think the conservative Alaska governor can help motivate base voters crucial to down ballot campaigns. In interviews, Republican members and strategists agreed that, while questions about her qualifications to be vice president remain a potentially dangerous unknown for Palin in the presidential contest, she should be able to help turn out socially conservative voters in House races. Conservative faithful in many key districts have remained wary of John McCain’s commitment to their agenda —...

Democrats claim high voter turnout in their primaries is proof positive they'll win the White House in November. It is a familiar claim, made by one party or the other, that pops up every four years, but it contains not a morsel of truth. Many studies show no correlation between party primary participation and general election results. Nevertheless, in a memorandum to its supporters and the news media, the Democratic National Committee is crowing, "record turnout during the primaries has been transformational for the Democratic Party as record numbers of new voters are being registered." In this equation, new primary...