Posted on 04/15/2018 11:04:45 AM PDT by Voption
In linking to my sunspot update this week, there has been a lot of speculation at the climate website WattsUpWithThat that the next solar cycle has begun...which suggested that this sunspot was the first such sunspot this cycle, was not quite accurate however. This sunspot with an opposite polarity, which decayed so quickly that it did not rate getting a sunspot number, was not the first... The grand minimum of the 1600s, dubbed the Maunder Minimum in honor of the scientist who first identified it, was a century where almost no sunspots were visible. There was no apparent solar cycle. Solar scientists today however believe that sunspots during that grand minimum continued to form, but were generally too weak to be noticeable for the astronomers at the time...
So much for the concept of 'settled science'
Cool!
Except I now feel as old as a Ice Age museum exhibit!
Ping.
Can anyone boil this down to what we can expect as a result?
Better to feel older than a museum exhibit of the last Ice Age than to feel older than the last Ice Age...
Poorly expressed on my part - I meant a old as the dry of bones being exhibited!
I know... ;^)
Cycle 25 is not expected to begin until 2020 considering that the minimum for Cycle 24 occurred in 2009. Cycle 24 is the weakest in 100 years and it’s not over yet. According to a ground breaking study in 2015 (see Zharkova) using principle component analysis (PCA), there are two dynamos in the sun, one near the surface and one located deeper in the convective zone. Both dynamos travel in the same direction (CCW) but can be offset in time. When the positions of the dynamos are in phase solar cycles are stronger, out-of-phase, weaker. This study shows that the two dynamos are approaching the largest out-of-phase position (largest offset). In the past when this out-of-phase position occurred there was a period of 30-60 years of cooling. The prediction for the sun is that cycle 25 will be weaker than 24 as the sun enters into a period of hibernation and as a consequence, cooler surface temperatures. The correlation between weak solar minimums and an increase in penetrating cosmic rays as condensation nuclei (more clouds) adds to the cooling effect (see Svensmark). This prediction does not mean that the Earth will enter into another Maunder minimum or a subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA). But the period of warming enjoyed in the last 30 years should be replaced by a period of slight cooling.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
Looks very quiet to me. The day-glow pirate takes a nap.
https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_igr/1024/latest.html
-Frank
Can anyone boil this down to what we can expect as a result?
—
Sure. Buy heating fuel stocks and move to a warm clime ...
That’s a lot of venison.
Just gives the freaks another reason to blame you and me for some bullkrappola warming....
Only interested in the 10.7cm flux and SSN.
Yes. Saw this earlier
Watch what is going on in the northern USA and Canada today.
Next week they are saying another one on the way.
Buddy near Green Bay says they got over 10 inches and another 12 predicted for today and tonight.
Some places are looking to get over 3 feet.
Now when I lived around Munising Michigan. We had one come at the last Sat of April. Had about 36 inches in that one, but, thats the northern UP and that is not unusual. Never had a summer that year-abt 1980 or so. The skidoo factory was out on the snow on a grass air strip testing their new snow machines that year in mid June. In abt 1991, we had 24 inches or so on Mothers day.
I have seen Nor Easters off from Lake Michigan in eastern Wisconsin that plunked down over 30 inches in early March. But, within a couple days it was up to the 70s and the whole works melted..and flooded.
I have NEVER seen snow like this, at this time in spring that far south.
This year its sending storm after storm into that region.
Meaning sunspots or a “solar cycle” cause global cooling?
Summary - “Lack of sunspots” is in indication of conditions leading to cooling.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.