Posted on 11/07/2018 5:17:22 AM PST by EyesOfTX
Today’s Campaign Update (Because The Campaign Never Ends)
This was never going to be easy. No political revolution ever progresses in a straight line. The American system – the Constitution itself – strongly agitates against rapid, radical political change of any kind.
In the first two years of the Barack Obama Administration, Americans saw rapid, radical political change and rebelled against it, turning the House over to Republicans in 2010 and then the Senate in 2014. Americans again saw rapid over the past two years, as President Donald Trump reversed about 90% of the Obama era from the history books, and reacted last night by turning the House back to the Democrats.
This is not only nothing out of the ordinary, it is exactly how the nation’s founders consciously wanted the system to work. No one on either side has to like it, but it is important to recognize this reality of the American system and work to affect change within its confines.
So, just as happened in 2010, we end up with a split decision as the voters basically send a signal to Washington, D.C. to slow down. The country writ large isn’t necessarily opposed to the general direction things have been moving, but just wants to take more time to think about things before they happen. This isn’t always a productive dynamic within the voting public, but we have no choice but to accept the verdict and move on.
In the House of Representatives, where I was hopeful that the Republicans would be able to retain a small majority, the Democrat gain will end up being around 30 net seats, perhaps a few more. In the Senate, it’s most likely going to be 55 Republicans vs. 45 Democrats/Commies for the next two years, which is exactly where I had figured we’d end up since January.
The sad part of it all is that we will now get nothing out of the House of Representatives other than hearings and subpoenas and bombastic posturing by clowns like Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff for 24 solid months. The good part of that is that those clowns and others will no doubt so disgust the voting public with their outrageous behavior that the voters will rebel again in 2020 and turn the House back over to the Republicans. We can always hope, anyway.
The 55 seat majority in the Senate (which is what it will be whenever someone wakes up and declares McSally and Rosendale the winners in their races) means that Mitch McConnell no longer has to worry about getting Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski’s squish votes on every judicial nominee. And praise the lord, fellow squishes Jeff Flake and Bob Corker will no longer be around because they retired. What a relief that is.
Another blessing is that we Texans won’t have to hear any more nonsense about Beto O’Rourke. Well, at least until January, that is, when he declares his candidacy for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination, at which point he becomes the nation’s problem child. But everyone should be grateful to Ted Cruz for at least giving us a two month break.
Speaking of breaks, what is that new noise you are hearing from your radios and television sets this morning? Why, it’s the sound of non-political commercials! Isn’t that a joyful noise? Yes, I had commercials as much as the next guy, but I have honestly missed them as the commercial breaks have been filled with nothing but negative political ads for the last two months.
In my home state of Texas, Republicans once again won every statewide election – as they have done in every cycle for the past quarter-century – but leaders of the Texas GOP will be waking up this morning with an uneasy feeling. While Governor Greg Abbot and a few other officeholders won their re-elections by the traditional double-digit margins, Cruz only prevailed against his well-funded opponent by 3% and several others, including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, saw their winning edges cut to 5%.
Yes, Irish Bob O’Rourke’s ability to pour $80 million of California/New York money into his race at the top of the ticket had a significant in races all the way up and down the ballot. But there is little question that Texas Repubs need to do some real soul-searching and find ways to broaden their appeal, particularly to middle-class suburban women and Hispanics if they want to retain their statewide dominance for the next decade or more.
Some other observations:
In conceding his very close loss to Ron DeSantis in Florida’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Gillum displayed a high degree of class and dignity that will help sustain him as a force in Florida poltics for years to come. We have not heard the last of this guy. Unfortunately, Democrat Stacey Abrams, the Democrat candidate for Governor in Georgia, can’t summon those same qualities within herself and will keep her state in turmoil despite her obvious defeat. Sad. Back in Texas, Republican Dan Crenshaw, the Purple Heart veteran who was smeared by the sick people at Saturday Night Live over the weekend, won his race and will serve in the House of Representatives for the next two years. There is still justice in this world, although you often have to look too hard to find it. It is truly gratifying that Jon Tester, the Democrat slug who smeared Admiral Ronny Jackson, is dying this long, slow political death up there in Montana this morning. Couldn’t happen to a more rotten guy. Nevada is officially a blue state now, and that is frightening. One wonders how long it will take the Democrats to completely screw up the state money printing machine that is Las Vegas. I give it a decade. Scott Walker finally, at long last, lost an election in the blue state of Wisconsin, ending one of the most amazing political success stories of modern times. We haven’t heard the last of Walker. Once again, CNN completely outclassed all other TV outlets with its election coverage. John King is without question, far and away the best election night analyst in the known universe. While Fox News was having a coffee chat session with a bunch of pundits, King and Wolf Blitzer were taking CNN’s viewers on constant whirlwind, county-by-county, sometimes precinct-by-precinct tours of myriad house, senate and gubernatorial races all over the country. I won’t turn the channel over to CNN again before 2020, but when Election Night comes around that November, I’ll make an exception. Finally, as I was wrapping this up, just a few moments ago, President Donald Trump (I never tire of typing those three glorious words) whipped this out to Twitter land:
Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump If the Democrats think they are going to waste Taxpayer Money investigating us at the House level, then we will likewise be forced to consider investigating them for all of the leaks of Classified Information, and much else, at the Senate level. Two can play that game!
7:04 AM - Nov 7, 2018 13.5K 8,171 people are talking about this Twitter Ads info and privacy If you thought the man was going to be intimidated by Speaker San Fran Nan or Bugeyes Adam Schiff, well, think again.
That is all.
Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon
Notice how many R to D flips had a Libertarian candidate to split the vote. The new D strategy is to fund a Libertarian candidate, taking votes from Rs. We would have held the House if there hadn’t been 3rd choice to split votes.
As always, you offer excellent insights and thoughtful analysis!
So enjoyed reading it.
Thank you, and God bless.
My post is for you, DB. :?)
My observations over past decades suggests otherwise, that we are approaching a tipping point. But only because we have had an increasing influx of voters from different cultures who, along with a growing number of native Americans, remain uninformed as to the promise our nation offers.
David, I think you give the typical Dem voter too much credit for being thoughtful and principled. For the majority of them, they are fueled by hate and the desire for free stuff. I don’t think this is what the Founders had in mind.
A most excellent and perceptive post.
I agree that he is overstating the sensibility and motives of American voters. I also agree that cultural and demographic changes have, and will continue to, change this country is profound (and disturbing) ways.
We are not on a good long term trajectory. Many voters are attracted to the promises of something for nothing. The thought of “free stuff” at someone else’s expense is a powerful inducement.
We are becoming a nation of Takers rather than Makers. Add identity politics to the mix and you have recipe for national decline.
Please see my #7. Similar thoughts.
Thanks!
Yep, but you said it much more eloquently than I!
That is a very old strategy.
The libertarian running for US Senate in Mont. who withdrew and supported the R still got 2-3% of the vote, which allows Tester to hang on for some days yet.
Yes, but you were more succinct and pithy than I was. :)
We are not on a good long term trajectory.
Agreed.
The concept of a tipping point raises obvious questions. For instance:
Given the complexity of our organism, is the actual point capable of measurement or identification?
Who would raise a valid alarm and would they have sufficient credible standing to motivate a response?
What response would be effective?
That is just off the top - and none of the likely answers appear attractive.
IMO, it will not be a civil war type of event, but more of an American Revolution sort of affair with a small percentage confronting a well-structured opponent.
Yes, and we now has a socialist governor in Wisconsin due to the “independent “ spoiler on the ballot.
Just great.
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