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Aramco’s Oil Disruptions Could Last Months: Analyst
Oilprice.com ^ | 09-16-2019 | Juli

Posted on 09/16/2019 3:01:32 PM PDT by bananaman22

Saudi Arabia’s disrupted oil production may last longer than originally thought, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., told Bloomberg on Monday, with full resumption of oil production perhaps not returning for weeks—or even months.

Saudi Arabia, too, is holding a more reserved position that initially thought, believing now that less than half the capacity at the Abqaiq processing plant can be restored quickly, according to Bloomberg sources that spoke on condition of anonymity. One of the longer lead-time items of the restoration are Abqaiq’s stabilization towers that separates out the dissolved gas from the crude oil—a distillation process that sweetens sour crude, if you will.

(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Politics
KEYWORDS: aramco; djibouti; energy; eritrea; hassannasrallah; hezbollah; hydrocarbons; iran; lebanon; maga; money; oil; oilproduction; opec; sudan; yemen
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1 posted on 09/16/2019 3:01:32 PM PDT by bananaman22
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To: bananaman22

Yeah sure.

What do they have mafia unions working on it?

Slower “recovery” means higher sustained prices.


2 posted on 09/16/2019 3:04:09 PM PDT by dp0622 (Bad, bad company Till the day I die.)
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To: bananaman22

Give the high quantities of crude H2S directly to the mullahs in retribution.


3 posted on 09/16/2019 3:05:30 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: bananaman22

Lol. Careful buying futures. The same was said when Saddam blew 700 Kuwaiti wells in ‘91. Pundits said it would take 3-5 years. They were out in 7 months.

Keyword here: Money. It’s how amazing things get done.


4 posted on 09/16/2019 3:09:08 PM PDT by Justa (If where you came from is so great then why aren't Floridians moving there?)
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To: dp0622

This facility has as much machinery and stainless pipe to build 10 aircraft carriers, at least.

I’m surprised they were ever talking about days to restore. It was obviously not engineers making that prediction.

Months easy.

And if 5 such facilities were hit in the future, it would be years to restore. There would very quickly be a shortage of material. And manpower with the skills.


5 posted on 09/16/2019 3:13:04 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: bananaman22
Wait, the WSJ reported the Saudi’s said it would be back on-line today.
6 posted on 09/16/2019 3:21:39 PM PDT by McGruff
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To: bananaman22

Well, if they give back the oilfields to the folks they took them from, perhaps they could be brought back online quicker.


7 posted on 09/16/2019 3:22:42 PM PDT by PAR35
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To: bananaman22

Prez says we have enough American produced oil for America.


8 posted on 09/16/2019 3:33:13 PM PDT by Vaquero ( Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: bananaman22

The barrel price of oil was up nearly $8 at one time today only to finish the day 20 cents lower than yesterday. Trump’s calm approach seems to have calmed the markets.


9 posted on 09/16/2019 3:36:05 PM PDT by Midwesterner53
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To: bananaman22

I just learned from NBC Nightly news that if average temperature in Alaska increases from 30 to 31 degrees it has increased by 1/30th.

If average temperature in the lower 48 increases from 60 to 61 it has increased by 1/60th.

Therefore the temperature in Alaska is increasing twice the rate of temperature increases down here.


10 posted on 09/16/2019 3:47:41 PM PDT by spintreebob
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To: Mariner

Mariner, you missed your calling: “Doomsayer”.

The rational fact is, Aramco has refineries all over the World and they will use them to keep their production where it has been. Put off some scheduled maintenance here, accelerate some new construction there, and before you know it, production will be greater than ever.


11 posted on 09/16/2019 3:58:32 PM PDT by Born to Conserve
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To: Born to Conserve; Mariner
The rational fact is, Aramco has refineries all over the World and they will use them to keep their production where it has been. Put off some scheduled maintenance here, accelerate some new construction there, and before you know it, production will be greater than ever.

