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Retail Disaster: Holiday Sales Crater by 11%, Online Spend Declines
Zero Hedge ^ | 11/30/2014 | Tyler Durden

Posted on 11/30/2014 5:16:39 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Last year was bad. This year is an outright disaster.

As we reported earlier using ShopperTrak data, the first two days of the holiday shopping season were already showing a -0.5% decline across bricks-and-mortar stores, following a "cash for clunkers"-like jump in early promotions which pulled demand forward with little follow through in the remaining shopping days. However, not even we predicted the shocker just released from the National Retail Federation, the traditionally cheery industry organization, which just reported absolutely abysmal numbers: sales during the four-day Thanksgiving holiday period crashed by a whopping 11% from $57.4 billion to $50.9 billion, confirming what everyone but the Fed knows by now: the US middle class is being obliterated, and that key driver of 70% of US economic growth is in the worst shape it has been since the Lehman collapse, courtesy of 6 years of Fed's ruinous central planning. 

Demonstrating the sad state of America's "economic dynamo", shoppers spent an average only $380.95, down 6.4% from $407.02 a year earlier. In fact, as the NRF charts below demonstrate, there was a decline across virtually every tracked spending category (source):

As the WSJ reports, NRF's CEO Matt Shay attributed the drop to a combination of factors, including the fact that retailers moved promotions earlier this year in attempt to get people out sooner and avoid what happened last year when people didn’t finish their shopping because of bad weather.

Also did we mention the NRF is perpetually cheery and always desperate to put a metric ton of lipstick on a pig? Well, hold on to your hats folks:

He also attributed the declines to better online offerings and an improving economy where “people don’t feel the same psychological need to rush out and get the great deal that weekend, particularly if they expected to be more deals,” he said.

And of course the sprint vs marathon comparisons, such as this one: "The holiday season and the weekend are a marathon not a sprint,” NRF Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay said on a conference call. Odd how that metaphor is never used when the (seasonally-adjusted) sprint beats the marathoners.

So there you have it: a 11% collapse in retail spending has just been spun as super bullish for the US economy, whereby US consumers aren't spending because the economy is simply too strong, and the only reason they don't spend is because they will spend much more later. Or something.

Apparently the plunge in Americans who even care about bargains is also an indication of an economic resurgence:

The retail trade group said the number of people who went shopping over the four-day weekend declined by 5.2% to 134 million, from 141 million last year.

Finally, what we said earlier about a surge in online sales, well forget it - it was a lie based on the now traditional skewed perspectives from a few self-servcing industry organizations:

Despite many retailers offering the same discounts on the Web as they offered in stores, the Internet didn’t attract more shoppers or more spending than last year. Online sales accounted for 42% of sales racked up over the four-day period, the same percentage as last year, though up from 26% in 2006, the trade group said.

In fact, it was worse: "Shoppers spent an average $159.55 online, down 10.2% from $177.67 last year."

But the propaganda piece de resistance is without doubt the following:

“A highly competitive environment, early promotions and the ability to shop 24/7 online all contributed to the shift witnessed this weekend,” Mr. Shay said.

So to summarize: holiday sales plunged, and Americans refused to shop because the economy is "stronger than ever" and because Americans have the option of shopping whenever, which is why they didn't shop in the first place. That, and of course plunging gasoline prices leading to... plunging retail sales, just as all the economists "correctly" predicted.

Goebbels approves.



TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: blackfriday; consumer; retail
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1 posted on 11/30/2014 5:16:39 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Doesn’t everyone pretty much have all the iPhones and big-screen TVs they need, already?


2 posted on 11/30/2014 5:18:08 PM PST by dfwgator
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3 posted on 11/30/2014 5:20:24 PM PST by RedMDer (I don't listen to Liars but when I do I know it's Barack Obama.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Gun sales were booming. That should tell a person a lot.


4 posted on 11/30/2014 5:20:47 PM PST by dforest
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To: SeekAndFind
Hold the hysteria until the online sales figures come in.

Would not be surprised if Internet sales were 15% over last year, offsetting the retail numbers and then some.

So potentially good news for UPS truck drivers and warehouse pickers. Not so good for those working in brick & mortar places.

5 posted on 11/30/2014 5:20:54 PM PST by SamAdams76
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To: SeekAndFind

one thing we’ve noticed is just how few genuine bargains are on offer this year.

(and yes, they’re pretty much things everybody already has).

we went to three major shopping malls. There were many customers walking around and looking, talking, having coffee and snacks in the “food courts.” There were, however, precious few buyers. You hardly saw anybody carrying any purchases out of the malls.

