Replies

Unless President Trump has, at minimum, a 10 point lead in ALL demographics ... Biden will steal it again.

A 10 point Trump lead would be very hard to steal.

4 posted on 05/07/2024 10:37:32 AM PDT by CapnJack ( )

A 10 point Trump lead would be very hard to steal.

Rest assured that they have their best people working on that.

6 posted on 05/07/2024 10:46:07 AM PDT by SpaceBar

[Unless President Trump has, at minimum, a 10 point lead in ALL demographics ... Biden will steal it again.

A 10 point Trump lead would be very hard to steal.]

No theft involved. In 2020, Biden led by as much as 10% in the polls all through the election. In the weeks before, he averaged 8%. He won by 4%. In other words, the polls overestimated his victory margin by 4%.

Biden’s problem this polling cycle is that instead of leading by almost 10% all through, he is averaging a tie. Throw in a 4% bias in his favor, he is looking at a 4% loss in November. Note that Trump lost the popular vote by 2% to Hillary and still won on electoral votes.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Bottom line is that defeat in 2024 for Biden looks as inevitable as victory seemed in 2020.

14 posted on 05/07/2024 4:10:10 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room)

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