Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

"The First Sunspots of the Next Solar Cycle"
Behind the Black ^ | April 15, 2018 | Robert Zimmerman

Posted on 04/15/2018 11:04:45 AM PDT by Voption

In linking to my sunspot update this week, there has been a lot of speculation at the climate website WattsUpWithThat that the next solar cycle has begun...which suggested that this sunspot was the first such sunspot this cycle, was not quite accurate however. This sunspot with an opposite polarity, which decayed so quickly that it did not rate getting a sunspot number, was not the first... The grand minimum of the 1600s, dubbed the Maunder Minimum in honor of the scientist who first identified it, was a century where almost no sunspots were visible. There was no apparent solar cycle. Solar scientists today however believe that sunspots during that grand minimum continued to form, but were generally too weak to be noticeable for the astronomers at the time...


TOPICS: Astronomy; History; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: 2018; cycle; solarcycle; sun; sunspots
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-40 next last

1 posted on 04/15/2018 11:04:45 AM PDT by Voption
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Voption

2 posted on 04/15/2018 11:15:51 AM PDT by Bratch ("The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Bratch
My favorites are Woolly Rhinos!
3 posted on 04/15/2018 11:25:57 AM PDT by Reily
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Voption
(This type of stark disagreement within the solar science community is not unusual. In 2007, when they were trying to put forth a consensus prediction for the upcoming solar cycle, the community found it was strongly divided, with one half of the community calling for a weak cycle, and the other half predicting a strong cycle.)

So much for the concept of 'settled science'

4 posted on 04/15/2018 11:29:15 AM PDT by FatherofFive (Islam is EVIL and needs to be eradicated)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Reily

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uE_MpQhgtQ8


5 posted on 04/15/2018 11:42:32 AM PDT by null and void ("We don't let them have ideas. Why would we let them have guns?" ~ Joseph Stalin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: null and void

Cool!

Except I now feel as old as a Ice Age museum exhibit!


6 posted on 04/15/2018 11:45:15 AM PDT by Reily
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: crz

Ping.


7 posted on 04/15/2018 11:52:55 AM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Voption

Can anyone boil this down to what we can expect as a result?


8 posted on 04/15/2018 12:01:36 PM PDT by Jim 0216
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Reily

Better to feel older than a museum exhibit of the last Ice Age than to feel older than the last Ice Age...


9 posted on 04/15/2018 12:07:22 PM PDT by null and void ("We don't let them have ideas. Why would we let them have guns?" ~ Joseph Stalin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: null and void

Poorly expressed on my part - I meant a old as the dry of bones being exhibited!


10 posted on 04/15/2018 12:12:21 PM PDT by Reily
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Reily

I know... ;^)


11 posted on 04/15/2018 12:12:48 PM PDT by null and void ("We don't let them have ideas. Why would we let them have guns?" ~ Joseph Stalin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Bratch

Cycle 25 is not expected to begin until 2020 considering that the minimum for Cycle 24 occurred in 2009. Cycle 24 is the weakest in 100 years and it’s not over yet. According to a ground breaking study in 2015 (see Zharkova) using principle component analysis (PCA), there are two dynamos in the sun, one near the surface and one located deeper in the convective zone. Both dynamos travel in the same direction (CCW) but can be offset in time. When the positions of the dynamos are in phase solar cycles are stronger, out-of-phase, weaker. This study shows that the two dynamos are approaching the largest out-of-phase position (largest offset). In the past when this out-of-phase position occurred there was a period of 30-60 years of cooling. The prediction for the sun is that cycle 25 will be weaker than 24 as the sun enters into a period of hibernation and as a consequence, cooler surface temperatures. The correlation between weak solar minimums and an increase in penetrating cosmic rays as condensation nuclei (more clouds) adds to the cooling effect (see Svensmark). This prediction does not mean that the Earth will enter into another Maunder minimum or a subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA). But the period of warming enjoyed in the last 30 years should be replaced by a period of slight cooling.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Looks very quiet to me. The day-glow pirate takes a nap.
https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_igr/1024/latest.html

-Frank


12 posted on 04/15/2018 12:14:26 PM PDT by thepoodlebites (and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Bratch
Irish Elk (Megaloceros)

13 posted on 04/15/2018 12:18:32 PM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Jim 0216

Can anyone boil this down to what we can expect as a result?

Sure. Buy heating fuel stocks and move to a warm clime ...


14 posted on 04/15/2018 12:21:27 PM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: PIF

That’s a lot of venison.


15 posted on 04/15/2018 12:35:03 PM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Voption

Just gives the freaks another reason to blame you and me for some bullkrappola warming....

Only interested in the 10.7cm flux and SSN.


16 posted on 04/15/2018 12:37:46 PM PDT by wxgesr (I wanna be the first person to surf on another planet....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DuncanWaring

Yes. Saw this earlier


17 posted on 04/15/2018 12:49:32 PM PDT by crz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: DuncanWaring

Watch what is going on in the northern USA and Canada today.

Next week they are saying another one on the way.

Buddy near Green Bay says they got over 10 inches and another 12 predicted for today and tonight.

Some places are looking to get over 3 feet.

Now when I lived around Munising Michigan. We had one come at the last Sat of April. Had about 36 inches in that one, but, thats the northern UP and that is not unusual. Never had a summer that year-abt 1980 or so. The skidoo factory was out on the snow on a grass air strip testing their new snow machines that year in mid June. In abt 1991, we had 24 inches or so on Mothers day.
I have seen Nor Easters off from Lake Michigan in eastern Wisconsin that plunked down over 30 inches in early March. But, within a couple days it was up to the 70s and the whole works melted..and flooded.
I have NEVER seen snow like this, at this time in spring that far south.
This year its sending storm after storm into that region.


18 posted on 04/15/2018 1:01:43 PM PDT by crz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: PIF

Meaning sunspots or a “solar cycle” cause global cooling?


19 posted on 04/15/2018 1:02:58 PM PDT by Jim 0216
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Jim 0216

Summary - “Lack of sunspots” is in indication of conditions leading to cooling.


20 posted on 04/15/2018 1:16:14 PM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-40 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson