If he lost??
Hey, if he lost to Hillary in his own homestate, then how could he win a national election against her?
He who loses his own state IS a loser.
His not running makes him suspect to many.
It's not that simple. NY is a deep blue state, any Dem starts out with a HUGE advantage.
If he were to run for President, I would expect NY to be a battleground state, but I wouldn't expect him to win it necessarily. But that doesn't mean he couldn't win nationally.
Pataki has won 3 times in NY, yet, he'd have absolutely no chance of carrying it if he were the nominee. Governor and President, as well as Mayor and President, are very different offices, and people vote for them for different reasons.
I am a perfect example of that. I'd vote for Rudy in a heartbeat for Mayor/Governor/Senator, but I would only vote for him for President as a last resort, there is no way I would vote for him in the primary, because of his views on Abortion and Guns.
Here's my guess, however:
Rudy runs for President, doesn't get the nod, and runs for Mayor again in 2009.