Posted on 05/09/2024 4:45:08 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
Oh no doubt they will try. I know the election is still 6 months away, and that’s a lifetime in politics, but if the momentum continues the way its been going pretty much all cycle, Its hard to see how Dems can fraud enough votes to win... no doubt they will try, but as much as the press is trying to sell this as a close election, it certainly does not look like its going to be that close in the end.
Yes, 6 months is a long time, momentum can switch and change, but Its highly doubtful that the economy is going to improve before election day, and its highly doubtful that Biden is suddenly going to find himself looking at approval ratings that are above the 30s before then.
Time will tell.
Michelle Obama will be drafted to run as the straw person for the 4th Obama Administration. Even with the fraud that will be committed, the dems cannot win without the black voting block. The dems’ problem is how and when to dump Joe. He’s going down hill quickly, and Kamala taking over is their worst nightmare.
I see the difficulty as how do the Dems announce that old slow joe is suddenly too sick to be on the ticket in November but just fine to remain in office every minute until then so Kamala cannot ascend to her rightful place, replacing him.
How do they steamroller over Kamala at that point and for the rest of the months up to the election after a Dem convention and Michelle Obama replacement? How can they make the case that Michelle is better qualified than the actual sitting VP?
When LBJ chose not to run in ‘68, was there immediate talk of replacing him at the head of the Fall ticket with his then VP, Hubert Humphrey? or were many names floated that would have bypassed Humphrey? I’m assuming the DNC has total power to pick and choose but they may face voter backlash if they choose too outrageously? Will they lose the African American bloc vote amount needed if they bypass Kamala with anyone who is not also at least partially black?
Its hard to see how Dems can fraud enough votes to win.
Nope Biden and party managed to get a bill or ruling passed that allow illegals to be counted in the electoral count it’s why they allowed so many illegals in.
Well, due to the general makeup of the electorate, it won’t be a Reagan 84 night, but IF, and if is always a big word, the momentum stays like it has been pretty much the entire cycle, then Democrats are going to be playing heavy defense in places that no one is even talking about today.
Short of something shifting, by fall it will be very evident that the “swing” states everyone is talking about today, will largely be out of reach for Biden.
Maybe 1 or 2 of the rust belts might still be “in play” but pretty much, the rest of the “swing state” map will be all but locked up for Trump.
I mean at this point the only other “swing” state that MIGHT still be in play would be, say AZ, if the whole abortion thing blows up... but since the 1800’s ban has now been rescinded, its hard to see how that’s going to be a tide turner even if there is some referendum on the ballot about abortion.. Other than that I really don’t see how anything else won’t be all but locked up by then.
I fully expect the battle to be taken to states no one is talking about.... Biden is just down everywhere, even in the deepest of blue states he’s polling down 10-15 points from his 2020 numbers...
People are still in denial that MN will be competitive, they seem stuck on a false narrative.
2024’s baseline should be 2016, not 2020, if for no other reason, than the 3rd parties are back on the ballot... In 2020 they largely were not.. .(and that’s not even considering RFK being probably the biggest 3rd party draw since Perot, that’s just 3rd partied in general). That one single data point alone should be enough that any analyst thinking 2020 is the baseline to work off of should immediately be fired.
We will see how this plays out, but its hard to see where the “gotcha” is going to shift things, At this point they have thrown everything and the kitchen sink at Trump for 8 or 9 years, and he’s standing tall... Biden on the other hand, bloom is far off that rose, but he too has been around forever so hard to see him suddenly changing stripes in any way that is going to drastically shift the election his way.
The only thing the left has, in any polling, that shows it could shift the race would be a conviction of Trump, on anything.... doesn’t matter if its legit, just a conviction on anything.... polling says some folks would be open to changing their support for Trump if he’s convicted... So, that’s why all this nonsense is happening. Now, with that actually come to pass, especially if any conviction is a laughable farce that will be overturned on appeal? We will see... My suspicion is it will backfire on them if they manage to get one, but that’s all they got, so that’s why they are all in on these stupid kangaroo trials.
At this point, if things continue the way they have been, Trump is likely to win not only the white house, but the popular vote as well, and if the latter of those 2 things happen its hard not to see Trump absolutely expanding the map well beyond the states the pundits are currently talking about as being in play. We shall see how it goes, 6 months is still along time, and anything can happen.
The next census isn’t until 2030.. so even if the illegals are counted toward electoral realignment it won’t happen until the 2032 election cycle.
My guess is that if there is a way for him to win and accept the nomination before naming Harris as the running mate, some medical emergency will happen and the DNC power brokers at the convention will name his replacement sans Harris.
I’m really hoping for an actual debate between Trump and Biden. They’ll be adjusting Biden’s cocktail meds mix so hard he’ll pop a blood vessel
Well they say they will have one, but I am sure if they do it will be incredibly time boxed... The stimulants and ergoloids can’t keep him going through campaign speeches any longer.. going to have to dose him like an elephant to get him through an hour or more.
Well that was my original theory, they will nominate Biden officially then he will “retire” or something allowing them to name a replacement nominee without a single vote cast.
Could still happen, but if they are going to try this they really need to start grooming and pushing the person they are planning to replace him with now... if they want any chance of it working... and so far, I haven’t really seen any indications they are grooming anyone for that role.