Half of this must be the krappy economy under Obama and Comrades. But, people will still buy some things if they’re real bargains. That was pretty much absent (so far, at least) this year.

We had an Orange Julius and left.


6 posted on 11/30/2014 5:23:19 PM PST by faithhopecharity ((Brilliant, Profound Tag Line Goes Here, just as soon as I can think of one..))
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To: dfwgator

Once the over-spend cycle has been broken, it becomes easier to spend less and less each year.


7 posted on 11/30/2014 5:23:42 PM PST by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord.)
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To: dfwgator

And if they don’t, they can just go to Ferguson and loot a store.


8 posted on 11/30/2014 5:24:11 PM PST by fatnotlazy
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To: dfwgator
Doesn’t everyone pretty much have all the iPhones and big-screen TVs they need, already?

A Target employee told me something similar. I was there Thursday night and folks were walking right by the stacks of tvs with screaming low prices. The only scramble appeared to be for high end iPads which were being sold with a big $$ gift card attached.

9 posted on 11/30/2014 5:24:41 PM PST by nascarnation (Impeach, Convict, Deport)
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To: fatnotlazy

[they can just go to Ferguson and loot a store.]

What store?


10 posted on 11/30/2014 5:24:46 PM PST by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I guess it’s safe now to believe our lyin’ eyes.


11 posted on 11/30/2014 5:25:01 PM PST by rockinqsranch ((Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will. They ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.))
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To: SeekAndFind

With more money towards taxes, utilities, and insurance ...why would spending on gifts increase?


12 posted on 11/30/2014 5:25:44 PM PST by BookmanTheJanitor
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To: dfwgator

Maybe people are just tired of wasting money on crap they don’t need.


13 posted on 11/30/2014 5:26:44 PM PST by stinkerpot65 (Global warming is a Marxist lie.)
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To: SeekAndFind

But but but Obama’s economy is doing great, gas prices are down (due to increased supply; had absolutely nothing to do with Obama), unemployment is down (due to skewed and misleading figures consisting of holiday employment, part-time jobs being counted as full-time jobs, and hundreds of thousands of people giving up looking for work no longer being counted).

Everything else has gone up in cost; healthcare premiums up at least double, groceries up at least 33%, utilities are up, rent is up, etc...


14 posted on 11/30/2014 5:27:24 PM PST by jsanders2001
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To: SeekAndFind

My daughter went to Kohl’s on Black Friday and said they were busy but not crazy- and only took her 10 minutes to check out, no long lines.


15 posted on 11/30/2014 5:28:40 PM PST by Tammy8
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To: SamAdams76

I shop online and I’m only half done a/o today.


16 posted on 11/30/2014 5:29:26 PM PST by Let's Roll (Before it can get any better it has to stop getting worse - vote 4 most conservative available)
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To: SeekAndFind

The media will say this us due to the “ferguson boycott of Black Friday”. They’ll be lying tho.


17 posted on 11/30/2014 5:30:08 PM PST by uncitizen (I weep for my country)
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To: faithhopecharity

I’ve posted the same thing about malls in general over the past few years; many people (mostly “replacement Americans” in my area), but few carrying any purchases. I’ve also noticed that more space is dedicated to food (the kiosks in the walkways themselves, which used to sell merchandise), and also we have a tattoo parlor now in our mall.

Cellphone stores (which also service) are also filling former stores as well.


18 posted on 11/30/2014 5:30:49 PM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: BookmanTheJanitor
With more money towards taxes, utilities, and insurance ...why would spending on gifts increase?

BINGO. What is driving down Christmas sales this year is the increasing amount your paycheck going to pay for higher taxes and especially the Obamacare mandates. In short, less discretionary income in 2014 is about to hammer Christmas sales.

Maybe it's high time we massively overhaul both government regulations and our tax laws so people enjoy far more take-home pay after taxes and insurance needs.

19 posted on 11/30/2014 5:31:23 PM PST by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: SeekAndFind

I have 9 kids, and I’ve bought 3 things so far, from Amazon. We just don’t have any extra this year. Sad but true. There was a time when I would go for Black Friday sales. They kept moving the sales earlier, and I don’t care to shop on Thanksgiving. So they’ve lost me. It’s gonna be a small Christmas this year. I’d rather do a cool, meaningful service project with the kids.


20 posted on 11/30/2014 5:31:58 PM PST by Marie Antoinette (:)
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