I think he does. Look at the data. Orders of magnitude. One in the general, two in EV.
If Soros can’t apply enough scaling to the machine to overcome the popular vote margin, then the EC vote could be an order of magnitude bigger.
Humphrey lost by an order of magnitude if I recall.
Your point, however, that it should be taken with a grain of salt, still stands.
What he’s right about is that there is a several order of magnitude difference in enthusiasm. It’s a massive difference. What he’s missing is the scale factor that says, “Every 10 percent difference in enthusiasm translates to X popular votes and Y electoral votes.”
If he went that step, sat back, and gauged his accuracy, he could make himself a lot of money next year, and put a lot of political consultants and pollsters out of business.