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CDC Corrects Major Gun data Error Uncovered by John Lott
Gun Watch ^ | 5 August, 2018 | Dean Weingarten

Posted on 08/05/2018 5:27:47 AM PDT by marktwain


In 2015, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) made an error in the number of fatal firearms accidents that occurred in 2014. It was so large, it was obvious.

The number of fatal firearm accidents had been falling significantly. In 2014, they suddenly and inexplicably jumped by over 25%. Most of the increase was in one state, Tennessee. Dr. John Lott noticed the error in January of 2016, and brought it to the attention of the CDC. From crimeresearch.org:

In January 2016, Dr. John Lott contacted the CDC to alert them to a mistake in their numbers for 2014 on accidental gun deaths. The total was clearly a 100 larger than it actually was (the error arose because of mistakes in Tennessee’s data, and the mistake was so large it noticeably impacted the national number accidental deaths that year, raising the reported number from 486 to 586). Finally, in October 2016, the CDC acknowledged their error, but they never corrected the data on the website. This error is so large that it noticeably affects even five-year averages in accidental gun deaths. Unfortunately, since they never made the corrections, others are making mistakes when they use the data.

Now even reputable organizations such as the National Safety Council are using the erroneous data and drawing incorrect conclusions. Their new report “Injury Facts — 2017 Edition” shows that the number of fatal firearm accidents fell from 586 in 2014 to 489 in 2015 — a 17% drop. In fact, there was a slight 0.6% increase from 486 to 489. New headlines incorrectly claim that “Accidental shootings at all-time low of 489, gun sales highest ever,” when in fact 2014 was the lowest year on record and the numbers went up very slightly in 2015.
While the CDC acknowledged the error, they failed to correct it. Finally, in 2018, two and a half years after being notified, they have corrected the mistake. The error was even greater than originally thought. Instead of inflating the number of fatal firearm accidents by 100, the actual false increase was 125.

It is not clear how the error occurred. It is a good thing the CDC has finally corrected their database. As they have been made aware of the error since January of 2016, what took so long to make the correction?

Very likely, bureaucratic inertia. In October of 2016, CDC put out notice the 2014 data was bad. Users of the data were forewarned the numbers were unreliable.  In a large bureaucracy, it takes time to check and recheck everything. No one wants to admit to error in an organization whose major stock in trade is its credibility.

That the correction crossed the boundary of a presidential election is intriguing. It is not proof of institutional bias, but may be an indicator. President Obama was resolutely against an armed population. President Trump has openly supported an armed population.

The CDC has been chastised by the Congress for institutional bias against an armed population before.  The CDC buried data, or at minimum, did not promote it,  that supported claims of large numbers of defensive gun uses.

Selection bias is one of the most difficult things for researchers to fight. People  tend to see information they agree with, and ignore information they disagree with.

Researchers and bureaucrats are people. Inside the CDC, there seems to be a bias against data that supports the advantages of an armed population.

©2018 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch


TOPICS: Government; Health/Medicine; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: banglist; cdc; cprc; gunaccidents; johnlott; lott
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I did not see the CDC credit Dr. Lott with the correction.
1 posted on 08/05/2018 5:27:47 AM PDT by marktwain
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To: marktwain

Wow! This thing is hard to read!! I’ll probably agree with the conclusions, but it’s tough to wade through this writing!!


2 posted on 08/05/2018 5:42:42 AM PDT by Dr. Pritchett
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To: Dr. Pritchett; marktwain
This thing is hard to read!!

It looks like plain, simple, English to me.

What is your native language?

3 posted on 08/05/2018 5:51:56 AM PDT by PAR35
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To: marktwain

So this means my guns are even more unlikely to intentionally inflict harm to anyone, right?


4 posted on 08/05/2018 5:52:31 AM PDT by Delta 21 (Splodeyhead is the only cure for MAGAphobia)
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To: marktwain

A 25% overrun error. OOPS. D’oh!

Without a doubt it was intentional. Without a doubt.


5 posted on 08/05/2018 6:12:49 AM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (End the Mueller Gestapo now. Free the Donald.)
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To: Delta 21

Bureaucratic Statisticians hate to admit they made mistakes.


6 posted on 08/05/2018 6:17:46 AM PDT by Sasparilla ( I'm Not Tired of Winning)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

Fake Statistics! It seems as if the CDC is overlooking an increase in fakeness among the eggheads and media. I would say it almost seems like the plague - carried by ‘Rats.


