Skip to comments.What Typhoon? (Vanity)
Posted on 09/09/2018 9:28:53 PM PDT by Fai Mao
So, this past week the Guam government and the National Weather Service warned us about the monster typhoon of all monster typhoons. "Prepare to die! We're gonna have 250mph winds! Your house will be picked up by the wind and be blown all the way to Malaysia! It'll be a horrible death!"
It turns out they shouldn't have even canceled school. What a massively wrong prediction. There is no cat-5 typhoon making a direct hit on the island. There is a tropical storm passing to the north of the island. We'll get 45 mph winds and 4 to 5 inches of rain.
I feel cheated somehow.
Just thank God and go about your day.
Do you detect a possible tilt on the island? Be ready to cross to the other side.
Be happy. My first typhoon was Vera in September 1959 that left our house split in two by a tree and severe water damage. We rode it out in one bedroom with blankets on the doors and windows. It was the most severe typhoon that hit Japan in the modern era.
I was there when the changeover happened in 1987. AFN Guam ( radio ) and the weather squadron closed at about the same time. Responsibility for typhoon conditions switched to GovGuam. We went from getting live reports from the WC-130s to getting prep warnings 24-48 hours behind the military. GovGuam and local radio was the made the official source for typhoon warnings up till now.
I always say that if the news headlines screamed,
“World Ends Tomorrow!”
the Guam paper’s headline would be,
“GovGuam Asks For More Money From The US Government Because The World Ends Tomorrow!”
I’ve been through several typhoons, 8 to 10 of them. This was different. The forecast was for the strongest typhoon in 20 years. The forecasters really missed this one. The island is closed down for a missed forecast. It cost Guam millions in canceled flights and lost tourist revenue
“I always say that if the news headlines screamed,
World Ends Tomorrow!
the Guam papers headline would be,
GovGuam Asks For More Money From The US Government Because The World Ends Tomorrow!
That’s so Guam!
What can we say, but that forecasting is inexact. Storms don’t always take the predicted path. The predicted path can’t be predicted with pinpoint accuracy in the first place.
When they are predicting a once in a generation category 5 storm on Sunday evening with possible winds in excess of 170mphand Monday it comes in as a minimal typhoon/large tropical storm I think there is a complaint in there. There is a great deal of difference in the preparation required the two storms. We get probably 3 or 4 low level typhoons a year. They just missed this one badly. Kid’s were outside playing in the rain.
Don’t misunderstand, I’m glad they did. But, if they can’t do better than that somebody needs a different job
So fake announcements from the government in papers and on the radio?
Obviously you have never been through a severe storm. Cheated? No, blessed. Hurricane/Typhoon predicting is in no way accurate, though they have become somewhat better at it.
when I lived in FL, they overhyped a lot of hurricanes. Brought in good ratings for the news I guess. Sold a lot of fuel, plywood, food and water. (fist fights over bread)
They get people 60-70 miles inland, with no trees in their yard, boarding up their house.
Might be that way with this Florence. Been talking about it for days and it’s still a business week out.
No, but at least one newspaper printed it.
And the government announced they are watching a storm in our “ area of concern”.
We are inland and have been hit by typhoons. They often change course or strengthened unexpectedly. Warnings are a heads up to prepare for the worst...
Update: Our news is now showing a typhoon that hit Guam. Are you okay?
And it’s due to hit us this weekend.
It came 4 hours late. At the time of the predicted closest approach, it was not even raining. People thought it had missed us and went out to dinner.
It was a very minor typhoon. It blew down my papaya plants and killed some flowers. We have a typhoon, tsunami, and earthquake proof house with ceramic floors and reinforced concrete walls and roof. The power was out for about 24 hours
Other than that there were no big issues.
I am somewhat upset at the forecasters however because we were being told up until Sunday afternoon that this typhoon would have 250 mph winds and kill 100’s. They created quite a bit of panic. It was a minimal typhoon. They should not miss a prediction by that amount or the closest approach time
it’s not just the winds, but the rain and storm surge. We live inland, but often the rivers flood, especially with run off from the mountains north of here, and when they have to open the irrigation canals to prevent the dams from failing.
Our house is also concrete, and on high ground and we have our own water pump and generator (actually two: A large one and a small backup one). We had ten days without electricity and water after one large typhoon, and all the neighbors came here to fill up water jugs and to recharge their cellphones.
but bad predictions can be dangerous:
another time, we almost lost our granddaughter who went to a concert in Manila, since the small typhoon was predicted to be south of Manila... it changed course, and so halfway home later that night, the high bridge was covered with water, so they stopped at a 7-11 type grocery store that was on high ground. Alas, it wasn’t high enough: After two hours, the river came up, so they went into the store, and then an hour later, were forced to spend the night on the roof of the store.
thank God we had a good mature driver who knew not to try to drive over the bridge and who got her out of the car and then onto the roof on time. But she lost her computer, and the car/pickup truck cost a lot to fix.
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