“Enthusiasm Gap is enormous, and very very real.”
I don’t disagree with what you noted regarding Biden’s vote total or about how Nimrod’s vote total is hardly alarming for Trump (despite the media’s wish that it was).
Still: Understand that Democrats in Indiana had NOTHING to vote for this week while Republicans had a supposedly hotly-contested gubernatorial primary and at least 4 (should have been 5) important contested U.S. House primaries in districts 3, 5, 6 & 8. So obviously Republican voters had far more reason to participate.
But as to this “enthusiasm gap” stuff.... oy.
Recall 2020 when we were told by self-important and supposedly authoritative data analysts (some of whom post here on FR) that Trump had — I kid you not — nearly a SEVENTY point so-called enthusiasm advantage!
It’s not hard to see why the naive and wishful thinkers would be fooled into thinking that such a gap existed — Biden can’t draw any crowds at all!!! Trump’s rallies are HUUUUUGE!!!
All irrelevant, as anecdotal BS usually is (e.g. yard signs, or “muh neighbor who voted Democrat last time....”, or “I talked to 3 guys at work, or....)
Pollsters presumably asked prospective Biden and Trump voters how excited or enthusiastic they were to vote for their chosen candidate.
Biden voters: little to no enthusiasm, obviously.
Trump voters: massive enthusiasm and therefore a massive (70 point!!!) difference between us and voters for Basement Biden.
Meaningless.
Because they asked the wrong question of the Biden voters.
Wrong question: “How enthusiastic are you to vote FOR Joe Biden (and other Democrats)?”
Right question: “How enthusiastic are you to vote AGAINST Donald Trump (and other Republicans)?”
Ask stupid questions, get irrelevant and meaningless answers. Ask the right question, and the “enthusiasm gap” is not only nowhere near 70 percent, it’s actually in negative numbers as far as Trump is concerned.
So be very careful about “enthusiasm” here, and don’t be surprised when it isn’t what you want it to be — when someone asks the right question.
Not to beat a dead horse, but there’s no law or rule preventing DNC Powerbrokers at the convention from replacing not Just Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, for whatever real or imagined malady AND Kamala Harris on the VP part of the ticket at the same time, leaving an addled Biden to doodle with fidget spinners the rest of the year while Kamala sits at VP still, ever more irrelevant?
I guess that is the point I am making; the DNC could name and entire new ticket at the convention because Joe’s too sick, etc to stay on the ticket but fine to leave him as an ever lamer duck president for the rest of 2024 so that Kamala never gets elevated in his place, becoming the presumptive presidential nominee for the election?
This seems as much about how to delicately dump Joe Biden as it is to dump Kamala without sacrificing too much of the Dem’s Black voting block for Novemeber.
Biden ran unopposed in Indiana. Nikki took over 20% of the Republican votes.
There’s nothing here for us to celebrate.
Wake up.
Biden just underperformed every single democrat since at least 1992. Trying thr “ it’s uncontested is a nonsensical argument.
There have been several uncontested primaries since 1992 and Biden underperformed them all.
Trumps vote total was off 8% from 2020…. Biden’s was off 46%!
Even if you assumed every single Haley voter was a democrat crossing over, democrats still are down over 24% from 2020.
If you assume every Haley voter was a cross over voter and add them to Biden’s vote total he again underperformed every single democrat who has won IN since 1992, with the exception of Kerry and Gore.
IN was a disaster for the Dems, the press is going to play up the trump only got 79% of thr primary vote.. yet he put over 461k votes in the box, Biden didn’t even get 180k. More than 200k less than 2020.
Get your perspective out of the MSM narrative.
Indiana was by any metric a disaster for Biden.
If you assume all the Haley voters are indeed republicans (which is laughable) but if you do, R’s put 680k votes in the box.. and Dems put 178k.
Indiana is in no there at of having Biden win, but when your turnout is lowest in 30+ years that’s a bad bad signs
If the collapse is imminent, then Biden losing will be their key to victory.
A collapse under Trump will cement his legacy and allow for no GOP successor.
In 2028, whomever the fascists nominate will win easily along with a fascist Senate and House who will give amnesty to everyone inside our borders.
Game, set, match.
Technically they can’t cross over and can only vote in the primary they are registered in, however it is not uncommon for there to be cross-registration just to mess with primaries.
2032 election?
A bookie won’t even take those odds they will be counted as was the last election no mail ins to be seen this time.
This will be the crookedest election in American history the democrats last chance for full control of the government.
It’s been in the works for years.
Dems have cheated forever.
They hold a very slim margin of power despite epic cheating and 90% of everything colluding and conspiring on their behalf.
They are not acting like confident cheaters.
Michelle and Gavin are sizable betting longshots.
But most importantly insisting that the fix is in regardless is toxic.
Why would anyone bother to vote if the outcome is rigged?
Sigh,
The elector proportions are assigned after censuses.. they are not reassigning state elector counts between now and November.
The elector proportions are assigned after censuses
Censuses have already been done and reset for the democrats favor.
The democrats will do as the have done many times before
Michigan is a good example more votes than people Biden won by as much as 110% of the votes Ohio is another one and many more..
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