Price of .22 Ammunition to Drop

Gun Watch ^ | 15 November, 2016 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

In the run up to the 2016 election, the price of .22 ammunition has been fluctuating up and down around 6 cents a cartridge for baseline bulk ammunition.  The reasons are clear.  Production of .22 ammunition is up by about two billion rounds a year, responding to over the top demand for the last four years.

Part of the demand is structural.  Many new gun owners and shooters have been created.  Many of the younger members were raised on first person shooter games like Doom, Golden Eye, Battlefield, and Call of Duty.

People in the industry have reported that the new generation of shooters is more likely to go through 500 rounds of .22 in a shooting session, instead of 50.  Moreover, decent .22 rifles and pistols have become relatively cheap.  A Marlin model 60 today can be had, brand new, for $150.   A Savage model 64 can be had for $116, and the Mossberg semi-auto for $109.

The Model 60 cost about $40 in 1960.  A constant dollar calculator shows that would be $322 in 2016.  So the price has dropped in half in constant dollars. Another way to look at this is the minimum wage in 1960 was a dollar an hour.  It would take a full week of 40 hours to buy the rifle.

Today, the minimum wage (federal) is $7.25.  It would take a person about half a week (21 hours) to buy a model 60 today.  That correlates pretty well with the constant dollar calculator.

There are a 100 million or more .22 rifles and pistols in the United States.  They are incredibly popular, and with very little care they last for many decades.


Some of the increased 2 billion rounds a year will go to feeding the increased structural demand.

But a considerable amount of the demand has been a bubble created by concern over gun control.  It is one of the few areas where President Barack Obama was stymied by the American people and Congress.  Hillary Clinton fed the fear with her campaign rhetoric and potential Supreme Court justices.

With the election of Donald Trump, that fear will be subsiding.  Many .22 owners have built up a stockpile of a few thousand rounds of ammunition.  That ammunition has not been shot, and it will be around for a while.

I expect the demand for .22 ammunition to drop when the reality of a Trump administration hits home.  The current protests and riots are not helping.  Nor are the conspiracy theories about a Trump assassination.

After President Trump is safely inaugurated, and starts to move his legislative agenda, demand will drop and prices will fall.

I expect bulk .22 ammunition to be available for 4 cents a round by October of 2017.

©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.

Link to Gun Watch

[marktwain]

.22 Ammunition prices have been in a bubble for four years. The bubble will deflate with a Trump administration. The question is: How fast?

[Gaffer]

I gauge 22 LR availability by when/if my local Walmart has it. Even now, the availability, even in odd lots hasn’t changed for what seems like years now. Whatever does come in every 2-3 weeks disappears quickly. 22 MRF is even less available.

[Lazamataz]

Aw crap. I just bought 4000.

How about gun prices and other ammo?

[moovova]

I might have to loosen up on my “horde” of 22LR ammo and go poke some holes in paper. If I ever feel bad about my plinking with larger calibers...pulling out the Ruger Mark III, or the 10/22 always makes me feel better. Just plain fun to shoot.

[Noamie]

Article makes a good point about how video games have created a new generation of gun owners. I know more than one person who had a favorite type of gun in a game and eventually bought one, not having owned a gun previously. Just something to consider if a person is traditionally a, “there is nothing good about video games” type.

[marktwain]

Gun prices will definitely drop. I am already getting reports of that.

Other ammo will likely decline, but it has already dropped some since the high point. Centerfire is much more available than it was.

Look for imported surplus 7.62x39 and 5.45x39 to become more available and for the price to drop. That may take a year or so, for import permits to be approved and go into effect.

[drpix]

From the article: "...a considerable amount of the demand has been a bubble created by concern over gun control.";

Ammunition prices predicted to drop with Trump presidency - after gun grabbing Obama and the fear of Hillary presidency have have keep them in a bubble.

Also note: "Ford to Trump: We' ll make Lincolns in Kentucky, not Mexico". Excerpt:

"Ford Executive Chairman Bill Ford has told President-elect Donald Trump that the automaker no longer plans to move production of its Lincoln MKC luxury SUV from Louisville to Mexico."

Gun owning American citizens, in American cars - from sea to shining sea - is what America was always about. Trump is already starting to "make America great again!"

[niteowl77]

This past week, we tried out a number of new .22 LR handguns.* This is something we have not done for quite a few years, as we really don't NEED a new .22 LR handgun at this point in our lives. Nonetheless, it was fun... and although the "Great .22 LR Drought" already abated somewhat in this neck of the woods, there was almost a sense of abundance (ammunition-wise) on the shelves of the various LGS.

(I don't bother to check the Mega-Lo-Marts anymore, so YMMV.)

Mr. niteowl77

*Shooting demographics have changed immensely, and this is reflected in the choice of currently-offered .22 LR handguns. I lament the scarcity of all-steel, multi-generational durability that used to be common, but that didn't keep me from enjoying myself with the "polymer and pot metal" upstarts.

[Candor7]

Good News.I need 10K to put in the larder.

[MV=PY]

"This past week, we tried out a number of new .22 LR handguns.* "

Fun! What were your favorites?

[rktman]

Hey Dean. Thanks for the update. It kinda appears, in some circles, that the reality of a Trump administration will NEVER be accepted. LOL! I kinda look at it this way. We survived 8 years of the lyin’ king, they can certainly make it through 4 years(min) of Trump. Unless they choose not to. Now it’s time to use some of the stock pile. May have to adjust for windage today since it seems the wind is coming up pretty good.

[Blueflag]

Agreed. It pains me to shoot the .308 AR-10. $$$$$

Well, before I sold it, actually ;-)

[Sasparilla]

...I gauge 22 LR availability by when/if my local Walmart has it...

The local Bass Pro Shops location usually has it now.

[marktwain]

Let’s make sure it is 8 years of Trump and 8 years of President Pence.

The wind is at their back. Always better to take over an organization that is demoralized and not working well.

Lots of upside to go to.

Probably one of the first things to do is to get honest reporting on the state of the economy, and let people know just how badly the Obama administration has screwed things up.

[Lurker]

I’m sure gun prices will drop a bit. Although it’s hard to imagine the costs of ARs to come down much more. S&W M&P rifles are under $800 or so at Cabelas when on sale.

Don’t see how they can go much below that.

L

[Gaffer]

Yes, so do gun shops, but they always charge more.....Walmart is my gauge as I said.

[marktwain]

I expect ARs to be available below $500 for basic models.

[Lurker]

That would be great. Mrs. L is putting together her parts list to build her own. I made the mistake of letting her shoot mine and a match in September.

Not only did she beat me on that stage, she immediately said she needed one of her very own built to her exacting specifications.

LOL.

Best and thanks for all the posts.

L

[fatboy]

My Dad ran a Jr. rifle club for many years. Me, one of my sisters and two of my brothers shot in matches for many years, smallbore 3&4 position and did quite well. Since my Dad ran the club I was on hand to see many kids shoot a rifle for the fist time in their life. Some of them have become life long shooters.

Anyway, in the late 1960s early 1970s, non-eley match grade rimfire ammo costs was $2.00/box of 50 maybe a bit more. Eley match was about $4.50/box. This was a major cost factor for some of the kids. And until I started shooting handguns on a regular basis a few years ago, it was rare that I would consume more than 50 rounds in any given shooting session. Now I go through several 100 without giving it a second thought.

[Article10]

$0.04 a round will not happen..those days are gone...prices to distributors is higher than that.... $0.05 to $0.0475 is possible.... But it will be a bit...

The number of people enjoying a day at the range is very high compared to 4 years ago and the .22lr is still in demand, bigly..