Triangulate this, let me try this again

My big mouth blog ^ | 01/05/11 | Flood

[jpf]

There are only three situations in life where it's a good idea to come across as nuts:

A. Riding the subway alone at night B. While on trial for double homicide C. As President of the Islamic Republic of Iran

I got some feedback from yesterday's post questioning my sanity. So I re-read it... okay, you're right, it read like a Keith Olbermann special comment.

Can we pretend yesterday never happened? It was a lousy day anyway, you didn't win the Mega Millions jackpot and my blog post made no sense. Of course if we erase yesterday we miss out on Nancy Pelosi sounding like a complete twit, but that happens everyday.

If you missed her comment from yesterday, evidently the national debt she helped run up as speaker isn't really there. Shhh, don't tell the Chinese.

So what's my excuse for the crappy post yesterday? I've been under some strain lately, the new Congress is being sworn in today, plus the cable guy is coming between 3-7. If you must know I've been having flashbacks ever since Dick Morris used the S-word (shutdown) on Hannity the other night.

In my nightmares it's 1996 all over again . There's Bob Dole tumbling off the stage because his advance team made a handrail out of paper mache´, there's Newt Gingrich giving a five minute speech at the RNC about beach volleyball, there's Al Gore dancing the macarena. I wake up screaming "I am the matador, I am the matador!" I don't even know what that's supposed to mean.

1996 is the year the Reagan revolution died. Sure Bush lost in 1992, but that was a blip on the screen, a mistake soon to be corrected, an anomaly. The 92' election was, according to some of us, Bush's just punishment for raising taxes. If anything it was proof that Reaganism still lived, further confirmed by the 1994 Congressional elections. In 96' we'd take it all, the House, the Senate, the White House and restore the natural order of things.

The 1996 election cycle is when all the really bad stuff started to happen; the far left lurching of our politics, the overt media bias against conservatives, the massive expansion of the federal government, the acceptance that China will soon replace the United States as the dominant power in the world.

Lost by the election of 96' were the chance to really end the era of big government, the chance to create a post cold war world that cemented the dominance of American ideals, a chance to kill Bin Laden's punk ass while the towers still stood.

At the time 1996 was seen as minor as far as Presidential elections go, but it set the course we have been on ever since and the 1995 government shut down made it all possible. The Republicans lost that battle with Clinton in spite of having every advantage. They blinked and he won four more years to chase interns and ride Air Force One.

So here we are again following the 2010 elections and its my firm belief that Republicans should have one overriding objective, making sure Barack Obama loses the 2012 election. Better than that, Republicans should aim to run up the score, win a landslide and with it super majorities in both Houses of Congress. Any strategy or tactic must further that goal above all else, to do otherwise forgets the lessons of 1995. It is my judgement that telegraphing a government shut down is counterproductive to over arching goal of winning in 2012.

I can count, the Democrats still have the Senate and the White House so repeal of the healthcare law is not possible in this Congress. Dick Morris thinks Obama will back down on healthcare if the government is shut down, he's wrong, Obama will never back down on healthcare. Obama considers this his signature achievement, way to pick a fight on the one issue on which Obama won't backdown. Plus a fight with Republicans over Healthcare and a government shut down will help unify the liberal base.

That's what happened in 1996, slick Willie had a unified base coming out of the shutdown confrontation, leaving him free to triangulate his way to victory.

As I mentioned yesterday... wait we agreed that yesterday didn't happen... it may not be essential to repeal obamacare in this Congress anyway. Sometimes its better to have the issue for the next election. I think about this two ways:

1. The supreme court is going to strike down the healthcare law anyway (because the personal mandate is unconstitutional), possibly rendering the issue mute.

2. If Obama goes away, so does Obamacare. Repeal will be a snap on the afternoon of January 21, 2013 with large Republican majorities in both houses and President Pence to sign the repeal into law. He can give out pens and then have lunch.

Some people think I'm wrong, they think a confrontation on obamacare is just what is needed to pave the way for 2012. Except independents don't like confrontation and Seniors like their social security checks to be on time. Elections are about blame and right now Obama gets all of it and he's looking desperately for an opportunity to share it with Republicans.

I'm not suggesting that Republicans in the House should just lay down, they should create a little gridlock, just not a ten car pile up outside the beltway. By all means they should vote to repeal obamacare, just don't go to the mats over it.

Whatever Republicans do in the House of Representatives they need to make sure Obama owns the blame, he deserves it after all. A messy confrontation only gives him the chance to pass it off in the scuffle.