Coronavirus in Georgia and Florida: Why No Spikes As States Reopen?

Powerline Blog ^ | 05/18/2020 | John Hinderaker

[SeekAndFind]

This morning on the Sunday talk shows, Alex Azar pointed out that in states that have reopened ahead of the others, like Florida and Georgia, there has not been an increase in COVID cases and deaths:

“We are seeing that in places that are opening, we’re not seeing this spike in cases,” Azar said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “We still see spikes in some areas that are, in fact, closed.”

However, Azar said identifying and reporting new cases takes time. …

“It’s still early days,” Azar cautioned in an interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation.” He said data will take some time to come in from states that reopened early such as Georgia and Florida.

I find this puzzling. I have taken it as given that when the states’ stay-home orders are finally withdrawn, the Wuhan virus will begin spreading more rapidly, manifested by more people getting the disease and a tiny percentage of them dying. This follows from the assumption that the states’ drastic shutdown orders have, to some degree, slowed the disease’s spread.

My problem with the shutdown orders wasn’t that they couldn’t slow the rate of infection; I assumed they did. My argument has been that 1) the cost of the shutdown orders in human sickness, death, poverty and misery is far too high for any marginal benefit they might confer, and 2) temporarily slowing the disease’s spread is of little or no value, since the shutdowns must inevitably end, and when they do, the disease will still be there, continuing to infect people.

If the rate of infection actually fails to rise when the shutdowns end, it implies that my view of the shutdowns was too generous. If infections don’t increase, it suggests–proves, arguably–that the shutdowns were absolutely useless, as they failed even to slow the spread of the Wuhan virus.

So what is going on here? Glenn Reynolds says, “It’s looking like this is going to turn out to be a seasonal virus that will fade away over the summer.” And might come back in the fall. Perhaps that is right; the weather is certainly warm in Georgia and Florida. Also in Texas, which is rapidly getting back to normal without any apparent problems.

Another relevant fact is that resuming normal business and social activity won’t significantly increase traffic in nursing homes and assisted living facilities, where a large percentage of COVID fatalities–over 80% in Minnesota, where I live–have taken place. The shutdowns were always irrelevant to nursing homes, sadly, and lifting the shutdowns will be, too.

Or maybe it will just take a few more weeks for the anticipated “spike” to show itself. That’s my guess. But if that doesn’t happen, those who have abused their positions by imposing devastating shutdowns will owe the rest of us an abject apology.

[BeauBo]

Flu season is over.

Heat and humidity suppresses the virus.

Florida and Georgia get plenty of both.

[ifinnegan]

“if that doesn’t happen, those who have abused their positions by imposing devastating shutdowns will owe the rest of us an abject apology.”

No. Even if a so-called spike happens they do.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Heat and humidity suppresses the virus.

If so, I would expect tropical countries to have less of a problem with Covid-19. Are they?

[rightwingcrazy]

Because lock downs are uncorrelated to Covid-19 cases, and are just a grotesquely expensive Kabuki Theater, participation in which is mandatory?

[Mouton]

Simple all the Typhoid Mary types seem to be arriving here now.

[mewzilla]

Bet some of it is because folks with barely there symptoms are no longer calling their docs for a test...

[crusty old prospector]

Texas is not showing much either. Spike a few days ago was from widespread testing at meat packing plants around Amarillo.

[z3n]

Listen, I’m not taking their side on this in a policy sense, but in terms of a rebound, I agree with them that it would have been a “spike”.

We were trying to flatten down the curve by starting the lockdowns/quarantine, with I agree’d with when I thought it would be more temporary, and there is a quantitatively accumulative lag to the process. The same would be true for any rebound. It’s the nature of a propagative phenomenon. So even if there is going to be a rebound, it wouldn’t happen in the first week or two. During those first few weeks, the increased new spreading (if that happens) would be picking up, and as each set of spreaders also spread, the exponential aspects of the ‘curving’ happens.

[z3n]

Gah, I meant to say that I disagree with those who said it would be a “spike”.

These are curves. It’s a phenomenon of mass propagation. They have a kind of inertia to them.

[Morpheus2009]

People sharing the same indoor air has more to do with it than heat. People get the flu even when it’s warm.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Listen, I’m not taking their side on this in a policy sense, but in terms of a rebound, I agree with them that it would have been a “spike”.

Well, the premise is if you continually lock people at home, there would be no spike.

Really? Does that guarantee no MORE deaths or infections? In NYC 66% of infections were on people who were sheltering in place.

SEE HERE:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8293417/66-New-York-coronavirus-hospitalizations-people-staying-HOME.html

REVEALED: 66% of New York state coronavirus hospitalizations are people staying at HOME and NOT essential workers - which begs question: Does lockdown even work?

[ifinnegan]

“Simple all the Typhoid Mary types seem to be arriving here now.”

Yep.

To the tune of New York New York:

Start spreadin’ disease...

[Blood of Tyrants]

Soon to be the same in most of the states south of Michigan.

[Blood of Tyrants]

India is experiencing few cases, Brazil a lot. Results vary.

[palmer]

If so, I would expect tropical countries to have less of a problem with Covid-19. Are they?

Yes. There are a few exceptions like Sao Paulo (AC), Guayaquil Ecuador (buses and brothels) and a few other large cities. Away from the cities there's not much spread.

[BeauBo]

“If so, I would expect tropical countries to have less of a problem with Covid-19. Are they?”

There was an article posted today about India - Why wasn’t it as bad as they predicted?

[BlackAdderess]

They are talking about Brazil being at 90% capacity in their hospitals, but if you look at deaths per million people they are in good shape if they can get some help with having inadequate hospital facilities. India has done well, Mexico has done well. The main problem in these places seems to be that they lack critical care beds.

[jjotto]

Tropical countries do generally report far fewer deaths and cases than more temperate countries.

It may be that most tropical countries are too poor to care, although the pattern still holds for wealthier ones, with exceptions.

[NonValueAdded]

It would also be helpful to know what percentage of the population was NOT in lockdown in those states, both legitimately “essential” workers and those out in public shopping, etc.

I’m in a service industry and have had customer contact throughout. Granted we’re taking precautions so is that enough? Knowing the infection rate for these groups should be important.