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The GOP civil war: Pregame predictions
Washington Times | October 22, 2013 | Itís All Smoke and Whiskey by Conor Higgins

Posted on 10/23/2013 2:48:35 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

"...........[SNIP]...........But while the factions within the GOP prepare themselves for what is sure to be a “West Side Story” type rumble, it is possible that the “Establishment” may have overplayed its hand and compromised its position without even realizing it.

To the Establishment, the Tea Party is political plutonium, explosive and too hot to handle right now. They need to cut ties with it, bring it to heel, or spin it so that it seems like they are all one big happy family, which probably won’t happen. They believe that conservative voters want to see the individuals responsible for partially shutting down the government held to account. Well, things may not be as they perceive them to be.

It could be that instead of conservative voters demanding the heads of the Tea Party “rebel scum” they could be looking at the GOP Establishment in a whole new light. Instead of being seen as the sensible side of the Republican Party that worked with the Democrats and the President to re-open the government, many conservative voters feel betrayed.

They now see the Establishment Republicans for what they are, and that is the section of the Republican Party that represents business as usual in Washington, DC.

The very ideas that the Tea Party won elections on, the very ideas that the Tea Party has campaigned on, limited government and a change in Washington, are the very things the Establishment showed they wanted nothing to do with. The conservative principles which Republican voters hold dear are not reflected in the majority of GOP representatives.

What about those who agree with conservative values but voted with the Establishment?

They will have to choose sides soon in this GOP “civil war.” They will have to prove to those conservative voters that they truly do want to limit government, follow the Constitution, and balance the budget, and are not just reciting stump speeches to grab the “right leaning” vote. Or, they will have to prove to Establishment leaders and fundraisers that they can be good boys and girls and play nicely. These Senators and Representatives will have to decide whether or not they want to be part of the new school or the old school.

According to Gallup, 50 percent of those polled on October 18 were in favor of either “scaling back or repealing” Obamacare. And while partially shutting down the government may not have been the way of going about it, there is real desire and will out there among voters to see the ACA addressed with the intent of limiting it or even doing away with it.

So while Establishment Republicans believe that they did the right thing in dealing with the Democrats and turning on the Tea Party, the numbers and the polls do not suggest that they made the right move. Conservative voters could look at the deal as bad form. The problem with this is that the Establishment Republicans are touting this deal as the saving grace of the Republic. They think they are showing their base that they are willing to work with the Democrats in order to get their voices heard, and they think that caving in to the demands of the Democrats and President Obama was the way to do it. This is not the way to solidify your base in the conservative spectrum.

Now as conservative voters look at the choices they have of who to represent them in Congress they have only two options. On one hand, there is the Tea Party and the politicians who were so convinced of their righteousness that they were willing to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous negative media attention to achieve their ends. They were willing, and are willing, to sacrifice their political careers for the sake of their ideals.

On the other hand, there is the Establishment Republicans who are more than comfortable with business as usual, and who decided to cut their “losses”. The problem with cutting your “losses” in this situation is that you believed that your only losses would be the credibility of the Tea Party, who have been a source of pain for the right of center Republicans. And in an attempt to silence them the Establishment gave up one of the last vestiges of hope of confronting Obama on reckless spending and confronting Obama on the ACA. Their failure to realize that the “losses” they were cutting were not those pesky Tea Party kids, but their own credibility among their voter base, may ultimately lose them the GOP “civil war.” In addition, it may ultimately swing in more meddlesome Tea Party politicians, who will after the coming storm, be the only truly conservative voice left in Congress for those Americans who feel as though the Establishment made a deal with the devil to stick around the dance.

In the end, if Republicans cannot resolve their lovers quarrel the Democrats will take advantage of the “house divided” situation and make political gains in key gubernatorial and congressional races. But if the Tea Party is smart enough to capitalize on the Establishment Republicans miscalculation, then it will be the Tea Party who emerges victorious and better positioned when this “splendid little war” has run its course.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Health/Medicine; Politics
KEYWORDS: conservatism; gopcivilwar; gope; shutdown; teaparty
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1 posted on 10/23/2013 2:48:35 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All
Sorry - here is the LINK: The GOP civil war: Pregame predictions
2 posted on 10/23/2013 2:49:43 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The current situaion here in the U.S. is sounding more and more like Star Wars every day


3 posted on 10/23/2013 3:12:03 AM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The partial government shutdown affected only 17% of the government which needs to be downsized and it partially cut spending for Obamacare as well. What’s the point of reversing this?


4 posted on 10/23/2013 3:12:35 AM PDT by MulberryDraw (That which cannot be paid, won't be paid.)
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To: jsanders2001

The current situaion here in the U.S. is sounding more and more like Star Wars every day

Soros = Emporer Palatine
Obama = Dark Vader


5 posted on 10/23/2013 3:13:40 AM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: MulberryDraw

The tragedy of the partial shutdown is that it was not made permanent with intentions to steadily increase the portion shut down.


6 posted on 10/23/2013 3:37:10 AM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINEhttp://steshaw.org/economics-in-one-lesson/)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

And this is why I was not in favor of the shutdown stunt.

