I'm unable to give a complete answer but, will give below points:
Japanese yen is not the worlds reserve currency.
Only 16% of forex trades are in Japanese Yen vs. 88% for US Dollar - and most of that trade involves Japan itself or its international assets
70% of Japanese debt is monetized by its central bank, and most of the remainder is bought by large Japanese banks and funds. This is a quirk of highly homogenous Japanese society
Japan is still a huge holder of foreign assets (the USA is the opposite). Any defaults will only be within Japan, not to the rest of the world.
So for these reasons, Americans and Europeans generally have zero interest in Japan's financial issues
Because it buys most of the debt, the Japanese Central Bank specifically suppresses yields on Gov. Bonds. Japanese 10 year gov. bond is still only 0.84% (it was <0.5% only a year ago)
japan debt/GDP is indeed huge - 260%, but that's why its central bank MUST suppress interest rates. Its caught in a trap.
It didn't matter until recently, as the EU had negative interest rates and USA itself was close to zero. Now rates have risen elsewhere and the Japanese Yen is slowly crashing - Yen is at 30 years lows
Japan inflation, while reported low by Govt, is nonetheless also at 20 years high
IMHO, Japan's debt crisis is having grave effects on its society - the country is literally depopulating, as young people can't afford and see zero reason to have children.
I appreciate you taking the time.
The carry trade may have been a time saver.
I agree with the end and have posted as much several times.
Japan and it’s importance in the world has been constantly diminishing. It’s sad. As I really believe Japan will be annexed by another country at some point in I’ll go with the next 150yrs.
But hey the Nikkei finally recovered from 1989 recently and they may run a budget surplus shortly!