Free Republic

“HIMARS containers. Recently used.”

That has got to sting.

Given that there are few things on Earth that Artillerymen hate more than enemy Artillery, and that HIMARS outranges the Russian stuff, I am also confident that these helped rack up May’s record attrition of Russian Artillery.

Let’s send more!

“I can foresee the time when successful farmers now in South Africa will have to flee to Russia.”

Russia has taken in Boers from Zimbabwe (formerly Rhodesia) and South Africa in the past, and they have significantly contributed to the turnaround in Russian agricultural production - from a grain importer during the Soviet era, to a large grain exporter today.

Boers (literally translated from Afrikaans as “Farmers”) are World class productive farmers, and have been particularly successful immigrant groups for several countries to which they have emigrated.

There has been “White flight” out of South Africa for many years, encouraged by high crime and threatening rhetoric from radicals like the EFF (whose signature slogan is “Kill the Boers”), but it is a challenge for many to get immigration visas to nice countries.

I think many more would leave if they could.

The ANC lost its majority not because voters moved toward Conservative policies, but because the ANC coalition splintered.

Hyper-corrupt former ANC Chief Jacob Zuma took about 15% of the vote, and the Hyper-radical EFF took about 10%, out of the ANC’s base vote. Leftist Parties with strong Black racial affiliation still took about 2/3rds of the vote.

The current ANC leader (Cyril Ramaphosa, a self-made wealthy businessman) is seen as more of a technocrat than most of the former ANC leaders, so maybe he might seek a coalition with Conservatives to enact pagmatic economic policies, but politically, it seems more likely that he would prefer to re-consolidate his majority base, by buying off Zuma’s faction, back into the ANC fold.

Russian Urals crude oil peaked in mid-April over $78, and has been dropping since then. Now under $68.

“Ukrainian forces destroyed 1,160 Russian artillery systems in May, a record month since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Defense Ministry said on June 1.”

I believe that this was the record high month, since WWII.

Kyiv Independent reports:

"A Russian oil refinery in the northwestern Komi Republic caught fire on June 2, leading to casualties, the Komi Republic’s Investigative Committee said.

The committee said there were both injured and dead in the incident but didn't disclose further details...

...The oil refinery belongs to Russia's second-largest oil company, Lukoil. It is located four kilometers away from the city of Ukhta, according to the head of the Komi Republic, Vladimir Uiba.

Uiba said in a Telegram post that the fire was caused by "non-compliance with safety regulations" and not by a Ukrainian drone attack...

...The regional branch of the Ministry of Emergency Situations said that 74 people and 22 pieces of equipment were involved in extinguishing the fire."

Demilitarization of Russia is actually accelerating. From old Soviet storage yards, to Ukrainian scrapyards.

Kyiv Independent reports:

"Ukrainian forces destroyed 1,160 Russian artillery systems in May, a record month since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Defense Ministry said on June 1.

According to a graph posted by the ministry on X, the previous highest number of destroyed Russian artillery pieces — 976 — was recorded in March.

“It's another record. 1,160 Russian artillery systems were destroyed in May. It's the biggest number of artillery losses in two years of the war,” the Defense Ministry said, adding that the Ukrainian forces continue to “transform Russian weapons into scrap metal.”

Russia has lost a total of 13,184 artillery systems since the beginning of the all-out war, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on June 1."

I see that while I was gone, the Fellas bagged a Russian three star (the Russians themselves arrested some more of their own); more ships were sunk; jets shot down, open season has been declared on targets within Russia; and another mountain of Russian Infantry corpses was accumulated.

Also, good to see that we have been sending more Artillery. Good call.

It is a big job demilitarizing Russia, but it is getting done.

“the most important counter measure from this war will be anti-drone ECM.”

That should accelerate autonomous drones, with no command link link to jam, and license to kill.

ISW (10 May) reports that Russia has opened another front in the North, toward Kharkiv.

“Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine.”

“In Kaluga there is a strong fire at an oil refinery”

I guess that we will see if there are limitations in Russia’s capacity to restore these refineries, such as expending their stockages of spare components.

The best way to find out, is the keep hitting them, and see what breaks - but I suspect that the targeting is deliberately planned to overwhelm some aspect of their restoral capacity.

“Ukrainian UAVs also attacked the Salavatnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Bashkiria”

Ktiv Independent elaborates:

“A long-range drone operated by Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) attacked an oil refinery, Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat, in Russia’s Republic of Bashkortostan on May 9, an SBU source told the Kyiv Independent.

For the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine attacked facilities in Bashkortostan, some 1,500 kilometers from the country’s border, according to the source.

In April, Ukraine hit production facilities in Russia’s Tatarstan Republic, 1,300 kilometers away from the state border.

Gazprom Naftokhim Salavat is one of the largest oil refining and petrochemical production complexes in Russia. It specializes in the production of gasoline, diesel fuel, and other types of petroleum products.

The drone attack damaged an oil catalytic cracking unit of the refinery.”