7 posted on 08/05/2018 6:20:57 AM PDT by punknpuss
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To: Delta 21

My guns (and yours) are owed an apology from the CDC. My little darlings have been inconsolable since the initial data came out...crying, gnashing their teeth.

When should we expect said apology?


8 posted on 08/05/2018 6:23:43 AM PDT by moovova
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To: marktwain

How many ‘mistakes’ does the CDC make other than those that support liberal positions?

Same with ‘global warming’... all the ‘mistakes’ support liberals.


9 posted on 08/05/2018 6:25:14 AM PDT by GOPJ (NYT:"Racist Ignorant Fascist Bastard Trump Accuses Media of Bias" - freeper Lazamataz)
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To: marktwain

That the correction crossed the boundary of a presidential election is intriguing. It is not proof of institutional bias, but may be an indicator. President Obama was resolutely against an armed population. President Trump has openly supported an armed population.

...

One president is corrupt the other one isn’t.


10 posted on 08/05/2018 6:34:04 AM PDT by Moonman62 (Give a man a fish and he'll be a Democrat. Teach a man to fish and he'll be a responsible citizen.)
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To: marktwain

Interesting that data errors ALWAYS favor The Agenda.

Why do you suppose that is, hmmmm?


11 posted on 08/05/2018 6:40:49 AM PDT by null and void (Equality is important, but quality is paramount.)
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To: GOPJ

How many mistajes does tge CDC make in their reporting? Good question. Since they are scientists over there, and would not routinely make errors. They wouldnt take years to corrct tgem either.

They used to publish data on the incidence of breast cancer among pharmaceutical birth control (BCP) users. No more. They used to list BCPs as first class carcinogen - up there with cigarettes. They don’t publish this any more.

They used to publish data on the number of estimated fetal deaths resulting from BCPs. It brings the estimated abortion deaths way above the 55,000,000 since 1973. They don’t publish it any more.


12 posted on 08/05/2018 6:51:32 AM PDT by stanne
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To: stanne

The primary goal of a bureaucrat is to get to a cushy retirement. Being honest, having integrity , working without bias and even working are concepts foreign to most of these parasites.


13 posted on 08/05/2018 6:57:26 AM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp?)
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To: marktwain

Why is CDC even collecting gun-related data? Guns are not a DISEASE. The data needs to be collected but best by who or whom?


14 posted on 08/05/2018 8:08:51 AM PDT by Reno89519 (No Amnesty! No Catch-and-Release! Just Say No to All Illegal Aliens! Arrest & Deport!y)
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To: marktwain
Hmmm, do such "errors" occur that might lower the rate per 100,000?

What are the CDC's protocols for quality control and also for data corrections?

15 posted on 08/05/2018 8:36:47 AM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in-never, never,never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. Winston Churchill)
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To: marktwain

Don’t worry. They’ve understated the dangerous infectious diseases the
sub saharan migrant/vagrant population is introducing here by 25% to
even it up.


16 posted on 08/05/2018 8:43:11 AM PDT by Palio di Siena
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

Out of work Global Warming scientists transferred to CDC


17 posted on 08/05/2018 8:54:52 AM PDT by Cold Heart
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To: marktwain

Firearms are not some type of disease. The CDC should not be researching or investigating firearms.

I am really upset that I have watched over the past few decades all sorts of things from mental illness, alcohol and drug addiction, to firearms being classified as diseases. This is the attempt to get citizens to believe the people involved have no choice, like catching a cold, so they can blame someone or something else for their problems while continuing their destructive behavior.

It also allows for doctors to put their noses into areas, such as politics, where they don’t belong and are mostly not trained.


18 posted on 08/05/2018 9:01:20 AM PDT by OldMissileer (Atlas, Titan, Minuteman, PK. Winners of the Cold War)
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To: marktwain

“It is not clear how the error occurred.”

Easy. Obama was president. Everything was corrupted.


19 posted on 08/05/2018 9:19:41 AM PDT by Revel
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To: Dr. Pritchett

“Wow! This thing is hard to read!! I’ll probably agree with the conclusions, but it’s tough to wade through this writing!!”

No kidding, then I looked at the author. Dean Weingarten commits another felony for poor communication skills. Wonder what he did before he decided he was a writer.


20 posted on 08/05/2018 4:52:02 PM PDT by School of Rational Thought
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