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Does shooting of Slovak leader heighten war risk?
Asia Times ^ | 16 May, 2024 | SPENGLER

Posted on 05/15/2024 5:45:35 PM PDT by MtnClimber

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Europe’s toughest opponent of military backing for Ukraine, was shot multiple times May 15 by an as yet unidentified assailant. He was transported by helicopter to a trauma center at Banska Bystrica, where he is fighting for his life. His condition is not known.

Few details have been published about the would-be assassin, who was captured after the incident. Reportedly a 71-year-old man used a legally-owned weapon. The shooting took place at a private government off-site meeting in Handlova, and it is not known how the gunman learned of and gained access to the closed event.

It is the first shooting of a European head of government since the assassination of Swedish Prime Minister Olaf Palme in 1986.

After two previous terms as prime minister Fico returned to office in 2023, in a coalition among his Direction-Social Democracy party and two other parties. He opposed shipping Western arms to Ukraine through Slovak territory and has opposed the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine. Instead, Fico said in a September 2023 interview, “Why don’t we force the warring parties, use the weight of the EU and the US to make them sit down and find some sort of compromise that would guarantee security for Ukraine?”

The Czech Republic may follow Slovakia’s opposition to the Ukraine war after next year’s parliamentary election. Andrej Babis’ ANO party has a decisive lead in voter polls. Along with Hungary, Slovakia stands to form a block with Czechia and Serbia in opposition to US and European Commission support for Ukraine.

The shooting recalls the July 31, 1914, assassination of French Socialist leader Jean Jaurès, his country’s leading opponent of war after the murder of Austria’s Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo the previous month. He was shot at a Paris café by an alleged lone gunman.

So far, we have only questions about the shooting of Fico and no answers. But the strategic background to Ukraine’s military position is dire, the country’s military itself reports, as undermanned and exhausted Ukrainian units succumb to the relentless pounding of Russian air attacks and artillery.

It isn’t clear what Russia has in mind as it pursues a reconnaissance in force around Kharkov, but the salient facts are not in dispute. NATO countries do not have enough shells and air defense missiles, and Ukraine does not have sufficient manpower, to push back Russia’s crawling offensive.

The Biden Administration won’t sit on its hands while the most important military conflict since Vietnam goes pear-shaped. In some ways Ukraine is more important than Vietnam although no American body bags are coming home.

Two years ago, the West believed that its advanced weaponry would defeat the Russian army and that sanctions would crush the Russian economy. Instead, the Westfaces a Russia supplied by China via a dozen other countries, a revitalized Russian military that has displayed ingenuity in adapting to the battlefield and, worst of all, the humiliation of a shriveled defense industrial base that cannot produce enough weapons to match Russian output.

The Biden Administration will look to the November elections, fearing the effect of a Ukrainian defeat at the polls, but its determination to prevent a Russian victory has deeper motivations: At stake is the credibility of American leadership in Europe and around the world.

The US and its allies have many options, none of them salubrious. One is to help Ukraine attack major targets inside Russia, a frequent theme of American hawks. Another is to deploy Western troops in Ukraine directly or, as some have proposed, through a mercenary force of trained Western pilots flying Western aircraft against the Russians.

The Biden Administration has declined to take such steps, for the obvious reason that they might lead to a wider war. That was before Russia appeared close to victory. The attempted assassination of a determined, credible and duly elected East European leader might prove to be the writing on the wall.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: slovakia
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To: Flash Bazbeaux
Didn't exist in 2008, but that didn't stop John McCain...


21 posted on 05/15/2024 8:27:05 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

“Kinda like when Lee attacked Gettysburg.”

Yes, somewhat, I was thinking of Hood around Atlanta and then in Tennessee. Your opponent is waging an attritional campaign against your side and you oblige him with repeated madcap frontal assaults (Franklin for one).


22 posted on 05/15/2024 9:46:43 PM PDT by rxh4n1
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To: rxh4n1
I thought it was a bad move for Zelensky to fire Valerii Zaluzhnyi. He was the only General who could probably disagree with Zelensky in public and get away with it.

That's why Zelensky got rid of him.

23 posted on 05/15/2024 9:50:11 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: Flash Bazbeaux

Well, that’s what happens when you rush trying to be a smart ass.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Understood. I tend to stick my foot in my mouth from time to time myself. I’m up on Slovakia because my daughter-in-law was born and raised there, her two kids are currently in school there, and I was there myself this past September.


24 posted on 05/16/2024 3:56:59 AM PDT by fortes fortuna juvat (Biden left our troops to die in Afghanistan and our military equipment to our enemy. Never forget.)
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To: rxh4n1
Pickett’s charge was one of the final military charges ever used like that.Average age of the men there:18.

Even in the movie version, many, many horses were killed in the charge of the Light Brigade.

25 posted on 05/16/2024 4:01:45 AM PDT by combat_boots
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To: citizen

Looking back, I wonder what his actual value to that empire was.

As is typical, the assassin was moslem.


26 posted on 05/16/2024 4:03:36 AM PDT by combat_boots
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To: MtnClimber
Technically Fico and his party are "left wing populists" - they are in favor of big government, government control of media and economy.

His party is SMER - "Direction - Social Democracy"

27 posted on 05/16/2024 5:28:13 AM PDT by Cronos (I identify as an ambulance, my pronounces are wee/woo)
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To: Cronos

OK, thanks for that info.


28 posted on 05/16/2024 5:33:44 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery and wildlife, click on my screen name for my FR home page. More photos added.)
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To: All
Slovakia's second main problem is that it is languishing economically and has no base for people to stay. Young people leave for Prague (big IT and other industries) or Vienna or Germany). And, on a population base of 5 million, they can't afford this.

It's capital Bratislava has the bulk of the economy and eastern slovakia languishes and is really poor

Even beautiful cities like Kosice are left aside

the bigger problem - to MY mind - and I just saw this last year when I went on a 2 week travel around Slovakia and touched Budapest -- Slovakia has no real history of high culture

Yes, the Putinistas on FR will jump and say "what about Ukraine" - but the Ukraine builds its national mythology around Kyivan Rus (and used to around Bandera) and now around its resistance to Putin's invasion

Slovakia on the other hand doesn't have this - it was part of the 9th century Great Moravia, but that entity didn't leave any physical or cultural remnants. After that it was dominated by Magyar (Hungarians).

In fact most "Hungarians" are heavily genetically slavic - take a look at their features, few have dominant Ugric genetics. Here are what the original Magyars looked like (photo of their Khanty relatives)

vs the Magyar people

Slovakia was a critical part of Hungary - all its art, history, castles etc. date from the Hungarian domination.

And it hasn't had the opportunity to build its own national mythos

29 posted on 05/16/2024 5:36:41 AM PDT by Cronos (I identify as an ambulance, my pronounces are wee/woo)
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To: MtnClimber

Too many people remember life under Soviet rule, and since Fico likes the Russians, he is a living reminder of that horror. Shooter’s motive may be that simple.


30 posted on 05/16/2024 7:02:59 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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