“The corporate exodus from Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine has cost foreign companies more than $107 billion in writedowns and lost revenue”

Add it to their reparations bill.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Ukraine has caught up with Russia in the production of domestically-made kamikaze drones similar (range, payload) to Iranian-designed Shahed-131/136, Herman Smetanin, the head of the state-owned Ukrainian Defense Industry company, said in an interview with ArmyInform published on May 8.”

Kyiv Independent reports:

EU ambassadors agree on using Russian assets revenue to fund Ukraine

“EU ambassadors agreed in principle on a measure for using profits from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s recovery and military needs, the Belgian Presidency of the EU said on May 8.

Ukraine’s Western partners and other allies froze around $300 billion in Russian assets at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Roughly two-thirds are held in the Belgium-based financial services company Euroclear...

...While the U.S. proposed seizing Russian assets outright in accordance with their recently passed REPO act, the EU has been more hesitant, fearing legal and fiscal pitfalls of confiscation.

In March, the European Commission submitted a proposal on using 90% of the generated funds to purchase weapons for Ukraine and allocate the remaining 10% to the EU budget to support the country’s defense industry.

The proposed measure would have allocated around 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) to Ukraine per year.

The plan met opposition from those member states who maintain military neutrality or non-alignment policy and thus opposed funding Ukraine’s defense needs, instead preferring to channel the money toward reconstruction efforts.

The final form of the proposition recently approved by EU ambassadors remains unclear.”

Trial balloon from a Surrogate of Moscow? Trying to generate a little diplomatic momentum, to counter the upcoming Peace Summit in Switzerland, G-7 and NATO Summits? Or maybe just trying to distract from continuing arms supplies to Ukraine?

Kyiv Independent reports:

Slovak president suggests hosting potential Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Bratislava

“Slovak President Peter Pellegrini called for peace between Russia and Ukraine and said that if necessary, Bratislava could host possible talks, Aktuality reported on May 8.

The Slovak president is an ally of Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has been a vocal critic of military aid for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

Speaking on the occasion of the Victory in Europe Day in the city of Banska Bystrica, the recently-elected head of state said that European leaders have a responsibility to ensure peace in Ukraine to avert “tragic scenarios.”

“Let’s talk about a ceasefire, about peace scenarios, let’s mobilize diplomacy and approach weapons as a last resort,” Pellegrini said without elaborating on concrete steps to achieve peace.”

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Armenia will not partake in the financing of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Yerevan announced on May 8.

This comes as the latest in a series of steps the country has taken to distance itself from the Russian-led security alliance.

Speaking to Factor.am, the country’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed Armenia would not contribute to the CSTO’s 2024 budget, which was adopted in November of last year.

The CSTO, which was established in 2002, includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan...

...The CSTO did not intervene during Azerbaijan’s offensive (that captured Armenian-occupied Nagorno Karabakh) in September 2023.

Pashinyan said in February that Armenia had “frozen” its participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) because it failed to uphold its objectives regarding Armenia.

In recent months, Armenia has further sought to distance itself from Russia, repeatedly accusing Moscow of being an unreliable partner.

In March, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan revealed that the country is considering applying for membership in the European Union, aiming to strengthen ties with the West. Yerevan also asked Russian “peacekeepers” who have been stationed at Yerevan’s international airport since the country’s independence to leave.

In January 2024, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court, becoming one of 124 countries obliged to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he steps foot in national territory.”

oilPrice.com reports:

EU Proposes First Batch Of Sanctions On Russian LNG

“Politico has reported that the European Commission has proposed sanctions on Russia’s LNG sector as part of Brussels’ 14th sanctions package against Russia.

The proposed sanctions would prevent EU countries from re-exporting Russian LNG after receiving it and also ban EU involvement in upcoming LNG projects in Russia. However, the measures wouldn’t directly bar Russian LNG imports to the EU.

Similar to previous sanctions, the import ban is intended to disrupt Putin’s ability to continue financing his war in Ukraine. Although Russian LNG accounted for just 5% of the bloc’s energy consumption in 2023, it still netted the Kremlin ~$8 billion in revenues.

The proposal also suggests prohibiting the use of EU ports, finance and services to re-export Russian LNG, essentially meaning that Russia would have to overhaul its LNG export model. Currently, Russia supplies LNG to Asia through Europe, where Spain, Belgium and France are major hubs.

“If they can’t transship in Europe, they might have to take their ice-class tankers on longer journeys,” Laura Page, a gas expert at the Kpler data analytics firm, has told Politico, adding that Russia “may not be able to get out as many loadings from Yamal because their vessels can’t get back as quickly.”

Norway and the U.S. have replaced Russia as Europe’s biggest gas supplier: Last year, Norway supplied 87.8 bcm (billion cubic meters) of gas to Europe, good for 30.3% of total imports while the U.S. supplied 56.2 bcm, accounting for 19.4% of total...

...it’s going to be interesting to see whether the natural gas price gains will hold with Europe having exited the winter withdrawal season with record amounts of natural gas in storage. The continent ended the season with more than 70 bcm of natural gas in its stores, the highest on record for this time of the year.”