I'm calling BS on the article too. Aramco has an incredible backup material system, standard designs and rigid documentation. The attacks were pin pricks to their resources. They can flare the gas while making repairs (which appears to be what they are doing) and I would not be surprised if gas production is back up by the end of the week.

The saying has always been, there is a right way, a wrong way and the Aramco way. If you could afford it, you would do it the Aramco way.
12 posted on 09/16/2019 4:05:38 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: bananaman22

slowing down repairs for cash flow, as if they needed any.

And people wonder why the youngsters are attracted to the Democrats.


13 posted on 09/16/2019 4:29:24 PM PDT by txnativegop (The political left, Mankinds intellectual hemlock)
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To: Midwesterner53

I really dont understand what you are trying to communicate with that sentence. Oil is up big from before the incident. Yes it had spiked higher likely due to margin calls on the shorts. It came off the highs BUT Cl has screwed over a bunch of accounts who were short .

It is nowhere near where it was at the close on Friday


14 posted on 09/16/2019 4:51:55 PM PDT by RummyChick ("Pills, money .. this city is wicked. Your best friend will kill you here." Smoove about Baltimore)
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To: Midwesterner53

Yeah well, gasoline has jumped about thirty cents per gallon today in my neck of the woods


15 posted on 09/16/2019 4:57:55 PM PDT by 38special (For real, y'all.)
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To: spintreebob

NBC forgot about absolute zero (their IQ.) Add 459.67 to those denominators.


16 posted on 09/16/2019 5:01:02 PM PDT by JohnBovenmyer (waiting for the tweets to hatch)
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To: Born to Conserve; PA Engineer

“The rational fact is, Aramco has refineries all over the World and they will use them to keep their production where it has been. Put off some scheduled maintenance here, accelerate some new construction there, and before you know it, production will be greater than ever.”

If you fellas had read my entire post you would have seen my contention was that widespread such attacks, spread to the Saudis, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE etc. would shut down oil production in the gulf. Especially if shipping is also squeezed.

That’s not doom saying. It’s a fact.

On the issue of Aramco getting this facility back online...

Of course they will, absent ANOTHER attack. They are very, very good when it comes to paying for whatever resource is necessary.

All such facilities are extremely vulnerable. Whether in SA, the other Gulf states...or Houston.

But the idea you can repair a well hit facility like this, some of which burned to the ground, in a matter of days is ludicrous.

Nearly as much as the idea the world (and Aramco) can up production 5.7 million bbl/day in any measure less than a year...or more.

They are very, very big with thousands of interconnected processes and individual functions. And the materials on that scale, while probably available for this singular hit, could be weeks away by ship, at best.

What is your predicted month/year they will replace that 5.7 million bbl/day?


17 posted on 09/16/2019 5:30:48 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: bananaman22

Yeah, we know, any excuse to raise the price at the pump. Saudi oil amounts to a piddly 5% of our oil usage.


18 posted on 09/16/2019 5:52:56 PM PDT by bgill
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To: Mariner
What is your predicted month/year they will replace that 5.7 million bbl/day?

They can flare that gas at the GOSPs like they use to do. The oil was unaffected. These were just 2 GOSPs out of eight in these fields. There are also many other fields, GOSPs, and gas plants. Kursaniyah, Uthmaniyah...

Everything in Aramco is standardized. I can put you in Khurais GOSP 2 and then take you to Khurais GOSP 3. You would have a hard time telling the difference. These were pin pricks compared to the facilities they were in as well as the number of plants in Kingdom. Wells, gathering lines, production headers, pipelines ... were not touched.

The Saudis lacked imagination and let their guard down. To do real damage would take MOABs and carpet bombing. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a steep uptick in beheadings over the next month, specifically of people from Hofuf. Production will be normalized long before the last head drops.
19 posted on 09/16/2019 6:01:38 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: bananaman22

Just setting the stage for us to accept higher prices, just when they were going down.

I knew something would be happening to make an excuse to raise prices.


20 posted on 09/16/2019 6:08:43 PM PDT by metmom ( ...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith...)
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