The GOP will fragment, and when that happens we will wake up with the Dems controlling all three branches of government.

The GOPe has now realized the TEA party is its biggest threat, and will start actively campaigning against it. Which pretty much insures that 2014 will go to the Dems.

The shutdown stunt had zero chance of success, and a high probability of splitting the party when it is weak already


7 posted on 10/23/2013 4:09:15 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
History: in 1856, the Establishment Whigs (RINOS of the day) wanted to ignore slavery and just give away their goodies. The Tea Party, then called the Republicans, wanted to get serious about ending slavery by starting in the territories. They split the vote and put in Dem James Buchanan. But in 1860, The Dem radicals had so overplayed THEIR hand that THEY split their own party and the new Republicans won and didn't look back til, really, 1912 (I don't count Cleveland, who was more "Republican" than someone like Harrison.

A party split amble a good thing.

8 posted on 10/23/2013 4:11:45 AM PDT by LS ('Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually.' Hendrix)
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To: redgolum

The Republican either rethinks it’s position on the Tea Party or it dies.

If it dies it deserves to die. Those killing it are McCain and his crowd of old hangers on who should have been gone long ago.

We need an age limit for those serving in Congress and term limits. If we don’t get them we need to age limit and term limit them with our vote.


9 posted on 10/23/2013 4:15:38 AM PDT by Venturer (Keep Obama and you aint seen nothing yet.)
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To: redgolum

Gee there is an ideological split in the Republican Party because their is an ideological split in the Republican Party. Deal with it. Karl is that you?


10 posted on 10/23/2013 4:17:28 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: redgolum

The TEA party has now realized the GOPe is its biggest threat, and will start actively campaigning against it. Which pretty much insures that 2014 will go to the Dems.

The GOP will fragment, and when that happens we will wake up with the Dems controlling all three branches of government.

Yes, this is true, the GOPe needs to be done away with.


11 posted on 10/23/2013 4:18:14 AM PDT by caver (Obama: Home of the Whopper)
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To: redgolum

Got news for you buddy....the party was split a long time ago...

We are going to drive the progressives OUT or burn the party to the ground....COUNT ON IT!

THAT is the price for TREASON.


12 posted on 10/23/2013 4:35:49 AM PDT by rightwingextremist1776
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To: Venturer
Ok, and in part I agree.

But you just handed the Dems a ten to twenty year majority. During which the demographic change is such that the TEA party will be gone anyway.

Think strategy, not tactics. To much of the GOP/TEA party is based on short term views, and not long term goals.

13 posted on 10/23/2013 5:21:35 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: central_va
LOL! No.

Mearly a man who has studied history, and knows that it is much easier to destroy than to build. Blowing up the GOP may be fun, but making a viable party in our current system is almost impossible.

Do you want ten to twenty years of uncontested Dem majorities in order to pee on the GOP?

14 posted on 10/23/2013 5:23:15 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: redgolum
I don't know about you, but these "GOP Establishment" types are the very same RINOs that we all spend all of our time despising around here.

If we have to sit out of power a few cycles to purge the party of them, it's worth it in my view. There's no difference between having them in the party and us sitting out elections anyway. They virtually always vote with the Des anyways.

15 posted on 10/23/2013 5:27:43 AM PDT by HeartlandOfAmerica (Obama&Admin=An army of deer, led by a lion is more to be feared than an army of lions led by a deer)
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To: redgolum

Yo are really what I hate the most. The Tea Party is based on PRINCIPLES of the founding of the country and the constitution. You little system gamer types need to STHU.


16 posted on 10/23/2013 5:28:38 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: HeartlandOfAmerica

Then so be it. I am almost to the point where the game is no longer fun, and I know enough history to see the next act. We are waiting for Augustus now.

But if you are trying to advance your goals, it will take a generation or two at least. The GOP isn’t much, but it at least wants to appear that they are the loyal opposition. Take it out and you don’t even have that half a seat at the table.


17 posted on 10/23/2013 5:30:13 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: redgolum

We cannot win by electing Democrats in RINO clothing no matter what the consequences.

Long term, short term, doesn’t matter. Just winning is not the answer if the Republicans we elect think the same way Democrats do


18 posted on 10/23/2013 5:31:28 AM PDT by Venturer (Keep Obama and you aint seen nothing yet.)
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To: redgolum
To me, that choice is either to support Ted Cruz and Mike Lee or John McCain and Lindsey Graham. There's no contest and no question of who I support.

I want a Republican Party that will take on these liberal ideologues, not one that will fight it's own party to help them pass all of their favorite pet crusades.

19 posted on 10/23/2013 5:56:45 AM PDT by HeartlandOfAmerica (Obama&Admin=An army of deer, led by a lion is more to be feared than an army of lions led by a deer)
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To: central_va

Strategy you fool.

Politics is a game.

The TEA party is the vehicle for someone. It appeared quickly with a lot of funding and organization. Someone is using the TEA party as stalking horse.


20 posted on 10/23/2013 5:59:17 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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